Athletic: Dubas Job on the Line this Season (contract expiring after this season)

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It's a pretty controversial move, if you ask me. Kyle has done a decent job albeit he's inherited majority of the core. The only addition to the core that you can attribute directly to Kyle is John Tavares but in hindsight there is a 50/50 split on whether its been a good move or not.

He hasn't made a controversial move yet but has decided to stick with the core. As much as I want to contest that, I think its the right move at the end of the day. That said, he's definitely on notice by management based on not being offered an extension.
 
Leafs since 18-19

#3 Regulation Wins
#5 Points Percentage
#32 Shootout Wins
#11 Playoffs Wins
 
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We bring in an analytics-orientated GM, who is supposed to revolutionize the game with data-based decision-making.

5 years later we're relying on "luck" and "goalies being voodoo," according to his supporters.

It'd be comical if it weren't so tragic.

If anything, I find there’s a lesson to be learned here from a public messaging point of view. For anyone, terms like analytics and data, to probability ought not to slip into the verbiage of luck and betting and odds.
 
We bring in an analytics-orientated GM, who is supposed to revolutionize the game with data-based decision-making.

5 years later we're relying on "luck" and "goalies being voodoo," according to his supporters.

It'd be comical if it weren't so tragic.
Funny how logic works though.

If they're right, then it follows that some are more lucky than others, therefore there exists GMs more lucky than Dubas since we experience bad luck and should use one of them to increase our luck.

All paths lead to an end of an era.
 
Leafs since 18-19

#3 Regulation Wins
#5 Points Percentage
#32 Shootout Wins
#11 Playoffs Wins

If Shanahan is reserving judgement, I think that’s the most prudent place to be in terms of seeing how 2022-23 unfolds (and beyond) as far as confidence in Dubas’ recipe.
 
If Shanahan is reserving judgement, I think that’s the most prudent place to be in terms of seeing how 2022-23 unfolds (and beyond) as far as confidence in Dubas’ recipe.

I wouldn't have extended Dubas now either, tbh.

He's great, but not perfect, and GM talent isn't rare like player talent is. A GM does have to win eventually.

I'm (fairly) confident this organization won't be hiring dinosaurs anymore.
 
Leafs since 18-19

#3 Regulation Wins
#5 Points Percentage
#32 Shootout Wins
#11 Playoffs Wins
You would expect these with our core regardless of the GM though no? This seems like our floor.

Shanahan must be viewing Dubas from a stagnation point of view now. I like what @Havoc is saying about the graph always trending upwards but now in need of a larger increase year to year.
 
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If they're right, then it follows that some are more lucky than others, therefore there exists GMs more lucky than Dubas since we experience bad luck and should use one of them to increase our luck.
Just because luck exists, it doesn't mean it's tied to any individual.
 
I wouldn't have extended Dubas now either, tbh.

He's great, but not perfect, and GM talent isn't rare like player talent is. A GM does have to win eventually.

I'm (fairly) confident this organization won't be hiring dinosaurs anymore.

Maybe not a super endorsement for Dubas, but I would tend to hold off on the GM regime change until we stick handle around the Matthews negotiations and he’s locked in, and there’s a meaningful cap increase. I just don’t see how the next GM wouldn’t be nibbling around the fringes of the roster either, and a wholesale mandated roster shakeup could be damaging in ways we don’t want.
 
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Lameduck situations for both the president and the GM are not ideal. But no reason for either one of them to give it much lip service. I'd assume that the situation is:

1) Have another winning regular season yet still fail to win in the 1st round then both Shanahan and Dubas are gone.
2) Have any semblance of extended struggles in the regular season be it from goaltending issues, languishing at or below playoff qualification level, perceived team instability, etc. Possible mid-season changes.
3) Win a round, 1 year extension reprieve offer.
4) Win multiple rounds, get a proper extension.
5) Win the Stanley Cup, get crowned King of Toronto.
 
I don't really get the lame duck comments. Dubas has been signing contracts and making trades. Lame duck GMs usually do nothing because it all needs to go through approval. We will get a better feel for his freedom come TD time. I doubt they put any cuffs on him.
 
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Just because luck exists, it doesn't mean it's tied to any individual.

There is an area of science that explores what character traits derive better luck so you are incorrect.

It's safe to assume that if someone values the idea of luck in hockey highly, they will value the traits that research suggests obtains more luck and look for these in their GM / players / style of play (generalities altered to make sense within a hockey context of course).
 
I don't really get the lame duck comments. Dubas has been signing contracts and making trades. Lame duck GMs usually do nothing because it all needs to go through approval. We will get a better feel for his freedom come TD time. I doubt they put any cuffs on him.
The worry with the "Lame Duck" is that their only concern is about the present to get results and hopefully an extension.
 
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The worry with the "Lame Duck" is that their only concern is about the present to get results and hopefully an extension.

That’s not actually too bad though. Cause the Leafs core is young so if they mortgaged the future to accelerate the here and now it’s exactly what we need. We basically want Dubas to keep his job and do some major damage in the playoffs and if it costs some of our prospect capital that’s fine. It’s not like the JFJ and Quinn eras where there was no core to move ahead with.
 
I don't really get the lame duck comments. Dubas has been signing contracts and making trades. Lame duck GMs usually do nothing because it all needs to go through approval. We will get a better feel for his freedom come TD time. I doubt they put any cuffs on him.
Exactly this. Lame duck GM's have their powers stripped and are essentially figureheads with no authority. It really has zero to do with contract status.

But that thought gives a huge boner to a lot on this board though.
 
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