Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[AlaskaJet]

Is Namestnikov actually better than Lowry tho? I don't think so

It’s debatable. Lows certainly can do things Names can’t and vice versa.
Though Lows on 4c would bolster the 4th line, it wouldn’t be so bad to see Lows 3c and Names would be good with Barron on his wing..Thoughts?

 

[DrChar]

What do we really know about what Helle has said?

I mean we know he said he didn't want to stick around for a rebuild. That is very different than he wants out. There was at least one insider (Dreger?) who talked about him wanting to go to the US but did we ever hear that from Helle? Or anything else other than wanting to contend for a Cup?

We had a couple of - what word to use? - pouty comments from Scheifele in exit interviews but also a lack of really saying that he wants out.

I don't pick up on every statement or rumour. Have I missed any more than that? Fill me in.

I agree with this, but rarely do we hear about these types of comments directly from players. Helle knows there a good chance he starts the year with the Jets so I think it’s doubtful anything will come directly from him

 

[10Ducky10]

Stone hands Lowsy actually redeemed himself in my eyes for his PO performance, he was basically the Jets best forward, leave him at 3C

He's ALWAYS one of the best players come playoffs...going back to the series with the Ducks.

 

[Whileee]

Again, Nino and Names came in and played Bowness system - get to the front of the net, allow shots from the D or the boards, get dirty goals... most importantly they played their role in the system.

There's really three chapters to last season
Game 1 to Montreal game Jan 17 - very solid with some improvement needed
Jan 17 to trade-in deadline March/top line benching March 14 - basically a disaster, some top players not playing lowness system and other players trying to do too much
Trade deadline to end of season - playing bowness system again but Scheif sulking

I think we are crediting Scheif instead of Morrissey drastically stepping up his game and carrying the team in many ways. That's my main point

We are picking on KFC - but I look at his XGF, etc and it doesn't look terrible.

There seems to be blame for the second half on our Vezina candidate goalie.

Break the stats down into those three chapters and maybe we understand what happened... the slump really does match up with Lauer's absence

I've shown plenty of data, showing it over the entire season (including some game by game). Your summary isn't backed up by the data over the season on shot metrics, save % or shooting %. If you have data that better supports your assessment, I'd be interested to see it.

 

[Whileee]

To be fair I split the season into 4 chapters... based on quick xGF%

Chapter 1 - Game 1 to December 1
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- Our fancy stats are pretty bad - in fact, these stats are terrible and its quite possible goaltending and Bowness system is carrying the team
- JoMo and Perfetti a lot worse than I thought
- Wheeler, Scheif, Connor, Pionk in our top ten though
- Sam gagner with a strong start

Dec 1 to Montreal Game (PLD's party haha)
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is on fire - the bottom six is driving our success
- Jomo and Perfetti getting their game
- Samberg and Schmidt pairing might be something...
- Only DeMelo, Connor, Pionk under 50
- Honestly surprised Scheif is not higher

PLD Party to Scheif's Benching
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is cracking - Scheif, Wheeler, Jomo, Pionk, Stenlund are now liabilities
- Perfetti, Dillon, Samberg and Dubois driving the team
- Stenlund and Lowry fall - so does the impact of our bottom six

Carolina Game to the End - Names/Nino era
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

- This team is dominant - only players under xGF55$ are Pionk, Scheif and Connor
- Suddenly Jomo, Ehlers and Lowry are on fire
- Nino and Names are good players
- Our worst top players down the stretch are Pionk, Connor and Scheif...

There's my deep dive.

This lines up a lot more with the eye test than simply a shooting drought and Helle disappearing...

Interesting things I learned
- Samberg is A LOT better than we think
- JoMo may not be the anchor we think he is
- Scheif did NOT have a 200' game resurgence in the first half... he ranged from 47-51% all year
- Wheeler is a very very good player if we had played him on the third line - I knew that though
- The first 20 games - this team sucked on paper - is that because they were playing Bowness' non-scoring system?
- PLD played harder than any of our other top players
- The Jets played their BEST hockey of the year after the top line was benched - Scheif and Connor did not

You can't simply ignore what happened to the Jets' save% and shooting% in relation to shot metrics across the season. They changed dramatically, much moreso than the shot metrics.

 

[Buffdog]

You can't simply ignore what happened to the Jets' save% and shooting% in relation to shot metrics across the season. They changed dramatically, much moreso than the shot metrics.

Was there a change in the quality of shots? Lower quality shots for and higher quality shots against would account for at least part of why those metrics looked good but on ice results were bad. There's also score effect... not sure whether what you've been referencing accounts for either of these (I believe xGF does account for shot quality, although unreliably)

Anyway, interesting discussion. Goes to show that the better overall team doesn't always win, nor does the better team on any given night.

 

[DRW204]

Here's what we conclude from xGF%
- Of our top six, only PLD and Perfetti scored more than they allowed this season
- Names and Nino will make a massive difference in 2023-24
- Lowry, Barron, Apples do not score a lot... but they get scored on less
- Samberg was our best Dman
- Scheif and Wheeler improved when reunited... and then collapsed
- Whatever happened after the TD... JoMo became dominant - I would say that 95% of the team bought into Bowness system
- Maybe KFC is not a core piece after all

Our top ten xGF% after TD was
Lowry, Apples, jomo, Ehlers, Names, Wheeler, DeMelo, nino, Dillon, PLD

DON'T look at the 42 goals... don't sign Scheif long-term... this team 'should' be stronger with Vilardi and Iafallo playing Bowness system

There's so much wrong in this post

XGF is a measurement of chances. NOT GF vs GA. For XGF Every shot gets assigned a value depending on how good it is based on certain criteria (it attempts answers the old saying "not all shots are the same").

When you're making conclusions of GF, scoring, while using xGF% as a sole criteria, you're doing it wrong.

At 5v5 the fwds that were positives in GF% for the season, so on ice for more GF than GA, were...... PLD, Perfetti, Ehlers, Wheeler, Stenlund, Nino, Namestnikov, Eyssimont, Appleton, Scheifele and Connor. Lowry and Barron may not get scored on a lot however the Jets score even less when they're on the ice (hence the negative GF%)

You typed up all this stuff post-tdl. We went 11-9-2 and were one of the lowest goal scoring teams in the league after ninos addition.
If that's what it looks like with "95% team buy in" to Bowness' system with 2 "massive difference makers...." than yikes, the system stinks.

 

[drumzan]

Add Frolik to the list of walkers. Add Stuart to buyouts.

Hainsey another one. That was a frustrating one for me. It signalled that Chevy/Chipman valued the locker room and 2% chance of making playoffs over asset management.

 

[Whileee]

Was there a change in the quality of shots? Lower quality shots for and higher quality shots against would account for at least part of why those metrics looked good but on ice results were bad. There's also score effect... not sure whether what you've been referencing accounts for either of these (I believe xGF does account for shot quality, although unreliably)

Anyway, interesting discussion. Goes to show that the better overall team doesn't always win, nor does the better team on any given night.

The metrics (expected goals) adjust for shot volume and shot quality. So, the Jets improvement in overall expected goals metrics is based on both shot volume and shot quality.

The shooting percentage and save percentage is based on goals for and against in relation to shots on net. The data show that in the 2nd half the Jets improved increased their shot volume and quality for, and reduced (substantially) the shot volume and quality against (7th best in the NHL). However, their shooting percentage in the 2nd half was 32nd (last) in the NHL, and their save percentage dropped from near the top to middle-of-the pack.

Here is a summary of Hellebuyck's goaltending performance across the season. The red line shows the number of goals against per 100 expected goals (as a percentage). Since this is referenced by expected goals, it takes into account both shot volume and shot quality against. That substantial increase from games 50 to 75 (circled in blue) shows that during that stretch Hellebuyck let in a much higher percentage of goals relative to expected goals against compared to earlier in the season. He recovered in the last few games, and that helped the Jets with their late winning streak.

Compounding Hellebuyck's struggles was the fact that Rittich became completely porous during that stretch. Again, the red line shows the percentage of goals vs. expected goals (so it accounts for shot volume and shot quality). Yikes!

 

[Jet]

I don't care what people are saying today but if Scheifele and Helle have anything close to the seasons they have had in the past and the Jets can not trade or extend them and they leave with the Jets getting nothing in return everyone and I mean everyone will be screaming from the highest roof top at what a poorly run organization the Jets are. I don't care if its a late round pick for both of them they can be used as sweeteners for future trades to help this team. Players the Jets have let walk in the past are nowhere near the players these two are atm.

Well, they would be wrong for a variety of reasons.

 

[DRW204]

At the end of the day, statistics are good - but without context, we can make a business lose money/make money/breakeven in any given year with the same revenue/expenses.

Bowness benched Scheif for a reason, Helle is a vezina nominated goalie.

I am 100% agreeing that Lauer's absence was costly to this team - but the stats and eye test on Scheif don't match...

xGF% 5v5 matches my eye test for the season... just so no one accuses me of hating fancy stats
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This rating matches what most of us saw this season...

Nino and Names get a pass on the xGF rating because of small sample size

i like xGF and think there's value in it. but to just dismiss and scoff at things like GF (or GA), you know, the legitimate and tangible part of the game that assigns winners, is ridiculous, especially given goal-scoring/finishing has been become more and more pronounced through the years (ie: last year was the 23rd highest goal-scoring season per game post-1967). idk why posters de-emphasize goal-scoring so much given the current league where goal-scoring is becoming more emphasized.

not directed at you b/c it seems to me you lean a bit this way, but want to piggy-back at but another thing that evidently gets missed by 5v5-stat followers is they vehemently ignore special teams. On average - PPs compose 8% of a 60+ minute game with PP-goals composing 21% of overall goals scored. seems to me given, the scarcity of PP mins a game, teams need to make most of the situation and capitalizing on them as the efficiency per TOI is much higher. i am not saying just go and be a great PP team, but just that it should not be scoffed at when 21% of goals scored come in 8% of game-play (and then add PK which you can deduce from PP time or goals stats). @voyageur was a big proponent of this too and see why they usually emphasize special-teams in their posts.

imo - the Jets are fine in generating chances. but their problem is finishing them. do you not care about goal-scoring and outscoring the opposition? & it's been that way for 2 years now.

solid line: is GF
dashed line is xGF
blue is Jets
black is NHL-average

21-22: Jets were below league average in GF 62% and below in xGF 44% of gp
22-23: Jets were below league average in GF 60%, and below in xGF 48% of gp

and just on a side note: similarly can look at the same duration curves for GA and xGA (league average is unchanged and = GF and xGF)

21-22: Jets were below league average in GA 62% and below in xGA 44% of gp
22-23: Jets were below league average in GA 66%, and below in xGA 57% of gp

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I'd have the lows line and Nino lines out there against the other teams best and let the top 6 feast.

I'm thinking ideally tho, equal ice time for all 4 lines. Obviously some nights the top lines will get more but other nights they will get less. Score effects n shit. Ideally you have 4 lines u can run 15 mins each... I mean maybe the names Nino or Lowry lines are around 13 14 a game and the top 6 get the extra 2 3 minutes.

Ideally tho, you have 4 lines you can run. Lowry not gonna get 10 minutes a game, he's prob ideally around 14 15 tho.

I also would consider trading a guy like KFC, just feel he gets back more than anyone else on the roster and not sure he makes up for his defensive duhness

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Helle and Stanley to Buffalo

Kulich, leinonen( 6 5 Finn goalie) Rosen and 1st 24.

LFG

 

[R Zardo]

If the Jets are in a playoff spot at the deadline and trade 55 and 37 for the sum of two late #1s and two B prospects I will be sad.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'll throw it out there

Does signing Scheifele long term and trading KFC possibly make us better next year? Does kc get you more in a trade than mark does. We got wingers.



No doubt. It's July 28.

The trade talk is not mostly about getting some needed return. It is mostly about the need to trade Mark and Helle because they have indicated (or so we hear) that they won't extend here. IF we trade Mark, we nned a C. IF we trade Helle we need a G.

IF the option to sign Scheifele is there, you sign Scheifele. Period.

At that point the need is for a serious upgrade at RHD. If we could trade KC for a good top 4 RHD I'd be interested. Exactly how interested would depend on the details.

Looking at KFC's history he has been an amazing offensive player. Probably among the most underrated in the league. He scored 31 goals as a rookie. He has scored 30+ in every single year except the Covid shortened 21 season when he was on pace for 38. He has also been successful as a playmaker, scoring 46 & 49 A and over a ppg the last 2 years. Not only the high scoring but the consistency have been outstanding. With 3 more years on a good contract the return on him would be more than substantial.

 

[Whileee]

i like xGF and think there's value in it. but to just dismiss and scoff at things like GF (or GA), you know, the legitimate and tangible part of the game that assigns winners, is ridiculous, especially given goal-scoring/finishing has been become more and more pronounced through the years (ie: last year was the 23rd highest goal-scoring season per game post-1967). idk why posters de-emphasize goal-scoring so much given the current league where goal-scoring is becoming more emphasized.

not directed at you b/c it seems to me you lean a bit this way, but want to piggy-back at but another thing that evidently gets missed by 5v5-stat followers is they vehemently ignore special teams. On average - PPs compose 8% of a 60+ minute game with PP-goals composing 21% of overall goals scored. seems to me given, the scarcity of PP mins a game, teams need to make most of the situation and capitalizing on them as the efficiency per TOI is much higher. i am not saying just go and be a great PP team, but just that it should not be scoffed at when 21% of goals scored come in 8% of game-play (and then add PK which you can deduce from PP time or goals stats). @voyageur was a big proponent of this too and see why they usually emphasize special-teams in their posts.

imo - the Jets are fine in generating chances. but their problem is finishing them. do you not care about goal-scoring and outscoring the opposition? & it's been that way for 2 years now.

View attachment 732207

solid line: is GF
dashed line is xGF
blue is Jets
black is NHL-average

21-22: Jets were below league average in GF 62% and below in xGF 44% of gp
22-23: Jets were below league average in GF 60%, and below in xGF 48% of gp

and just on a side note: similarly can look at the same duration curves for GA and xGA (league average is unchanged and = GF and xGF)

21-22: Jets were below league average in GA 62% and below in xGA 44% of gp
22-23: Jets were below league average in GA 66%, and below in xGA 57% of gp

Of course goals (for and against) are important, but goaltending performance fluctuates (affecting goals against), and players have shooting slumps, and there is more random variation in goals because they are rarer events than shots and expected goals.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think we should note that Chevy has largely brought in Bones type players since the deadline. Players who's calling cards are good defense first, but also have some scoring (Nino, Vilardi, Iafallo, Namestnikov) Kupri plays a gritty defensive game and may have some secondary scoring touch as well. Couple that with Perfetti who it looks like they are building his defensive game first (it's already pretty good) and you have a team that will likely be going more Vegas the Toronto in terms of style.

So even with improved depth I doubt this team will score a significant amount of goals. It is being constructed and developed to prevent goals first and score them second. Look at the prospects we are grabbing early now in McGrarty and Barlow. Gritty defensive responsible players with offensive upside.

Which brings up my next point, what does that mean for Conner and Ehlers long term? Neither fits the d first mold. Does the org continue to live with that or do they go convert them into different player types. They already have gotten rid of one of their worst defensive forwards in Wheeler so are the other two next, food for thought.

Ehlers is no Selke candidate, but he is responsible defensively and even somewhat effective. Whole different planet than Connor. I think a much better strategy is to partner the defensive weak spots with strong defensive linemates.

Making a hockey trade of either to fill a gap in the roster is a different question. Trading them because of their style would not be a good idea, IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There aren't public sources that I'm aware of that provide xGAR or GAR by season segment.

But the data I've displayed make it very clear that the team and Scheifele both improved in terms of 5v5 shot metrics, but were undermined by poor goaltending and shooting. The PP sank though, but I think that was on coaching as much as anything, with no adaptation and refusal to use Ehlers on PP1 when it went stagnant.

I realize that the data contradict the popular view that developed because the Jets were losing, and people refuse to blame the goalies or bad shooting luck.

My view is based on the data, and what I observed.

If others have data or analyses to back up the view that the Jets and Scheifele's play took a negative turn in the latter part of the season, please share them.

Just to be clear .... I have always blamed the goalies and bad shooting luck. And bad passing, bad decision making, bad receiving of passes, bad NZ turnovers, etc. And, as I said yesterday, I am happy to accept your explanation of so often playing catchup as at least a major contributor. And that goes back to goaltending, again in part. I don't think there is any single explanation for the whole thing.

There were quite a few games where they were outshot by wide margins, or only managed to even out the shot count later in the game when score effects took over. Those games where the shot count stayed heavily against them could have been evened out by other games where they outshot the opponents. The aggregate stats wouldn't show that. The problem then would be inconsistency. What would cause that inconsistency is anyone's guess.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree with this, but rarely do we hear about these types of comments directly from players. Helle knows there a good chance he starts the year with the Jets so I think it’s doubtful anything will come directly from him

Fair enough, but also do we hear from his agent? Agents speak for players, more or less.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The more I think about it the even less it makes sense.... and that's Scheifele and Boston. It just doesn't make sense anymore. Boston is known for D first centers, scheif is the exact opposite of the recently retired Bergeron who he'd be replacing. And honestly, if Carlo has a nmc and McAvoy ain't available, there really is nothing of interest there. Swayman? Sure but not as the only piece type thing. Just doesn't fit in my opinion. No 24 1st even. It just... they don't have much of interest if 1 guy isn't available anymore

No doubt a Scheifele for Swayman trade would be risky for Jets. But it would be exactly what we would need if Helle is gone. If Swayman doesn't live up to expectations it would be a lost trade. But Scheifele might also fail to live up to expectations going forward. Nothing is ever guaranteed.

Bruins have been known for D first centres because that is what they happened to have. Scheifele may be no Bergeron, but Bergeron is no Scheifele either. Both are (or were) 1C's. Just look at what Boston has at C now and then tell me they wouldn't love to get Scheifele.

Tell you what, to even out value we'll add Harkins and they can add Geekie.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Or did Bones change the offensive scheme halfway through the year to more of a point shot offense? There are plenty of ways to look at this. If the dmen saw a massive increase in shots then that leads me to believe there was a change in tactics.

I also wouldn't doubt if there was a simplifying of offensive tactics the second half as Bones was missing his offensive systems coach most of the second half.

You don't need to change systems that are working because a coach is missing. It is OK guys, just keep doing what has been working until what's his name gets back. The systems were already in place - and working.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Is Namestnikov actually better than Lowry tho? I don't think so

I think Names is abetter fill-in at 2C when someone is injured, but that is a different problem than everyday 3C.

I think Morrissey should be captain.

Leave it empty until Barlow is ready for the job.

 

[KingBogo]

I think Names is abetter fill-in at 2C when someone is injured, but that is a different problem than everyday 3C.



Leave it empty until Barlow is ready for the job.

Barlow is 18 and as raw as can be prospect. He is likely at least 3 years away from the NHL and another couple years after that before he starts being close to the front end of his productive years. Morrissey or another current Jet will be the next captain.

 

[surixon]

Ehlers is no Selke candidate, but he is responsible defensively and even somewhat effective. Whole different planet than Connor. I think a much better strategy is to partner the defensive weak spots with strong defensive linemates.

Making a hockey trade of either to fill a gap in the roster is a different question. Trading them because of their style would not be a good idea, IMO.

I'm not advocating for it either. I'm a proponent of the philosophy that you need many different types of players to win in this league. Brought it up more for discussion purposes. I think the org likes Conner quite a bit, warts and all. Ehlers I'm not so sure of. I have doubts they entertain extending him past his current contract.

Barlow is 18 and as raw as can be prospect. He is likely at least 3 years away from the NHL and another couple years after that before he starts being close to the front end of his productive years. Morrissey or another current Jet will be the next captain.

Yeah, talk of any of our prospects being the next captain is premature. These kids have to first focus on making the team.

 

[bustamente]

Can't go thru another season without a captain, to me it's a no brainer and Lowry should be announce during or shortly after training camp