Athletic: Dubas Job on the Line this Season (contract expiring after this season)

[Stephen]

We're not talking about Dubas talking to his boss. We're not even really talking about the reasons for things that happened. We're talking about the basic realities of luck and probability.

Luck and probability are always going to be a factor and can be discussed privately - but implies a lack of control whenever your faults are discussed for public consumption. So best to not reference them as some unique factor. It just sounds like an excuse.

 

[Shooter2x]

Out of curiosity I googled this luck thing since you guys refuse to stop talking about it and there actually is a lot of interesting stuff on it lol.

It said risk taking leads to more luck.

Patrick Kane

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Well, somebody suggested some wild theory that to believe in luck and probability, one would have to want Dubas fired because according to them, luck is tied to people and Dubas is inherently unlucky because of his personality traits, and the luck of NHL teams are reliant on the personal luck of their GM for some reason... So some things had to be set straight...

Don't play cheap. I never claimed Dubas is unlucky or lacks traits that research shows leads to more luck.

It was simple logic play that wasn't supposed to be taken serious, starting from dubas being unlucky already given to me for free.

Then you made a false (not false sorry, but not true either) statement about luck that a lot of people with phDs don't agree with.

/topic

 

[Dekes For Days]

Luck and probability are always going to be a factor and can be discussed privately - but implies a lack of control whenever your faults are discussed for public consumption. So best to not reference them as some unique factor. It just sounds like an excuse.

I care about discussing things properly and accurately, not whether something "sounds like an excuse". I don't think there's a problem with acknowledging things publicly, but this is only being discussed privately anyway, so not sure what you're referring to.

 

[Havoc]

Anyone else randomly craving some Lucky Charms right now

 

[DraftSchmaft]

This is getting out of hand I call truce. Hash out the lameduck one now, luck is complete.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I never claimed Dubas is unlucky or lacks traits that research shows leads to more luck
It was simple logic play that wasn't supposed to be taken serious, starting from dubas being unlucky already given to me for free.
Then you made a false statement about luck that a lot of people with phDs don't agree with.

Your entire post was based on the premise that Dubas was unlucky. If it wasn't supposed to be taken seriously, I don't know why you took it seriously when the issue with your "simple logic play" was pointed out, or why you chose to double down by incorrectly referencing unproven theories and applying them in incorrect ways. You've taken personality traits having potential minimal impacts on personal success, and turned that into luck is caused by personality traits and is tied to an individual and that individual and only that individual's personal luck transfers to their company so firing Dubas will make our team luckier.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Your entire post was based on the premise that Dubas was unlucky. If it wasn't supposed to be taken seriously, I don't know why you took it seriously when the issue with your "simple logic play" was pointed out, or why you chose to double down by incorrectly referencing unproven theories and applying them in incorrect ways. You've gone from personality traits having potential minimal impacts on personal success, to luck is caused by personality traits and is tied to an individual and that individual and only that individual's personal luck transfers to their company so firing Dubas will make our team luckier.

You want it to become something more complicated than it actually was. I don't even know how to respond any more so for everyone elses sanity, you win. I lose. Let it go.

 

[Felix the Cat Potvin]

Actually I think Dekes is onto something. Given that luck is our major weakness, Dubas should establish a "Luck Excellence Department," headed up by one of our hundred assistant GM's, where we could scientifically research luck, develop good karma, and make offerings to the hockey gods (the new Robidas Island?).

 

[Stephen]

I care about discussing things properly and accurately, not whether something "sounds like an excuse". I don't think there's a problem with acknowledging things publicly, but this is only being discussed privately anyway, so not sure what you're referring to.

Why does luck need to be “acknowledged” by a GM in the media when the team loses? We all know luck exists in sports, as well as probability. I would be more interested in the acknowledgement of team construction shortcomings and potential offseason solutions to remedy. Things you can control as a GM.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Actually I think Dekes is onto something. Given that luck is our major weakness, Dubas should establish a "Luck Excellence Department," headed up by one of our hundred assistant GM's, where we could scientifically research luck, develop good karma, and make offerings to the hockey gods (the new Robidas Island?).

That's not remotely close to anything I said.

Why does luck need to be “acknowledged” by a GM in the media when the team loses?

It doesn't need to be acknowledged by a GM in the media when the team loses. It also doesn't need to be avoided like the plague.

 

[Stephen]

Actually I think Dekes is onto something. Given that luck is our major weakness, Dubas should establish a "Luck Excellence Department," headed up by one of our hundred assistant GM's, where we could scientifically research luck, develop good karma, and make offerings to the hockey gods (the new Robidas Island?).

I just have a hard time visualizing previous management regimes rationalizing poor performances or sub optimal results as attributed to luck and probability.

-We trade Rask and keep Pogge, well that was a 50/50 pick ‘em.

-Miss the playoffs between 2006 and 2012? What are the chances of that repeating in a 100 year sample?

-Re-do the 2008 draft all over again, I’m sure we’d only land on Luke Schenn 40% of the time.

-Trade the Seguin and Hamilton picks for Phil Kessel? The odds of the Leafs surrendering the 2nd and 8th overall picks in consecutive years was 1/1000.

-4-1 lead in the third period of a Game 7? Literally 1/135,000 we would blow that.

What I’m getting at is surely there’s a luck factor when things go wrong, but highlighting it just feels like an excuse and you don’t need it for public consumption. Move on, do better.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I just have a hard time visualizing previous management regimes rationalizing poor performances or sub optimal results as attributed to luck and probability.
~
What I’m getting at is surely there’s a luck factor when things go wrong, but highlighting it just feels like an excuse and you don’t need it for public consumption. Move on, do better.

It feels like you think something's been said by the current management regime that hasn't been said.

 

[notbias]

Listened to Mackinnon's interview the other day and him realizing the importance of the entire lineup in order to win in the playoffs. I don't see that on this team.

Well, looks like he doesn't want to win anymore with that contract then.

 

[Notsince67]

I don't think anyone wants to be a lame duck. He's done a great job deflecting that but it's human how one feels about that.

he is what he is

 

[NinjaKick]

sometimes you have to make your own luck, i.e. by putting yourself in favourable positions.

...but what the hell do I know? I'm not a scientist, I'm just a chef.

 

[GreytWun]

Dubas shouldn’t even be the GM this year let alone next year.

 

[Notsince67]

Anyone else randomly craving some Lucky Charms right now

Funny you say that. I have a craving for a game of horseshoes.

 

[LaPlante94]

I've been critical of some moves and roster construction but it's kind of dumb to say Dubas has done a horrible job as GM. Came in and made some moves to get rid of bad contracts. I think when all those contracts were officially off the cap finally and the roster was officially his and after he signed our core group (I was critical of the Marner contract) we got hit with a global pandemic that not just screwed up our cap situation, but the entire leagues. Cap was gonna rise and they knew this and those contracts wouldn't have killed our cap as bad as they do now but now we gotta wait until the 25/26 season to see it increase like it would've before the pandemic hit.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

IMO, if it is true that he hasn't been extended they need to give him a two year deal immediately.

WUT?

 

[57 Years No Cup]

If you think of Dubas as a Theo Epstein level innovator who is going to do X, Y, Z for your franchise and deliver a championship, he’s got one bullet left in the chamber but largely under delivered. But on the other hand I’m not sure you kick him out since you already paid for all the growing pains and largely kept the unique core together all this time. A new GM isn’t going to dramatically improve the recipe in a flat cap.

The core is "unique" in the fact that they are the only core in NHL history to have lost in the first round of the playoffs 6 years in a row.

So yeah, "unique".

In Sports, and Real Life, if you don't achieve the goals set out for you, you are replaced. Someone is getting replaced, if they fail to reach their goals this year. It might be Dubas, it might be Keefe, it might be Shanahan, it could be all of them.

This ain't no party
This ain't no disco
This ain't no foolin' around.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

I think Dubas gets this bonus season based on navigating the team through the pandemic schedule and the individual success of players last year. In most instances he's canned already.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

What an accomplishment !

An even bigger one than the year before where we lost in the first round to the eventual Cup Finalists Montreal Canadiens.

That one was good but man, last year's first round loss just hit different.

This year was better because they got respect in the handshake line.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I'm not much of a fan of Dubas as a GM, but I'd still extend him.

 

[TorMapleJays]

So losing by a goal to the 2 time defending cup champs while outscoring them means a failed approach?

This is reason #1 why most of the good posters have stopped posting.

Nice, but unfortunately aggregate scoring is only used in Soccer.