Brady Tkachuk vs Mitch Marner

[Voight]

Can't think of a more insecure fanbase than the Sens. Just enjoy Brady Tkachuk.

The inferiority complex is strong with them.

 

[UED]

Regular season production doesn't matter, the only players in the world who are better offensively than the best defenders are McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov. Everyone else scores at around PPG or just under in the playoffs anyway. But with Marner you're paying an extra $3M for the right to have a soft player instead of one of the most physical players in the NHL. His advanced and expensive skill won't work in the playoffs when the best teams in the world actually focus on shutting him down. I would pick either Tkachuk over every winger in the world except Kucherov.

 

[dgibb10]

that the sens play a very low disciplined game both ways.

It was a counter to your original posts on this year only. But if you want to move the goalposts from what you were talking about earlier, go ahead.

It was a valid counter, being third in the league at xGA/60.
Not to mention that 5 on 5 is about 75% of every game. Nobody cares how Ottawas PP was 2 years ago and has zero to do with what you were talking about and what I replied to.
But since you’re concerned with it those PP goals place Ottawa 16th in the league.

Yes, disciplined. Discipline as in not taking penalties.

You picked the wrong post to reply to then, but I can walk you through the chain of events.

1) Initial post includes box score stats from this year.
2) I provide context stats for a more in depth look at this year rather than just basic box score stats
3) another individual asks why I only included this years stats
4) I explain why (the initial post only included this years stats)
5) that individual says previous years should be considered as well
6) I agree, so I reply regarding the time frame that he mentioned (since 22-23)

KEY POINT: AT THIS POINT, BOTH OF US ARE DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW YEARS, SPECIFICALLY 22-23 ONWARD.

You then reply to a portion of my post (about how the shitton of penalties in ottawa games have inflated stats on ottawa from 22-23 onward), with what you seem to think is a gotcha about how Ottawa has been good defensively so far this year.

I then clarify my point to you since you got confused about what I meant when I used the word disciplined.

But from the bolded part of your quote here, it seems you either didn't read the post(s), or just failed to understand. If it's the second, I'm happy to clarify any portion that confused you.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Yes, disciplined. Discipline as in not taking penalties.

You picked the wrong post to reply to then, but I can walk you through the chain of events.

1) Initial post includes box score stats from this year.
2) I provide context stats for a more in depth look at this year rather than just basic box score stats
3) another individual asks why I only included this years stats
4) I explain why (the initial post only included this years stats)
5) that individual says previous years should be considered as well
6) I agree, so I reply regarding the time frame that he mentioned (since 22-23)

KEY POINT: AT THIS POINT, BOTH OF US ARE DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW YEARS, SPECIFICALLY 22-23 ONWARD.

You then reply to a portion of my post (about how the shitton of penalties in ottawa games have inflated stats on ottawa from 22-23 onward), with what you seem to think is a gotcha about how Ottawa has been good defensively so far this year.

I then clarify my point to you since you got confused about what I meant when I used the word disciplined.

But from the bolded part of your quote here, it seems you either didn't read the post(s), or just failed to understand. If it's the second, I'm happy to clarify any portion that confused you.

Stopped reading after first few lines when realized you were just moving goalposts again.

 

[NyQuil]

See, what I say.

Just going off the last two pages on this board, I see a 'How many points is Hutson going to get?' not HUTSON OR MCAVOY PLZ PICK ME

Rent free though. Lil bro complex is intense.

See, you can’t stop talking about him.

 

[dgibb10]

Stopped reading after first few lines when realized you were just moving goalposts again.

I don't know why I bother, but let's try 1 final time.

I moved the goalposts?

Thread Starter uses THIS YEAR. I reply about THIS YEAR. Doesn't seem to be anything moved


There is then this post, asking about the previous years. (If anything this is where any goalposts have been moved).

This individual wants to talk about 22-23 onward, and so I oblige. KEY POINT: I WAS NOT THE ONE WHO WANTED TO MOVE THE CONVERSATION TO TALK ABOUT 22-23 ONWARD


And we're back to you failing to fully read a post(s) or using context clues.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I don't know why I bother, but let's try 1 final time.

I moved the goalposts?

Thread Starter uses THIS YEAR. I reply about THIS YEAR. Doesn't seem to be anything moved


There is then this post, asking about the previous years. (If anything this is where any goalposts have been moved).
View attachment 919537
This individual wants to talk about 22-23 onward, and so I oblige. KEY POINT: I WAS NOT THE ONE WHO WANTED TO MOVE THE CONVERSATION TO TALK ABOUT 22-23 ONWARD
View attachment 919539

And we're back to you failing to fully read a post(s) or using context clues.

As I addressed in my one post initially explaining it, I won’t bother repeating.
But my mistake was not multi-quoting your 2 initial posts, as I only used the last ones and not the xGA one as well ( which you alluded to, and were right).

What convo you had with kopse, has no bearing with our convo, as I never brought kopse up.

I think we can both move on, and catch up in another discussion. Cheers.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

If we had an NHL wide redraft, who would be off the board first, Tkachuk or Marner? I think most know the answer, the results so far reflect that.

Yes I’m a Sens fan, so biased for sure.

I like Marner for what it’s worth.

 

[Korpse]

Brady Tkachuk has underperformed his chance quality (by a relatively significant margin) every year of his career. But maybe finisher is a better word than shooter.

Brady Tkachuk and a lot of the other sens top guys also have their point totals boosted by the fact that the sens play a very low disciplined game both ways. Ottawa has had more PP opportunities than any other team by a pretty sizeable margin over that time.

They also take a ton of penalties.

But PP goals for show up on the stat sheet of the players. PK goals allowed don't show up on anyone's stat sheet (unless you dig deep into their PK metrics) but the goalie.

Now, I do give credit to the sens who draw more than they take (Stutzle especially), but Marner and Tkachuk have fairly similar penalty differentials (+14 vs +16) over the time span you mentioned, so it doesn't give a major edge to tkachuk in these discussions.

Brady under performing expected goals is more a symptom of the models than it is ability. I think xG models are great but they do have some blind spots. For a player like Brady who wins a lot of pucks in net front battles, models can't differentiate whether a shot is contested or not or where the goalie is on the play. He's getting a lot of contested shots off in an area of the ice that is high value but he is able those types of shots on net at a rate that others aren't.

Look i'm not arguing that Tkachuk is the choice, for me it's Marner. I just wanted to challenge a very obvious cherry picked stat becuase it was a poor use of stats. I also wnated to say Tkachuk has a shot becuase it's something I believe is an underrated part of his game.

 

[dgibb10]

Brady under performing expected goals is more a symptom of the models than it is ability. I think xG models are great but they do have some blind spots. For a player like Brady who wins a lot of pucks in net front battles, models can't differentiate whether a shot is contested or not or where the goalie is on the play. He's getting a lot of contested shots off in an area of the ice that is high value but he is able those types of shots on net at a rate that others aren't.

Look i'm not arguing that Tkachuk is the choice, for me it's Marner. I just wanted to challenge a very obvious cherry picked stat becuase it was a poor use of stats. I also wnated to say Tkachuk has a shot becuase it's something I believe is an underrated part of his game.

If the models are overrating Tkachuks chance generation that significantly you realize that would make his xGoals share worse right?

In the end, it doesn't matter what the parts are, all that matters is the end result.

If he's a good finisher generating consistently worse quality chances than the models suggest, or a bad finisher generating a lot of quality chances it doesn't make a difference to how good a hockey player he is.

(also, if you're suggesting the model overrates his chance quality, that would probably suggest he's even WORSE than Sub 40% this year)

 

[Nogatco Rd]

I don't know why I bother, but let's try 1 final time.

I moved the goalposts?

Thread Starter uses THIS YEAR. I reply about THIS YEAR. Doesn't seem to be anything moved


There is then this post, asking about the previous years. (If anything this is where any goalposts have been moved).
View attachment 919537
This individual wants to talk about 22-23 onward, and so I oblige. KEY POINT: I WAS NOT THE ONE WHO WANTED TO MOVE THE CONVERSATION TO TALK ABOUT 22-23 ONWARD
View attachment 919539

And we're back to you failing to fully read a post(s) or using context clues.

Fun thread

 

[Strangle]

marner might have more polls on hfboards than any other active player.

Doesn’t matter who he is up against, he has never won one lol

He even lost a poll to svechnikov

Hfboards doesn’t know anything about the maple leafs or their players.

Marner is 10x the player tkachuk is

Here is the head-to-head for those interested

Brady Tkachuk vs. Mitch Marner: Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com

Compare Players: Check out the head-to-head stats of Brady Tkachuk and Mitch Marner including their awards, honors, championships, playoff and regular season stats, and much more on Stathead.com

stathead.com

 

[Korpse]

If the models are overrating Tkachuks chance generation that significantly you realize that would make his xGoals share worse right?

In the end, it doesn't matter what the parts are, all that matters is the end result.

If he's a good finisher generating consistently worse quality chances than the models suggest, or a bad finisher generating a lot of quality chances it doesn't make a difference to how good a hockey player he is.

(also, if you're suggesting the model overrates his chance quality, that would probably suggest he's even WORSE than Sub 40% this year)

Sure. It also undervalues his net front presence in terms of shots for other players on the ice after all xG doesn’t factor in a net front presence at all. It probably balances it out in terms of on ice goal share. How are you still trotting out a 5 game sample size.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Jesus Christ, this used to be annually.

Now it's quarterly.

 

[dgibb10]

Sure. It also undervalues his net front presence in terms of shots for other players on the ice after all xG doesn’t factor in a net front presence at all. It probably balances it out in terms of on ice goal share. How are you still trotting out a 5 game sample size.

Except the senators have underperformed their expected goal metrics by 60 goals with him on the ice over his careers (now, granted all of that 60 goal underperformance is Tkachuk himself), but the point remains.

The rest of the sens have shot exactly at expectation over his career with him on the ice.

 

[Strangle]

Sure. It also undervalues his net front presence in terms of shots for other players on the ice after all xG doesn’t factor in a net front presence at all. It probably balances it out in terms of on ice goal share. How are you still trotting out a 5 game sample size.

He’s a -58, Marner is a +110

Tkachuk would have to score over 2.0 ppg over his next 140 games to catch Marner in points, and that would only be possible if Marner retired tomorrow.

Marner has 9 short handed goals

Tkachuk? Has he ever played while short handed?

Marner has never missed the playoffs

Tkachuk has never made the playoffs

Tkachuk averages 65 points per 82

Marner averages 90+ per 82

It’s not at all remotely close

 

[Korpse]

He’s a -58, Marner is a +110

Tkachuk would have to score over 2.0 ppg over his next 140 games to catch Marner in points, and that would only be possible if Marner retired tomorrow.

Marner has 9 short handed goals

Tkachuk? Has he ever played while short handed?

Marner has never missed the playoffs

Tkachuk has never made the playoffs

Tkachuk averages 65 points per 82

Marner averages 90+ per 82

It’s not at all remotely close

Holy shit. I voted for marner. We were having a discussion about xG more than anything.

 

[Korpse]

Except the senators have underperformed their expected goal metrics by 60 goals with him on the ice over his careers (now, granted all of that 60 goal underperformance is Tkachuk himself), but the point remains.

The rest of the sens have shot exactly at expectation over his career with him on the ice.

Are you speaking about all situations, while using goal share? Also this is the most bizarre use of xG. xG has limitations on an individual shot basis, it's not desgined to be used to come to the conclusion you are reaching.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Brady Tkachuk, the greatest playoff performer that never played a playoff game.

 

[HockeyVirus]

My fav part of these threads are holding Marner accountable for only being PPG in the playoffs while ignoring Brady can't sniff the playoffs and assuming if he got there he will be a playoff GOAT.

 

[WillTheThrill]

Brady, too bad he'll never see the playoffs in Ottawa

 

[dgibb10]

Are you speaking about all situations, while using goal share? Also this is the most bizarre use of xG. xG has limitations on an individual shot basis, it's not desgined to be used to come to the conclusion you are reaching.

I'm talking about xGoals for in this specific section, not share.

You claimed Tkachuk's netfront prescense would create better quality chances for his teammates that the models cannot pick up.

I showed you that this has not been the case. If it was the case, Tkachuk's teammates would be outscoring their expected goals metrics. They have not.

 

[Golden_Jet]

My fav part of these threads are holding Marner accountable for only being PPG in the playoffs while ignoring Brady can't sniff the playoffs and assuming if he got there he will be a playoff GOAT.

Let us know when he gets to PPG.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

My fav part of these threads are holding Marner accountable for only being PPG in the playoffs while ignoring Brady can't sniff the playoffs and assuming if he got there he will be a playoff GOAT.

Marner is not ppg in the playoffs though

 

[Korpse]

I'm talking about xGoals for in this specific section, not share.

You claimed Tkachuk's netfront prescense would create better quality chances for his teammates that the models cannot pick up.

I showed you that this has not been the case. If it was the case, Tkachuk's teammates would be outscoring their expected goals metrics. They have not.

The discussion started with you mentioning his goal share would drop. Yes it’s likely as it’s an element that is not accounted for in xG. Your making big assumption that the models test at 100% we know that they do not. xG is a measure of individual unblocked shot attempts. Subtracting a players ixG from their on ice xG to determine their value to their linemates is so far beyond its design and an egregious misuse of stats. It’s insane.