Athletic Has Leafs as 3rd best in contract Values
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leafsfan5
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- Jun 14, 2014
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Yup, TB has the roster composition to barely score in those games and find a way to win due to having money in Vasi and others
We don't. Our roster is built to score. If it doesn't score we're screwed
Racer88
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- Sep 29, 2020
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High paid and have still won nothing. Not one playoff round.
Not quite true.
With their rebuild well ahead of the Leafs, both teams are trying to be built to score, defend and have good goaltending.
It's like I said before. Just look at both teams last 9 playoff elimination games:
Leafs:
0 and 9 while scoring 17 goals in last 9 clinching games
Tampa:
7 and 2 while scoring 18 goals in last 9 clinching games
Toronto's top players have also outscored Tampa's in these games.
The big problem on Toronto is inconsistent goaltending that fails hard in big playoff games.
I mean, looking at regular season rankings since Keefe was hired:
Goals for:
Toronto: 2nd in the NHL
Tampa: 5th in the NHL
XGA (Team D):
Toronto: 4th in the NHL (tied)
Tampa: 4th in the NHL (tied)
Team save%:
Toronto: 20th in the NHL
Tampa: 7th in the NHL
What made our goaltending so insidious was that they actually had long stretches where they were top 10 level too....and then the goaltending would crumble (sounds like a Leafs playoff series)
The playoffs are a different beast of course and Toronto has had more scoring issues overall (more middle of the pack and Ill explain) but goaltending is still the number one issue.
I mean, even looking at the top team save% from the last 3 playoffs, here are the top 5 teams:
1. Columbus
2. Vancouver
3. Tampa
4. Montreal
5. NYI
It's crazy we somehow always have to run into the goaltending stories of the playoffs in the first round as well. It is what it is.
Tampa is well ahead in their rebuild which meant that once Toronto signed all their big guns (with the rising cap baked into the salary), they needed the cap to go up to pick up the pieces to get to the next level. Andersen turning into an injury prone liability and Campbell not nearly as good as everyone thought meant goaltending was the obvious place to do that. In all reality, Toronto should be in a far better place and would have the money to buy any goalkeeper they wanted at any price but covid screwed us worse than anyone (why the hell isnt this a bigger story?)
Both teams are built to score.
Both teams are great defensively
Both team are well coached (both top ten xGF%)
One team has good goaltending.
Lets see if the new tandem can take the reigns this year. It would be nice to have clutch goalies for the first time since Belfour.
ACC1224
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Yep, some just manage it better.
*** We know, Dubas is exceptional at it, no issues here, cap Utopia.
CDN24
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- Jun 17, 2009
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Individually and collectively they are not the problem- they produce for the most part. The problem is their contracts. To win in the playoffs you need 4 lines, you need goaltending and defense. Ignoring time short handed there are 5X 60 or 300 skater minutes available in a game. Even if those guys play 25 mins a night there are still 200 mins where someone else is on the ice- this is not basketball where the stars can play 48-50 mins of the 60
The amount of Cap space allocated to those 4 means there is not enough left to complete a winning roster for the playoffs. Teams that beat the Leafs in the playoffs for the most part have a better Cap allocation that allows them to have better goaltending, better depth Forwards and or better depth D.
Leafs problem is they have too much of a good thing, in that having too much of that good thing means there are not enough resources (Cap) to have other necessary ingredients to win in the playoffs.
No one is saying the big 4 are not good enough for playoff hockey, what they are saying is that their contracts make it impossible to have enough other parts to win.
Dubas has to go dumpster diving each year to complete his roster, sometimes he gets a great piece (e.g Bunting). The problem is he needs many of them and even when he finds one, they guy eventually needs a new contract and becomes unaffordable.
The perception is Cap hell and Dubas overpays players. Is that true though?
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Except there's no evidence that that is true. Playoff outcomes are a result of much, much more than exclusively cap allocation. Our cap allocation has not prevented us from having a top tier offense and a top tier defense, and while we don't have top tier goaltending, that is not a result of cap allocation. In fact, there's a very limited correlation between cap expenditure and the actual goaltending results one gets, and even if we had 10m in free cap space, we still wouldn't have a top tier goalie.
CDN24
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But there is evidence 2018-19 Lost Game 7 5-1 to the Bruins who scored
Game 7 B's Kuraly, Nordstrom, Bergeron, Coyle and Johannson Leafs Tavares. Tavares goal offsets Bergerons- the other 4 scored by their better depth
Game 5 against the Jackets in 2020 They won 3-0 who scored Werenski Foudy and Folingo in an empty net again depth guys
Series against the Habs 3 shots in Game 5,6,7
Game 5 Habs get 2 goals from Armia, one from KK and Suzuki in OT - again depth guys like Armia
Game 6 3 G perry, Toffoli and KK again 2 of the 3 were depth guys - to be fair Leafs got theirs from spezza and Brodie (the starts didn't produce in that one it happens
Game 7 Gallagher and perry - Tofolli with EN. Perry a depth guy who started on taxi squad with the game winner
Even Game 1 Paul Byron SH winner. Depth guys scoring to win key/deciding games
Against Tampa- Game 7 Nick Paul- the depth guy scored both goals
Go back to game 4 7-3 Bolts colton had 2, Bellmare had 1, Perry had 1, Maroon had 1. Tampa won 2 out of their 4 wins in Game y and game 4 where a loss puts them in a 3-1 hole with minimal scoring from their stars
Leafs 3rd 4th line are regularly outscored by oppositions 3rd and 4th lines in the playoffs. If the big 4 are not producing the Leafs are not winning. The teams that are beating the Leafs in playoffs can and do win key games without their stars producing because they have better depth.
You're naming some really cheap depth on other teams though while not mentioning Spezza in 2021 had 3 playoff goals with 4th line usage against the Habs. And armia was crazy overpaid.
The argumneent is supposed to be Leafs can't afford good depth due to the cap of other players on the team.
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Game 6 against Boston. Who scored the game-winning goal? Debrusk, making 863k.
Game 7 against Boston. Who scored the opening goal? Nordstrom, making 1.0m. The dagger? Kuraly, making 1.275m.
Game 3 against Columbus. Who led Columbus' comeback from 3-0, including the OT GWG? Dubois, making 894k.
Game 5 against Columbus. Who scored the dagger in the 3rd? Foudy, making 894k.
Game 5 against Montreal. Who scored the 3rd goal? Kotkaniemi, making 925k. The OT GWG? Suzuki, making 863k.
Game 6 against Montreal. Who opened the scoring? Perry, making 750k. The OT GWG? Kotkaniemi, making 925k.
Game 7 against Montreal. Who scored the GWG? Perry, making 750k.
Game 7 against Tampa. Who scored Tampa's only goals in that game? Paul, making 750k.
You went back to an earlier game in that series and noted some players... Colton? 1.125m. Bellemare? 1.0m. Perry? 1.0m. Maroon? 900k.
You argued cap allocation, but then promptly disproved your own claim.
Exactly. Tampa paid through the nose to get Hagel because of his cheap cap hit. Nick Paul was making nothing,
Cap hit never equals quality of "Depth". Is Mikheyev now making 4.75 instead of 1.6 means he's better?
Overpaying depth is always the worst anyways.
CDN24
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No I am saying they have better depth than the Leafs. A lot of them were on ELC's at the time Suzuki (who I did not include as depth as he was no 1 centre) KK, Debrusk and Foudy. where are leafs ELC guys scoring game winning goals in playoffs- harder to have them if you trade away picks on Folingo or to get out of other contracts because of poor cap allocation.
Other teams depth is better because they are not having their hands tied by their Cap allocation. Yes Tampa's is getting pretty tied but they keep making it work. How many depth goals would a guy like Jarvis have now if signing Tavares did not necessitate dumping the pick with Marleau to manage the cap
This has been disproven. Other teams depth is cheap.
And regarding the ELCs, they are coming. There's been a big issue with drafting in 2016-17.
And let's blame the person who signed Marleau, shall we. That contract is so much worse than Tavares will ever be. Jason Spezza at NHL minimum was better than Marleau.
Ironically that cheap depth in Nick Paul will now hurt Tampa. That was a bad contract he got this summer.
Okay, but that's not what you said. You said "the amount of Cap space allocated to those 4 means there is not enough left to complete a winning roster for the playoffs". That's clearly not true. And is this really representative of better depth, or better goaltending? Many of the opposition depth goals we're discussing are rather questionable, while our depth has seen a drop in their normally appropriate production while going up against the likes of Rask, Price, and Vasilevsky.
Some of them were on ELCs. Some of them weren't. It's true that ELCs are important to depth, but that has nothing to do with cap allocation. We don't have as much of that because our drafting during the years that would have produced NHLers through 2018-2022 was not very good. The future in this regard looks a lot brighter.
Lou signing Marleau to a horrible deal and Marleau being a ridiculously expensive liability during our competitive phase is what necessitated dumping him, and the only reason it ended up being Jarvis is because the rules were unexpectedly changed after the signing in the middle of the year after a global pandemic came out of nowhere and shut down the league, necessitating a completely different playoff format.
For the record, Jarvis has 3 career playoff goals, and would have done absolutely nothing for 3 of the 4 playoff years you referenced. Even in this theoretical swap where we add him and remove Tavares, we'd be at a net negative.
Golden_Jet
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If a basketball player plays 48 minutes, he has played the whole game.
ACC1224
Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
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Yeah the Marleau dumping certainly had it's implications. Not sure if that was Dubas' biggest blunder but it certainly top 5.
Racer88
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therealkoho
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Throw More Waffles
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Can anyone imagine this in reverse?
Imagine the leafs were winning round after round and were 9-0 on series clinching games. Imagine instead of arguing that our core players were clutch, we said they were "just lucky" on all of those games. Lol. It wouldn't be stood for. Imagine I mined a whole bunch of insane statistics and said "Sure, the leafs won those nine games. But based on advanced stats, they SHOULD have lost those games. And that's what matters more." Just IMAGINE the reactions to such arguments.
It would NEVER happen in reverse. When the leafs do (or ever) succeed, the "results will speak for themselves". It doesn't seem to apply to never ending disappointments.
Imagine the leafs were winning round after round and were 9-0 on series clinching games. Imagine instead of arguing that our core players were clutch, we said they were "just lucky" on all of those games. Lol. It wouldn't be stood for. Imagine I mined a whole bunch of insane statistics and said "Sure, the leafs won those nine games. But based on advanced stats, they SHOULD have lost those games. And that's what matters more." Just IMAGINE the reactions to such arguments.
It would NEVER happen in reverse. When the leafs do (or ever) succeed, the "results will speak for themselves". It doesn't seem to apply to never ending disappointments.
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So true.
Yet so many people wants to argue it is not the case, lol.
I am not sure if it is the core or unlucky or whatever, the fact that the top guys rarely shows up in playoffs when it matters most is a concern. You look at McD and Drai, they literally had as many points in one playoffs than our top guys in their careers in less games. That’s what I called being dominant not they created chances but got outgoalied or if only their teammates could had scored….
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