Around the NHL 10 - 2022/23

[Channelcat]

I think Matthews started a trend which, while I think it makes Winnipeg's and markets similar to Winnipeg's jobs tougher, is pretty pro player, which is to maximize the years that the player has the most control over.

If Dubas had wanted to sign him for longer than 5 years it would've cost even more money than 5 years.

Yes, but Matthews had no leverage. I think GMs need to hold the line in these cases Trading an elite prospect is viewed like the end of the world. It isn't.

At the time they could have almost certainly moved him for the 1st OA which would be Dahlin...... arguably you end up with a player just as good(better IMO) and cheaper. Half the price on 2nd deal too.

 

[tbcwpg]

Yes, but Matthews had no leverage. I think GMs need to hold the line in these cases Trading an elite prospect is viewed like the end of the world. It isn't.

At the time they could have almost certainly moved him for the 1st OA which would be Dahlin...... arguably you end up with a player just as good(better IMO) and cheaper. Half the price on 2nd deal too.

I think it's nuts to believe that A) trading Matthews wouldn't have meant he'd have been fired B) that Dahlin is just as good (I won't even address better). Matthews had leverage. He was Auston Matthews. That's like saying McDavid had no leverage, or Malkin, or Ovechkin.

It's easy to say that, given Toronto's playoff results that they haven't been successful, but they gave themselves a chance every year. I watch a lot of Toronto and without Matthews at that point they were screwed.

 

[Channelcat]

I think it's nuts to believe that A) trading Matthews wouldn't have meant he'd have been fired B) that Dahlin is just as good (I won't even address better). Matthews had leverage. He was Auston Matthews. That's like saying McDavid had no leverage, or Malkin, or Ovechkin.

It's easy to say that, given Toronto's playoff results that they haven't been successful, but they gave themselves a chance every year. I watch a lot of Toronto and without Matthews at that point they were screwed.

Dahlin is better than Matthews though. But regardless, it's moot. As for Matthews, he could have played in Europe I guess.

1 of 2 things happened. Dubas got played or Dubas committed fraud.

 

[bustamente]

Dubas got bent over by both Marner and Mathews at the time and the money he gave to Tavares could of been better spent in other key area's of need, ie top Dman and of better starting goaltender.

 

[Flair Hay]

Yeah Toronto didn't learn from the Pens or the Hawks enough. They got the studs part right. But they never truly acknowledged that surrounding their stars with grit everywhere in the lineup is almost as important as having skilled players for them to play with.

07/08 Pens had older supporting cast and Hawks was younger. But both had pain in the ass to play against in their whole bottom six that insulated their stars and drove the opposition stars crazy.

Kadri traded, Hyman let go...

Sucks for them but they have to move Nylander or Marner for some cheap depth that is exactly what the team needs.

It will hurt in the regular season. But all 4 lines matter in the playoffs. And their stars just don't have enough support.

 

[tbcwpg]

Yeah Toronto didn't learn from the Pens or the Hawks enough. They got the studs part right. But they never truly acknowledged that surrounding their stars with grit everywhere in the lineup is almost as important as having skilled players for them to play with.

07/08 Pens had older supporting cast and Hawks was younger. But both had pain in the ass to play against in their whole bottom six that insulated their stars and drove the opposition stars crazy.

Kadri traded, Hyman let go...

Sucks for them but they have to move Nylander or Marner for some cheap depth that is exactly what the team needs.

It will hurt in the regular season. But all 4 lines matter in the playoffs. And their stars just don't have enough support.

The Pens and Hawks both benefitted from having their big stars on either the ELC or their first contract off of their ELC, which was generally a cheap deal before cashing in (eg Letang). Even then, given the way the cap worked, they were still pricy contracts. Crosby's deal was 14.5% of the cap at that point. Malkin signed for 15.34% of the cap on his first deal off of ELC. Toews took 11.9%, so did Kane. Matthews and Marner are within that range of cap %. Do you think the Pens suffered for having 30% of the cap tied up in 2 forwards?

Toronto has plenty of grit. They lost in the 2nd round this year because of Bobrovsky and ill timed collapses. 2 OT losses. The bad start to the 2nd period in Game 2. The Core Four went cold. To suggest Toronto loses because they don't have depth, or they aren't "gritty" enough, or whatever, is not accurate. They hit a hot goalie and their mental game yet again fell apart.

Also, @Channelcat 's suggestion that Matthews had no leverage is not true. If you want to paint Dubas as a bad GM, fine I don't agree, but the arguments should at least make sense. Dahlin better than Matthews, Matthews had no leverage/could've played in Europe, Dubas somehow committed fraud, all not serious arguments.

 

[Channelcat]

The Pens and Hawks both benefitted from having their big stars on either the ELC or their first contract off of their ELC, which was generally a cheap deal before cashing in (eg Letang). Even then, given the way the cap worked, they were still pricy contracts. Crosby's deal was 14.5% of the cap at that point. Malkin signed for 15.34% of the cap on his first deal off of ELC. Toews took 11.9%, so did Kane. Matthews and Marner are within that range of cap %. Do you think the Pens suffered for having 30% of the cap tied up in 2 forwards?

Toronto has plenty of grit. They lost in the 2nd round this year because of Bobrovsky and ill timed collapses. 2 OT losses. The bad start to the 2nd period in Game 2. The Core Four went cold. To suggest Toronto loses because they don't have depth, or they aren't "gritty" enough, or whatever, is not accurate. They hit a hot goalie and their mental game yet again fell apart.

Also, @Channelcat 's suggestion that Matthews had no leverage is not true. If you want to paint Dubas as a bad GM, fine I don't agree, but the arguments should at least make sense. Dahlin better than Matthews, Matthews had no leverage/could've played in Europe, Dubas somehow committed fraud, all not serious arguments.

RFAs have zero leverage. They sit or sign.

 

[tbcwpg]

RFAs have zero leverage. They sit or sign.

In theory, but in reality certain RFAs have leverage by being superstar or close to superstar status players and having players like Matthews sit is a good way to turn the fan base away from you. Also no way a star RFA player like that will sign long term anyway if the relationship sours

All it takes is a bad start to the season for the RFA to have all the leverage, especially in the case of star players.

 

[Flair Hay]

The Pens and Hawks both benefitted from having their big stars on either the ELC or their first contract off of their ELC, which was generally a cheap deal before cashing in (eg Letang). Even then, given the way the cap worked, they were still pricy contracts. Crosby's deal was 14.5% of the cap at that point. Malkin signed for 15.34% of the cap on his first deal off of ELC. Toews took 11.9%, so did Kane. Matthews and Marner are within that range of cap %. Do you think the Pens suffered for having 30% of the cap tied up in 2 forwards?

Toronto has plenty of grit. They lost in the 2nd round this year because of Bobrovsky and ill timed collapses. 2 OT losses. The bad start to the 2nd period in Game 2. The Core Four went cold. To suggest Toronto loses because they don't have depth, or they aren't "gritty" enough, or whatever, is not accurate. They hit a hot goalie and their mental game yet again fell apart.

Also, @Channelcat 's suggestion that Matthews had no leverage is not true. If you want to paint Dubas as a bad GM, fine I don't agree, but the arguments should at least make sense. Dahlin better than Matthews, Matthews had no leverage/could've played in Europe, Dubas somehow committed fraud, all not serious arguments.

We will have to agree to disagree here.

 

[cbcwpg]

You know your franchise is questionable when a coach in the Vegas / Dallas series does a drive by....

"To me, the (biggest indicator of our lack of) desperation was we had 24 giveaways tonight," the Golden Knights head coach said after the Dallas Stars defeated his club 4-2 in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final to cut Vegas' series lead to 3-2.

"I'm not sure you're beating the Arizona Coyotes in January with 24 giveaways," Cassidy continued.

 

[bustamente]

Nice planning by the NHL tonight, the Celtics /Heat game 7 is going to get massive numbers, while the Stars /Knights elimination game will garner peanuts.

 

[Jets 31]

Nice planning by the NHL tonight, the Celtics /Heat game 7 is going to get massive numbers, while the Stars /Knights elimination game will garner peanuts.

No one said the NHL was smart, just look at the DOPS department.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I think Matthews started a trend which, while I think it makes Winnipeg's and markets similar to Winnipeg's jobs tougher, is pretty pro player, which is to maximize the years that the player has the most control over.

If Dubas had wanted to sign him for longer than 5 years it would've cost even more money than 5 years.

Long term it is a great strategy for Toronto as they will be able to sign Premier UFAs at at young age.

 

[kanadalainen]

That's like saying McDavid had no leverage, or Malkin, or Ovechkin.

It's easy to say that, given Toronto's playoff results that they haven't been successful, but they gave themselves a chance every year. I watch a lot of Toronto and without Matthews at that point they were screwed.

In the seven years of playoffs, Matthews has 22 goals and 22 assists (44 points), with a net +1, or 6.28 points per playoff year.

Those are decent stats for a #1 pick and former Rocket winner: not bad, but its not fantastic. Just over 3 goals/3 assists (6.3 points) per average playoff year.

- In 15 years of playoffs Malkin has 180 points with a net of +6 which is 12 points per playoff year.

- McDavid has, in 5 years of playoffs, 75 points (+16) which is 15 points per playoff year, better than Malkin or Matthews (or Ovy). That includes the horrible stats he showed with the loss to Winnipeg in '21.

In 14 years of making the playoffs, Ovechkin has 72 goals and 69 assists (141 points), or 10.1 points/playoff year.

In rank order:

McDavid - 15.0 points/playoff year (cap hit = 12.5)
Malkin - 12.0 points/playoff year (currently his cap hit is 6.1)
Ovy - 10.1 points/playoff year. (cap hit = 9.538)
Matthews - 6.28 points/playoff year (cap hit = 11.64)

Conclusion - Matthews' numbers are significantly lower when compared to the tier occupied by McDavid, Malkin or Ovy, especially wrt playoff performances.

Matthews is comparable to William Nylander, on the other hand. 40 points in 7 playoff years or 5.71 points/playoff year.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

he got a high bridge with a 9 million q/o, I'm sure they would have rather signed him to a long term deal if he was willing...

“During this process this summer, I kind of thought back to three years prior when I was going through my contract situation then,” said Tkachuk. “Throughout the whole process after my entry-level, I was just like ‘No, [I want to sign for] six, seven, eight years. What are we doing?’ And nothing really came from it.”

Tkachuk held out for most of the preseason prior to the start of the 2019-20 regular season, inking a three-year deal with the Flames worth $7 million per season on September 25.


“In the middle of training camp, [Treliving] was like, ‘The only way we can keep this team together is [signing you for] three years.’ I was like ‘Okay, this isn’t my ideal situation.'”

“So fast forward three years, I get to this point and I’m kind of just sitting back and watching everything unfolding… When I didn’t sign before the RFA period, I wanted, given my rights, to be able to talk to other teams just to see different paths, or what could go on with other teams. Cause there was a little bit of uncertainty with me in Calgary. To be honest, once I had that talk with [Panthers GM Bill Zito] during the RFA period I knew Florida was the route I wanted to go down. Even though I wanted that, there was no guarantee.”

 

[FonRiesen]

In the seven years of playoffs, Matthews has 22 goals and 22 assists (44 points), with a net +1, or 6.28 points per playoff year.

View attachment 713620

Those are decent stats for a #1 pick and former Rocket winner: not bad, but its not fantastic. Just over 3 goals/3 assists (6.3 points) per average playoff year.

- In 15 years of playoffs Malkin has 180 points with a net of +6 which is 12 points per playoff year.

- McDavid has, in 5 years of playoffs, 75 points (+16) which is 15 points per playoff year, better than Malkin or Matthews (or Ovy). That includes the horrible stats he showed with the loss to Winnipeg in '21.

View attachment 713626

In 14 years of making the playoffs, Ovechkin has 72 goals and 69 assists (141 points), or 10.1 points/playoff year.

In rank order:

McDavid - 15.0 points/playoff year (cap hit = 12.5)
Malkin - 12.0 points/playoff year (currently his cap hit is 6.1)
Ovy - 10.1 points/playoff year. (cap hit = 9.538)
Matthews - 6.28 points/playoff year (cap hit = 11.64)

Conclusion - Matthews' numbers are significantly lower when compared to the tier occupied by McDavid, Malkin or Ovy, especially wrt playoff performances.

Matthews is comparable to William Nylander, on the other hand. 40 points in 7 playoff years or 5.71 points/playoff year.

Wouldn't it be more fair to compare p/game in the playoffs?

McD 1.53
Matthews 0.88
Nylander 0.80 (I'm assuming he's had the same # of playoff games as Matthews, unless he was injured at some point?)

Not disagreeing with your overall conclusions, but I think it's less noisy data. Malkin/Ovi/Crosby/etc would require me to dig for data beyond your post...

(edit - and that's only offense - another interesting comparison might be goal differential per game: it's not a predictive stat, but it is decently descriptive of what happened while he was on the ice... Not that he owns 100% of that result)

 

[tbcwpg]

In the seven years of playoffs, Matthews has 22 goals and 22 assists (44 points), with a net +1, or 6.28 points per playoff year.

View attachment 713620

Those are decent stats for a #1 pick and former Rocket winner: not bad, but its not fantastic. Just over 3 goals/3 assists (6.3 points) per average playoff year.

- In 15 years of playoffs Malkin has 180 points with a net of +6 which is 12 points per playoff year.

- McDavid has, in 5 years of playoffs, 75 points (+16) which is 15 points per playoff year, better than Malkin or Matthews (or Ovy). That includes the horrible stats he showed with the loss to Winnipeg in '21.

View attachment 713626

In 14 years of making the playoffs, Ovechkin has 72 goals and 69 assists (141 points), or 10.1 points/playoff year.

In rank order:

McDavid - 15.0 points/playoff year (cap hit = 12.5)
Malkin - 12.0 points/playoff year (currently his cap hit is 6.1)
Ovy - 10.1 points/playoff year. (cap hit = 9.538)
Matthews - 6.28 points/playoff year (cap hit = 11.64)

Conclusion - Matthews' numbers are significantly lower when compared to the tier occupied by McDavid, Malkin or Ovy, especially wrt playoff performances.

Matthews is comparable to William Nylander, on the other hand. 40 points in 7 playoff years or 5.71 points/playoff year.

He's 10th in the NHL in the past 5 years for points per game (Marner is 15th). In the last 3 years, he's 7th. In the last 2 seasons, he's tied with Connor McDavid for most goals, but he did it in 19 fewer games. They've had their most successful regular seasons with him, ever. They don't get in the conversation to be playoff disappointments without Matthews (or Marner, but we're talking about Matthews here).

He hasn't taken the next step in the playoffs, sure. No disagreement there. I think people like to ignore the regular season with these discussions, which, fine, you don't win the Cup in the regular season, but we're not discussing the Leafs as being perennial playoff chokers without those two because they're fighting for wild card spots without them.

He's a top 5 player in the league right now, easily, and probably top 3. To suggest he had no leverage in his RFA negotiations - laughably wrong. To suggest he's somehow overpaid because of the playoffs - laughably wrong. To suggest Rasmus Dahlin of all players is better than him - uproariously, laughably wrong. Were peak Malkin and Crosby better than him? Probably. That doesn't suggest he's not a superstar player that is deservedly the focal point of a team that's trying to be competitive now. Two years in a row now they've been good enough to probably be in the Cup Finals if not for some, again, ill timed blips and a very hot goaltender.

 

[DRW204]

Wouldn't it be more fair to compare p/game in the playoffs?

McD 1.53
Matthews 0.88
Nylander 0.80 (I'm assuming he's had the same # of playoff games as Matthews, unless he was injured at some point?)

Not disagreeing with your overall conclusions, but I think it's less noisy data. Malkin/Ovi/Crosby/etc would require me to dig for data beyond your post...

yes. the Leafs dont go far he wont have huge scoring totals each playoff-year. he may be a reason why the do not go far for sure, but other factors such as goaltending (theirs and the opposition) could be of higher significance. compare his totals relative to the rest of his team each PO/year would be a bit a bit more appropriate. they're playing 6.25gp per PO-year, expecting 15 pts/PO-year like mcdavid would be a stretch, however i would expect a player of caliber of matthews hover around the PPG range (which is basically 1 extra point every 6 games or so based on his current career pace).

 

[snowkiddin]

Never thought I’d see people fighting for their lives defending the Matthews contract in the Jets forum but here we are

 

[gojetsgo]

“During this process this summer, I kind of thought back to three years prior when I was going through my contract situation then,” said Tkachuk. “Throughout the whole process after my entry-level, I was just like ‘No, [I want to sign for] six, seven, eight years. What are we doing?’ And nothing really came from it.”

Tkachuk held out for most of the preseason prior to the start of the 2019-20 regular season, inking a three-year deal with the Flames worth $7 million per season on September 25.


“In the middle of training camp, [Treliving] was like, ‘The only way we can keep this team together is [signing you for] three years.’ I was like ‘Okay, this isn’t my ideal situation.'”

“So fast forward three years, I get to this point and I’m kind of just sitting back and watching everything unfolding… When I didn’t sign before the RFA period, I wanted, given my rights, to be able to talk to other teams just to see different paths, or what could go on with other teams. Cause there was a little bit of uncertainty with me in Calgary. To be honest, once I had that talk with [Panthers GM Bill Zito] during the RFA period I knew Florida was the route I wanted to go down. Even though I wanted that, there was no guarantee.”

and how much money do you think it would have cost calgary to do a long term deal if a bridge cost them 7? he may have been willing to do long term at a price but calgary wanting to go the bridge route is not "dicking him around". it's easy now to look back and say they should have bit the bullet and went long term with him after b2b 100 point seasons but what if it went the same as his 2 seasons before the break out happened?

 

[DRW204]

Never thought I’d see people fighting for their lives defending the Matthews contract in the Jets forum but here we are

for a forum that gets butthurt whenever the leaves get mentioned on sportsnet or w/e they do get talked a whole lot on here

 

[kanadalainen]

Wouldn't it be more fair to compare p/game in the playoffs?

McD 1.53
Matthews 0.88
Nylander 0.80 (I'm assuming he's had the same # of playoff games as Matthews, unless he was injured at some point?)

Not disagreeing with your overall conclusions, but I think it's less noisy data. Malkin/Ovi/Crosby/etc would require me to dig for data beyond your post...

(edit - and that's only offense - another interesting comparison might be goal differential per game: it's not a predictive stat, but it is decently descriptive of what happened while he was on the ice... Not that he owns 100% of that result)

Less noisy? Probably! I didn't do this analysis in the cleanest manner, but its interesting to me to look at the numbers, which I have never done. Lets call it a start.

BTW Matthews has played in 44 playoff games, Nylander in 50 games. Their playoff numbers (p/game) are very close, as you have pointed out.

There are so many ways to really get after their performance... but I know from the cohort mentioned (McD, Ovy, Malkin and Matthews) that I would never call them as equally valuable in the playoffs. My gut feeling was not completely incorrect methinks.

 

[snowkiddin]

for a forum that gets butthurt whenever the leaves get mentioned on sportsnet or w/e they do get talked a whole lot on here

The part that gets me is how Sportsnet/TSN hammers home how amazing the Leafs are year after year (which, I get it, they have the largest fanbase/audience in Canada) only to have them fail year after year. I am enjoying watching the fireworks now after having to deal with hearing about how great the Leafs are on TV for 10 months of the year.

 

[kanadalainen]

He's a top 5 player in the league right now, easily, and probably top 3. To suggest he had no leverage in his RFA negotiations - laughably wrong. To suggest he's somehow overpaid because of the playoffs - laughably wrong. To suggest Rasmus Dahlin of all players is better than him - uproariously, laughably wrong. Were peak Malkin and Crosby better than him? Probably. That doesn't suggest he's not a superstar player that is deservedly the focal point of a team that's trying to be competitive now. Two years in a row now they've been good enough to probably be in the Cup Finals if not for some, again, ill timed blips and a very hot goaltender.

I'm not making any of those arguments. Like you, I don't buy the Dhalin argument either.

However..for a top 3 or top 5 player (your designation)..

Playoffs are where Matthews' legacy will be formed. While he still may have 8 -10 good years left in him (and time to become a "winner" on the stats sheet), he has shown that he doesn't play to his regular season potential under playoff stress, and so I wouldn't place this player in the same tier as the others that you previously mentioned. Thats my point actually.

Matthews simply does not come through as a superstar in the playoffs, and that applies under the guidance of more than one coach, and more than one system.

Perhaps he just is one of those players that takes forever to mature into a true leader.

The rest of the argument - that he should be good enough, oh gee, he ran into a hot goaltender, hey wow he's a regular season superstar (which he is).... is all handwaving at this point. Maybe he will pan out become a big-time leader and help win a cup someday. So far, nada.

If he is a REAL hands-down superstar, by all means let's see him take the superstar initiative and put the team on his back. This is in the finest tradition of Drai, McD, Malkin, Ovy, heck even the current version of Tkachuk (can't believe I said that)! Lets see it!

Key goals and superstardom (talking about series tilting goals) go hand in hand. Going ice-cold in key moments does not equate to superstardom.

It would be nice to see, but so far that has not happened.

 

[kanadalainen]

yes. the Leafs dont go far he wont have huge scoring totals each playoff-year. he may be a reason why the do not go far for sure, but other factors such as goaltending (theirs and the opposition) could be of higher significance.

Good point! The two results are inextricably intertwined. The positive correlation is quite strong. And, somehow, a very few players can overcome poor play by their team mates and win a series by themselves.