Athletic Has Leafs as 3rd best in contract Values

[Stamkos4life]

The leafs core players signed post elc at the proper cap hit… but at 2/3 year shorter terms. This article doesn’t take that into account. Im fine with all those Aav’s at 8 years, and at that term it would closer align with direct comparables.

As a result of those unprecedented dramatic overpayments, the leafs can’t waste money on risks/Ufa’s because they have to think about re-signing those players in 2-3 years instead of re-signing them 4-5 years.

That means we have very cheap players on short term contracts filling the lineup, no risks (so we rank high in lists like this) and as a result of that lack of depth we lose in the first round every year. Once to the (LOL) 24th placed team.

The funny thing is that both you and I knew these contacts were bad right when they were signed. We could both see how difficult it would be to ice a competitive team with $30 mil going to 3 forwards.

Fast forward four years and we have been proven correct beyond a shadow of a doubt. I mean, how many more first round losses do we need?

 

[NoTeeth]

Dude, at some (point) you have to stop making excuses for a team that can't win in the first round.

I agree. I just find this idea of giving up on this core rather silly.

The funny thing is that both you and I knew these contacts were bad right when they were signed. We could both see how difficult it would be to ice a competitive team with $30 mil going to 3 forwards.

Fast forward four years and we have been proven correct beyond a shadow of a doubt. I mean, how many more first round losses do we need?

The fact that the dubas fan boys still try to say they are good contracts is insane! The delusion is just that powerful.

Actually, you are removing Nylander but everyone screamed that was millions overpaid. Dubas has been proven right on that one.

 

[notbias]

The funny thing is that both you and I knew these contacts were bad right when they were signed. We could both see how difficult it would be to ice a competitive team with $30 mil going to 3 forwards.

Fast forward four years and we have been proven correct beyond a shadow of a doubt. I mean, how many more first round losses do we need?

The fact that the dubas fan boys still try to say they are good contracts is insane! The delusion is just that powerful.

We should trade Marner and Matthews, problem solved. They have a lot of value even on these terrible contracts.

Our team will surely get better.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Actually, you are removing Nylander but everyone screamed that was millions overpaid. Dubas has been proven right on that one.

Dubas guessed wrong on Nylander and potentially cost us another season of winning the cup having Nylander in fat-Thor mode after missing half the season instead of point per game mode.

We could have had Nylander for 8x8 or a number slightly above 8 (8.5 was his starting offer so would have came under that after negotiations), squeeze out ALL of his prime years to the point if he walks at year 9 we can sleep better at night knowing he's on the wrong side of 29, so it's okay.


The people who thought Nylander was overpaid are dead wrong and have been proven to be dead wrong beyond any doubt.

Dubas has been proven dead wrong making Nylander sit and then turning the 8 years into 6. The 8 year deal would have brought massive ridicule to him but time would have proven him correct if he did it.

If Dubas really wants to do something useful moving forward, he needs to convince Marner that he's not Matthews and never will be and make Marner sit instead if he continues to think otherwise. Marners retirement contract in a couple years should be an 8 year deal of what he's making right now barring some consecutive 40 goal 100 point seasons and massive hardware that hopefully includes a conn smythe or stanley cup. In that case give him 20 mil a year for all I care.

 

[NoTeeth]

We should trade Marner and Matthews, problem solved. They have a lot of value even on these terrible contracts.

Our team will surely get better.

Interesting thing is the same people wanted Nylander with his value at it's lowest at age 22 for litteraly any "Top 4 D". Remember Montour and Pesce talk?
What GM trades superstars in their primes? The very few examples never work out. Last one was Taylor Hall. Did that work out for the OIilers?
Not trading Nylander looks very smart by Dubas. So many wanted him thrown out the door.
And marner just turned 25 and had 97 points in 72 games. He can win an Art Ross. WE are trading him because he really should be making 1-1.5 less? What? Bunting, Kampf, Nylander, Kerfoot should also be making more.

Dubas guessed wrong on Nylander and potentially cost us another season of winning the cup having Nylander in fat-Thor mode after missing half the season instead of point per game mode.

We could have had Nylander for 8x8 or a number slightly above 8 (8.5 was his starting offer so would have came under that after negotiations), squeeze out ALL of his prime years to the point if he walks at year 9 we can sleep better at night knowing he's on the wrong side of 29, so it's okay.


The people who thought Nylander was overpaid are dead wrong and have been proven to be dead wrong beyond any doubt.

Dubas has been proven dead wrong making Nylander sit and then turning the 8 years into 6. The 8 year deal would have brought massive ridicule to him but time would have proven him correct if he did it.

If Dubas really wants to do something useful moving forward, he needs to convince Marner that he's not Matthews and never will be and make Marner sit instead if he continues to think otherwise. Marners retirement contract in a couple years should be an 8 year deal of what he's making right now barring some consecutive 40 goal 100 point seasons and massive hardware that hopefully includes a conn smythe or stanley cup. In that case give him 20 mil a year for all I care.

"We could have"-How do you know?

 

[NoTeeth]

The two most talented teams just met in the finals and people think trading our young 2 way superstar for more "Balance" is the way to go. Get LESS talented after Coloarado and Tampa just met in the finals...
I am supposed tp believe 2 5 million grinders are better than a superstar in his prime? When did Tampa and Colorado do that?

 

[andora]

Interesting thing is the same people wanted Nylander with his value at it's lowest at age 22 for litteraly any "Top 4 D". Remember Montour and Pesce talk?
What GM trades superstars in their primes? The very few examples never work out. Last one was Taylor Hall. Did that work out for the OIilers?
Not trading Nylander looks very smart by Dubas. So many wanted him thrown out the door.


"We could have"-How do you know?

The pesce deal and wbatever other pieces there would have altered everything

You have pesce instead of muzzin and have that first and grundstrom. Pesce is that elusive RHD and no muzzin keeps the lhd side flexible for sandin

Reilly/pesce
Brodie/liljegren
Sandin/giordano

Hindsight can be fun

 

[NoTeeth]

The pesce deal and wbatever other pieces there would have altered everything

You have pesce instead of muzzin and have that first and grundstrom. Pesce is that elusive RHD and no muzzin keeps the lhd side flexible for sandin

Reilly/pesce
Brodie/liljegren
Sandin/giordano

Hindsight can be fun

Oh please. You do not move Nylander for Bret Pesce. Terrible trade. And people also wanted Brandon Montour as well LOL
If I am moving Nylander I want a TON back. Just like if an 80 point player with 8 goals, 15 points last 14 games in the playoffs was on say another team and would be viewed as so valuable.

 

[andora]

Oh please. You do not move Nylander for Bret Pesce. Terrible trade. And people also wanted Brandon Montour as well LOL
If I am moving Nylander I want a TON back. Just like if an 80 point player with 8 goals, 15 points last 14 games in the playoffs was on say another team and would be viewed as so valuable.

I didnt say i would have first of all

But why would it have been terrible at that time.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

The funny thing is that both you and I knew these contacts were bad right when they were signed. We could both see how difficult it would be to ice a competitive team with $30 mil going to 3 forwards.

Fast forward four years and we have been proven correct beyond a shadow of a doubt. I mean, how many more first round losses do we need?

The fact that the dubas fan boys still try to say they are good contracts is insane! The delusion is just that powerful.

.....and if a pandemic and subsequent flat cap hadn't occurred, would you still be dislocating your shoulder?

 

[NoTeeth]

I didnt say i would have first of all

But why would it have been terrible at that time.

Terrible because you don't move a player this talented at age 22 when his value is at it's lowest. Notice Gms don't do that?
There are people here who want Mitch Marner traded now. It's ridiculous.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

"We could have"-How do you know?

All logical conclusions lead to that number I didn't think it needs to be re-visited in 2022. If you think it would have ended up higher than his starting point instead, I am curious to know why? It's not common for the initial over priced starting point to be accepted. He wanted 8 years and used Drai as the ceiling. Sure you can conveniently say it would have been Drai as a floor just to make Dubas look good but I doubt you would get a huge following there given everything we know about that situation.

Nylander was not greedy, him and his agent correctly identified his worth over 8 years. We should have took the deal and let Nylander play the full season. Hindsight has shown Nylander in mid-season form could have ended that series before it needed 7 games and we currently know those 2 extra prime years of Nylander at 8ish mil would have been amazing.

Both sides lost in my opinion. The Nylander trolls lost and Dubas lost the entire situation.

The wrong guy sit. Subtract ~1 mil from Marner, give it to Nylander to get TWO! extra years (and one extra playoffs where Nylander is actually in elite form). That's getting closer to good GM'ing.

 

[NoTeeth]

Majority RFAs aren't signing for 8 years. People have missed this. Some yes, but when Marner/Matthews/Nylander were signing most took less years than them. And Calgary paid for that decision BIG TIME with Matthew Tkachuk.
Guys like Barzal, Tkachuk, Boeser, Petterssen, Laine were taking 2-3 years.
7 million for a 3 year deal is actually really high. But people say "Only" 7 million with no context with other teams.
Brad Trelivving just walked 2 superstar 100+ point players out the door in their primes. But Dubas sucks giving Marner 10.9 per. Ok...

 

[andora]

Terrible because you don't move a player this talented at age 22 when his value is at it's lowest. Notice Gms don't do that?
There are people here who want Mitch Marner traded now. It's ridiculous.

Ok.. i am not discussing marner

Very talented 22 year old versus a very strong 23 year old defenceman

? What would have made this idea terrible. People knew back in 2018 how good pesce was and will be.. same with nylander

 

[NoTeeth]

Ok.. i am not discussing marner

Very talented 22 year old versus a very strong 23 year old defenceman

? What would have made this idea terrible. People knew back in 2018 how good pesce was and will be.. same with nylander

Is Pesce that good? I don't think so. In Toronto would he be seen as this good? What am I missing about how good this D is? And Montour LOL. Rumour has it from Jack Han that was the best D offered (Han worked for Toronto at the time).
Teams don't trade great young talent generally, Especially when they don't have to. The only ones seem to ask for a trade or the teams get themselves in such terrible cap hell(Minnesota-Fiala) they do it.

 

[andora]

Is Pesce that good? I don't think so. In Toronto would he be seen as this good? What am I missing about how good this D is? And Montour LOL. Rumour has it from Jack Han that was the best D offered (Han worked for Toronto at the time).

In my opinion yes he is that good. This is rielly and pesce over the past 5 years. He would be a fantastic partner top pair long term for rielly. Sorry it pasted so shitty

Morgan Rielly Brett Pesce
TOR Team CAR
D Position D
205 GP 199
3675 TOI 3452.4166666667
4002 CF 3403
3801 CA 2990
51.29 CF% 53.23
2989 FF 2567
2972 FA 2286
50.14 FF% 52.90
2079 SF 1803
2168 SA 1656
48.95 SF% 52.12
205 GF 151
165 GA 140
55.41 GF% 51.89
172.53 xGF 156.6
170.44 xGA 137.49
50.31 xGF% 53.25
2003 SCF 1651
1838 SCA 1433
52.15 SCF% 53.53
767 HDCF 752
741 HDCA 627
50.86 HDCF% 54.53
109 HDGF 91
95 HDGA 73
53.43 HDGF% 55.49
1236 MDCF 899
1097 MDCA 806
52.98 MDCF% 52.73
66 MDGF 38
48 MDGA 44
57.89 MDGF% 46.34
1697 LDCF 1458
1671 LDCA 1278
50.39 LDCF% 53.29
30 LDGF 21
22 LDGA 22
57.69 LDGF% 48.84
9.86 On-Ice SH% 8.37
92.39 On-Ice SV% 91.55
1.022 PDO 0.999
602 Off. Zone Starts 452
898 Neu. Zone Starts 801
583 Def. Zone Starts 444
2745 On The Fly Starts 2492
50.80 Off. Zone Start % 50.45
1332 Off. Zone Faceoffs 1038
1329 Neu. Zone Faceoffs 1230
1293 Def. Zone Faceoffs 1024
50.74 Off. Zone Faceoff % 50.34

 

[DarkKnight]

I guess that didn't work out as expected for you.

Matthewes A+
Marner A
Nylander B
Tavares C+

How does Geordano only get an A and not an A+???

Not speaking to the veracity of his metrics, but it is simply delicious that Marner’s contract is perceived as better value than Willie. Cue head exploding from half this board.

 

[Zybalto]

In my opinion yes he is that good. This is rielly and pesce over the past 5 years. He would be a fantastic partner top pair long term for rielly. Sorry it pasted so shitty

Morgan Rielly Brett Pesce
TOR Team CAR
D Position D
205 GP 199
3675 TOI 3452.4166666667
4002 CF 3403
3801 CA 2990
51.29 CF% 53.23
2989 FF 2567
2972 FA 2286
50.14 FF% 52.90
2079 SF 1803
2168 SA 1656
48.95 SF% 52.12
205 GF 151
165 GA 140
55.41 GF% 51.89
172.53 xGF 156.6
170.44 xGA 137.49
50.31 xGF% 53.25
2003 SCF 1651
1838 SCA 1433
52.15 SCF% 53.53
767 HDCF 752
741 HDCA 627
50.86 HDCF% 54.53
109 HDGF 91
95 HDGA 73
53.43 HDGF% 55.49
1236 MDCF 899
1097 MDCA 806
52.98 MDCF% 52.73
66 MDGF 38
48 MDGA 44
57.89 MDGF% 46.34
1697 LDCF 1458
1671 LDCA 1278
50.39 LDCF% 53.29
30 LDGF 21
22 LDGA 22
57.69 LDGF% 48.84
9.86 On-Ice SH% 8.37
92.39 On-Ice SV% 91.55
1.022 PDO 0.999
602 Off. Zone Starts 452
898 Neu. Zone Starts 801
583 Def. Zone Starts 444
2745 On The Fly Starts 2492
50.80 Off. Zone Start % 50.45
1332 Off. Zone Faceoffs 1038
1329 Neu. Zone Faceoffs 1230
1293 Def. Zone Faceoffs 1024
50.74 Off. Zone Faceoff % 50.34

Comparing Pesce to Rielly is a bit awkward as they have quite different usage on their teams. With Toronto fans/media being absolutely toxic towards players in his more defensive role, I dont think he would be seen in a great light, especially as he had been a little underwhelming since the shoulder issues. Let me show you Pesce as compared with a Toronto RHD with a similar role over the last 3 years using REL numbers as well for context.

5v5 numbers 2019-2022 (with REL in brackets):

TOI:
Pesce: 3256:03 (17:30/game)
Toronto RHD: 3216:43 (16:45/game)

Ozone Starts:
Pesce: 49.09
Toronto RHD: 43.66

Points/60:
Pesce: 1.05
Toronto RHD: 0.93

CF%:
Pesce: 54.75 (-1.37)
Toronto RHD: 52.23 (-1.1)

SF%:
Pesce: 52.54 (-2.59)
Toronto RHD: 52.23 (-0.5)

xGF%:
Pesce: 53.03 (-2.16)
Toronto RHD: 54.85 (+0.93)

GF%:
Pesce: 53.93 (-3.36)
Toronto RHD: 52.87 (-0.85)

Just defensively:

Shots Against/60:
Pesce: 29.48 (+2.42)
Toronto RHD: 29.21 (+0.25)

XGA/60:
Pesce: 2.54 (+0.26)
Toronto RHD: 2.23 (-0.07)

GA/60:
Pesce: 2.4 (+0.4)
Toronto RHD: 2.55 (+0.01)



While Pesce provided a little more offense than the mystery D, the Toronto RHD was better in his own end in arguably tougher usage with worse goaltending help. Guess who the Toronto D is......

 

[Zybalto]

Not speaking to the veracity of his metrics, but it is simply delicious that Marner’s contract is perceived as better value than Willie. Cue head exploding from half this board.

Hey, Just rank the top 15 caphits in the league heading into this season.

It probably goes something like:

1. McDavid/Matthews
2. McDavid/Matthews
3. Barkov
4. Marner
5......(we can talk about the rest)

Marner's contract is a solid deal for both player and team and it would be nice if we got a discount of course.

Even Tavares is probably still at around 7 or 8 out of 15.....and things would look a lot different if the flat cap didn't happen with Nurse getting 10+ and Huberdeau getting close to Matthews money.

The flat cap skewed many folks perceptions of things and screwed the team royally. Some people cant wrap their head around the fact the deals were signed in anticipation of the rapidly expanding cap and with the flat cap keeping current contracts down, it just feeds into their initial faulty conclusions.

 

[Canadian Finn]

and that comes from being a rookie.

decisions made from experience don't make fundamental decisions based on "anticipations".

 

[andora]

I posted 5 on 5 numbers as well

2018-2019 to present corrext?

Did you add brodies and holls ice time together?

Comparing Pesce to Rielly is a bit awkward as they have quite different usage on their teams. With Toronto fans/media being absolutely toxic towards players in his more defensive role, I dont think he would be seen in a great light, especially as he had been a little underwhelming since the shoulder issues. Let me show you Pesce as compared with a Toronto RHD with a similar role over the last 3 years using REL numbers as well for context.

5v5 numbers 2019-2022 (with REL in brackets):

TOI:
Pesce: 3256:03 (17:30/game)
Toronto RHD: 3216:43 (16:45/game)

Ozone Starts:
Pesce: 49.09
Toronto RHD: 43.66

Points/60:
Pesce: 1.05
Toronto RHD: 0.93

CF%:
Pesce: 54.75 (-1.37)
Toronto RHD: 52.23 (-1.1)

SF%:
Pesce: 52.54 (-2.59)
Toronto RHD: 52.23 (-0.5)

xGF%:
Pesce: 53.03 (-2.16)
Toronto RHD: 54.85 (+0.93)

GF%:
Pesce: 53.93 (-3.36)
Toronto RHD: 52.87 (-0.85)

Just defensively:

Shots Against/60:
Pesce: 29.48 (+2.42)
Toronto RHD: 29.21 (+0.25)

XGA/60:
Pesce: 2.54 (+0.26)
Toronto RHD: 2.23 (-0.07)

GA/60:
Pesce: 2.4 (+0.4)
Toronto RHD: 2.55 (+0.01)



While Pesce provided a little more offense than the mystery D, the Toronto RHD was better in his own end in arguably tougher usage with worse goaltending help. Guess who the Toronto D is......

 

[andora]

Comparing Pesce to Rielly is a bit awkward as they have quite different usage on their teams. With Toronto fans/media being absolutely toxic towards players in his more defensive role, I dont think he would be seen in a great light, especially as he had been a little underwhelming since the shoulder issues. Let me show you Pesce as compared with a Toronto RHD with a similar role over the last 3 years using REL numbers as well for context.

5v5 numbers 2019-2022 (with REL in brackets):

TOI:
Pesce: 3256:03 (17:30/game)
Toronto RHD: 3216:43 (16:45/game)

Ozone Starts:
Pesce: 49.09
Toronto RHD: 43.66

Points/60:
Pesce: 1.05
Toronto RHD: 0.93

CF%:
Pesce: 54.75 (-1.37)
Toronto RHD: 52.23 (-1.1)

SF%:
Pesce: 52.54 (-2.59)
Toronto RHD: 52.23 (-0.5)

xGF%:
Pesce: 53.03 (-2.16)
Toronto RHD: 54.85 (+0.93)

GF%:
Pesce: 53.93 (-3.36)
Toronto RHD: 52.87 (-0.85)

Just defensively:

Shots Against/60:
Pesce: 29.48 (+2.42)
Toronto RHD: 29.21 (+0.25)

XGA/60:
Pesce: 2.54 (+0.26)
Toronto RHD: 2.23 (-0.07)

GA/60:
Pesce: 2.4 (+0.4)
Toronto RHD: 2.55 (+0.01)



While Pesce provided a little more offense than the mystery D, the Toronto RHD was better in his own end in arguably tougher usage with worse goaltending help. Guess who the Toronto D is......

Nevermind i see its holl

The search criteria i was using on NST wouldnt let 21/22 be added for that long of range

 

[Racer88]

We should trade Marner and Matthews, problem solved. They have a lot of value even on these terrible contracts.

Our team will surely get better.

To put your comment in context a team would have to take all 3 of them.
each of them individually is not bad, its when they are all on one team that it’s crippling

 

[Dekes For Days]

and that comes from being a rookie.
decisions made from experience don't make fundamental decisions based on "anticipations".

Every single contract signed by every single GM throughout the entire pre-pandemic cap era was signed based on an understanding of a rising cap. That was built in to every contract precedent. The "rookie" move would be suggesting that your star players need to be underpaid relative to the history of post-ELC contracts because despite all projections pointing to a bigger than normal jump in cap over the length of those contracts, there was a 1 in a trillion chance of a once-in-a-century global pandemic that could shut down the league, 180 all projections, and stagnate the cap for a half decade. You'd literally get laughed out of the room.

 

[Canadian Finn]

we get it.

you love your boy wonders.

minnie marner and super dubas ... our saviors.