Brady Tkachuk vs Mitch Marner

[Golden_Jet]

My fav part of these threads are holding Marner accountable for only being PPG in the playoffs while ignoring Brady can't sniff the playoffs and assuming if he got there he will be a playoff GOAT.

Let us know when he gets to PPG.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

My fav part of these threads are holding Marner accountable for only being PPG in the playoffs while ignoring Brady can't sniff the playoffs and assuming if he got there he will be a playoff GOAT.

Marner is not ppg in the playoffs though

 

[Korpse]

I'm talking about xGoals for in this specific section, not share.

You claimed Tkachuk's netfront prescense would create better quality chances for his teammates that the models cannot pick up.

I showed you that this has not been the case. If it was the case, Tkachuk's teammates would be outscoring their expected goals metrics. They have not.

The discussion started with you mentioning his goal share would drop. Yes it’s likely as it’s an element that is not accounted for in xG. Your making big assumption that the models test at 100% we know that they do not. xG is a measure of individual unblocked shot attempts. Subtracting a players ixG from their on ice xG to determine their value to their linemates is so far beyond its design and an egregious misuse of stats. It’s insane.

 

[Sasso09]

Can't think of a more insecure fanbase than the Sens. Just enjoy Brady Tkachuk.

Habs and Leafs both got them beat tbh

 

[dgibb10]

The discussion started with you mentioning his goal share would drop. Yes it’s likely as it’s an element that is not accounted for in xG. Your making big assumption that the models test at 100% we know that they do not. xG is a measure of individual unblocked shot attempts. Subtracting a players ixG from their on ice xG to determine their value to their linemates is so far beyond its design and an egregious misuse of stats. It’s insane.

Blatant mischaracterization of what I've said but sure.

I claimed Brady Tkachuk is a poor finisher based on him consistently underperforming his INDIVIDUAL expected goal metrics.

I have also pointed out his struggles in terms of generating quality offensive chances this year. I have also acknowledged his excellence in this area in previous years

You then claimed the models overrate Brady Tkachuk's individual chance quality, but underrate his teammates chance quality with him based on his "netfront prescence".

So those are 2 claims.

I responded to both:

With your claim that the models are overrating his individual chance quality, I said, sure, let's go with that assumption. In that case, his chance generation is worse than I had previously thought, and his on ice xGoals share is inflated by your own admission. If a "perfect" model should value brady tkachuks chances less, then the share of quality chances ottawa gets with him on the ice is less than the current models show. Simple. He can be a better finisher and worse play driver than I previously thought if that makes you happy.

Claim B: Brady Tkachuk's netfront prescense causes these models to underrate the quality of chances of his teammates when he's on the ice.

I disproved this claim by showing, that throughout his career, Brady Tkachuk's teammates have NOT outperformed what the models say their chances should generate in terms of goals.


At no point did I ascertain Tkachuk's value to his linemates in this. I simply disproved the claim that Brady Tkachuk's netfront presence is causing expected goals models to underrate the quality of his teammates chances with him on the ice.

 

[geebster]

Im not Leafs fan and I absolutely have a lot of questions about how Marner has played when it's mattered but ... these two players aren't in the same class or tier. Marner is clearly better.

Unless you bring in contracts or a specific scenario where your team already has a lot of soft skill and needs

 

[Xspyrit]

I voted Marner since it's only for this season and Ottawa needs to make the playoffs so I'd hope that Marner creates more offense with his playmaking (+ PP ability)

Going forward or contracts included it's easily Tkachuk though

 

[HarryLime]

Tkachuk

Marner is a *****