Anyone else concerned about Matthews?

[hfman]

If he wants 15m/year then he had better start playing like that kind of player again

Because if next year he performs the same as he did this year then that 15m/year is no longer on the table

 

[RunItBackAgain]

If he wants 15m/year then he had better start playing like that kind of player again

Because if next year he performs the same as he did this year then that 15m/year is no longer on the table

The thing is, this is basically his contract year if he wants to stay here.

 

[hfman]

But he hasn't played like a 15m/yr player this season. At all.

Don't get it wrong he's playing well but not anywhere close to 15m well!


How do you get 15m/yr when your last 2 seasons were that of just a "good player"?

 

[RunItBackAgain]

But he hasn't played like a 15m/yr player this season. At all.

Don't get it wrong he's playing well but not anywhere close to 15m well!


How do you get 15m/yr when your last 2 seasons were that of just a "good player"?

I'm with you it's a lot of money and I'm not sure how he is evaluating that. But at the end of the day we're kind of hamstrung into either giving him whatever he wants, letting him walk, or trading him before July 1st. Very tough situation

If my math is correct that's a 67% chance he leaves by end of next season, and a 100% chance the Leafs get screwed...

 

[hfman]

you're right:

letting him walk - not an option
trading him - other teams will use this 'down' year (and possibly next if he can't return to form) to their advantage and offer less (rightfully so)

which leaves...

sign him - the only option

the only problem is how do you offer him McDavid money when he is clearly not on that level

 

[therealkoho]

It's failed every time It's been tried because he is a winger, a fantastic winger but STRICTLY a winger, I'm aware he was drafted as a center that doesn't make him a center.

Well ok shooter, but I think that's yesterday's news.

You may have noticed that Willy is no longer the selfish 140 foot perimeter player he used to be. Hes dedicated himself in the gym into becoming one of the Leafs strongest forwards.
As he's matured and evolved his game into becoming a responsible, unselfish, 200 foot player, one who wins almost all of his board battles, and a player who doesn't mind getting his nose dirty

His anticipation of the play is top of the class league wide. He's developed all the tools and capabilities that will make him a great centre.

Think Tavares with elite wheels!

 

[therealkoho]

Unlikely to happen.

Dubas truly seems to enjoy walking guys right out the door UFA for nothing so I imagine it will either be that or he re-signs Matthews to a 5 year contract for an absolutely outrageous sum ( to an even worse degree than the RFA deals when the players didn't hold all the power).

Dubas maybe, but the real management in the executive offices aren't about to let something/anything like that happen!

 

[Bomber0104]

Dubas maybe, but the real management in the executive offices aren't about to let something/anything like that happen!

Which outcome?

The walking one they can't control or the signing the cap-crippling $15M+ contract?

 

[therealkoho]

you're right:

letting him walk - not an option
trading him - other teams will use this 'down' year (and possibly next if he can't return to form) to their advantage and offer less (rightfully so)

which leaves...

sign him - the only option

the only problem is how do you offer him McDavid money when he is clearly not on that level

You don't.

The Leafs do not need him to fill the building, but there's other franchises that do.

Which outcome?

The walking one they can't control or the signing the cap-crippling $15M+ contract?

Either, unless he agrees in principle to a contract that they can live with, then he'll be moved at the draft

 

[Bomber0104]

Either, unless he agrees in principle to a contract that they can live with, then he'll be moved at the draft

Dubas has a track record of sitting on his hands.

There's no way he's traded.

Dubas is either going to sign him to an outrageous deal, or he's going to walk him to UFA.

It's my take and I'll stick with it (HI JFRESH ON TWITTER WHO'S POSTING MY STUFF!!!)

 

[Menzinger]

The only time Dubas' has had to deal with a core player potentially hitting UFA (Rielly) he was signed to a below market rate.....

 

[Bomber0104]

The only time Dubas' has had to deal with a core player potentially hitting UFA (Rielly) he was signed to a below market rate.....

The media, fans, and advanced stats community want Rielly off the team.

Not sure if you've heard.

 

[Bomber0104]

Imagine thinking that the Rielly deal will have anything to do with what Matthews is going to do with, sorry, to the Leafs...

He's going to do something, rest assured.

I'm thinking he's going to put the screws to Dubas (or Shanahan) once again, but this time, he's going to make an even more outrageous cap-hit demand, for an even more outrageous term.

Just a hunch.

Matthews ignored the CHL route so he could make a quick 'mill pre-draft in the Swiss league.

For him it's ALWAYS been about the money,

I see no reason to think he won't be using his UFA to the absolute maximum effect here, as well.

 

[hfman]

oh and by the way this Matthews thing won't be handled by Dubas, lol

Austin is the greatest player to lace up for the Leafs in... "forever" possibly... and this franchise is going to leave it up to Dubas alone to work it out? Ha ok...

The Matthews deal will be handled by a number of executives and management above Kyle. He'll also have input as well no doubt... but this is such a pivotal moment in Leafs history that this kind of a deal will be handled by many in the organisation, and not solely by some kid rookie GM who may be getting pretty good at what he does but nowhere near an experienced GM lol

At the end of the day though, Dubas will be awarded the congratulations for it even though he was just a small part of the decision. You know... "who pulls the puppets' strings" kind of thing...


and of course, this is assuming they even get Matthews to sign...

But if Matthews closes out this year as an average player then it's okay, it happens. But if it continues into next year and it's another ho-hum type of year then maybe it won't be so hard to imagine him being traded/moved ?

 

[ANDI P IS CUTE]

holy crap- you guys are missing the entire point- its not hard. HE isnyt shooting like he was last year. period- obv. injury. get surgery ffs.

 

[hobarth]

The only time Dubas' has had to deal with a core player potentially hitting UFA (Rielly) he was signed to a below market rate.....

Below market value?

 

[Menzinger]

Below market value?

Seth Jones and Nurse signed in the same time frame for well above what the Leafs paid for their comparable player

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews smashed the last RFA standard.

He didn't break any standard. He got the 6th highest value post-ELC contract in the cap era. And earned at worst the 5th best.

I imagine he'll want to break the Ovechkin 16.9% cap hit standard he hit

Ovechkin was 18.96%, not 16.9%, Matthews didn't come close to that, and that's not even the highest cap hit percentage.

that 5-year $15M+ contract he's definitely going to be after...

Lol.

"Hockey is all luck-based so any decision can be somehow twisted and spun into a very correct one!"
That paragraph in a nutshell.

Wow, you misunderstood what was being said completely.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Imagine thinking that the Rielly deal will have anything to do with what Matthews is going to do with, sorry, to the Leafs...

He's going to do something, rest assured.

I'm thinking he's going to put the screws to Dubas (or Shanahan) once again, but this time, he's going to make an even more outrageous cap-hit demand, for an even more outrageous term.

Just a hunch.

Matthews ignored the CHL route so he could make a quick 'mill pre-draft in the Swiss league.

For him it's ALWAYS been about the money,

I see no reason to think he won't be using his UFA to the absolute maximum effect here, as well.

Absolutely.

Matthews will say he won the Richard 2 of the past 3 seasons and also a Hart. I don't think he'll tolerate even one hint of disrespect for having one down year. My guess is Matthews signs with the leafs for around 15 x 8. Nylander could likely get around 11x8 on the open market so he'll demand that. Remember, we learned from hfboards last negotiation round that Nylander deserves significantly more money than direct comparables because of his "zone entries". I have not forgotten any of those discussions or "facts". Let's also remember the "taxes" and "media pressure". We had to pay a premium compared to direct comparables. If those things mattered then, they have to still matter now. Marner demands being paid similar money to Matthews. So probably around 14 x 8. In the Tavares overlap year the leafs will have about 49 mil of their cap on 4 forwards. 56.5 mil including Reilly.

Let's say the cap is at 85 mil. 67% of cap on 5 players. 33% for the remaining 17 players.

This is a nightmare.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Remember, we learned from hfboards last negotiation round that Nylander deserves significantly more money than direct comparables because of his "zone entries".

Lol. Nobody ever said this, and Nylander never got "significantly more money than direct comparables".

Let's say the cap is at 85 mil.

The cap is going to be higher than 85m.

This is a nightmare.

I'd say having a bunch of top tier players and a top tier team is quite the dream, not nightmare.

 

[egd27]

That's not true either, obviously. There is no "same thing" in hockey, and hockey is all about variable results.

And yet so many cling to "expected" statistics based on standardized measures.

We have to get a handshake deal in place before July 1st this year

I would go one further and say by the draft.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And yet so many cling to "expected" statistics based on standardized measures.

Weird comment. Hockey not having fixed inputs and outputs doesn't invalidate expected metrics and their usefulness...

 

[Mess]

Either, unless he agrees in principle to a contract that they can live with, then he'll be moved at the draft

Matthews has a full No Move Clause in his final year on his deal, so he isn't going to get traded anywhere without consent.

He got Dubas to give him that so he had full control of his future, and could walk negotiations right up to UFA status if he so desired.

Unless you mean this year's June 2023 draft, because that NMC kicks in July 1st, 2023.

PS. There is still an unknown factor here and that is WHO will be the Leafs GM negotiating that deal, because if the Leafs are out early in this years playoffs again, Leafs might have a NEW GM.

 

[baton elevated]

This is all in my opinion so take it with a grain if salt. I feel AM wants to play in the states and that's fine because $15M is completely off the table for me. I'm not even sure he is the 2nd best player in the league (that's very debatable). There would just be too much money allocated to the forwards.
I'm a huge Willy fan and want to retain him. Marner's argument would be that he deserves big money too if AM gets his. He isn't entirely wrong (not 15M but a raise just the same).
If we would trade AM (60 goal AM) the return would b - should be huge. Maybe 3 very good pieces.
For an example and this just hypothetical.
Zab, Krieger and Fox from the Rangers. Who says no?
Would the leafs be a better team with this trade?

 

[The Legend]

Matthews ignored the CHL route so he could make a quick 'mill pre-draft in the Swiss league.

For him it's ALWAYS been about the money.

Except the Swiss League was better for his development than the CHL.