Anyone else concerned about Matthews?

[The Legend]

but this is such a pivotal moment in Leafs history that this kind of a deal will be handled by many in the organisation, and not solely by some kid rookie GM who may be getting pretty good at what he does but nowhere near an experienced GM lol

Ya, the Leafs should bring back an experienced GM like Lou to handle the negotiations. Worked real well with Zaitsev and Marleau.

 

[Menzinger]

Except the Swiss League was better for his development than the CHL.

Yep. To be honest, more star guys from North America should probably think about doing something similar during their draft years.

And not to mention doubtful the chl would have ever been a consideration- if he didn't go to Europe he would have likely done the USHL/NCAA route

 

[hotpaws]

Ya, the Leafs should bring back an experienced GM like Lou to handle the negotiations. Worked real well with Zaitsev and Marleau.

Seemed to work well with

Rielly
Kadri
Brown
Hyman
Andersen

 

[Bomber0104]

Ovechkin was 18.96%, not 16.9%, Matthews didn't come close to that, and that's not even the highest cap hit percentage.

$9,538,462 (Ovie's hit) / $56,700,000 (2008/2009 upper cap limit) = 16.8%

This was the highest his salary ever ate into the the Captials salary cap, and got smaller with each passing year as the upper cap limit increased.

A comparable contract based on that percentage for Matthews with the current 2024/25 estimate of $87.50M would put him at $14.72M for his next deal.

He'll of course still want way more than that, and with way less term, because that's the kind of guy he is really.

 

[Zur En Arrh]

The kid is a monster. While mcd is piling up points Matthews is playing hurt and being the best defence center the universe. Prob multiple universe's. He's going to be a monster in the playoffs and score clutch goals. He's literally the best all round player in the world and he's had a down year from injuries and played through them like the goddamn monster he is. Zero percent worried about him because he will shine in the right moment.

 

[hamzarocks]

The kid is a monster. While mcd is piling up points Matthews is playing hurt and being the best defence center the universe. Prob multiple universe's. He's going to be a monster in the playoffs and score clutch goals. He's literally the best all round player in the world and he's had a down year from injuries and played through them like the goddamn monster he is. Zero percent worried about him because he will shine in the right moment.

Matthews has 1 year the whole career he's been comparable to Mcdavid.

Matthews isn't elite defensively, he isn't a Selke level defensive player, and defense itself does not make up for 40-60 pt gap in production

He's firm back in the race with Mack/Draisaitl/Kuch/Makar for 2nd best after Mcdavid, and right now he's the lowest of that group

 

[Larcos_Unal]

The kid is a monster. While mcd is piling up points Matthews is playing hurt and being the best defence center the universe. Prob multiple universe's. He's going to be a monster in the playoffs and score clutch goals. He's literally the best all round player in the world and he's had a down year from injuries and played through them like the goddamn monster he is. Zero percent worried about him because he will shine in the right moment.

He's not the best defensive center on the team now that we have ROR, nevermind that Bergeron and Barkov exist.

 

[Dekes For Days]

$9,538,462 (Ovie's hit) / $56,700,000 (2008/2009 upper cap limit) = 16.8%
This was the highest his salary ever ate into the the Captials salary cap, and got smaller with each passing year.
A comparable contract for Matthews with the current estimate of $87.50M would put him at $14.72M for his next deal.
He'll of course still want way more than that because that's the kind of guy he is, really.

Ovechkin signed at 18.96% of the cap through ages 23-35 on a currently illegal post-ELC contract. His contract is pretty irrelevant to this discussion, quite frankly, and while yes, the cap didn't abruptly stagnant due to an unexpected worldwide pandemic back then, that's pretty far besides the point.
There's no reason to believe that Matthews will get or even attempt to get 18.96%, or "way more than 14.72m".
Most likely outcome is that Matthews signs this offseason to a pretty reasonable max-term, UFA contract.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Seemed to work well with

Rielly
Kadri
Brown
Hyman
Andersen

Those weren't particularly special contracts for what those players were at the time.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

$9,538,462 (Ovie's hit) / $56,700,000 (2008/2009 upper cap limit) = 16.8%

This was the highest his salary ever ate into the the Captials salary cap, and got smaller with each passing year as the upper cap limit increased.

A comparable contract based on that percentage for Matthews with the current 2024/25 estimate of $87.50M would put him at $14.72M for his next deal.

He'll of course still want way more than that, and with way less term, because that's the kind of guy he is really.

It's silly that Dekes is trying to use that contract as any sort of comparable. A different cba where Ovechkin could sign a 13 freaking year contract. It's the kind of contract where Ovy is overpaid the first few years but the contract is an absolute steal the last few years. Matthews after 5 years gets a huge raise. Ovy has a lowering cap percentage for 13 straight years.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's silly that Dekes is trying to use that contract as any sort of comparable.

Huh? I didn't bring Ovechkin up. The guy you're responding to did.
I literally said it's a horrible comparable, since not only is it a post-ELC contract, it's an illegal contract that stretches through many portions of a player's career.

 

[Bomber0104]

It's silly that Dekes is trying to use that contract as any sort of comparable. A different cba where Ovechkin could sign a 13 freaking year contract. It's the kind of contract where Ovy is overpaid the first few years but the contract is an absolute steal the last few years. Matthews after 5 years gets a huge raise. Ovy has a lowering cap percentage for 13 straight years.

I brought it up since, from my recollection, it's the highest cap hit as a percentage of the salary cap ever recorded...that being the 2008/09 season where his $9.56ish hit occupied 16.8% of the $56.7M salary cap.

I'm willing to bet Matthews will be looking to blow past that percentage, and with far less term.

 

[Strangle]

You'd think back to back scoring titles and an MVP award would allow you a little breathing room, but apparently not.

There are a lot of crazy posters in this thread.

Look at the points and declare Nylander is better than Matthews.

What a joke.

Nylander is having a career season. Good for him, it’s wonderful to see.

Matthews is having a small downturn in an injury riddled season. He’s still going to score ppg+, two time rocket winner, hart trophy winner

But Nylander is having his first ppg year and he’s better? Unbelievable.

The goals are coming, they are more distributed than they have been in the past, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Matthews is an absolute beast, Nylander isn’t on Matthews level

 

[Aashir]

There are a lot of crazy posters in this thread.

Look at the points and declare Nylander is better than Matthews.

What a joke.

Nylander is having a career season. Good for him, it’s wonderful to see.

Matthews is having a small downturn in an injury riddled season. He’s still going to score ppg+, two time rocket winner, hart trophy winner

But Nylander is having his first ppg year and he’s better? Unbelievable.

The goals are coming, they are more distributed than they have been in the past, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Matthews is an absolute beast, Nylander isn’t on Matthews level

We say this because for this season…..he is

Going PPG+ isn’t impressive in this league anymore. There are 48 players going around PPG and around 25 pacing for 90. Two time rocket winner and hart trophy winner isn’t helping him score this season.

No one is acting like nylander is the better player than Matthews from here on. Just this season, nylander has done more for the team than Matthews has

 

[Strangle]

So you agree he won’t score as many in his 2nd 8 years than he did in the 1st, 8. Gretz, didn’t, Ovi didn’t, Lemieux didn’t, Crosby didn’t, Jagr didnt, Stamkos didnt, Hull didnt, nobody did although surprisingly I think Marchand has a shot at it.

The point still remains if you pay 10.5 million per year for the 1st 500, how much for the next 8 if you know he isn’t scoring 500, even if he scores 499.

Why do it like this though? Why compare years 3 and 4 equally to years 15 and 16? That doesn’t make any sense.

Has a player ever scored more goals in this 6,7,8 years than they did in their 1,2,3rd years?

How about years of 2? Has a player ever scored more goals in there 9th and 10th years than their 2nd and 3rd years?

Or even in 4’s?

Are there more goals in years 8-12 than there are in years 12-16? Or in years 1-4?

It’s a stupid thing to compare 35 year old scoring to a 24 year old scoring

 

[HockeyVirus]

Dubas has a track record of sitting on his hands.

There's no way he's traded.

Dubas is either going to sign him to an outrageous deal, or he's going to walk him to UFA.

It's my take and I'll stick with it (HI JFRESH ON TWITTER WHO'S POSTING MY STUFF!!!)

One thing you can't criticize Dubas for is sitting on his hands...One of the more active GM's in the league and not scared to make big and unpopular moves.

 

[Gabriel426]

Did AM came out and hinted he wanted 14-15mil a year or just fan fiction?

 

[Strangle]

We say this because for this season…..he is

Going PPG+ isn’t impressive in this league anymore. There are 48 players going around PPG and around 25 pacing for 90. Two time rocket winner and hart trophy winner isn’t helping him score this season.

No one is acting like nylander is the better player than Matthews from here on. Just this season, nylander has done more for the team than Matthews has

Scoring more points doesn’t equal a better player though. Nylander is the most likely on the team to back away from a puck in the corner, or to lose track of the puck along the boards and start looking up at the rafters, is the least likely in the top 6 to block a shot or play defense.

To say Nylander is a better player than matthews, even just this season, is crazy.

I know there is a subsection of leaf fans that are irrationally defensive of Nylander, and ready to go to war with ‘boomers’ over how amazing he is, I get it.

But this kind of talk is just jumping the shark. There are literally people talking about not giving matthews a raise on his next contract, and that trading him is going to be better than resigning him in this thread.

Like is said, a lot of crazy posters in this thread.

Matthews might not ever hit 60 goals again. It’s not something any player has been able to do automatically in the modern NHL. But he has been automatic for 40 or more his entire career. It’s a down year for him, and still better than any year Nylander has ever had before this year

 

[ACC1224]

Did AM came out and hinted he wanted 14-15mil a year or just fan fiction?

Fiction.
IMO, although I don't expect him to, he should slot in just under Mackinnon.

 

[Menzinger]

Malkin is probably a better guide for Matthews next contracts than others. Matthews took a very similar, but lesser post ELC contract than he did.

 

[kb]

I see the narrative starting already.

Salaries are NOT based on comparing AAV's from different seasons, they are based on percentage of the cap.

So anyone who thinks that Matthews, who has won 2 Rockets, 1st team all star, Hart, Lindsay, etc. will slot behind a guy who hasn't got any of this at all is purely setting up a future "Dubas overpaid" narrative.

 

[WillyC]

I would not be surprised to see Auston sign $12x8… with the finger pointed at Mitch, Willy, JT and ROR.

 

[Jojalu]

He's having a down year

It's pretty normal for most superstars

Drasaitl 2018 eas a down year for him

Mack post rookie 3 seasons were very down

Kucherov 2020 was a down year

McDavid is the only guy not to have a down year who he's been compared to but that's because McDavid is the greatest player in the NHL and like the 2nd or 3rd best all time when he retires behind Gretzky and lemieux

He'll bounce back to 50 goals and 100+ pts next season

For a larger sample, look at Crosby and Ovi's careers.

Crosby bounced around anywhere from 79 points to 120 in a 10 year stretch. He would score 50, then 33. I am not including his injury seasons.

Ovie was considered washed up scoring 33 and notching 69 points.

Look at Sakic. Yzerman.

If Matthews struggles again next year it would start to become concerning. Ovoe had 4 down years in a row then exploded back into a 50 goal scorer.

Crosby had 5 years of points in the 80's then hit 100 again, then went back to an 80 point guy.

Every topic seems to be like the Leafs deal with issues thay no other team/player has ever gone through and the sky is always falling

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Matthews is playing hurt

He’s chronically hurt

 

[Stephen]

He’s chronically hurt

Kind of goes back to team construction. You have a superstar franchise player with a big target on his back and guys like Chiarot, Trouba taking healthy runs every year over the past 6 seasons... and we never built up the physical deterrence to protect him.