Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[ps241]

To be honest I don’t even think Perfetti would care about picks and prospects. These guys are basically mercenaries more or less randomly distributed around the league. They care about who is in the room with them today not who might be in 5 years. At best 1/10 players plays out his career for 1 team. Statistically Cole is more likely to play for another team then with whoever we draft next season as part of any futures trade.

I have little interest in a player playing out his career with us. If it happens its great but only if that last deal is not a crap contract value wise. That being said I would like to keep Cole for all his 20’s if we can. Those are often the most productive years anyways.

I agree about players being mercenaries but disagree with them only caring about who is in the room with them today for the young stars. People correctly said Chevy did a good job retaining players in Winnipeg for the first half of his career. I think that had to do with who was in the room at the time but also who was going to be in the room for the next 5-7 years. There was a young group to believe in and grow with. The future looked compelling.

Cole will be a 22 year old RFA at the end of this upcoming season. Lure of a huge payday notwithstanding, I see a low probability of him signing a 7 or 8 year second contract like Schiefele, Connor, or Ehlers did. Times are a bit different now but I think all he has to do is take a look to the left and right of him in the locker room as they head into the 2023-24 off season and unless something changes he might want to go short to hedge his bets.

My hopes are we begin to backfill the roster with some of the emerging prospects over the next 3 seasons but prospects can be unpredictable (for better or worse).

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Its a bit premature to talk about building a core around Perfetti when he hasn't played a full season in The NHL. I hope he emerges as a centre this season but right now, he's very much an Ehlers type player and I don't think you build a team around that.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So why were some of the players pissed off that Chevy didn't do more last year at the deadline if they knew they were a bubble team and werent going to win? I think if you are an athlete in the fight you believe you have a chance to win. After the year and you have time to think sure they may have different views.

Because some of them get so caught up in the moment that their competitive juices are doing their thinking. When the fight is over, they can figure it out.

Coaches suffer from short term thinking. GMs do too, but less so than coaches. Players have the shortest horizon of all. Look at the last line in the post you are quoting. By now they know that they were not good enough last year. They can figure out that it hasn't changed enough to make a difference. Or do you think that weaker top 6, stronger bottom 6, everything else unchanged is going to make them a contender?

The logic of is similar to the often stated one that coaches will play a known bad vet over an unknown rookie who may be bad but also may be good. You are suggesting that to give your best players the impression that you are trying to win you will deliberately do things that reduce your chances of winning.

It is OK to try to win now, if you have the horses. Trying to win now if you don't have the horses is not only futile, it reduces your potential to ever get them. You can't always be in win now mode.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What the players want done about it is probably the exact opposite on what you and many other fans want done about it. I’d guess to a player they would prefer to keep their #1 Center and Vezina goalie over a draft pick that might become a player at some unknown time in the future. Established players care nothing about future draft picks. Most of them won’t even be around when next year’s draft picks make the NHL. These guys take everything on the ice one season at a time and let management worry about the future. All this becomes doubly true in the heat of a playoff battle. Then especially they want no part of the team trading top players for far away futures.

Don't disagree. But the players are not the ones who should be making this decision.

How will those same players feel a year from now when that 1C and Vezina goalie are gone for nothing? Jets will be in rebuild mode then, like it or not.

This issue is not about how those players feel today, or opening day. It is about how they are going to feel when it is time for them to sign their extensions.

 

[Been around]

Because some of them get so caught up in the moment that their competitive juices are doing their thinking. When the fight is over, they can figure it out.

Coaches suffer from short term thinking. GMs do too, but less so than coaches. Players have the shortest horizon of all. Look at the last line in the post you are quoting. By now they know that they were not good enough last year. They can figure out that it hasn't changed enough to make a difference. Or do you think that weaker top 6, stronger bottom 6, everything else unchanged is going to make them a contender?

The logic of is similar to the often stated one that coaches will play a known bad vet over an unknown rookie who may be bad but also may be good. You are suggesting that to give your best players the impression that you are trying to win you will deliberately do things that reduce your chances of winning.

It is OK to try to win now, if you have the horses. Trying to win now if you don't have the horses is not only futile, it reduces your potential to ever get them. You can't always be in win now mode.

Sorry this is stupid...no different than saying never believe in yourself

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is a key point. Connor was clear that he doesn't want a rebuild. I'd bet Ehlers and any other players in the prime of their careers would want out of a team that was in full rebuild mode.

So, if the Jets go into a rebuild (by trading 55 and 37 for futures), the Jets would be looking at an exodus of Connor, Vilardi, Ehlers, etc. over the next few years. Now you have to deal with a protracted rebuild over a longer timeline, that could end up with a deep spiral for a franchise that is already a hard-sell.

That's why I think the Jets are trying to make hockey trades for Hellebuyck and Scheifele, rather than futures, as they did with PLD.

If the Jets do decide to fold the tent sometime this season and trade 55 and 37 for 1sts / prospects at the TDL, I could see them trying to rebound right away by moving picks at the draft to acquire roster talent right away, with lots of cap flexibility. That maneuver would fulfill one of my favourite "value" moves available in the NHL - acquire picks at the TDL when pick value is at its least, and trade picks at the draft when pick value is at its peak.

The trouble is that the status quo is not an option beyond 1 year. I'm all in favour of a couple of good hockey trades. If that is not possible I am in favour of extending Helle and Scheifele.

As it looks today, neither of those things are happening. That could change at any moment but until it does it looks like either trade them for futures and start something of a rebuild now or play it out 1 more year and start a rebuild without the benefit of whatever return we might have gotten for them.

Maybe the potential of that 1 more year is worth it. Would another WC2 and out in 5 games justify it? I sure as HELL hope not!

Was last year's first half season the real Jets, or was the second half the real Jets? If it was the second half then even with the changes so far we likely miss the PO altogether. If it was half way in between, we probably get similar results to last year. Maybe go out in 7 games instead of 5.

 

[Weezeric]

Because some of them get so caught up in the moment that their competitive juices are doing their thinking. When the fight is over, they can figure it out.

Coaches suffer from short term thinking. GMs do too, but less so than coaches. Players have the shortest horizon of all. Look at the last line in the post you are quoting. By now they know that they were not good enough last year. They can figure out that it hasn't changed enough to make a difference. Or do you think that weaker top 6, stronger bottom 6, everything else unchanged is going to make them a contender?

The logic of is similar to the often stated one that coaches will play a known bad vet over an unknown rookie who may be bad but also may be good. You are suggesting that to give your best players the impression that you are trying to win you will deliberately do things that reduce your chances of winning.

It is OK to try to win now, if you have the horses. Trying to win now if you don't have the horses is not only futile, it reduces your potential to ever get them. You can't always be in win now mode.

How do you know when you have the horses?

Vegas missed the playoffs two years ago. Their top players were 30 or older. Should they have sold off everyone and gone young?

 

[NA Hockey]

Its a bit premature to talk about building a core around Perfetti when he hasn't played a full season in The NHL. I hope he emerges as a centre this season but right now, he's very much an Ehlers type player and I don't think you build a team around that.

Perfetti is the beginning of a new core/turnover that will happen over the next few years. You aren't building solely around him, but with him as a key piece of the core for many years to come. I expect/hope he signs next year for long term, as opposed to a bridge. Regardless, if he is a centre or not, it doesn't make a difference of whether he is part of the new core. It is based on the timing and his age as he is leading the new core has it happens because he is the first to graduate.

Lucious, McGroarty, Barlow, Lambert should all be a part of that core going forward, but none are centrepiece type players but more pieces aof an overall core.

 

[ps241]

Its a bit premature to talk about building a core around Perfetti when he hasn't played a full season in The NHL. I hope he emerges as a centre this season but right now, he's very much an Ehlers type player and I don't think you build a team around that.

I would say our core for the past 3ish years has been Wheeler, Schiefele, PLD, Connor, Ehlers, Morrissey, and Hellebuyck. Not sure If I am fogettting anyone?

The core starting the 2024-25 season from that list would be Connor, Ehlers (pending UFA), Morrissey

Hopefully Perfetti by then (he will be 23 turning 24 that season, Also I hope Vilardi grows into the core (We’ll see with both these guys).

Once we get two years out who knows but at some point its going to come from our prospect pool.

 

[Potrzebie]

To be fair, it's where he played the one year we almost had the beat team in the league...

he was 2C until the trade deadline where he got bumped down to 3C with the arrival of Stastny. The C depth that year was excellent after the TDL.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the numbers had been posted here a few times back then that almost any way you can measure it, #18 was a good 1C and a very good 2C.

 

[DRW204]

Its a bit premature to talk about building a core around Perfetti when he hasn't played a full season in The NHL. I hope he emerges as a centre this season but right now, he's very much an Ehlers type player and I don't think you build a team around that.

He's their most promising young player. If it's not perfetti than who?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I hope this also.

I don't really see the Jets as a "tough choice" org. That's fine -- they have their modus operandi and their reasons. You can always make the case for an own rental, esp if you're a team that's way down the list in the rental markets, but is it always a good case?

Felt the same way about the Hayes acquisition -- sure, there was a case to be made that the Jets had the horses that year and that Hayes was the horse to make a difference, but the equally compelling counter-narrative was that the team had been a long slide, and the better move might have been to sell or at least hold on the preponderance of evidence.

I don't see a right answer here, because there are so many ways to adjust the timeline to make pretty much any move seem right or wrong, with the odd exception (see Copp).

But I do think the Jets could benefit from a few shifts in how they manage themselves and their assets, roster and prospect. Maybe moving 55 and/or 37 is the first step along that journey. I do think that the org loves their guys and hates to let them go.

One question, perhaps, in light of recent years, is how reliably good they are at deciding who "their guys" should be.

Maurice and Wheeler are both interesting examples here, contested as their (quite different) departures were.

Every organization needs to be a 'tough choice' organization when called for.

The arithmetic is the same for own rentals as it is for those you would trade for. Rentals is rentals.
Rentals can be good, if the price is right. For top tier rentals, the price is seldom right. These prospective own rentals of ours are in that top tier. The closest anyone can come to justifying top tier rentals is when they are on the edge of truly contending and a rental might push the team over that line. The Jets are not even close to that line.

 

[surixon]

The trouble is that the status quo is not an option beyond 1 year. I'm all in favour of a couple of good hockey trades. If that is not possible I am in favour of extending Helle and Scheifele.

As it looks today, neither of those things are happening. That could change at any moment but until it does it looks like either trade them for futures and start something of a rebuild now or play it out 1 more year and start a rebuild without the benefit of whatever return we might have gotten for them.

Maybe the potential of that 1 more year is worth it. Would another WC2 and out in 5 games justify it? I sure as HELL hope not!

Was last year's first half season the real Jets, or was the second half the real Jets? If it was the second half then even with the changes so far we likely miss the PO altogether. If it was half way in between, we probably get similar results to last year. Maybe go out in 7 games instead of 5.

I mean Mort this year's roster isn't a status quo roster. There will be two new top 6 players due to Dubois and Wheeler leaving and we will have some new and improved bottom 6 depth. The team is likely also counting on growth from Perfetti, Snerg, Vilardi, Kupri and Barron. All of which are young and should be trending up.

I think the team is much better and deeper then last year. This should help mitigate against the teams finish going ice cold again.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Real good conversation. There are pros and cons to both lines of thinking.

My guess is it depends how this team performs early and/or if a team steps up and makes an offer Chevy finds acceptable early enough in the year.

I doubt Chevy would trade either at the deadline if we are clearly in a playoff spot, but I bet he'd deal one or both in the first half of the year whe teams are still making hockey deals. I.e Laine for Dubois.

That appears to be our best hope right now.

 

[Whileee]

The trouble is that the status quo is not an option beyond 1 year. I'm all in favour of a couple of good hockey trades. If that is not possible I am in favour of extending Helle and Scheifele.

As it looks today, neither of those things are happening. That could change at any moment but until it does it looks like either trade them for futures and start something of a rebuild now or play it out 1 more year and start a rebuild without the benefit of whatever return we might have gotten for them.

Maybe the potential of that 1 more year is worth it. Would another WC2 and out in 5 games justify it? I sure as HELL hope not!

Was last year's first half season the real Jets, or was the second half the real Jets? If it was the second half then even with the changes so far we likely miss the PO altogether. If it was half way in between, we probably get similar results to last year. Maybe go out in 7 games instead of 5.

The "2nd half Jets" were actually better than the 1st half Jets, based on 5v5 shot metrics. It's not particularly close. Jets' 1st half was based on shooting and goaltending performance, not generation and prevention of shots and scoring chances. I'm still puzzled as to why so many that point to data as an important guide to assessing player and team performance abandon it so readily. See below.

Regarding the timeline, it really depends on whether you think the upcoming season has a lot less value than some future season(s). If the proposal is to dump this season and start a rebuild, a wide set of considerations come into play. Can the Jets get value for all of their pending UFAs in one season, considering that there is a limited number of buyers, picks and cap space at each TDL.

If the Jets signal the rebuild now, and they get a few high-profile players asking for trades, does that reduce trade values for those players (e.g. Ehlers, Connor)?

Would the Jets struggle to retain some core players like Vilardi, if they tire of losing in the next couple of years?

Could the Jets consider replacing Scheifele in a couple of years from their pipeline (Lucius, McGroarty, Barlow, Lambert, Chibrikov), rather than through trade?

Might a strong season and playoff run change perspectives on re-signing with the Jets?

 

[buggs]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the numbers had been posted here a few times back then that almost any way you can measure it, #18 was a good 1C and a very good 2C.

You have to go back in the archive quite a ways, but the Bryan Little thread remains and there is an excellent discussion with solid statistical backup on his play. You are correct: he was a top 30 C at the time and once Scheifele excelled, a very good 2C. Garret illustrated this quite well. But Little did not put up enough points for many people to consider him a 1C, the most consistent knock on him.

He did not mesh well with Laine however and that soured a lot of people on him. When Stats was brought in there was a great deal more chemistry there. Much as I like Laine I think you can easily put just as much blame on him for the lack of chemistry as you can on Little.

I think he was arguably the ideal foil to Scheifele being 1C - a very responsible defensive center who did his job in the defensive end. Watching the play of Little vs Scheifele below their own red line is like night and day. To be fair, Scheifele brings a lot more offense. But having both was ideal as the Jets could give Little the harder defensive matchups and it worked quite well in our favor.

Still hoping the Jets can bring back Little in some capacity and I hope to see his name/number raised to the rafters, hopefully the same night they do the same for Wheeler.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How do you know it won't ever work with this bunch? The roster has seen probably a 70% turnover the last 3 years.

This is a very different group of players then the teams Helle carried circa 20-22.

No Wheeler so different leadership group.

We were a team that was pushing top 1/3 in the league in terms of underlying metrics last year and imo we are even deeper this year.

So to me this isn't a bubble team but a clear playoff team. It's probably the best team we've iced since 18-19 and our division isn't much to write home about.

Yes the contract situation with Mark and Helle is concerning but the GM's job is to build a good team and imo he's built a good and deep team.

I don't like your bet.
Even if I accept your optimism for this year's team, it is one and done.

I don't entirely share your optimism for this year. Our F are deeper, no doubt. But we are looking at a lot of 'ifs'. If Vilardi and Perfetti can remain healthy. If either of them can succeed at 2C. If Iafallo and Kupari live up to expectations. If we get good year Brossoit. If Helle has another good year. If Scheifele plays like it is a contract year. If Scheifele gels with his wingers. If Pionk can rebound. If JoMo can repeat his play of last year.

If we go 50/50 on those 'ifs' we are probably about the same as last year, maybe just a little better.

And at the end, even if we are better than that, we are facing a rebuild starting next off-season instead of this one. The only thing that changes that is extending Scheifele and Helle.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sorry this is stupid...no different than saying never believe in yourself

Sorry That's ridiculous.

There is no don't believe in yourself there and there is no never there either.

And don't call me stupid.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How do you know when you have the horses?

Vegas missed the playoffs two years ago. Their top players were 30 or older. Should they have sold off everyone and gone young?

No, because they knew they had some of the horses and the resources and determination to get the rest.

Are you saying that you never know what you have until you give them another shot? And then another one, and another one?

Consider this situation:
You have 2 options. 1) Go into a rebuild with the returns on Scheifele and Helle. 2) go into a rebuild 1 year later with zero return on Scheifele and Helle.

The reward for choosing option 2 is whatever we get this year.
Do you honestly think we have the horses now? Or good odds of having them now?

Truth is that we still have some other possibilities. Hockey trades could still happen. Deadline trades could happen. Extensions could happen. What if it turns out we can extend one but not the other? But based on current appearances, it is those 2.

 

[surixon]

I don't like your bet.
Even if I accept your optimism for this year's team, it is one and done.

I don't entirely share your optimism for this year. Our F are deeper, no doubt. But we are looking at a lot of 'ifs'. If Vilardi and Perfetti can remain healthy. If either of them can succeed at 2C. If Iafallo and Kupari live up to expectations. If we get good year Brossoit. If Helle has another good year. If Scheifele plays like it is a contract year. If Scheifele gels with his wingers. If Pionk can rebound. If JoMo can repeat his play of last year.

If we go 50/50 on those 'ifs' we are probably about the same as last year, maybe just a little better.

And at the end, even if we are better than that, we are facing a rebuild starting next off-season instead of this one. The only thing that changes that is extending Scheifele and Helle.

I mean we could do the what if game for every team in the league. They all have question marks, and any cup winner needs a lot to break right for them.

I'm not expecting a cup winners but I can see a team that if it is healthy can go on a run.

The team will be transitioning to a younger core starting as soon as next year. None of our prospect forwards are ready for roles now so what is the harm in taking another shot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I mean Mort this year's roster isn't a status quo roster. There will be two new top 6 players due to Dubois and Wheeler leaving and we will have some new and improved bottom 6 depth. The team is likely also counting on growth from Perfetti, Snerg, Vilardi, Kupri and Barron. All of which are young and should be trending up.

I think the team is much better and deeper then last year. This should help mitigate against the teams finish going ice cold again.

I agree it is deeper. Better, or much better, remains to be seen.

I think we are much weaker at top 6C unless Vilardi really steps up there. I think that Perfetti winning that spot will mean a downgrade there for at least a year, if not 2. Maybe indefinitely.

Expecting so many players to get better year over year is unrealistic, IMO. Barron is approaching 25 YO. He is probably as good as he is going to get. Kupari may or may not have been held back by the situation in LA. He may or may not get better usage here. Snerg may have done his growing last year. Late season Snerg may be as good as we get. He is also 24+ YO, just a couple of months younger than Barron. Vilardi had his breakout season last year. That may be as good as it gets. There are the questions of whether he is a C or a W and then his health. Perfetti is the only 1 highly likely to improve and there is the health question with him too.

Defensive play by F may make a big difference if the defensively weak F can be sheltered or supported by defensively better linemates. I see that as the biggest potential improvement and that needs to be seen. That and a rebound from Pionk and a lot of luck with injuries.

I find myself wondering just how much better they have to be to make the arithmetic of those own rentals work. It is this one season against the potential of multiple seasons from multiple players. If the return is picks or prospects whose ELCs have slid then we are looking at a minimum of 7 years from each and possibly longer. Even if it is limited to 7 years the possibility of trading those assets for more assets 5-6 years down the line would exist so the chain gets quite long. So ...... would winning 1 series do it? Two? Three? Making the SCF would be pretty special. How long would the joy last? Habs fans still talk about it from 2 years ago but I don't think the events since have left them with a lot of joy from that 1 PO.

I doubt that any one and done season will do it for me, or many other Jets fans. I want to see a window of contention that lasts for a while.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The "2nd half Jets" were actually better than the 1st half Jets, based on 5v5 shot metrics. It's not particularly close. Jets' 1st half was based on shooting and goaltending performance, not generation and prevention of shots and scoring chances. I'm still puzzled as to why so many that point to data as an important guide to assessing player and team performance abandon it so readily. See below.

Regarding the timeline, it really depends on whether you think the upcoming season has a lot less value than some future season(s). If the proposal is to dump this season and start a rebuild, a wide set of considerations come into play. Can the Jets get value for all of their pending UFAs in one season, considering that there is a limited number of buyers, picks and cap space at each TDL.

If the Jets signal the rebuild now, and they get a few high-profile players asking for trades, does that reduce trade values for those players (e.g. Ehlers, Connor)?

Would the Jets struggle to retain some core players like Vilardi, if they tire of losing in the next couple of years?

Could the Jets consider replacing Scheifele in a couple of years from their pipeline (Lucius, McGroarty, Barlow, Lambert, Chibrikov), rather than through trade?

Might a strong season and playoff run change perspectives on re-signing with the Jets?

View attachment 731706

I can't believe that Whileee. I was watching. There were stretches in that 2nd half where they were absolutely pathetic. Painful to watch. I thought the scores flattered them quite often, even in losses.

I'm not arguing against advanced statistical analysis or your ability to work with the stats. But I suspect that some of them fail to either predict or describe actual play. They need to be validated by comparison to a large set of actual results. It is the scores of the games that actually count.

I'm at a point where my age colours my view point. Seriously, I don't have a lot of time to wait for a winner. I don't want to wait for a rebuild. If it is not a very fast one, I won't live to see it bear fruit. I much prefer extending both Helle and Scheifele. If not, then good hockey trades. But if not that, I want to get the best value possible for them. One and done doesn't do it for me, even though the chances of that one being my last one are pretty high. I am in good health which means I might get 3-4-5 even 6 more seasons, but the odds drop pretty sharply each year. It is not unlike that 5 year contract Wheeler was just bought out from. My 5 year contract may be bought out too - at any time.

 

[10Ducky10]

The "2nd half Jets" were actually better than the 1st half Jets, based on 5v5 shot metrics. It's not particularly close. Jets' 1st half was based on shooting and goaltending performance, not generation and prevention of shots and scoring chances. I'm still puzzled as to why so many that point to data as an important guide to assessing player and team performance abandon it so readily. See below.

Regarding the timeline, it really depends on whether you think the upcoming season has a lot less value than some future season(s). If the proposal is to dump this season and start a rebuild, a wide set of considerations come into play. Can the Jets get value for all of their pending UFAs in one season, considering that there is a limited number of buyers, picks and cap space at each TDL.

If the Jets signal the rebuild now, and they get a few high-profile players asking for trades, does that reduce trade values for those players (e.g. Ehlers, Connor)?

Would the Jets struggle to retain some core players like Vilardi, if they tire of losing in the next couple of years?

Could the Jets consider replacing Scheifele in a couple of years from their pipeline (Lucius, McGroarty, Barlow, Lambert, Chibrikov), rather than through trade?

Might a strong season and playoff run change perspectives on re-signing with the Jets?

View attachment 731706

How many points did they score in the first 41 games compared to the last 41 games?

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Barron just spent his first full year in the NHL. Some guys do develop later. Not saying he is going to be like say a Barbeshev there is the possibility he produces at a higher rate moving forward.

Production isn't the end all be all. Snerg just needs to be more like a solid puck mover then a point producer. Thought he really developed in that respect last season and he has something you can't teach and that is size. Something that seems to be more and more important on the back end. I think he likely reaches 20 points next year and solidifies his place in the top 4.

Trading Helly and Scheif for futures does nothing for this team right now. Unless you are making hockey moves. LIke Helly for Nemec and Scheif for Swayman then you hope those guys live up to expectations.

Trading them for late 1sts and prospects right now makes us worse and sends a poor message.

Correct me if I am wrong have we ever let a significant player leave for nothing? Was it just Wheeler?

 

[Been around]

Sorry That's ridiculous.

There is no don't believe in yourself there and there is no never there either.

And don't call me stupid.

Noone called u stupid but the premise is,...and what you're describing is exactly that