Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[John Agar]

I had a contrary viewpoint at the time, though I wasn't posting here to share it.

Briefly...

The Jets slump coincided with both an uncharacteristic cratering of goaltending and a shooting slump. So, in a number of those games they ended up going down quickly with two or three soft goals against, and then couldn't mount a comeback. There is nothing that looks worse than a team that's playing from behind and can't finish. But in many of those games, the Jets were actually matching or beating teams in shot attempts and danger, but losing (often disheartening losses).

Here is a graphical representation of the Jets shooting / goaltending deficit game-by-game over the season. What is obvious to me is that in the first 40-50 games, the Jets very often had the advantage in terms of save % or were quite close to opponents, but during that awful stretch the Jets were regularly on the losing end of the shooting/saving percentages, often caved in substantially. (Note: segments of the lines inside the red "0" line represent games where the Jets had a save% deficit, and vice-versa).

View attachment 731793

The graph is spectacular...

If you turned it 47 degrees counter-clockwise...

It could be the new symbol to go inside the Jets roundel emblem...

 

[Heldig]

So underachieving Chevy going into the 23-24 season minus Flake Wheezer and crybaby Dubois with a netminder and 1C who would rather be elsewhere, 3 top 6 forwards, a below average D on a hope and a prayer!

We dont know that Scheifele wants to be elsewhere, do we?

3 top 6 forwards seems lite. Connor and Scheifele = 1st line. Ehlers, Perfetti, and Vilardi = 2nd line

Iafallo borderline 2nd.

 

[AlaskaJet]

I agree it is deeper. Better, or much better, remains to be seen.

I think we are much weaker at top 6C unless Vilardi really steps up there. I think that Perfetti winning that spot will mean a downgrade there for at least a year, if not 2. Maybe indefinitely.

Expecting so many players to get better year over year is unrealistic, IMO. Barron is approaching 25 YO. He is probably as good as he is going to get. Kupari may or may not have been held back by the situation in LA. He may or may not get better usage here. Snerg may have done his growing last year. Late season Snerg may be as good as we get. He is also 24+ YO, just a couple of months younger than Barron. Vilardi had his breakout season last year. That may be as good as it gets. There are the questions of whether he is a C or a W and then his health. Perfetti is the only 1 highly likely to improve and there is the health question with him too.

Defensive play by F may make a big difference if the defensively weak F can be sheltered or supported by defensively better linemates. I see that as the biggest potential improvement and that needs to be seen. That and a rebound from Pionk and a lot of luck with injuries.

I find myself wondering just how much better they have to be to make the arithmetic of those own rentals work. It is this one season against the potential of multiple seasons from multiple players. If the return is picks or prospects whose ELCs have slid then we are looking at a minimum of 7 years from each and possibly longer. Even if it is limited to 7 years the possibility of trading those assets for more assets 5-6 years down the line would exist so the chain gets quite long. So ...... would winning 1 series do it? Two? Three? Making the SCF would be pretty special. How long would the joy last? Habs fans still talk about it from 2 years ago but I don't think the events since have left them with a lot of joy from that 1 PO.

I doubt that any one and done season will do it for me, or many other Jets fans. I want to see a window of contention that lasts for a while.

Mort, I strongly agree with ya on the importance of defensively stronger Forwards mitigating the forwards we already have seen to be weak in that regard. Depth is good but a lot will depend on the new guys getting a feel for line mates and taking initiatives. It’ll take a few weeks of playing together at the very least most of preseason. But the potential is there. I’m keeping my fingers crossed and hoping Bones, Lauer and Arniel can earn their pesos.

 

[AlaskaJet]

We dont know that Scheifele wants to be elsewhere, do we?

3 top 6 forwards seems lite. Connor and Scheifele = 1st line. Ehlers, Perfetti, and Vilardi = 2nd line

Iafallo borderline 2nd.

Scheiffle and Connor should not be seen in the same line IMHO, they just don’t have the solid defensive flexibility. Some of the “”2’d” you mention will have to move up..I’d like to see a whole slew of Names, Barron and Iafallo at least tried out in the upper lines. Always a fan of 4 even lines.

 

[AlaskaJet]

I had a contrary viewpoint at the time, though I wasn't posting here to share it.

Briefly...

The Jets slump coincided with both an uncharacteristic cratering of goaltending and a shooting slump. So, in a number of those games they ended up going down quickly with two or three soft goals against, and then couldn't mount a comeback. There is nothing that looks worse than a team that's playing from behind and can't finish. But in many of those games, the Jets were actually matching or beating teams in shot attempts and danger, but losing (often disheartening losses).

Here is a graphical representation of the Jets shooting / goaltending deficit game-by-game over the season. What is obvious to me is that in the first 40-50 games, the Jets very often had the advantage in terms of save % or were quite close to opponents, but during that awful stretch the Jets were regularly on the losing end of the shooting/saving percentages, often caved in substantially. (Note: segments of the lines inside the red "0" line represent games where the Jets had a save% deficit, and vice-versa).

View attachment 731793

I wonder how much in each of the low save % games Helly was just not bouncing back..maybe a low percentage like 20%..but more how the D and especially defensively weaker forwards were not getting it done. Either because they were just not conditioned for it, getting too old, too cocky from a win last game or not fully buying in to Bones’ formulas. Or Lauer missing..
Lots of variables.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I have gotten very frustrated many times with Scheifele's play defensively but he's not the reason the Jets haven't taken the next step. The guy puts the puck in the net and every good team needs that. Put a good defensive forward with him and lets see how it goes. There are alot of good offensive players around the league that don't play good defense, Scheifele isn't alone there.

The point I was making is that 'goaltending cratering' and our shooting percentage drying up were also not the sole reasons for the slump - the biggest underlying factor is that the team essentially stopped playing Bowness' system (or teams figured it out

Robertson and Hintz scored under Bowness system - Benn and Serguin bounced back under it... but you need every player buying in and in position or any system collapses

It wasn't just Scheif but he was the most glaring example - heading into another season where your 1C is not interested in playing your coach's style of hockey is not good for anyone.

 

[surixon]

The point I was making is that 'goaltending cratering' and our shooting percentage drying up were also not the sole reasons for the slump - the biggest underlying factor is that the team essentially stopped playing Bowness' system (or teams figured it out

Robertson and Hintz scored under Bowness system - Benn and Serguin bounced back under it... but you need every player buying in and in position or any system collapses

It wasn't just Scheif but he was the most glaring example - heading into another season where your 1C is not interested in playing your coach's style of hockey is not good for anyone.

Benn most certainly didn't bounce back. He bounced back this year under DeBor where he scored 40% more then he averaged the previous 4 seasons.

Seguin bounced back but only because he missed Bones's entire first year with his surgery.

Robertson went from 79 points to over 100 under Debor.

Heiskinen bounced back into Norrise contention under Debor.

Also I'm getting sick of the "They stopped playing Bones system" rhetoric. The teams team defense improved significantly over the course of the season. Hard to fathom how a group of players doing their own thing could push their defensive metrics into the top 10.

Our team had the exact problems Bones's 2021-2022 Dallas team had. They couldn't score enough.

 

[DRW204]

Food for thought.

Last 22 gp of the year post Nino acquisition (Names came in 2nd game onward) we were 11-9-2 (20th in pts %), 22th in gf/60 (all strengths) and 1-4 POs. Evidently both PLD and Wheeler still here too with presumably upgraded depth.

Edit: didn't transcribe their league rank properly.

I do think the fwd group is a bit deeper but certainly didn't see it after those two were acquired.

I don't expect to be like that bad over a full year tho as training camp, more chemistry gets built etc

 

[DRW204]

the "scheifele stopped playing bowness system" comments are the funniest on this forum...

The amount of overall comments of system or schemes is funny too as if posters are in the locker/coaching room or analyzing game tape of each individual player, and their opponents'.

I think this team overperformed in the first half in scoring a bit and it had folks with expectations that would last. Several players were playing at career high paces, and then it leveled out in the second half.

This team ended up basically in the same tier of league ranking in Goal scoring stats as 21-22. If they're middle of the pack - 20th overall again, I won't be surprised really. But hoping for better ofc.

 

[surixon]

The amount of overall comments of system or schemes is funny too as if posters are in the locker/coaching room or analyzing game tape of each individual player, and their opponents'.

I think this team overperformed in the first half in scoring a bit and it had folks with expectations that would last. Several players were playing at career high paces, and then it leveled out in the second half.

This team ended up basically in the same tier of league ranking in Goal scoring stats as 21-22. If they're middle of the pack - 20th overall again, I won't be surprised really. But hoping for better ofc.

I'm expecting around league average or a bit worse in terms of gf.

It's really how well they prevent this year that will tell the tale. Bone's is a defensive coach and if they are top 10 in metrics (think that is reasonable) and top 10 in GA that will put them comfortably in.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I think one of the problems last year was outside the top 6, nobody could score a damn goal. I think looking at the depth right now, you can make the case that our bottom 6 is significantly improved from what we started with. I mean right now you could run 3 scoring lines and a 4th with Barron Lowry and Appleton

For long long stretches the only guys scoring consistently somewhat were Josh mark and Kyle (and I thought he had a down year). If they weren't nobody was. If the bottom got going the top got cold... never really did have all our lines going except in Vegas game 1.

 

[Atoyot]

So underachieving Chevy going into the 23-24 season minus Flake Wheezer and crybaby Dubois with a netminder and 1C who would rather be elsewhere, 3 top 6 forwards, a below average D on a hope and a prayer!

It's July.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I'll throw it out there

Does signing Scheifele long term and trading KFC possibly make us better next year? Does kc get you more in a trade than mark does. We got wingers.

It's July.

No doubt. It's July 28.

 

[surixon]

I think we should note that Chevy has largely brought in Bones type players since the deadline. Players who's calling cards are good defense first, but also have some scoring (Nino, Vilardi, Iafallo, Namestnikov) Kupri plays a gritty defensive game and may have some secondary scoring touch as well. Couple that with Perfetti who it looks like they are building his defensive game first (it's already pretty good) and you have a team that will likely be going more Vegas the Toronto in terms of style.

So even with improved depth I doubt this team will score a significant amount of goals. It is being constructed and developed to prevent goals first and score them second. Look at the prospects we are grabbing early now in McGrarty and Barlow. Gritty defensive responsible players with offensive upside.

Which brings up my next point, what does that mean for Conner and Ehlers long term? Neither fits the d first mold. Does the org continue to live with that or do they go convert them into different player types. They already have gotten rid of one of their worst defensive forwards in Wheeler so are the other two next, food for thought.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Benn most certainly didn't bounce back. He bounced back this year under DeBor where he scored 40% more then he averaged the previous 4 seasons.

Seguin bounced back but only because he missed Bones's entire first year with his surgery.

Robertson went from 79 points to over 100 under Debor.

Heiskinen bounced back into Norrise contention under Debor.

Also I'm getting sick of the "They stopped playing Bones system" rhetoric. The teams team defense improved significantly over the course of the season. Hard to fathom how a group of players doing their own thing could push their defensive metrics into the top 10.

Our team had the exact problems Bones's 2021-2022 Dallas team had. They couldn't score enough.

You act like I'm arguing that Peter Deboer is not a good coach - kind of a weird response.

Heiskanen is emerging the same way Morrissey is... not sure what argument you are making here either

I shouldn't have used the word 'team' - I'll be clear 'parts of the team' stopped... like key parts such as your 1C and 1LW

Criticize my view if you like but this mythology that our shooting percentage dried up when Scheif ended the season at 20% and Connor/Dubois/Wheeler all at 12-13% seems hard to swallow.

Dubois - career high in points...
Scheif - career high goals
Morrissey - double his previous career high in points
Lowry - career high in points
Pionk - career high goals
DeMelo - career high points
Perfetti on pace for 50 points

Helle .920 and 4 shutouts

I'll gladly agree that our PP dried up while Lauer was gone - that's simply a fact and a much larger factor than shooting percentage.

But again... Bowness wanted players in front and wanted shots - mid-season the Jets as always decided they were an elite passing team... it was Nino and Names that brought us back more than anyone to Bowness system

We all saw the change in Scheifele mid-season... again plus/minus is a very flawed stat but it can show trends... Scheif was hovering around 'even' right up until he was benched... then he's like -12 for the rest of the season - that's a guy who quit trying.

Scheif is just too moody to lead a team...

 

[gojetsgo]

it's hilarious that the guy who stopped playing the system which led to us falling in the second half was the one who scored the most goals in the second half...

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Mark needs to . Drop an F bomb every now and then

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

it's hilarious that the guy who stopped playing the system which led to us falling in the second half was the one who scored the most goals in the second half...

What's the point of scoring goals if you're on the ice for more goals against...

In the second half, the guy was -16 in games against playoff teams (incl Calgary) - no one else on the team is anywhere close except maybe Pionk who seems to have fallen off a cliff.

 

[surixon]

You act like I'm arguing that Peter Deboer is not a good coach - kind of a weird response.

Heiskanen is emerging the same way Morrissey is... not sure what argument you are making here either

I shouldn't have used the word 'team' - I'll be clear 'parts of the team' stopped... like key parts such as your 1C and 1LW

Criticize my view if you like but this mythology that our shooting percentage dried up when Scheif ended the season at 20% and Connor/Dubois/Wheeler all at 12-13% seems hard to swallow.

Dubois - career high in points...
Scheif - career high goals
Morrissey - double his previous career high in points
Lowry - career high in points
Pionk - career high goals
DeMelo - career high points
Perfetti on pace for 50 points

Helle .920 and 4 shutouts

I'll gladly agree that our PP dried up while Lauer was gone - that's simply a fact and a much larger factor than shooting percentage.

But again... Bowness wanted players in front and wanted shots - mid-season the Jets as always decided they were an elite passing team... it was Nino and Names that brought us back more than anyone to Bowness system

We all saw the change in Scheifele mid-season... again plus/minus is a very flawed stat but it can show trends... Scheif was hovering around 'even' right up until he was benched... then he's like -12 for the rest of the season - that's a guy who quit trying.

Scheif is just too moody to lead a team...

Heiskinen scored a lot under Montgomery and then saw his totals decline under Bones. Only for them to go back up under DeBor. Yes Debor is a good coach and better then Bones. My point was that most players on Dallas scored more before and after Bones. Bones has his strengths but they are predominantly in the defensive end of the ice. His asthma few teams he's coached haven't scored well as a whole.

Sure some players saw better years but many like Ehlers, Conner, Appelton etc saw worse years as well.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

What's the point of scoring goals if you're on the ice for more goals against...

That's hockey.

Wonder how many goals were scored against Edmonton with 99 on the ice or 97 even.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the players are fine with hockey trades that bring in now players and understand that is part of the game. I don’t think the care much about draft picks and prospects. Most of the current players will never play with whoever gets drafted next season. We only have 6 players left from the 2018 conference final run and that was only 5 years ago. And 2 of those are on the edge of walking out the door. That will be a 80%+ turnover in 5 years.

Again, I don't disagree. But the players are not the ones who should be making - or excessively influencing - those kinds of decisions.

What about the veteran players on other teams that are going through rebuilds? It may be that a lot were traded, not because they wouldn't stay for a rebuild, but as a part of the rebuild process, traded for futures. But what about those who were retained? Henrique, Silfverberg, Fowler and Gibson in Anaheim just picking 1 team to take a quick look at.

80% turnover in 5 years kind of suggests that we should not be too concerned with players who don't want to or won't stay for a rebuild. Though maybe that shouldn't be applied to those last 2 since it is the prospect of a rebuild that appears to be pushing them out the door. The rest have moved on through natural churn during a period when we were supposed to be at least competing if not contending.

 

[surixon]

What's the point of scoring goals if you're on the ice for more goals against...

Scheifele was only a -2 in terms of 5 on 5 goal differential the second half of the year. Not great but what were system players Lowry and Barron's excuses? Both had worse differentials then Mark.

Anyhow the top of the differential list is mostly top 6 players.

Perfetti 78%
Namestnikov 64%
Wheeler 59%
Ehlers 57%
Appelton 55%
Dubois/Nino 53%
Scheifele 48%
Barron 46%
Lowry 45%
Conner 43%

If anyone should be singled out for awful play it's Conner.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

That's hockey.

Wonder how many goals were scored against Edmonton with 99 on the ice or 97 even.

A quick glance says that both those guys were on the ice for more points for than against... that's the point of an offence first player. Reward exceeds risk.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Scheifele was only a -2 in terms of 5 on 5 goal differential the second half of the year. Not great but what were system players Lowry and Barron's excuses? Both had worse differentials then Mark.

Anyhow the top of the differential list is mostly top 6 players.

Perfetti 78%
Namestnikov 64%
Wheeler 59%
Ehlers 57%
Appelton 55%
Dubois/Nino 53%
Scheifele 48%
Barron 46%
Lowry 45%
Conner 43%

If anyone should be singled out for awful play it's Conner.

KC gets a free ride on here but definitely was noticeably worse last year.

 

[gojetsgo]

What's the point of scoring goals if you're on the ice for more goals against...

In the second half, the guy was -16 in games against playoff teams (incl Calgary) - no one else on the team is anywhere close except maybe Pionk who seems to have fallen off a cliff.

5v5 during the season he was on the ice for 56 goals for and 55 against and had people been able to finish during the second half of the year that number would have improved... +/- is a horrible stat and also would have improved had we been able to score as well... but I guess having a bad +/- means that he stopped playing the system?