Athletic Has Leafs as 3rd best in contract Values

[Dekes For Days]

Denault had 4 points the entire playoffs.

Mhm, maybe you're right and Danault wasn't very good through any of it. At least he didn't get thoroughly outplayed in every other series like he did against us.

The post thing is completely made up by you.

No, it's not. That's what was reported at the time. I don't know where to find post statistics, but I assume the ones reporting it did their research. Not really the main point anyway.

His game one juiced his save percentage.

Korpisalo had a 0.966 and 0.973 in the first 2 games against a Tampa team that would go on to win the cup, and he set the all-time playoff save record in the process. I'd say that's a pretty good indication that he wasn't just on a run because it was us.

 

[rocketman588]

Mhm, maybe you're right and Danault wasn't very good through any of it. At least he didn't get thoroughly outplayed in every other series like he did against us.

No, it's not. That's what was reported at the time. I don't know where to find post statistics, but I assume the ones reporting it did their research. Not really the main point anyway.

Korpisalo had a 0.966 and 0.973 in the first 2 games against a Tampa team that would go on to win the cup, and he set the all-time playoff save record in the process. I'd say that's a pretty good indication that he wasn't just on a run because it was us.

Denault did his job and locked down Matthews much like he did every other center. You not understanding that there's more to hockey then points isn't a shock however. Kampf was a terrible signing I guess by your logic in that case

It was definitely not a narrative brought forward by anyone in fact Keefe was mocked for his we got in good areas comment

His last two games his save percentages were .909 and .800. he faced 47 total shots. Turns out good teams figure out mediocre goalies and defensive gameplans something we have issues with due to poor management and coaching

 

[Zybalto]

No, that was not his role. That is just getting massively outplayed. If you think his job was to get massively outplayed in every way, and that was the best they could possibly hope for, then you're really just arguing how amazing and massively valuable and impactful Matthews is.

I'm pretty sure it was reported that Matthews hit more posts than any other player in the 1st round of that year's playoffs.

If I remember correctly, Danault did have better moments in the playoffs after getting crushed by us, but the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd reason they made their run was Price.

Columbus continued getting hot goaltending into the Tampa series. Through the same amount of ice time, the SV% was almost identical. Korpisalo set the all-time playoff save record in that series. 0.950 goaltending is obviously not sustainable. Eventually, it runs out and often rebounds the other direction. Columbus actually still ended with a better series goal differential than any other team Tampa faced on their way to the cup.

Yup, Danault during the regular season:
xGF%: 57.17
Goal differential: 59.76
xGA/60: 1.86

Dominant two way player (with a stronger defensive bent) on one of the best lines in hockey:

Danault against the Leafs:
xGF%: 34.80
Goal differential: 0.00 (0 goals for, 3 against and lucky to have it that low)
xGA/60: 3.23

The worst playoff series of his career and actually led to that league-leading line being broken up after a game 5 victory. The coach had to do something as they were getting eaten alive by the Matthews line and his big problem was breaking that line up and with no Tatar, they could never get their offensive mojo going again. Matthews with 11 takeaways and 1 giveaway 5v5.....Danault with 2 takeaways and 7 giveaways.....

Danault the rest of the playoffs:
xGF%: 48.17
Goal differential: 55.19
xGA/60: 2.13

Again, with no Tatar on the line anymore hurt the line offensively a bit but they returned to solidish numbers not having to play Matthews, especially defensively. Ducharme should have recognized this and reunited the line instead of blaming Tatar for Matthews' dominance. It might have led them to a cup. Ducharme really is one of the worst coaches to make it to a finals IMO.

Goals allowed against the Leafs by the Danault line: 3 (and they got lucky)
Goals allowed the entire rest of the playoffs by the Danault line: 3


On the flip side, just look at the Matthews/Marner lines numbers the last 3 seasons:

Regular season:
xGF%: 62.70
Goal differential: 63.48

Playoffs:
xGF%: 64.70
Goal differential: 63.71

Some really stable numbers there. The rest of the team, not so great. The PP has been a real disaster too.

As a line though, Matthews/Marner have been one of the best in the league, playoffs or not.

 

[Zybalto]

Denault did his job and locked down Matthews much like he did every other center. You not understanding that there's more to hockey then points isn't a shock however. Kampf was a terrible signing I guess by your logic in that case

It was definitely not a narrative brought forward by anyone in fact Keefe was mocked for his we got in good areas comment

His last two games his save percentages were .909 and .800. he faced 47 total shots. Turns out good teams figure out mediocre goalies and defensive gameplans something we have issues with due to poor management and coaching

Danault's 5v5 ranking among all 77 Centers with over 50+ 5v5 minutes in the first round in all relevant defensive categories:

Fewest Shots Against/60: 69th out of 77
Fewest Scoring Chances Against/60: 74th out of 77
Fewest High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60: 73rd out of 77
Lowest xGA/60: 74th out of 77

On-ice save%: 95.75

The guy owes Price drinks the rest of his life IMO.

 

[DarkKnight]

I think you are spinning an odd narrative here though.

Are you really surpised a Habs team playing back at home coming off an overtime victory with their back still against the wall wouldnt come out hard in the first period? Its literally the norm for these situations no matter the teams and the period still ended at 0-0 after they blew their load. Tampa has had just as many "embarassing" moments but they won right? Why did they? They had multiple games during that cup run where they won games they had no business winning really and if it were the Leafs they would be even bigger "embarassments" than you think game 6 was. Only managing 15 shots in a game against the Canes? Getting almost doubled in shots in a game against the Habs? They won both games so its all good. Both those games were far more embarrassing for Tampa than the Leafs start in game 6 was though. Looked like they took the night off in both games but hey, they could afford to do that right. Got that x-factor.

I mean, in that game 6 after the first, the Leafs then proceded to take over the game, outshooting them 33-16 over nearly a full game of hockey (if you include the overtime). If not for Price, the series was over (the story of the entire Habs playoff run really). If that was a Tampa game with its inevitable 2-1 victory, is the team all of a sudden heroes with the same start? Yup.

Its a sad fact that every Leafs series has literally been a game of "switch the goalies and we win". Maybe Murray with his excellent playoff pedigree can finally change that......and for all the praise over the Habs making the finals, I wouldnt trade that run to be a crap team like they became for the next 5 years A cup? For sure! .......but no one is going to remember the Habs outside of being a poorly coached mediocre team carried by a massive cinderella goalie that still failed to win in the end. Their managment slit their own throats too doubling down on thinking their team was actually good.

It’s laughable anyone would argue I’m spinning anything as it relates to that collapse. I’ll leave you to it, for myself if was the most obvious thing I’ve seen.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Denault did his job and locked down Matthews much like he did every other center. You not understanding that there's more to hockey then points isn't a shock however. Kampf was a terrible signing I guess by your logic in that case

Danault did not do his job. He got thoroughly outplayed in every way. Of course there's more to hockey than points, but Danault didn't bring much else, and there is an expectation of more than a 12 point pace from your top line center. Kampf is a good signing because, unlike Danault in our series, he puts up good defensive results, and doesn't rely on his goalie bailing him out.

His last two games his save percentages were .909 and .800.

Yes, eventually hot streaks run out, but hot streaks running out doesn't mean that the hot streak never happened. The high-end goaltending continued into the Tampa series.

 

[rocketman588]

Danault did not do his job. He got thoroughly outplayed in every way. Of course there's more to hockey than points, but Danault didn't bring much else, and there is an expectation of more than a 12 point pace from your top line center. Kampf is a good signing because, unlike Danault in our series, he puts up good defensive results, and doesn't rely on his goalie bailing him out.

Yes, eventually hot streaks run out, but hot streaks running out doesn't mean that the hot streak never happened. The high-end goaltending continued into the Tampa series.

Denault put up consistently great defensive results throughout the playoffs. Just because you're caught in one lie doesn't mean you need to keep digging. Prices save percentage throughout the playoffs was .924 so good but not insane

He was only one of the many reasons they made the cup he certainly didn't bail them out every game. They played with great structure and purpose from game 5 on to the finals Denault was a massive part of that

Got it though kampf good because he was signed by the Dubas, Denault bad because he shut down Matthews and made dubas look bad again

I feel bad for posters like Zeke who while sometimes are shaded a little towards Dubas bias will more often then not speak actual hockey with you and use logical reasoning instead of the complete nonsense circle you post every time you're wrong ( which is often).

You're causing people who have legitimate reasoning to be excited about what dubas has produced to be lumped in with you and it makes people not want to interact with them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Denault put up consistently great defensive results throughout the playoffs.

Danault put up good defensive results in the regular season, and through the rest of the playoffs, but he did not put up good defensive results against Matthews. See the post above.

He was only one of the many reasons they made the cup he certainly didn't bail them out every game.

Price didn't "bail them out every game", but he was, by far, the main reason for the run, and especially the win against Toronto.

Got it though kampf good because he was signed by the Dubas, Denault bad because he shut down Matthews and made dubas look bad again

No, as I noted, Kampf is good because he puts up good defensive results, and doesn't rely on his goalie bailing him out. Danault is usually good for the same reasons, but he was not good against Matthews.

 

[Zybalto]

It’s laughable anyone would argue I’m spinning anything as it relates to that collapse. I’ll leave you to it, for myself if was the most obvious thing I’ve seen.

Im not accusing you of spinning anything really.

I just think it was a strange take is all....and what was obvious? I'm not even sure what you mean?

 

[rocketman588]

Danault put up good defensive results in the regular season, and through the rest of the playoffs, but he did not put up good defensive results against Matthews. See the post above.

Price didn't "bail them out every game", but he was, by far, the main reason for the run, and especially the win against Toronto.

No, as I noted, Kampf is good because he puts up good defensive results, and doesn't rely on his goalie bailing him out. Danault is usually good for the same reasons, but he was not good against Matthews.

Considering he locked Matthews and marner down to the total of 9 points the only thing you have shown is your inability to understand hockey.

He quite obviously dominated Matthews. Considering our top line produced nothing

It's pretty obvious you don't watch actual games.

It's ok dude you're pretty transparent. Kampf signed by dubas= good. It's why you also have to make up stories about Matthews hitting the most posts of all time anything to justify your obsession with Dubie

Denault was not so he's not

Maybe you'll get to meet your hero at the Sioux st Marie bake sale next summer when Dubas is working there.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He quite obviously dominated Matthews. Considering our top line produced nothing

He very obviously did not dominate Matthews. He very obviously got dominated himself in every possible way. If our top line "produced nothing", then their top line produced much less than nothing, so even by your logic, Matthews dominated.

It's pretty obvious you don't watch actual games.

I've watched every single minute of every single game in the Matthews era.

Kampf signed by dubas= good. It's why you also have to make up stories about Matthews hitting the most posts of all time anything to justify your obsession with Dubie. Denault was not so he's not

I don't care about Dubas, and it's hilarious that you're accusing others of being obsessed with him when you're the one who keeps bringing him up and making everything about him, even when he has zero relevance to the discussion. No stories were made up, and nobody said anything about most posts "all-time". As I've already noted twice now, Kampf is good because he puts up good defensive results, and doesn't rely on his goalie bailing him out. Danault is usually good for the same reasons, but he was not good against Matthews.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

This is not accurate. He had 2 61 point seasons in his ELC. His PPG was actually higher than both Draisaitl and Pastrnak. Not to mention, Clayton Keller got 7.15 not long after Nylander signed and had far worse numbers with more TOI.
Your Mackinnon comment is odd given Nylander had a better ELC than Mackinnon did. The cap had risen a lot. Mack got as much as he could with seasons of 63, 53 and 38 points. How is he getting paid what he was worth but Nylander what he would become? Nylander had 2 60 point seasons. Significant. It's almost like you're saying Nylander is only worth 6.9 right now. He's underpaid.

This idea Mackinnon took a discount is garbage. No truth to it whatsoever.

No way. This would NEVER happen in reverse. If a leaf player paced for 37 goals/78 points his final elc year, you and the usual suspects would NEVER allow a 20 goal/60 point player to be used as a direct comparable. EVER. Imagine I did that with Marner? I used a player who only ever scored 70 points as Marner's direct comparable? Can you imagine... imagine... if I tried to make that argument?

And Nylander (proven 20 goal/60 point player) wasn't JUST paid the Pastrnak contract. It was way more front loaded. Way more in signing bonuses. And (lol) one less ufa year.

You're treating an rfa negotiation like a ufa negotiation. "Based on ufa's, 6.9aav is a steal for Nylander." But what we're supposed to do is compare him to other RFA'S at time of signing. Nylander and his agent had NO leverage. Nylander could still be playing for peanuts in Europe.... or eventually agree with Dubas's terms. That's IT. Those were the only two choices Nylander had. For Dubas to cave to the Pastrnak contract (with MORE perks) was a disgrace. It set the tone for other rfa negotiations, that also ended disastrously.

 

[danny90]

Considering he locked Matthews and marner down to the total of 9 points the only thing you have shown is your inability to understand hockey.

He quite obviously dominated Matthews. Considering our top line produced nothing

It's pretty obvious you don't watch actual games.

It's ok dude you're pretty transparent. Kampf signed by dubas= good. It's why you also have to make up stories about Matthews hitting the most posts of all time anything to justify your obsession with Dubie

Denault was not so he's not

Maybe you'll get to meet your hero at the Sioux st Marie bake sale next summer when Dubas is working there.

This is a pretty blind take. Matthews and Marner were extremely dangerous on the ice the entire series, Price was better. Watch the games and look at the statistics because you are missing something.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

This is a pretty blind take. Matthews and Marner were extremely dangerous on the ice the entire series, Price was better. Watch the games and look at the statistics because you are missing something.

The leafs, under this core of players, are something like 0-9 on series clinching playoff games. We're well... WELL... past the "excuse" phase. The "bad luck" phase. There is literally something fundamentally wrong with these core players, and the numbers literally don't lie. 0-9.

ZERO AND NINE. At what point will people actually face reality? It's SCREAMING at you. Why do so many refuse to hear it?

 

[danny90]

The leafs, under this core of players, are something like 0-9 on series clinching playoff games. We're well... WELL... past the "excuse" phase. The "bad luck" phase. There is literally something fundamentally wrong with these core players, and the numbers literally don't lie. 0-9.

ZERO AND NINE. At what point will people actually face reality? It's SCREAMING at you. Why do so many refuse to hear it?

No excuses or bad luck here, I just don't see the problem being our two best players.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No excuses or bad luck here, I just don't see the problem being our two best players.

Well, we've shuffled the supporting cast top to bottom for 5 straight years. Is there, dare I say, a common denominator?

 

[Zybalto]

The leafs, under this core of players, are something like 0-9 on series clinching playoff games. We're well... WELL... past the "excuse" phase. The "bad luck" phase. There is literally something fundamentally wrong with these core players, and the numbers literally don't lie. 0-9.

ZERO AND NINE. At what point will people actually face reality? It's SCREAMING at you. Why do so many refuse to hear it?

Leafs:
0 and 9 while scoring 17 goals in last 9 clinching games

Tampa:
7 and 2 while scoring 18 goals in last 9 clinching games

Toronto's top players have also outscored Tampa's in these games.

What do you suggest is the problem and remedy?

Considering he locked Matthews and marner down to the total of 9 points the only thing you have shown is your inability to understand hockey.

He quite obviously dominated Matthews. Considering our top line produced nothing

It's pretty obvious you don't watch actual games.

It's ok dude you're pretty transparent. Kampf signed by dubas= good. It's why you also have to make up stories about Matthews hitting the most posts of all time anything to justify your obsession with Dubie

Denault was not so he's not

Maybe you'll get to meet your hero at the Sioux st Marie bake sale next summer when Dubas is working there.

Man, Danault was dominating so much that his line was dismantled after game 5.

I know its always a good sign of success.

I thought the fact his series MVP goalie saving his butt or near worst defensive stats of any center in the first round were the telltale signs of success but having one of the best lines from the regular season get broken up and your winger stapled to the bench?

Thats pure dominance right there.



In all seriousness, it's a fun narrative to spin but whats wrong with saying Price was a bigger reason along with Matthews actually not finishing his chances on what are usually money from him spots (not sure if the soon to be surgically repaired wrist came into play here). How about goaltending differential, injury issues, a garbage PP and key depth players not producing (Mikheyev, Thornton, Hyman, Engvall, Simmonds, Foligno combining for 2 goals and 5 points in 7 games) as a more reasonable take on the series loss. Danault's D was.....not good.......and that matches the eye test or the stats.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Leafs:
0 and 9 while scoring 17 goals in last 9 clinching games

Tampa:
7 and 2 while scoring 18 goals in last 9 clinching games

Toronto's top players have also outscored Tampa's in these games.

What do you suggest is the problem and remedy?

What I always argue. That three 11 million dollar forwards isn't sustainable in a flat cap environment. It COULD have MAYBE been successful if the cap rose as predicted (and I doubt even that). But flat cap sealed te deal. Three 11 million dollar forwards isn't sustainable. As you showed, Tampa and Toronto scored similarly in their past 9 playoff clenching games. But Tampa actually WINS those games. Why? Because their extra cap space goes into things like having the arguably best goalie and defenseman in the league. Our goalies are reclamation projects because it's all we can afford. We haven't had an "elite" defenseman since... I honestly don't know when.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Because they're extra cap space goes into things like having the arguably best goalie and defenseman in the league. Our goalies are reclamation projects because it's all we can afford.

We were a better defensive team than Tampa last year. When exactly were we prevented from signing a Vasilevsky because of cap?

 

[Zybalto]

What I always argue. That three 11 million dollar forwards isn't sustainable in a flat cap environment. It COULD have MAYBE been successful if the cap rose as predicted (and I doubt even that). But flat cap sealed te deal. Three 11 million dollar forwards isn't sustainable. As you showed, Tampa and Toronto scored similarly in their past 9 playoff clenching games. But Tampa actually WINS those games. Why? Because they're extra cap space goes into things like having the arguably best goalie and defenseman in the league. Our goalies are reclamation projects because it's all we can afford. We haven't had an "elite" defenseman since... I honestly don't know when.

Hey, getting hit with the double whammy of signing the big contracts with the risimg cap baked into them combined with the flat cap has crippled the Leafs more than any other team in pro sports.

Not only do we not have access to the 10 million cap raise right now(who would you have signed?) but all other big contracts are being signed for less money making us less competetive there.

Id imagine if covid happened before we signed the big 4, we'd have an extra 5 million there too.

The cap system should never go flat for this very reason. Abolishing it shoukd be at the top of thr list for any cap team in the NHL. Just got to wait for Bettman to leave......

 

[andora]

We were a better defensive team than Tampa last year. When exactly were we prevented from signing a Vasilevsky because of cap?

that sounds like bait

there aren't vasilevskys waiting to be signed to state the obvious. due to our team construction, it boils down to
- role players sometimes having unattainable expectations, some of them have delivered most of not, speaking offensively. we do not have the luxury or confidence of being comfortable in 2-1 games. goaltending is not a strength - therefore we must score a bit more, play to the strength/construction of the team.

this puts the focus on either
- bottom players scoring
- top players scoring MORE than what is sufficient to acknowledge they provide value equal to their contract

neither has happened.

 

[Dekes For Days]

there aren't vasilevskys waiting to be signed to state the obvious.

Exactly. Our allocation didn't prevent us from building a top defensive team, and us not having a Vasilevsky has nothing to do with cap space.

 

[andora]

Exactly. Our allocation didn't prevent us from building a top defensive team, and us not having a Vasilevsky has nothing to do with cap space.

except it goes towards the discussion of our team construction and where you direct your expectations (as i said above) - the same team construction concept you freaked out about in some other thread.

different constructions need different expectations/production - ours whole heartedly falls on the big four to produce more than they are - not whatever makes it adequate to their contract/value ratio (also used in another thread)

nevermind the fact they don't get paid in the playoffs, so the expectations should be limitless as comparing their value/production to their contract is just regular season. we should save some goals this year for April/May

 

[NoTeeth]

No way. This would NEVER happen in reverse. If a leaf player paced for 37 goals/78 points his final elc year, you and the usual suspects would NEVER allow a 20 goal/60 point player to be used as a direct comparable. EVER. Imagine I did that with Marner? I used a player who only ever scored 70 points as Marner's direct comparable? Can you imagine... imagine... if I tried to make that argument?

And Nylander (proven 20 goal/60 point player) wasn't JUST paid the Pastrnak contract. It was way more front loaded. Way more in signing bonuses. And (lol) one less ufa year.

You're treating an rfa negotiation like a ufa negotiation. "Based on ufa's, 6.9aav is a steal for Nylander." But what we're supposed to do is compare him to other RFA'S at time of signing. Nylander and his agent had NO leverage. Nylander could still be playing for peanuts in Europe.... or eventually agree with Dubas's terms. That's IT. Those were the only two choices Nylander had. For Dubas to cave to the Pastrnak contract (with MORE perks) was a disgrace. It set the tone for other rfa negotiations, that also ended disastrously.

Who are we even talking about? Secondly, if Leaf fans used 'Pace" we'd be told we were stupid and only actual stats count.
Nylander is a steal. Only in Toronto would we hear this nonsense.
Pastynak had 1 30 point season+ 1 70 point season. Nylander had 2 61 point seasons and better PPG. Also, There's other guys besides Pastrynak that signed deals....Clayton Keller?

 

[Dekes For Days]

ours whole heartedly falls on the big four to produce more than they are

For the record, over the 3 years that all of the big 4 have been on their current contracts, those big 4 have produced a higher percentage of our team's points in the playoffs than they do in the regular season, despite playing a lesser percentage of games.