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Around the league part 2

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Joe Pavelski really is something else. He turns 39 years old this summer and just keeps on trucking along.

The same age as Matt Greene and Dustin Brown
Only a year younger than Mike Richards

3rd in playoff goals by active players with 70 behind Ovechkin (72) and Crosby (71).

It would be pretty cool if this guy were to win a SC this season.
 
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A quick stats update for the playoffs (64 games total):

Correlation between win % and team Corsi For %: -0.08 (basically none)
Correlation between win % and team Shots For %: 0.29 (low)
Correlation between win % and team expected goals for % (xGF%): 0.32 (low)
Correlation between win % and team PDO: 0.80 (very high)
Correlation between win % and team Shooting %: 0.73 (high)
Correlation between win % and team Save %: 0.33 (low)

(data from Natural Stat Trick)

For this postseason, as with the regular season, a great predictor of success is high PDO. Most interesting is that for this postseason, winning almost entirely driven by a high shooting percentage, and not by save percentage. The top 5 teams in win % (1. VGK, 2. FLA/CAR, 4. DAL, 5. EDM) are all shooting over 11%. NYI, NYR, and COL have the best save % (>91%) and all lost. Counter to conventional wisdom, teams are winning with offense. Doesn't much matter who your goalie is if you can't score.

Also counter to conventional wisdom, expected goals for % and shots for % are not good predictors of who wins so far in the playoffs. These two stats are decent predictors of winning, but only good for a much larger sample. The Panthers are winning with the second worst shots for % (in the playoffs. The Kraken are managing to compete despite having the worst xGF%.
 
lumbergh said:
For this postseason, as with the regular season, a great predictor of success is high PDO. Most interesting is that for this postseason, winning almost entirely driven by a high shooting percentage, and not by save percentage. The top 5 teams in win % (1. VGK, 2. FLA/CAR, 4. DAL, 5. EDM) are all shooting over 11%. NYI, NYR, and COL have the best save % (>91%) and all lost. Counter to conventional wisdom, teams are winning with offense. Doesn't much matter who your goalie is if you can't score.

Also counter to conventional wisdom, expected goals for % and shots for % are not good predictors of who wins so far in the playoffs. These two stats are decent predictors of winning, but only good for a much larger sample. The Panthers are winning with the second worst shots for % (in the playoffs. The Kraken are managing to compete despite having the worst xGF%.
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This seems contradictory though.

If your opponent can't score because of your goalie and defense, then you have a better chance of winning.

Did the Kings lose to the Oilers because they didn't score enough? Or because they didn't contain the Oilers offense?
 
King'sPawn said:
This seems contradictory though.

If your opponent can't score because of your goalie and defense, then you have a better chance of winning.

Did the Kings lose to the Oilers because they didn't score enough? Or because they didn't contain the Oilers offense?
Click to expand...

Flip it, did the Oilers beat the Kings due to their ability to score more?

As with anything, it's both.....you don't have to score 7 goals a game, if you limit your opponent to 2 goals etc.....but if you can't limit your opponent to 2 goals, you absolutely have to be able to score 7 etc
 
5/5
6-1 Devils

5/6
5-1 Oilers

5/7
8-4 Devils
3-2 Panthers
7-2 Kraken

5/8
5-1 Vegas

5/9
6-1 Hurricanes
6-3 Stars


This sucks.

There's only been one competitive playoff game since 5/5. Eight games and only one of them was close.
 
johnjm22 said:
5/5
6-1 Devils

5/6
5-1 Oilers

5/7
8-4 Devils
3-2 Panthers
7-2 Kraken

5/8
5-1 Vegas

5/9
6-1 Hurricanes
6-3 Stars


This sucks.

There's only been one competitive playoff game since 5/5. Eight games and only one of them was close.
Click to expand...

How many of those were close til the last 10 etc?
 
King'sPawn said:
This seems contradictory though.

If your opponent can't score because of your goalie and defense, then you have a better chance of winning.

Did the Kings lose to the Oilers because they didn't score enough? Or because they didn't contain the Oilers offense?
Click to expand...
I'm just giving you the data. The teams with the best save percentages:

New York Islanders, 92.42%
New York Rangers, 91.75%
Colorado Avalanche, 91.43%

All got bounced in the first round. Colorado even cleanly outshot the Kraken. All three shot below 9%. The data clearly indicate that, so far this postseason, you have to shoot a high percentage to win.

Kings shot almost 10% into the net, but still not good enough. PDO of 0.982 is tied for 3rd worst amongst the 16 playoff teams. Similar numbers in terms of high danger shots for and against. Neither goalie was very good, but the Oilers buried their chances.
 
For sure the offseason gets more interesting if Toronto loses today.

Matthews and Nylander are UFAs next offseason. Leafs will have to decide if they want to dump all their futures and go for it one last time with this group.

I doubt Matthews will be a Leaf in 2024/25.
 
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lumbergh said:
I'm just giving you the data. The teams with the best save percentages:

New York Islanders, 92.42%
New York Rangers, 91.75%
Colorado Avalanche, 91.43%

All got bounced in the first round. Colorado even cleanly outshot the Kraken. All three shot below 9%. The data clearly indicate that, so far this postseason, you have to shoot a high percentage to win.

Kings shot almost 10% into the net, but still not good enough. PDO of 0.982 is tied for 3rd worst amongst the 16 playoff teams. Similar numbers in terms of high danger shots for and against. Neither goalie was very good, but the Oilers buried their chances.
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I guess I'm just interpreting the data differently. The defense didn't mitigate some of the dangerous chances, and Korpisalo didn't make some saves he should have made. This led to the Oilers burying their chances, no?

There's a cause and effect of defending and goals being scored. I just think the conclusion of "you need better offense to win" ignores a lot of other critical factors, particularly issues that led to the Kings losing.

And maybe that's where the disconnect is, because I'm applying it specifically to the Kings and your scope is more global, but I think any team who tries to "outscore" Edmonton is going to fail - they have to suppress Edmonton's offense.
 
Another interesting thing about Toronto, is that Marner, Matthews and Nylander don't have movement clauses as of now.

All 3 have NMC's kicking in this coming season.

So while I'm not expecting it to happen, this is just another little incentive to start the rebuild a year earlier if they bow out today.
 
That doesn't sound... good.

345277482_995305238506729_2072716855736285315_n.jpg
 
Similar to Brown’s hit on Roszival in that it was at the whistle. Love it.

On TV they had a close-up of Kampf just staring up at Gudas after the hit. So good.

 
King'sPawn said:
I guess I'm just interpreting the data differently. The defense didn't mitigate some of the dangerous chances, and Korpisalo didn't make some saves he should have made. This led to the Oilers burying their chances, no?

There's a cause and effect of defending and goals being scored. I just think the conclusion of "you need better offense to win" ignores a lot of other critical factors, particularly issues that led to the Kings losing.

And maybe that's where the disconnect is, because I'm applying it specifically to the Kings and your scope is more global, but I think any team who tries to "outscore" Edmonton is going to fail - they have to suppress Edmonton's offense.
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Let’s compare the Kings and Vegas, the Oilers two opponents so far. The Kings save percentage was 882%in round 1 and the Golden Knights sage percentage so far in three games is 89.0%. The Oilers goalie was Skinner in both series. The difference between the Kings losing 4 out of 6 and the Knights winning 2 of 3 is that the Knights have outscored the Oilers 12-10 in the 3 games, shooting 12.2% while the Kings shot just under 10%. The Knights own a 12.1% shooting percentage for their 8 games, the highest of all playoff teams, and also own the best record in the playoffs so far.

Will the trend continue for the Knights? I don’t know, but the difference in the series has not been goaltending.
 
Next game will determine who wins the series between the Panthers and Leaf's.
 
There's a main board thread with the stats on it too but this is the worst goaltending/best shooting in a loooong time and it's an ongoing trend

AKA with those mountains of data you would think a game plan like Todd's would be the LAST thing you would do but here we are
 
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Herby said:
Joe Pavelski really is something else. He turns 39 years old this summer and just keeps on trucking along.

The same age as Matt Greene and Dustin Brown
Only a year younger than Mike Richards

3rd in playoff goals by active players with 70 behind Ovechkin (72) and Crosby (71).

It would be pretty cool if this guy were to win a SC this season.
Click to expand...
One of the best American-born players ever at this point (11th all-time in points). He was easily the least hateable guy on those Sharks teams, that's for sure. :laugh:
 
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