Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[ps241]

Nah ppl post about it as much during the regular season too. Unless you have high amount viewings of other teams across a variety of opponents hard to consider it a qualified opinion imo.

Sorry you’re losing me on the last sentence.

I admire the stamina folks on here have to discuss rebuild or not for ages

Now I figured it out I meant to quote this post From you. I hit reply to the wrong post.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not sure if I consider any of them significant. I guess Trouba but we did trade him. Buff retired. Little retired. Traded Ladd,Kane,Trouba,Bogo,Laine,Copp and PLD. Bought out Wheeler. Let Myers,Stats, Pavelec and Perreault walk,

Add Frolik to the list of walkers. Add Stuart to buyouts.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I think we need to decide if we are going to abandon on-ice shot metrics and focus only on goals and wins/losses as a way of assessing performance.

Good enough for this guy, good enough for me.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I admire the stamina folks on here have to discuss rebuild or not for ages

How can the discussion go away when it neither happens nor gets the door slammed on it?

 

[Been around]

Don't worry. An avalanche of 10 posts in a row are coming.

Lol I know

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'll let you go and get the data for that...

If shooting and saving aren't important factors in winning and losing games, why does anyone care if the Jets have a good goalie and good shooters?

In any case, I suppose people's ideas are pretty fixed about what happened last season, so I'll not bother to generate any more data / analyses.

Oh don't stop!
Like the conclusions or not, it is always good food for thought. It stimulates some crap and also some good discussion.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sorry @Whileee, I must be old because the first thing that comes to my mind when I see this is it was made by my old spirograph...

And your Spirograph had a few teeth missing.

So underachieving Chevy going into the 23-24 season minus Flake Wheezer and crybaby Dubois with a netminder and 1C who would rather be elsewhere, 3 top 6 forwards, a below average D on a hope and a prayer!

Trust you to bring balance to the conversation Sip.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We dont know that Scheifele wants to be elsewhere, do we?

3 top 6 forwards seems lite. Connor and Scheifele = 1st line. Ehlers, Perfetti, and Vilardi = 2nd line

Iafallo borderline 2nd.

What do we really know about what Helle has said?

I mean we know he said he didn't want to stick around for a rebuild. That is very different than he wants out. There was at least one insider (Dreger?) who talked about him wanting to go to the US but did we ever hear that from Helle? Or anything else other than wanting to contend for a Cup?

We had a couple of - what word to use? - pouty comments from Scheifele in exit interviews but also a lack of really saying that he wants out.

I don't pick up on every statement or rumour. Have I missed any more than that? Fill me in.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Perfetti Scheif Ehlers - I think that is ideal for Mark
Connor Vilardi Iafallo - probably best for KC
Nino Names Kupari
Barron Lowry Apples

 

[Mud Turtle]

Perfetti Scheif Ehlers - I think that is ideal for Mark
Connor Vilardi Iafallo - probably best for KC
Nino Names Kupari
Barron Lowry Apples

It the age old question is… will Lowry ever be played at fourth line center here?

 

[None]

It the age old question is… will Lowry ever be played at fourth line center here?

Feels like a situation like Wheeler where they just refuse to reduce his role for sentimental reasons.

 

[nhlpro]

It the age old question is… will Lowry ever be played at fourth line center here?

I've been saying for years now the Jets will never win the cup until Lowry is our 4C. I sure hope this is the year.

 

[macmaroon]

And your Spirograph had a few teeth missing.

Just like me...

 

[bumblebeeman]

It the age old question is… will Lowry ever be played at fourth line center here?

Is Namestnikov actually better than Lowry tho? I don't think so

 

[sipowicz]

I've been saying for years now the Jets will never win the cup until Lowry is our 4C. I sure hope this is the year.

Stone hands Lowsy actually redeemed himself in my eyes for his PO performance, he was basically the Jets best forward, leave him at 3C

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I think Morrissey should be captain.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Or did Bones change the offensive scheme halfway through the year to more of a point shot offense? There are plenty of ways to look at this. If the dmen saw a massive increase in shots then that leads me to believe there was a change in tactics.

I also wouldn't doubt if there was a simplifying of offensive tactics the second half as Bones was missing his offensive systems coach most of the second half.

Its possible - I don't know why you would change your system when you're fighting for top of the division though... but an interesting thought.

Scheifele's shot attempts and expected goals per 60 minutes (5v5):

Until January 14 (first 43 games):

Shot attempts: 10.1
Expected goals: 0.7

After January 14 (last 39 games)

Shot attempts: 10.6
Expected goals: 0.87

So, in fact, in the second half of the season Scheifele's rate of shot attempts increased by 5% and his expected goals rate increased by 24%.

That's interesting. Again, it doesn't dispute the fact that I think Scheif stopped playing bones system and played an fancy passing game... you still get chances.

Can you single out Scheifele's war/gar for the first and second half? And his shot attemps/exp goals from before March 14 and after? I would be interested to see that

I'd also like to see our shooting percentage on PP with or without Lauer...

It will take a lot to convince me that Scheif played like a 1C in the second half of the season... but it will make me feel better when TNSE pays him $10 for 7 seasons...

Add Frolik to the list of walkers. Add Stuart to buyouts.

Frolik didn't walk. His wife left us - there was an extended debate about that and it was settled that his wife hated Winnipeg haha

Also Olli Jokinen was allowed to leave in UFA... and he was our assistant captain hahaha

 

[ps241]

I don’t mind that we settled for Bones as a transitional coach. He has a backbone and our team needed to learn how to play defense as 5 man units. We were going nowhere in Maurice’s last 3 seasons when the leaders were running the team and we played way to open. That being said we will trade offense for defense under bones. Dallas got better when he was replaced. I don’t mind having him this season though because I do think the personal changes suit the style of game he wants to run.

 

[Whileee]

Its possible - I don't know why you would change your system when you're fighting for top of the division though... but an interesting thought.


That's interesting. Again, it doesn't dispute the fact that I think Scheif stopped playing bones system and played an fancy passing game... you still get chances.

Can you single out Scheifele's war/gar for the first and second half? And his shot attemps/exp goals from before March 14 and after? I would be interested to see that

I'd also like to see our shooting percentage on PP with or without Lauer...

It will take a lot to convince me that Scheif played like a 1C in the second half of the season... but it will make me feel better when TNSE pays him $10 for 7 seasons...


Frolik didn't walk. His wife left us - there was an extended debate about that and it was settled that his wife hated Winnipeg haha

Also Olli Jokinen was allowed to leave in UFA... and he was our assistant captain hahaha

There aren't public sources that I'm aware of that provide xGAR or GAR by season segment.

But the data I've displayed make it very clear that the team and Scheifele both improved in terms of 5v5 shot metrics, but were undermined by poor goaltending and shooting. The PP sank though, but I think that was on coaching as much as anything, with no adaptation and refusal to use Ehlers on PP1 when it went stagnant.

I realize that the data contradict the popular view that developed because the Jets were losing, and people refuse to blame the goalies or bad shooting luck.

My view is based on the data, and what I observed.

If others have data or analyses to back up the view that the Jets and Scheifele's play took a negative turn in the latter part of the season, please share them.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

More food for thought...

After Niederreiter's acquisition, the Jets shot metrics and NHL ranking (to the end of the regular season):

5v5 SVA (from @evolvinghockey)

xGF/60: 2.9 (10th)
CF/60: 60.5 (10th)
xGA/60: 2.36 (6th)
CA/60: 51.6 (8th)
xGF%: 55.1% (6th)
CF%: 54.0 (11th)

Based on those metrics, the Jets were one of the top teams in generating 5v5 shots and expected goals, and even better at preventing them.

I think we need to decide if we are going to abandon on-ice shot metrics and focus only on goals and wins/losses as a way of assessing performance.

Again, Nino and Names came in and played Bowness system - get to the front of the net, allow shots from the D or the boards, get dirty goals... most importantly they played their role in the system.

There's really three chapters to last season
Game 1 to Montreal game Jan 17 - very solid with some improvement needed
Jan 17 to trade-in deadline March/top line benching March 14 - basically a disaster, some top players not playing lowness system and other players trying to do too much
Trade deadline to end of season - playing bowness system again but Scheif sulking

I think we are crediting Scheif instead of Morrissey drastically stepping up his game and carrying the team in many ways. That's my main point

We are picking on KFC - but I look at his XGF, etc and it doesn't look terrible.

There seems to be blame for the second half on our Vezina candidate goalie.

Break the stats down into those three chapters and maybe we understand what happened... the slump really does match up with Lauer's absence

 

[surixon]

What I like about Perfetti is that he try’s to make plays defensively. He is always aware reading the play looking to jump a route and intercept a pass and he’s good at it. He has some of those Mark Stone instincts. I guess what I am trying to say is his hockey IQ is 200 foot its not just offensive IQ. That is rare for a Jets star skilled forward.

It seems to be the mold the team is looking for these days. Players that are good in their end but also have offensive upside. It seems our acquisitions for the Perfetti core really fit that mold.

Vilardi fits it as a defensive C/W that has hands and can finish.

McGroarty is a good all around player.
Barlow is in the Vilardi mold. Solid defense and good hands and shot.
Lucious is intelligent and solid in his end from what I remember.

So while hockey IQ is still the most valued trait they are looking for a bit different player types with their top picks and chief trade acquisitions.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

There aren't public sources that I'm aware of that provide xGAR or GAR by season segment.

But the data I've displayed make it very clear that the team and Scheifele both improved in terms of 5v5 shot metrics, but were undermined by poor goaltending and shooting. The PP sank though, but I think that was on coaching as much as anything, with no adaptation and refusal to use Ehlers on PP1 when it went stagnant.

I realize that the data contradict the popular view that developed because the Jets were losing, and people refuse to blame the goalies or bad shooting luck.

My view is based on the data, and what I observed.

If others have data or analyses to back up the view that the Jets and Scheifele's play took a negative turn in the latter part of the season, please share them.

At the end of the day, statistics are good - but without context, we can make a business lose money/make money/breakeven in any given year with the same revenue/expenses.

Bowness benched Scheif for a reason, Helle is a vezina nominated goalie.

I am 100% agreeing that Lauer's absence was costly to this team - but the stats and eye test on Scheif don't match...

xGF% 5v5 matches my eye test for the season... just so no one accuses me of hating fancy stats
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This rating matches what most of us saw this season...

Nino and Names get a pass on the xGF rating because of small sample size

 

[surixon]

Its possible - I don't know why you would change your system when you're fighting for top of the division though... but an interesting thought.


That's interesting. Again, it doesn't dispute the fact that I think Scheif stopped playing bones system and played an fancy passing game... you still get chances.

Can you single out Scheifele's war/gar for the first and second half? And his shot attemps/exp goals from before March 14 and after? I would be interested to see that

I'd also like to see our shooting percentage on PP with or without Lauer...

It will take a lot to convince me that Scheif played like a 1C in the second half of the season... but it will make me feel better when TNSE pays him $10 for 7 seasons...


Frolik didn't walk. His wife left us - there was an extended debate about that and it was settled that his wife hated Winnipeg haha

Also Olli Jokinen was allowed to leave in UFA... and he was our assistant captain hahaha

I think it changed moreso when the offense started to dry up. Bones was looking for answers and elected to simplify to a point shot/,crash the net scheme. I believe that is what the Scheifele and him spat was about.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

To be fair I split the season into 4 chapters... based on quick xGF%

Chapter 1 - Game 1 to December 1
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- Our fancy stats are pretty bad - in fact, these stats are terrible and its quite possible goaltending and Bowness system is carrying the team
- JoMo and Perfetti a lot worse than I thought
- Wheeler, Scheif, Connor, Pionk in our top ten though
- Sam gagner with a strong start

Dec 1 to Montreal Game (PLD's party haha)
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is on fire - the bottom six is driving our success
- Jomo and Perfetti getting their game
- Samberg and Schmidt pairing might be something...
- Only DeMelo, Connor, Pionk under 50
- Honestly surprised Scheif is not higher

PLD Party to Scheif's Benching
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is cracking - Scheif, Wheeler, Jomo, Pionk, Stenlund are now liabilities
- Perfetti, Dillon, Samberg and Dubois driving the team
- Stenlund and Lowry fall - so does the impact of our bottom six

Carolina Game to the End - Names/Nino era
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is dominant - only players under xGF55$ are Pionk, Scheif and Connor
- Suddenly Jomo, Ehlers and Lowry are on fire
- Nino and Names are good players
- Our worst top players down the stretch are Pionk, Connor and Scheif...

There's my deep dive.

This lines up a lot more with the eye test than simply a shooting drought and Helle disappearing...

Interesting things I learned
- Samberg is A LOT better than we think
- JoMo may not be the anchor we think he is
- Scheif did NOT have a 200' game resurgence in the first half... he ranged from 47-51% all year
- Wheeler is a very very good player if we had played him on the third line - I knew that though
- The first 20 games - this team sucked on paper - is that because they were playing Bowness' non-scoring system?
- PLD played harder than any of our other top players
- The Jets played their BEST hockey of the year after the top line was benched - Scheif and Connor did not

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Here's what we conclude from xGF%
- Of our top six, only PLD and Perfetti scored more than they allowed this season
- Names and Nino will make a massive difference in 2023-24
- Lowry, Barron, Apples do not score a lot... but they get scored on less
- Samberg was our best Dman
- Scheif and Wheeler improved when reunited... and then collapsed
- Whatever happened after the TD... JoMo became dominant - I would say that 95% of the team bought into Bowness system
- Maybe KFC is not a core piece after all

Our top ten xGF% after TD was
Lowry, Apples, jomo, Ehlers, Names, Wheeler, DeMelo, nino, Dillon, PLD

DON'T look at the 42 goals... don't sign Scheif long-term... this team 'should' be stronger with Vilardi and Iafallo playing Bowness system