Around the NHL 10 - 2022/23

[TommyKillian]

But here is the thing. If the Jets were to keep everyone the same ( Other than PLD, everyone has at least 1 more year under contract, so kicking it down the road for 1 more year is easy ) to go for it, then you are going for it.

The issue is, the trade deadline happens before the playoffs, so if the plan is to "go for it", and you are in the playoffs, say you are 1st in the conference, you at that point can't trade anyone away or you will kill you chances of playoff success. So if you are in the playoffs and going for it , you will lose everyone you might want to trade, after the season, for nothing.

There is no "trade everyone after next year" because of timing, you have to trade them before next year is done, or get nothing for them. And if Chevy is happy with getting nothing for his assets, I have an issue with that.

Now if this team was giving out the vibes that they are actually good enough as is to win the Cup, maybe I would feel different, but IMO, as is, we are a wild-card team at best, and going nowhere in the playoffs.

The initial post (which acknowledged how unusual it would be) contemplated signing one or two year contracts with PLD, Scheif and Helley, so by kicking the can down the road one more year, we would still have the chance to trade everyone.

I don't see any juggernaut teams right now in the league, so I think it is wide open if the right team goes on a run. New Jersey, assuming they sort out their goaltending, is the only team that I can see having one or two unstoppable runs in the next five years. Tampa is in decline, Colorado will be in tough missing Landeskog, and other than that, it's pretty wide open. Buffalo and Ottawa are emerging but haven't shown anything yet. Edmonton may never overcome their biggest flaws.

All this makes it very tempting to take one more shot, and I suspect Chevy feels the same way. I absolutely agree though, I don't want to pull a Columbus and lose these guys for free. If they don't sign very short term deals, trade them all for the best return.

 

[surixon]

The initial post (which acknowledged how unusual it would be) contemplated signing one or two year contracts with PLD, Scheif and Helley, so by kicking the can down the road one more year, we would still have the chance to trade everyone.

I don't see any juggernaut teams right now in the league, so I think it is wide open if the right team goes on a run. New Jersey, assuming they sort out their goaltending, is the only team that I can see having one or two unstoppable runs in the next five years. Tampa is in decline, Colorado will be in tough missing Landeskog, and other than that, it's pretty wide open. Buffalo and Ottawa are emerging but haven't shown anything yet. Edmonton may never overcome their biggest flaws.

All this makes it very tempting to take one more shot, and I suspect Chevy feels the same way. I absolutely agree though, I don't want to pull a Columbus and lose these guys for free. If they don't sign very short term deals, trade them all for the best return.

Interesting thoughts. I'm curious though but why do guys like Helle, Scheifele, Dubois agree to 1 or two year deals. If I'm their agents I'm looking at long term big dollar last deals for Scheifele and Helle. There is a risk for them signing one year and then getting hurt or having a bad year or two in their 30's. Dubois might be ok with it but he's been taking risks on short term contracts for a whil now and may want some financial security.

 

[bustamente]

RFA,s will take a deal that gets them to UFA the quickest. UFA’s in pretty well all scenarios will take the longest term and most cash, Jet players will not be the exception

 

[JetsFan815]

What is the incentive for those guys to sign a 1-2 year deals. You would have to offer like 15 million per year for 2 years to make themc consider it and even so you could only realistically do that with one guy (probably Helle)

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

With Florida looking to win the series, I'm likely cheering for them. I hate Vegas...

 

[bustamente]

Does DOPS have the balls to suspend Benn not that is really matters to the final outcome for the Stars

 

[Oilpeg]

Something to consider, assuming Vegas wins this, which they should...

2018 - Jets lose to the Knights who lose in the Cup final.
2019 - Jets lose to the Blues who win the Cup.
2021 - Jets lose to the Canadiens who lose in the Cup final.
2023 - Jets lose to the Knights who are either going to win the Cup or lose in the final.

That's four of six years that the Jets lose to the Western Conference Champion in the playoffs. Doesn't excuse their effort in all the elimination games and the rotten taste in our mouths from them, but this team keeps losing to the best team in the West. Maybe there's some kind of solace to take from this?

Would I run it back? No. Have I heard that they will? Sadly, yes.

 

[gojetsgo]

Something to consider, assuming Vegas wins this, which they should...

2018 - Jets lose to the Knights who lose in the Cup final.
2019 - Jets lose to the Blues who win the Cup.
2021 - Jets lose to the Canadiens who lose in the Cup final.
2023 - Jets lose to the Knights who are either going to win the Cup or lose in the final.

That's four of six years that the Jets lose to the Western Conference Champion in the playoffs. Doesn't excuse their effort in all the elimination games and the rotten taste in our mouths from them, but this team keeps losing to the best team in the West. Maybe there's some kind of solace to take from this?

Would I run it back? No. Have I heard that they will? Sadly, yes.

the only way they would run it back is if players re-sign and I think anyone knows if anyone is staying as of yet

 

[Daximus]

the only way they would run it back is if players re-sign and I think anyone knows if anyone is staying as of yet

Yeah running it back should be hinged on whether Scheif/Helle resign. If neither does and this team decides to run it back I question why they are in charge of an NHL team when they are that stupid.

 

[surixon]

Something to consider, assuming Vegas wins this, which they should...

2018 - Jets lose to the Knights who lose in the Cup final.
2019 - Jets lose to the Blues who win the Cup.
2021 - Jets lose to the Canadiens who lose in the Cup final.
2023 - Jets lose to the Knights who are either going to win the Cup or lose in the final.

That's four of six years that the Jets lose to the Western Conference Champion in the playoffs. Doesn't excuse their effort in all the elimination games and the rotten taste in our mouths from them, but this team keeps losing to the best team in the West. Maybe there's some kind of solace to take from this?

Would I run it back? No. Have I heard that they will? Sadly, yes.

Where did you hear that they will run it back?

 

[TommyKillian]

What is the incentive for those guys to sign a 1-2 year deals. You would have to offer like 15 million per year for 2 years to make themc consider it and even so you could only realistically do that with one guy (probably Helle)

@surixon

I initially said this would be highly unusual so don't think it is likely at all.

But Helley potentially does it if he thinks it's his best shot at a Cup. We know he wants to win and it is unlikely a proper contender will be able to afford him as a UFA.

Dubois might do it for the same reason, if the Jets undertake to trade him where he wants to go after the season. Though he hasn't outright said it, this would only work if he thinks this team actually has a shot and wants to be part of it.

Then perhaps Scheifele signs long-term.

Again, not saying it's likely, but assuming the Jets think they can contend next year with this core, what are their options without mortgaging the future/letting valuable assets walk for nothing.

 

[Daximus]

@surixon

I initially said this would be highly unusual so don't think it is likely at all.

But Helley potentially does it if he thinks it's his best shot at a Cup. We know he wants to win and it is unlikely a proper contender will be able to afford him as a UFA.

Dubois might do it for the same reason, if the Jets undertake to trade him where he wants to go after the season. Though he hasn't outright said it, this would only work if he thinks this team actually has a shot and wants to be part of it.

Then perhaps Scheifele signs long-term.

Again, not saying it's likely, but assuming the Jets think they can contend next year with this core, what are their options without mortgaging the future/letting valuable assets walk for nothing.

I think Scheif and Helle will be looking to cash in long term. They've been underpayed relative to their stats for awhile now and both will want to make sure they strike while the iron is hot. So there is a slight chance that if the Jets offer them the value they think they are worth they sign long term and probably keep their options open with something like a 16 team NTC's to ensure we don't move them to non-playoff teams or at least teams they view as non-playoff teams. Scheif coming off a 42 goal season and Helle getting another Vez nod might make them think this is the high point to cash in so if the Jets are willing to spend it they probably take it.

 

[buggs]

I think Scheif and Helle will be looking to cash in long term. They've been underpayed relative to their stats for awhile now and both will want to make sure they strike while the iron is hot. So there is a slight chance that if the Jets offer them the value they think they are worth they sign long term and probably keep their options open with something like a 16 team NTC's to ensure we don't move them to non-playoff teams or at least teams they view as non-playoff teams. Scheif coming off a 42 goal season and Helle getting another Vez nod might make them think this is the high point to cash in so if the Jets are willing to spend it they probably take it.

All of which, in my mind, runs counter to Chevy and TNSE's approach to players contracts.

In certain respects it is a very sensible approach - balance in general throughout your salary distribution looking to pay relatively fair market value. There are exceptions I think they would find acceptable, an example would be Wheeler's salary. We all suspected it would become an albatross at the end but at the time Wheeler was the leader of the team coming off an excellent season and showing no signs of aging - his deal at the time was realistically fair market value (the term arguably questionable, but reasonable in the sense of the old salary paradigm where guys got big contracts on their last deal). Combine that with his perceived leadership on a competitive team where you've just gotten rid of your recent captain and it's not objectionable. But it was the only salary like that on the team and played nearly perfectly to expire with the need to pay someone else that salary level moving forward - Scheifele is my expected choice the Jets thought would get the next big deal.

I think the Jets cannot continue to do this and are going to struggle in some senses with the model they try to run with. Hellebuyck with a Vezina and two nominations additionally is $10 million plus in this league at the moment. Not because goalies should necessarily make that much of the cap, but because some GM in the league will think it's a good idea.

Couple that with Scheifele, as you say, coming off a 42 goal season (the latter half of the year was, IMO, the weakest accumulation of goals relative to team impact imaginable but that's another subject). There is no question that Scheifele is an offensive force and there's likely a GM out there that sees him as the missing piece if he's available (he'd be a hell of a potent winger on a team with solid Cs). So his market value is going to be somewhere in the range of $8-10 million on the open market.

So can the Jets accommodate a Toronto-esque salary structure with 3 players making relatively large sums of money (Wheeler is still here for another year)? It seems Toronto hasn't succeeded as of yet, so it may not be the most prudent model.

Like you say, both Scheifele and Hellebuyck are going to be looking to cash in long term, deals of 7-8 years if they can get them. Both are likely to be albatross types of contracts at the end, like Wheeler's relative to production value. I would like to think that the league has gotten smarter than that. I would like to think that I'm not foolish at times. Neither is likely true.

I'd much rather the Jets take 2-3 steps backward given the performance of this core. Accept they aren't going to win as constructed and extract your value while you can. I think TNSE adamantly would disagree with me.

 

[DRW204]

to me the Jets had a HOF level goalie, a few great players for the last 5+ years on great deals and failed to make noise safe for one season. i don't know the probability of winning suddenly improves by a large margin once you sign those said-players to larger deals/cap-hits through their decline years. this team i think really needs to rebuild, which means trading Helle, but i feel like they will not.

 

[Daximus]

All of which, in my mind, runs counter to Chevy and TNSE's approach to players contracts.

In certain respects it is a very sensible approach - balance in general throughout your salary distribution looking to pay relatively fair market value. There are exceptions I think they would find acceptable, an example would be Wheeler's salary. We all suspected it would become an albatross at the end but at the time Wheeler was the leader of the team coming off an excellent season and showing no signs of aging - his deal at the time was realistically fair market value (the term arguably questionable, but reasonable in the sense of the old salary paradigm where guys got big contracts on their last deal). Combine that with his perceived leadership on a competitive team where you've just gotten rid of your recent captain and it's not objectionable. But it was the only salary like that on the team and played nearly perfectly to expire with the need to pay someone else that salary level moving forward - Scheifele is my expected choice the Jets thought would get the next big deal.

I think the Jets cannot continue to do this and are going to struggle in some senses with the model they try to run with. Hellebuyck with a Vezina and two nominations additionally is $10 million plus in this league at the moment. Not because goalies should necessarily make that much of the cap, but because some GM in the league will think it's a good idea.

Couple that with Scheifele, as you say, coming off a 42 goal season (the latter half of the year was, IMO, the weakest accumulation of goals relative to team impact imaginable but that's another subject). There is no question that Scheifele is an offensive force and there's likely a GM out there that sees him as the missing piece if he's available (he'd be a hell of a potent winger on a team with solid Cs). So his market value is going to be somewhere in the range of $8-10 million on the open market.

So can the Jets accommodate a Toronto-esque salary structure with 3 players making relatively large sums of money (Wheeler is still here for another year)? It seems Toronto hasn't succeeded as of yet, so it may not be the most prudent model.

Like you say, both Scheifele and Hellebuyck are going to be looking to cash in long term, deals of 7-8 years if they can get them. Both are likely to be albatross types of contracts at the end, like Wheeler's relative to production value. I would like to think that the league has gotten smarter than that. I would like to think that I'm not foolish at times. Neither is likely true.

I'd much rather the Jets take 2-3 steps backward given the performance of this core. Accept they aren't going to win as constructed and extract your value while you can. I think TNSE adamantly would disagree with me.

Yeah in the end what I would do as someone who has zero money to make in this situation and what TSNE would do who are always looking to make more money are two different things. They'll pay the lip service of; "yeah we are all about building a team that will win it all" but in all honesty just having a product that fills seats and ensures some kind of playoff appearences is probably good enough for them.

With that in mind I have a feeling that ensuring they keep Scheif and Helle is probably their #1 goal coming into next season. Especially because it's likely Dubois is out and they are looking to fill that #2 C spot again.

I think losing all of Helle, Scheif and Dubois is likely more of a step backward than many will care to admit around here though. We are likely a sub-bubble team without those 3. Not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to draft in the top 3 barring some lottery luck. It's going to lead to some painful years but in the end might be worth it. All 3 of those guys will likely fetch some nice futures as rentals.

 

[Oilpeg]

Where did you hear that they will run it back?

Flimsy at best, but I heard it through a connection within the Hurricanes organization. It's not exactly solid proof or anything concrete, but a connection within the league thinks they will run it back. I hope they're wrong.

 

[cbcwpg]

“Obviously didn't want to take a five-minute penalty, but when the game happens fast, emotions are high," Benn said. "Obviously I would've liked to not fall on him, and I guess use my stick as the landing point."

**
Sorry that I tripped and fell on your neck while trying to break it.

"Fallen?" --- the guy didn't fall, he dove onto him.

 

[ERYX]

@surixon @Oilpeg does one even need a source to think it's likely they "run it back" yet again? It seems to be in TNSE's DNA to make no substantial changes and just keep trying the same thing over and over again. How many off seasons have we anticipated significant change and nothing happens? Last season for sure many people were saying "surely they HAVE to change something" and nothing changed.

To me, we need change even more than last off season, and we need BIG change. HOWEVER, without any sources at all, just based on past behaviour, I think there's less than 5% chance we see the changes needed. I think I'm just going to tune out next season and after the either fail to make the playoffs or get turfed in yet another gutless first round performance, the UFAs force the issue by walking for nothing and then there's change but in the least advantageous circumstances possible. Hate to be so pessimistic, but that's how I'm feeling today based on the history.

 

[surixon]

All of which, in my mind, runs counter to Chevy and TNSE's approach to players contracts.

In certain respects it is a very sensible approach - balance in general throughout your salary distribution looking to pay relatively fair market value. There are exceptions I think they would find acceptable, an example would be Wheeler's salary. We all suspected it would become an albatross at the end but at the time Wheeler was the leader of the team coming off an excellent season and showing no signs of aging - his deal at the time was realistically fair market value (the term arguably questionable, but reasonable in the sense of the old salary paradigm where guys got big contracts on their last deal). Combine that with his perceived leadership on a competitive team where you've just gotten rid of your recent captain and it's not objectionable. But it was the only salary like that on the team and played nearly perfectly to expire with the need to pay someone else that salary level moving forward - Scheifele is my expected choice the Jets thought would get the next big deal.

I think the Jets cannot continue to do this and are going to struggle in some senses with the model they try to run with. Hellebuyck with a Vezina and two nominations additionally is $10 million plus in this league at the moment. Not because goalies should necessarily make that much of the cap, but because some GM in the league will think it's a good idea.

Couple that with Scheifele, as you say, coming off a 42 goal season (the latter half of the year was, IMO, the weakest accumulation of goals relative to team impact imaginable but that's another subject). There is no question that Scheifele is an offensive force and there's likely a GM out there that sees him as the missing piece if he's available (he'd be a hell of a potent winger on a team with solid Cs). So his market value is going to be somewhere in the range of $8-10 million on the open market.

So can the Jets accommodate a Toronto-esque salary structure with 3 players making relatively large sums of money (Wheeler is still here for another year)? It seems Toronto hasn't succeeded as of yet, so it may not be the most prudent model.

Like you say, both Scheifele and Hellebuyck are going to be looking to cash in long term, deals of 7-8 years if they can get them. Both are likely to be albatross types of contracts at the end, like Wheeler's relative to production value. I would like to think that the league has gotten smarter than that. I would like to think that I'm not foolish at times. Neither is likely true.

I'd much rather the Jets take 2-3 steps backward given the performance of this core. Accept they aren't going to win as constructed and extract your value while you can. I think TNSE adamantly would disagree with me.

I think the Jets have shown that they will pay market rate for players. The issue is the Jets lucked out and got most of their players signed to long term deals before they busted out.

They did pay big dollar deals to pending UFA's like Buff, Wheeler and Little so they will spend money to keep their UFA's.

Wheeler's Salary has no bearing on any Helle/Scheifele extension as it will be off the books when those kick in. While you are right to single out Toronto I can single out teams like Tampa who won with a number of key players making big cash. Ditto with Pittsburgh winning b2b with their core making up a high percentage of the cap.

The question isn't if TNSE will pay it it's if A) The players want to stay, and B) If these are the right two players to pay big money to play into their late 30's. My thoughts are it won't be worth it as Scheifele won't move the needle enough as a player.

 

[cbcwpg]

It's getting expensive for people trying to take a piece out of Stone.

 

[surixon]

@surixon @Oilpeg does one even need a source to think it's likely they "run it back" yet again? It seems to be in TNSE's DNA to make no substantial changes and just keep trying the same thing over and over again. How many off seasons have we anticipated significant change and nothing happens? Last season for sure many people were saying "surely they HAVE to change something" and nothing changed.

To me, we need change even more than last off season, and we need BIG change. HOWEVER, without any sources at all, just based on past behaviour, I think there's less than 5% chance we see the changes needed. I think I'm just going to tune out next season and after the either fail to make the playoffs or get turfed in yet another gutless first round performance, the UFAs force the issue by walking for nothing and then there's change but in the least advantageous circumstances possible. Hate to be so pessimistic, but that's how I'm feeling today based on the history.

You know I am on your side but then I found this article on the Pittsburgh shenanigans this past year and it kind helps show how things can work in an NHL front office. It certainly helps explain why cores that have stagnated don't get broken up despite all the evidence that things have run its course.

Seems to me you can get power struggles between coach/ownership and GM (Sully had his backers and Hextall had his with the coach winning out) coach circumventing the gm and getting a contract from ownership (sounds familiar).

Plan was in place to breakup the core but plans changed because Crosby convinced ownership otherwise. The group was also scared to move out it's chief marketing players as they felt it would have an adverse impact on tocket sales.

Chaos, loathing and the Big Three: How the Penguins unraveled

Ron Hextall and Brian Burke's Penguins were defined by chaotic trades, internal conflict and the near-disbanding of three franchise icons.

theathletic.com

So after reading this I can understand why big changes are often slow coming and why cores aren't dismantled as quickly as they should be. One) players don't want the cores dismantled and Two) owners aren't quick to move out their most marketable players.

I still think the players won't give the org any choice though as I don't see any of the three electing to sign and stick around.

 

[Daximus]

You know I am on your side but then I found this article on the Pittsburgh shenanigans this past year and it kind helps show how things can work in an NHL front office. It certainly helps explain why cores that have stagnated don't get broken up despite all the evidence that things have run its course.

Seems to me you can get power struggles between coach/ownership and GM (Sully had his backers and Hextall had his with the coach winning out) coach circumventing the gm and getting a contract from ownership (sounds familiar).

Plan was in place to breakup the core but plans changed because Crosby convinced ownership otherwise. The group was also scared to move out it's chief marketing players as they felt it would have an adverse impact on tocket sales.

Chaos, loathing and the Big Three: How the Penguins unraveled

Ron Hextall and Brian Burke's Penguins were defined by chaotic trades, internal conflict and the near-disbanding of three franchise icons.

theathletic.com

So after reading this I can understand why big changes are often slow coming and why cores aren't dismantled as quickly as they should be. One) players don't want the cores dismantled and Two) owners aren't quick to move out their most marketable players.

I still think the players won't give the org any choice though as I don't see any of the three electing to sign and stick around.

We have an interesting dynamic here as multiple players have said they won't sit through a rebuild and multiple players have said they think our core is a cup contender and that they want to be on a cup contender. So I'm guessing if management decides to pony up they will stick around but if one domino falls the rest will follow suite and demand a trade or want out.

The ball is likely entirely in TSNE's court right now and I don't think they have the stomach to move on from this core. So I expect them to resign both Scheif and Helle ASAP, move on from Dubois and be back on the wagon of trying to find another 2C whether that is in house or on the UFA/trade market. They'll likely give Bones as much rope as he needs and if he has any kind of prolonged failure (not making playoffs for a couple seasons in a row) they will move onto the next coach.

TSNE is about as conservative as they come in this sport. They are completely averse to making changes and they certainly aren't in favor of making changes for the sake of making changes. All that matters is the revenue. So until they start seeing an even bigger decline in attendance and potentially no playoff revenue they will not make any changes. Status quo is what they want.

The fans see this season as a crossroads but I don't think TSNE see's it that way at all. They see it as buisiness as usual. Try and try and try to sign the guy that wants out and then trade him at the last possible second. Sign the guys that want to keep giving it a shot as soon as you possibly can. Rinse and repeat.

 

[DRW204]

Think Seattle/Francis should be up there. ahead of Sweeney maybe? but hard for BOS not to get recognized with a historic regular season.

Idk this award is tough bc I feel like for an "of the year" award they based it on a cultivation of the previous couple seasons of transactions. like Nill added Marchment, Domi (TDL), Lunkvist, and re-signed Oettinger (as an RFA) and hired a coach

 

[surixon]

We have an interesting dynamic here as multiple players have said they won't sit through a rebuild and multiple players have said they think our core is a cup contender and that they want to be on a cup contender. So I'm guessing if management decides to pony up they will stick around but if one domino falls the rest will follow suite and demand a trade or want out.

The ball is likely entirely in TSNE's court right now and I don't think they have the stomach to move on from this core. So I expect them to resign both Scheif and Helle ASAP, move on from Dubois and be back on the wagon of trying to find another 2C whether that is in house or on the UFA/trade market. They'll likely give Bones as much rope as he needs and if he has any kind of prolonged failure (not making playoffs for a couple seasons in a row) they will move onto the next coach.

TSNE is about as conservative as they come in this sport. They are completely averse to making changes and they certainly aren't in favor of making changes for the sake of making changes. All that matters is the revenue. So until they start seeing an even bigger decline in attendance and potentially no playoff revenue they will not make any changes. Status quo is what they want.

The fans see this season as a crossroads but I don't think TSNE see's it that way at all. They see it as buisiness as usual. Try and try and try to sign the guy that wants out and then trade him at the last possible second. Sign the guys that want to keep giving it a shot as soon as you possibly can. Rinse and repeat.

It really hinges on Mark and Conner. If they are in then they get reupped and we continue on. But if they don't then I can't see them going into the year with both on expiring deals. They might be forced to rebuild whether they like it or not.

So if they run it back then Chevy needs to shore up forward depth. He needs to bring back Name and add another top 6 and middle 6 player. Ideally both new additions have some sandpaper and speed.

Conner Scheifele yyyy
Nino Perfetti Ehlers
Yyyy Lowry Wheeler
Barron Name Appelton

We could also use an upgrade over Pionk on our second pairing and a solid backup to spell off games with Helle.

 

[Buffdog]

It really hinges on Mark and Conner. If they are in then they get reupped and we continue on. But if they don't then I can't see them going into the year with both on expiring deals. They might be forced to rebuild whether they like it or not.

So if they run it back then Chevy needs to shore up forward depth. He needs to bring back Name and add another top 6 and middle 6 player. Ideally both new additions have some sandpaper and speed.

Conner Scheifele yyyy
Nino Perfetti Ehlers
Yyyy Lowry Wheeler
Barron Name Appelton

We could also use an upgrade over Pionk on our second pairing and a solid backup to spell off games with Helle.

Hopefully you'd be able to get one your yyyy in the PLD deal as a cost controlled player with top 6 upside. If they could play centre, it would take some pressure of perfetti

I think Barron Lowry Apples is your 3rd line in perpetuity so you'd be looking for a 4th line winger in FA