Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Gabe Kupari]

The more I think about it the even less it makes sense.... and that's Scheifele and Boston. It just doesn't make sense anymore. Boston is known for D first centers, scheif is the exact opposite of the recently retired Bergeron who he'd be replacing. And honestly, if Carlo has a nmc and McAvoy ain't available, there really is nothing of interest there. Swayman? Sure but not as the only piece type thing. Just doesn't fit in my opinion. No 24 1st even. It just... they don't have much of interest if 1 guy isn't available anymore

 

[WolfHouse]

Scheifele was only a -2 in terms of 5 on 5 goal differential the second half of the year. Not great but were system players Lowry and Barron's excuses. Both had worse differentials then Mark.

Anyhow the top of the differential list is mostly top 6 players.

Perfetti 78%
Namestnikov 64%
Wheeler 59%
Ehlers 57%
Appelton 55%
Dubois/Nino 53%
Scheifele 48%
Barron 46%
Lowry 45%
Conner 43%

If anyone should be singled out for awful play it's Conner.

I agree that Connor had an all-around bad year... his shots were way down this year for some reason - the weird thing that almost gives him a pass is that he sucked all year. And if your winger is not back checking, its not causing the same damage as a Centre cherry picking...

Scheif was a 200' player up to Christmas and then his play dropped off fairly consistently and fell off a cliff at the Carolina game. My point is that you can't have that in your 1C.

I do think Bowness overplayed our checking line in that second half - going to a 1A+ line, a 2 checking line and then 3rd scoring and 4th scrap line is so old school and it didn't work.

 

[surixon]

5v5 during the season he was on the ice for 56 goals for and 55 against and had people been able to finish during the second half of the year that number would have improved... +/- is a horrible stat and also would have improved had we been able to score as well... but I guess having a bad +/- means that he stopped playing the system?

Yup, seven of Scheifele's minuses the second half came from empty net goals against.

 

[DRW204]

60% of Jets games they scored 3 GF or less, 45% were 2 or less

3.14 was league average in goals per game.

5v5 during the season he was on the ice for 56 goals for and 55 against and had people been able to finish during the second half of the year that number would have improved... +/- is a horrible stat and also would have improved had we been able to score as well... but I guess having a bad +/- means that he stopped playing the system?

He suffered from some of the worst linemate finishing in the league, and that's while he was still setting them up for chances. It's not just GA to that folks need to factor in.

 

[WolfHouse]

5v5 during the season he was on the ice for 56 goals for and 55 against and had people been able to finish during the second half of the year that number would have improved... +/- is a horrible stat and also would have improved had we been able to score as well... but I guess having a bad +/- means that he stopped playing the system?

I usually don't engage with you because of things like this.... I clearly stated that plus/minus is a very flawed stat but there are a couple of you guys that like to twist things - mostly to protect Scheifele from any criticism.

Why bother quoting full season statistics when I readily acknowledge that Scheifele was a dominant 200' player - really for much of the first half of the season.

He dropped off after that and then was a total asshat from the Carolina game to the end. You can't have that as your team leader...

Yup, seven of Scheifele's minuses the second half came from empty net goals against.

Empty net goals work both ways through the season so I don't think you can really single that out as a defence for Shuffles

 

[surixon]

I agree that Connor had an all-around bad year... his shots were way down this year for some reason - the weird thing that almost gives him a pass is that he sucked all year. And if your winger is not back checking, its not causing the same damage as a Centre cherry picking...

Scheif was a 200' player up to Christmas and then his play dropped off fairly consistently and fell off a cliff at the Carolina game. My point is that you can't have that in your 1C.

I do think Bowness overplayed our checking line in that second half - going to a 1A+ line, a 2 checking line and then 3rd scoring and 4th scrap line is so old school and it didn't work.

Was it because Mark's game fell off substantially or was it because he played mostly with Conner who dragged him down? Back half of the year without Conner he had a positive goal differential and positive metrics. With Conner his differentials cratered as did what they gave up.

I think it's clear Mark is at his best when he doesn't have to try to carry players defensively as he's not capable of it. He looked great with Perfetti in large part because Cole is good in his end so Mark doesn't have to do any heavy lifting.

 

[gojetsgo]

I usually don't engage with you because of things like this.... I clearly stated that plus/minus is a very flawed stat but there are a couple of you guys that like to twist things - mostly to protect Scheifele from any criticism.

Why bother quoting full season statistics when I readily acknowledge that Scheifele was a dominant 200' player - really for much of the first half of the season.

He dropped off after that and then was a total asshat from the Carolina game to the end. You can't have that as your team leader...

you say +/- is a very flawed stat yet that is the only stat you point to in your evidence that scheifele stopped playing the system... criticism of scheifele is fine but singling him out and making up that he stopped playing the system leading to our second half struggles is the problem...

 

[surixon]

I usually don't engage with you because of things like this.... I clearly stated that plus/minus is a very flawed stat but there are a couple of you guys that like to twist things - mostly to protect Scheifele from any criticism.

Why bother quoting full season statistics when I readily acknowledge that Scheifele was a dominant 200' player - really for much of the first half of the season.

He dropped off after that and then was a total asshat from the Carolina game to the end. You can't have that as your team leader...


Empty net goals work both ways through the season so I don't think you can really single that out as a defence for Shuffles

Except in this case they don't. Over the year Mark was -12 in terms of goal differential. That is playing infront of an empty net and playing against one.

 

[WolfHouse]

Ranking and analyzing the NHL’s best and worst first lines this season

The Athletic's Harman Dayal breaks down which first lines around the NHL are producing and which are underperforming this season.

theathletic.com

Just so you don't get hung up on plus/minus... our top line's rating actually improved under Bowness.

We can go through other analytics but at the end of the day when your top line is playing .500 hockey, you are a .500 team and that's not a playoff team.

You can run and gun if McD or Matthews is your 1C but Shuffles is an elite 2C or 1RW and not the guy we want down the middle for another 7 years...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I had a contrary viewpoint at the time, though I wasn't posting here to share it.

Briefly...

The Jets slump coincided with both an uncharacteristic cratering of goaltending and a shooting slump. So, in a number of those games they ended up going down quickly with two or three soft goals against, and then couldn't mount a comeback. There is nothing that looks worse than a team that's playing from behind and can't finish. But in many of those games, the Jets were actually matching or beating teams in shot attempts and danger, but losing (often disheartening losses).

Here is a graphical representation of the Jets shooting / goaltending deficit game-by-game over the season. What is obvious to me is that in the first 40-50 games, the Jets very often had the advantage in terms of save % or were quite close to opponents, but during that awful stretch the Jets were regularly on the losing end of the shooting/saving percentages, often caved in substantially. (Note: segments of the lines inside the red "0" line represent games where the Jets had a save% deficit, and vice-versa).

View attachment 731793

In watching any sport the thing I always find most frustrating to watch are mental mistakes. I was watching buckets of those last year. But good point about the early deficits. I was forgetting about that. I think a lot of those were the results of some of those mental mistakes. The pressure of playing catch-up breeds more mental breakdowns.

I'm only too happy to concede that that situation can explain the difference between those statistics and the eye-test. Because it is a lot better than any other explanation I can think of. And because it could enable more optimism for the coming season. It begs the question though, why were Jets, particularly the goalies, so often not ready for puck drop? That question is just history if it is gone.

 

[WolfHouse]

Except in this case they don't. Over the year Mark was -12 in terms of goal differential. That is playing infront of an empty net and playing against one.

When you put it that way, its actually more damning against the player - your best talent is facing the other teams best talent with an empty net - and we get outscored over the season... that's not a good look.

 

[surixon]

When you put it that way, its actually more damning against the player - your best talent is facing the other teams best talent with an empty net - and we get outscored over the season... that's not a good look.

Well en situations are essentially a pp opportunity and we all know how our pp went into the shitter whe Lauer went down.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mort, I strongly agree with ya on the importance of defensively stronger Forwards mitigating the forwards we already have seen to be weak in that regard. Depth is good but a lot will depend on the new guys getting a feel for line mates and taking initiatives. It’ll take a few weeks of playing together at the very least most of preseason. But the potential is there. I’m keeping my fingers crossed and hoping Bones, Lauer and Arniel can earn their pesos.

There is good reason for optimism for this season. I will remain concerned for the season after that until Scheifele and Helle are either extended or traded.

I've been wondering a bit the last few days what it looks like if one or the other is extended and the other traded? Like Helle to NJD and Scheifele retained, for 1 example. Subject for more thought.

 

[WolfHouse]

Well en situations are essentially a pp opportunity and we all know how our pp went into the shitter whe Lauer went down.

That's a fair point. But again, it also coincides with the Jets trending away from shooting first to looking for the perfect cross ice pass. Could Lauer have stopped that - maybe - but when you look at WAR, GAR, Corsica, JFresh, etc etc etc - Scheifele's offence has not covered for his defensive lapses for several years now...

This SHOULD have changed on Bowness' defence first team.

Its the real end of the season that is bothersome - his performance in hard games down the stretch - Tampa, Boston, Carolina, Calgary, LA is just really not good. Who cares if you score against Detroit and San Jose...

 

[surixon]

That's a fair point. But again, it also coincides with the Jets trending away from shooting first to looking for the perfect cross ice pass. Could Lauer have stopped that - maybe - but when you look at WAR, GAR, Corsica, JFresh, etc etc etc - Scheifele's offence has not covered for his defensive lapses for several years now...

This SHOULD have changed on Bowness' defence first team.

Its the real end of the season that is bothersome - his performance in hard games down the stretch - Tampa, Boston, Carolina, Calgary, LA is just really not good. Who cares if you score against Detroit and San Jose...

The Jets averaged 1 additional shot per game the second half of the year then they did the first half. They weren't shooting any less.

 

[ps241]

So underachieving Chevy going into the 23-24 season minus Flake Wheezer and crybaby Dubois with a netminder and 1C who would rather be elsewhere, 3 top 6 forwards, a below average D on a hope and a prayer!

Welcome back Sip! Where have you been?

 

[WolfHouse]

The Jets averaged 1 additional shot per game the second half of the year then they did the first half. They weren't shooting any less.

Again, not the point I'm making... Scheif was shooting a lot more as his first instinct in the first half of the season and, yes he was still shooting although at a slower pace - we were looking for the right pass in the second half... you still get the shot off but its after 2-3 passes

Morrissey's shots dramatically increased in the second half as he emerged as our leader - I believe the rest of the D shot more too - but until Nino arrived we didn't have guys going to the net... I mean if JoMo nearly doubled his shot tally from the first half of the season - something else had to give right?

 

[Whileee]

Food for thought.

Last 22 gp of the year post Nino acquisition (Names came in 2nd game onward) we were 11-9-2 (20th in pts %), 22th in gf/60 (all strengths) and 1-4 POs. Evidently both PLD and Wheeler still here too with presumably upgraded depth.

Edit: didn't transcribe their league rank properly.

I do think the fwd group is a bit deeper but certainly didn't see it after those two were acquired.

I don't expect to be like that bad over a full year tho as training camp, more chemistry gets built etc

More food for thought...

After Niederreiter's acquisition, the Jets shot metrics and NHL ranking (to the end of the regular season):

5v5 SVA (from @evolvinghockey)

xGF/60: 2.9 (10th)
CF/60: 60.5 (10th)
xGA/60: 2.36 (6th)
CA/60: 51.6 (8th)
xGF%: 55.1% (6th)
CF%: 54.0 (11th)

Based on those metrics, the Jets were one of the top teams in generating 5v5 shots and expected goals, and even better at preventing them.

I think we need to decide if we are going to abandon on-ice shot metrics and focus only on goals and wins/losses as a way of assessing performance.

 

[surixon]

Again, not the point I'm making... Scheif was shooting a lot more as his first instinct in the first half of the season and, yes he was still shooting although at a slower pace - we were looking for the right pass in the second half... you still get the shot off but its after 2-3 passes

Morrissey's shots dramatically increased in the second half as he emerged as our leader - I believe the rest of the D shot more too - but until Nino arrived we didn't have guys going to the net... I mean if JoMo nearly doubled his shot tally from the first half of the season - something else had to give right?

Or did Bones change the offensive scheme halfway through the year to more of a point shot offense? There are plenty of ways to look at this. If the dmen saw a massive increase in shots then that leads me to believe there was a change in tactics.

I also wouldn't doubt if there was a simplifying of offensive tactics the second half as Bones was missing his offensive systems coach most of the second half.

 

[ps241]

The amount of overall comments of system or schemes is funny too as if posters are in the locker/coaching room or analyzing game tape of each individual player, and their opponents'.

I think this team overperformed in the first half in scoring a bit and it had folks with expectations that would last. Several players were playing at career high paces, and then it leveled out in the second half.

This team ended up basically in the same tier of league ranking in Goal scoring stats as 21-22. If they're middle of the pack - 20th overall again, I won't be surprised really. But hoping for better ofc.

I think it’s because its the summer, people like to post, there is not much to talk about, we do have two of our biggest stars at key positions pending UFA’s so that causes debate of what way TNSE should go directionally. In the vaccum to know knew news we can take the same dog for a walk around a block allot

 

[Whileee]

I agree that Connor had an all-around bad year... his shots were way down this year for some reason - the weird thing that almost gives him a pass is that he sucked all year. And if your winger is not back checking, its not causing the same damage as a Centre cherry picking...

Scheif was a 200' player up to Christmas and then his play dropped off fairly consistently and fell off a cliff at the Carolina game. My point is that you can't have that in your 1C.

I do think Bowness overplayed our checking line in that second half - going to a 1A+ line, a 2 checking line and then 3rd scoring and 4th scrap line is so old school and it didn't work.

Here is Scheifele's trend in terms of on-ice expected goals for and against at 5v5.

In the upper chart the red line traces his trend in expected goals against through the season. He had two notably bad stretches early in the season (games 5-10), and mid-season (games 45-50), but he was progressively improved from around game 53 until the end of the season.

In the bottom chart, the red line traces the goals against per expected goal (i.e. goaltending), and the black line traces the goals for per xG (i.e. shooting). The big diversion with a ballooning goals against and dropping goals for created the "minus" on his goals log. That was due to poor goaltending and poor finishing, and as documented before, the poor finishing was due to Ehlers, Connor and Dubois going ice-cold.

 

[ps241]

Was it because Mark's game fell off substantially or was it because he played mostly with Conner who dragged him down? Back half of the year without Conner he had a positive goal differential and positive metrics. With Conner his differentials cratered as did what they gave up.

I think it's clear Mark is at his best when he doesn't have to try to carry players defensively as he's not capable of it. He looked great with Perfetti in large part because Cole is good in his end so Mark doesn't have to do any heavy lifting.

What I like about Perfetti is that he try’s to make plays defensively. He is always aware reading the play looking to jump a route and intercept a pass and he’s good at it. He has some of those Mark Stone instincts. I guess what I am trying to say is his hockey IQ is 200 foot its not just offensive IQ. That is rare for a Jets star skilled forward.

 

[DRW204]

Again, not the point I'm making... Scheif was shooting a lot more as his first instinct in the first half of the season and, yes he was still shooting although at a slower pace - we were looking for the right pass in the second half... you still get the shot off but its after 2-3 passes

Morrissey's shots dramatically increased in the second half as he emerged as our leader - I believe the rest of the D shot more too - but until Nino arrived we didn't have guys going to the net... I mean if JoMo nearly doubled his shot tally from the first half of the season - something else had to give right?

Just an observation

If the strategy was to get dmen shots that's why perhaps gf were less in the second half. Fwds on avg will shoot a higher sh% so dmen shots could be more wasted opportunities.

 

[Whileee]

Again, not the point I'm making... Scheif was shooting a lot more as his first instinct in the first half of the season and, yes he was still shooting although at a slower pace - we were looking for the right pass in the second half... you still get the shot off but its after 2-3 passes

Morrissey's shots dramatically increased in the second half as he emerged as our leader - I believe the rest of the D shot more too - but until Nino arrived we didn't have guys going to the net... I mean if JoMo nearly doubled his shot tally from the first half of the season - something else had to give right?

Scheifele's shot attempts and expected goals per 60 minutes (5v5):

Until January 14 (first 43 games):

Shot attempts: 10.1
Expected goals: 0.7

After January 14 (last 39 games)

Shot attempts: 10.6
Expected goals: 0.87

So, in fact, in the second half of the season Scheifele's rate of shot attempts increased by 5% and his expected goals rate increased by 24%.

 

[DRW204]

I think it’s because its the summer, people like to post, there is not much to talk about, we do have two of our biggest stars at key positions pending UFA’s so that causes debate of what way TNSE should go directionally. In the vaccum to know knew news we can take the same dog for a walk around a block allot

Nah ppl post about it as much during the regular season too. Unless you have high amount viewings of other teams across a variety of opponents hard to consider it a qualified opinion imo.