Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Whileee]

Just to be clear .... I have always blamed the goalies and bad shooting luck. And bad passing, bad decision making, bad receiving of passes, bad NZ turnovers, etc. And, as I said yesterday, I am happy to accept your explanation of so often playing catchup as at least a major contributor. And that goes back to goaltending, again in part. I don't think there is any single explanation for the whole thing.

There were quite a few games where they were outshot by wide margins, or only managed to even out the shot count later in the game when score effects took over. Those games where the shot count stayed heavily against them could have been evened out by other games where they outshot the opponents. The aggregate stats wouldn't show that. The problem then would be inconsistency. What would cause that inconsistency is anyone's guess.

But the Jets weren't more inconsistent in the 2nd half than the first half of the season in terms of shot attempts or shots on goal. In fact, they were on the positive side of the ledger more often in the second half.

The metrics make it very clear that the shot metrics were better in the second half (5v5). The goaltending, finishing and PP were worse in the second half.

It's not really close, in any of the data.

 

[KingBogo]

Can't go thru another season without a captain, to me it's a no brainer and Lowry should be announce during or shortly after training camp

I think Morrissey is the most logical choice. A little younger and probably ages well and I’m not sure Lowry will age well. He is already close to being pushed to the 4th line with our added depth since last season’s TDL.

 

[bustamente]

I think Morrissey is the most logical choice. A little younger and probably ages well and I’m not sure Lowry will age well. He is already close to being pushed to the 4th line with our added depth since last season’s TDL.

I don't think being on the 4th line has any bearing on him being captain material, he plays hard, steps up to the plate and chips in with a few goals now and then.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I think Names is abetter fill-in at 2C when someone is injured, but that is a different problem than everyday 3C.



Leave it empty until Barlow is ready for the job.

Barlow won't be ready to be a captain until 2027-28 at the very earliest. That's five seasons away. Morrissey might even get traded by then. But I could see Barlow being the next Jets captain and being in every re-draft being taken top-five.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I say No C For You! Back of the line! to anyone that wore an A last year. They were all mini-Wheelers at the exits. Give it to the guy that manned up and accepted responsibility for not being good enough.

 

[SUX2BU]

I think Names is abetter fill-in at 2C when someone is injured, but that is a different problem than everyday 3C.



Leave it empty until Barlow is ready for the job.

Leave it empty until Scheif is gone

Then put the C on Morrissey

 

[DRW204]

Fair enough, but also do we hear from his agent? Agents speak for players, more or less.

surely you can see why his agent (who is a Winnipegger) would not publicly announce Hellebuyck will not re-sign in Winnipeg when he still has a year remaining on his contract.

 

[Buffdog]

The metrics (expected goals) adjust for shot volume and shot quality. So, the Jets improvement in overall expected goals metrics is based on both shot volume and shot quality.

The shooting percentage and save percentage is based on goals for and against in relation to shots on net. The data show that in the 2nd half the Jets improved increased their shot volume and quality for, and reduced (substantially) the shot volume and quality against (7th best in the NHL). However, their shooting percentage in the 2nd half was 32nd (last) in the NHL, and their save percentage dropped from near the top to middle-of-the pack.

Here is a summary of Hellebuyck's goaltending performance across the season. The red line shows the number of goals against per 100 expected goals (as a percentage). Since this is referenced by expected goals, it takes into account both shot volume and shot quality against. That substantial increase from games 50 to 75 (circled in blue) shows that during that stretch Hellebuyck let in a much higher percentage of goals relative to expected goals against compared to earlier in the season. He recovered in the last few games, and that helped the Jets with their late winning streak.

View attachment 732168

Compounding Hellebuyck's struggles was the fact that Rittich became completely porous during that stretch. Again, the red line shows the percentage of goals vs. expected goals (so it accounts for shot volume and shot quality). Yikes!

View attachment 732171

Thanks for the clarification. What you're saying seems to back up what I saw during the second half of the season and as we talked about before (and as @DRW204 alludes to in a subsequent post), the PP going into the shitter might have played a big role.

What I (and maybe other posters) are wondering is whether something tangible and fixable led to what we saw (and appears to be backed up by your stats) or was it just bad luck?

 

[KingBogo]

I don't think being on the 4th line has any bearing on him being captain material, he plays hard, steps up to the plate and chips in with a few goals now and then.

If you are a player that was never at the top of the roster and you are now late in your career you aren’t going to be made captain no matter how bought in you have been. Morrissey seems most likely to me.

 

[surixon]

If you are a player that was never at the top of the roster and you are now late in your career you aren’t going to be made captain no matter how bought in you have been. Morrissey seems most likely to me.

Agreed. The C almost always goes to a top player. When was the last time a bottom pairing dmen or bottom 6 player was made captain?

I guess Staal on Carolina is now a 3C but he wasn't when he was names captain.

Maybe Okposo on Buffalo?

 

[Atoyot]

Agreed. The C almost always goes to a top player. When was the last time a bottom pairing dmen or bottom 6 player was made captain?

I guess Staal on Carolina is now a 3C but he wasn't when he was names captain.

Maybe Okposo on Buffalo?

Derek Mackenzie, Dave Andreychuk.

 

[surixon]

Derek Mackenzie, Dave Andreychuk.

That's going back a long time I think.

 

[ps241]

Agreed. The C almost always goes to a top player. When was the last time a bottom pairing dmen or bottom 6 player was made captain?

I guess Staal on Carolina is now a 3C but he wasn't when he was names captain.

Maybe Okposo on Buffalo?

Nick Foligno was a working Captain Probably bottom 6 for many years other than about two rando high scoring seasons.

 

[Atoyot]

That's going back a long time I think.

Only 4 years for Mackenzie, Andreychuk was the captain when Tampa won the Cup against Calgary in 03/04.

EDIT: Sorry, 5 years for Mackenzie.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Tatar is still unsigned, I remember a bit of chatter about him and the Jets a while back. He'd kind of fit the mold of guys we've been targeting lately like Nino and Iafallo.

We'll have ~2mil capspace left with Stan and Kup signed - though Chevy did allude to actively shopping one of our D during his FA press conference so that would be some more salary going out - lets say 3.9 with Dillon. If we can pull off that move and bring in another 2nd + asset, we'd be sitting in a pretty good spot to bring in Tatar comfortably under the cap.

Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi
Tatar - Perfetti - Ehlers
Iafallo - Lowry - Nino
Barron - Names - Appleton/Kupari

Morrissey - Demelo
Samberg - Pionk
Heinola - Schmidt

If we suck, we could get a lot of assets at the deadline for our rentals and still ice a decent team after the fact.



I'm rambling a bit here, but if the team looks legit by the deadline and Chevy decides to hold onto an unsigned Mark & Helle, I'm curious how the board feels about going all in ala Columbus a few years back when they traded for Duchene with pending UFAs Bob & Panarin.

We could spend some premium assets (we'd have some extra picks from a Dillon trade) and bring in another Center at the deadline like we did with Stastny & Hayes. I'll use Lindholm as an example for now.

Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi
Tatar - Lindholm - Ehlers
Iafallo - Perfetti - Nino
Barron - Lowry - Names

I'd argue that we'd rival our 2017/2018 team up front. Would be ballsy but it's our last kick at the can with this core, and the argument could be made that we may as well go all in if Chevy decides to keep an unsigned Scheif & Helle at the deadline for one last run.

Rutger, Lambert, Lucius, et al start to trickle in to replace all of the guys leaving in UFA.

 

[Jets 31]

So underachieving Chevy going into the 23-24 season minus Flake Wheezer and crybaby Dubois with a netminder and 1C who would rather be elsewhere, 3 top 6 forwards, a below average D on a hope and a prayer!

Sip is in mid season form already.

 

[Jets 31]

Tatar is still unsigned, I remember a bit of chatter about him and the Jets a while back. He'd kind of fit the mold of guys we've been targeting lately like Nino and Iafallo.

We'll have ~2mil capspace left with Stan and Kup signed - though Chevy did allude to actively shopping one of our D during his FA press conference so that would be some more salary going out - lets say 3.9 with Dillon. If we can pull off that move and bring in another 2nd + asset, we'd be sitting in a pretty good spot to bring in Tatar comfortably under the cap.

Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi
Tatar - Perfetti - Ehlers
Iafallo - Lowry - Nino
Barron - Names - Appleton/Kupari

Morrissey - Demelo
Samberg - Pionk
Heinola - Schmidt

If we suck, we could get a lot of assets at the deadline for our rentals and still ice a decent team after the fact.



I'm rambling a bit here, but if the team looks legit by the deadline and Chevy decides to hold onto an unsigned Mark & Helle, I'm curious how the board feels about going all in ala Columbus a few years back when they traded for Duchene with pending UFAs Bob & Panarin.

We could spend some premium assets (we'd have some extra picks from a Dillon trade) and bring in another Center at the deadline like we did with Stastny & Hayes. I'll use Lindholm as an example for now.

Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi
Tatar - Lindholm - Ehlers
Iafallo - Perfetti - Nino
Barron - Lowry - Names

I'd argue that we'd rival our 2017/2018 team up front. Would be ballsy but it's our last kick at the can with this core, and the argument could be made that we may as well go all in if Chevy decides to keep an unsigned Scheif & Helle at the deadline for one last run.

Rutger, Lambert, Lucius, et al start to trickle in to replace all of the guys leaving in UFA.

Good post but if Chevy lets Helly and Scheifele walk out the door for absolutely nothing he's walking out the door right behind them. Just one Dude's opinion but Chevy either has to re-sign them or trade them , failure to do either has to mean his job.

 

[ps241]

Sip is in mid season form already.

Sip is elite at what he does, dare I say generational.

He has that John Tortorella composure after losses, and nobody shares more in the PGT after a Jets howler (would 20 posts be the normal over under line).

Sarcastic uncle Sip in moderation is truly a treat, and no HFBoards family function is complete without him.

 

[SUX2BU]

Sip is elite at what he does, dare I say generational.

He has that John Tortorella composure after losses, and nobody shares more in the PGT after a Jets howler (would 20 posts be the normal over under line).

Sarcastic uncle Sip in moderation is truly a treat, and no HFBoards family function is complete without him.

He has the John Tortorella composure after wins too ……..

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Barlow is 18 and as raw as can be prospect. He is likely at least 3 years away from the NHL and another couple years after that before he starts being close to the front end of his productive years. Morrissey or another current Jet will be the next captain.

No idea what any of these guys are like in the room. I don't see a captain.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But the Jets weren't more inconsistent in the 2nd half than the first half of the season in terms of shot attempts or shots on goal. In fact, they were on the positive side of the ledger more often in the second half.

The metrics make it very clear that the shot metrics were better in the second half (5v5). The goaltending, finishing and PP were worse in the second half.

It's not really close, in any of the data.

Yes, shot metrics were better in the 2nd half. I offered at least a partial explanation of why. It would require a game by game, period by period examination to confirm - or deny - my suggestion. Looking at the stats for that body of games as a whole masks things like frequently playing from behind from early in the game.

There was inconsistency when they were being outshot by wide margins in some games and making up that deficit in others.

I don't have the time or the dedication to go back over each game period by period.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Barlow won't be ready to be a captain until 2027-28 at the very earliest. That's five seasons away. Morrissey might even get traded by then. But I could see Barlow being the next Jets captain and being in every re-draft being taken top-five.

That's a long time without a captain. Does that matter?

Unless a leader emerges in the vacuum left by Wheeler's departure I would leave it empty. That might happen. It might be Morrissey. Or not. I don't think it can be forced.

Or, if there must be a captain, let the players choose him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

surely you can see why his agent (who is a Winnipegger) would not publicly announce Hellebuyck will not re-sign in Winnipeg when he still has a year remaining on his contract.

Then we still haven't heard anything but speculation.

But a player, or an agent, might make public comments in an effort to force a trade. Seems we have heard those kinds of things before, no? If Helle truly wants out, why would he be any different than PLD?

 

[Heldig]

Obviously it is pretty common to see players that are named captain to have a history of leadership / captaincy throughout their careers.

The 2 obvious candidates are:

Morrissey was an alternate captain. He was a captain on the PA Raiders. With the long term contract (only player signed for more than 2 seasons) he gets the C.

Lowry was an alternate captain. He was a captain on the Swift Current Broncos. He gets an A.

The second A?

Iafallo wore an A in LA. Could be a candidate.

IF he extends in Winnipeg could Hellebucyk get the other A?

 

[ps241]

I don’t care about who the club names as the team captain. The room sorts out who the leaders of the team are. I think the Captain is more for the press and public facing elements of the job. I assume the Captain is often the main leader too but if he is appointed by the organization then it might not be locker room leader. Buff was always the team Alfa until he retired (From what I hear).

All hockey rooms have a leadership dynamic despite letters on the uniform. I think last season was a good example, Blake was stripped of the captaincy but it became apparent the team still felt he was the main leader (or captain). He’s gone now so someone will emerge in the room.