Athletic Has Leafs as 3rd best in contract Values

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Some interesting replies in here.

The strangest is the conspiracy theory that the model Dom has been working on for years is somehow set up to show the Leafs in a good light right now and into the future. The model is the model.

Goaltending is the wildcard as its not included but, just looking at the players out front of the net, the Leafs have done a pretty good job considering the covid cap + the fact they signed all their big contracts just before it hit. Is there a professional sports team that was screwed by covid worse than the Leafs? Taking into account how much higher we signed the players based on a rising cap + where the cap would actually be right now, I know we could put the 10+ million extra to good use.

Kinda interesting seeing both NY teams super low on the list and both having the recent history to have been carried by goaltending which is masking just how bad their situation is. I dont even think the Rangers make the playoffs without their god mode goaltending last season and the Isles are just in a shambles as they actually had the third best goaltending last season (and 1st over the last 3 seasons) and failed to make the playoffs somehow. (hey, lets fire the other reason you guys had success despite the awful cap management right?)

I dont think some people can wrap their heads around why Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Bunting/Tavares/Kerfoot is just ludicrously better than Barzal/Palmeiri/Lee/Pageau/Bailey/Nelson/Beauvillier for just a few million more in cap.

I just hope the Leafs can finally hit on decent stable goaltending this season as having bottom ten goaltending the last 3 years and the least clutch goaltending in the playoffs is the teams achilles heel.
 
Some interesting replies in here.

The strangest is the conspiracy theory that the model Dom has been working on for years is somehow set up to show the Leafs in a good light right now and into the future. The model is the model.

Goaltending is the wildcard as its not included but, just looking at the players out front of the net, the Leafs have done a pretty good job considering the covid cap + the fact they signed all their big contracts just before it hit. Is there a professional sports team that was screwed by covid worse than the Leafs? Taking into account how much higher we signed the players based on a rising cap + where the cap would actually be right now, I know we could put the 10+ million extra to good use.

Kinda interesting seeing both NY teams super low on the list and both having the recent history to have been carried by goaltending which is masking just how bad their situation is. I dont even think the Rangers make the playoffs without their god mode goaltending last season and the Isles are just in a shambles as they actually had the third best goaltending last season (and 1st over the last 3 seasons) and failed to make the playoffs somehow. (hey, lets fire the other reason you guys had success despite the awful cap management right?)

I dont think some people can wrap their heads around why Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Bunting/Tavares/Kerfoot is just ludicrously better than Barzal/Palmeiri/Lee/Pageau/Bailey/Nelson/Beauvillier for just a few million more in cap.

I just hope the Leafs can finally hit on decent stable goaltending this season as having bottom ten goaltending the last 3 years and the least clutch goaltending in the playoffs is the teams achilles heel.
Yep. And the Leaf list has 1 guy at 30 or over (And Tavares still had 76 points in 79 games). Everyone else is 27 to 25 That Isle list has 2 guys under 30 out of 7. That's it.

The production Leaf players get for this cap hits is great.
 
Yep. And the Leaf list has 1 guy at 30 or over (And Tavares still had 76 points in 79 games). Everyone else is 27 to 25 That Isle list has 2 guys under 30 out of 7. That's it.

The production Leaf players get for this cap hits is great.
Yep. And the Leaf list has 1 guy at 30 or over (And Tavares still had 76 points in 79 games). Everyone else is 27 to 25 That Isle list has 2 guys under 30 out of 7. That's it.

The production Leaf players get for this cap hits is great.
Over the term of the very lucrative contracts what have the leafs accomplished?
 
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IMO spending 30 million on 3 forwards does not set up a team for success. 10+ million top end D, 10+ million top end center and 8 million top end goalie. This set up would be far more successful dont you think?
There's no reason that spending 30m on 3 forwards would be a barrier to success, as long as you're getting value and impact out of that cap - which we are. We don't have an available defenseman worth 10m or an available goalie worth 8m, so that would just mean we'd be overpaying players and getting less value and impact from our cap space. There's no reason to think that that would make us more successful.

We've already been able to build one of the best defensive teams in the league despite paying that money to our elite forwards, and unless you have one of a few elite goalies - which like most teams, we don't - then goaltending is not helped much if at all by spending significant money on it.
 
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There's no reason that spending 30m on 3 forwards would be a barrier to success, as long as you're getting value and impact out of that cap - which we are. We don't have an available defenseman worth 10m or an available goalie worth 8m, so that would just mean we'd be overpaying players and getting less value and impact from our cap space. There's no reason to think that that would make us more successful.

We've already been able to build one of the best defensive teams in the league despite paying that money to our elite forwards, and unless you have one of a few elite goalies - which like most teams, we don't - then goaltending is not helped much if at all by spending significant money on it.
The proof is in the pudding. Leafs have not succeeded at anything outside some regular season success. A shake up of the 3 forwards would help...Still say had Tavares not been signed the leafs would have been a team to worry about. That contract was the demise of the leafs.

Over $10 million contracts that makes sense:
Matthews, McDavid, Barkov, Doughty, Kane, Eichel

Over paid $10 million contracts:
Panarin, Marner, Tavares, Karlson, Toews, Price, Kopitar, Bobrovsky,

Some Top end value contracts under $10 million:
McAvoy, Makar, Point, Kucherov, Vasilvsky, Ovi,
 
The proof is in the pudding. Leafs have not succeeded at anything outside some regular season success. A shake up of the 3 forwards would help...Still say had Tavares not been signed the leafs would have been a team to worry about. That contract was the demise of the leafs.

Over $10 million contracts that makes sense:
Matthews, McDavid, Barkov, Doughty, Kane, Eichel

Over paid $10 million contracts:
Panarin, Marner, Tavares, Karlson, Toews, Price, Kopitar, Bobrovsky,

Some Top end value contracts under $10 million:
McAvoy, Makar, Point, Kucherov, Vasilvsky, Ovi,
Switch Eichel and Marner
 
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Switch Eichel and Marner
Had they signed between 8 and 9 they would have both been considered top end contracts under $10 million. Marner is good but way over-rated. I would take any of the top end value contracts over Marner's. No questioning those players bring much more to the success of a team regular/post season.
 
Had they signed between 8 and 9 they would have both been considered top end contracts under $10 million. Marner is good but way over-rated. I would take any of the top end value contracts over Marner's. No questioning those players bring much more to the success of a team regular/post season.
I think most would take Marner over Eichel.
 
The proof is in the pudding. Leafs have not succeeded at anything outside some regular season success. A shake up of the 3 forwards would help...Still say had Tavares not been signed the leafs would have been a team to worry about. That contract was the demise of the leafs.

Over $10 million contracts that makes sense:
Matthews, McDavid, Barkov, Doughty, Kane, Eichel

Over paid $10 million contracts:
Panarin, Marner, Tavares, Karlson, Toews, Price, Kopitar, Bobrovsky,

Some Top end value contracts under $10 million:
McAvoy, Makar, Point, Kucherov, Vasilvsky, Ovi,
How does Eichel's contract make sense? He's almost 26 and 0 playoff games played.He's had 1 elite regular season. Marner needs to be switched with him. And not sure Doughty's does now,
 
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The proof is in the pudding. Leafs have not succeeded at anything outside some regular season success.
The proof is not in the pudding. Just because we've lost a few series, that doesn't mean we've lost a few series because of cap allocation. You're applying that causation based on nothing because you want it to be true. Teams win and lose all the time with all sorts of different cap allocations, builds, playstyles, etc. The most important thing is getting value from your cap expenditure, and we do, which is why we're one of the best teams in the league.
A shake up of the 3 forwards would help...
It wouldn't though. Matthews/Marner, despite being high paid, bring some of the most surplus value on the team, and are a massive part of why we are so good. The overwhelmingly most likely outcome of trading them is us getting worse in the present and future. Tavares brings a lesser surplus value than Matthews/Marner, but he is still a positive and still brings significant impact to our team. And regardless of what you personally think of him, the fact is he is going nowhere. He has a NMC and he wants to be here. He's not going to uproot himself and his family from the place he took less money and abuse to come to, just because some Leafs fans get antsy and blame him for the realities of an unexpected global pandemic-induced flat cap.

There is no realistic scenario where we can move out one of the big 3 and make us better.
Still say had Tavares not been signed the leafs would have been a team to worry about.
We're a team to worry about with Tavares. We have one of the best chances at a cup this year.
Over $10 million contracts that makes sense:
Matthews, McDavid, Barkov, Doughty, Kane, Eichel

Over paid $10 million contracts:
Panarin, Marner, Tavares, Karlson, Toews, Price, Kopitar, Bobrovsky,

Some Top end value contracts under $10 million:
McAvoy, Makar, Point, Kucherov, Vasilvsky, Ovi,
This is all over the place and wrong. You have players in the "over 10m that make sense" and "top end value contracts under 10m" that are clear negatives relative to their cap hits, and you have players in the "overpaid 10m contracts" that are clear positives relative to their cap hits. Matthews//Marner bring more value and impact relative to their cap hits than most players here, and any that bring more than them aren't being traded, so they're irrelevant to what we can do. This isn't a grocery store where you can just go to the 10m+ defenseman and 8m+ goaltender aisles and pick one up that brings equivalent or even similar surplus value to Matthews/Marner.
 
The first $10mil contract started in 2015.

Since then:

Chicago has had 7 seasons without a series win

LA has 6 seasons with 0 series wins

Leafs have had 4 with 0 wins

Oilers have had 4 and only 2 rounds won

Habs have 4 and 3 wins

Sabres had 3 and 0 wins

Sharks are 3 and 0 wins

Florida has 3 and 1 win

Rangers are 3 and 2 wins

Vegas 1 and 0 wins

Totals to 38 seasons and only 8 series' won.

The only teams to win at least one round had just one player making $10 mil or more. We have 3.

Also, the average contract length of the 14 players who make $10 mil or more is 7.42 years.

Ours are 7, 6 and 5.

This Dom guy must be one of the biggest dubas fan boys to try and say the Leafs have the 3rd best contract values.
 
There's no reason that spending 30m on 3 forwards would be a barrier to success, as long as you're getting value and impact out of that cap - which we are.
How many would be too many - could we have 6 forwards at over $10M each with the rest of the roster filled out at 750k a piece?
 
Had they signed between 8 and 9 they would have both been considered top end contracts under $10 million. Marner is good but way over-rated. I would take any of the top end value contracts over Marner's. No questioning those players bring much more to the success of a team regular/post season.
There is no way Eichel is better than Marner at this point

Marner is better offensively and defensively
 
The leafs core players signed post elc at the proper cap hit… but at 2/3 year shorter terms. This article doesn’t take that into account. Im fine with all those Aav’s at 8 years, and at that term it would closer align with direct comparables.

As a result of those unprecedented dramatic overpayments, the leafs can’t waste money on risks/Ufa’s because they have to think about re-signing those players in 2-3 years instead of re-signing them 4-5 years.

That means we have very cheap players on short term contracts filling the lineup, no risks (so we rank high in lists like this) and as a result of that lack of depth we lose in the first round every year. Once to the (LOL) 24th placed team.
 
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How many would be too many - could we have 6 forwards at over $10M each with the rest of the roster filled out at 750k a piece?
We're probably at our limit now based on current cap and stagnation. If you had six 10m+ forwards, you'd have difficulty filling out an effective team (especially on defense - I don't know where you'd get a bunch of top pairing or top-4 defensemen for 750k), and there isn't really enough space on the roster or ice time to go around to get full value out of 6 elite forwards.
 
Nylander is arguably the best contract on the team!
Leafs could get 8.75 giordanos for the same price if we are going to play these dumb games. We could fill the defensive roster and have money back. 5.6mm for the whole defensive core. That and the excess cap would fill the cap by over 18mm and allow them to sign McDavid easily. Dubas is so dumb!
 
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How many would be too many - could we have 6 forwards at over $10M each with the rest of the roster filled out at 750k a piece?
What they have is the perfect amount. Of course if they had more or less that would also be the perfect amount.
 

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