Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Guffman]

Jets generally have efficient use of their salary cap spend (which they generally hit near the cap with). Aside from RHD (Schmidt and Pionk), we are getting fair/good value from all of our contracts. Our issues are that the team underperformed relative to their paper strength.

Yes, Winnipeg is an undesirable place, which makes it difficult to attract UFAs, but UFAs are not efficient salary cap spends to begin with. They’re plug-in players when your development system or trades could not find that type of player.

I am OK with how the Jets operate. Ditching all of the players they have developed to go scorched earth may not bear fruit and some teams blunder on for years without getting back into contention. Any team that makes the playoffs can succeed if you get on a fortuitous roll.

Will the Winnipeg Jets ever win the Stanley Cup in my lifetime? Who knows. My dreams are that they actually win their division… something that the Winnipeg Jets have never accomplished. How sad is that?

 

[Guffman]

I do think it's difficult to identify draftees thay aren't going to want to go to big markets when you're interviewing them at 17 or 18 years old.

I thought the Jets approach is to select players from Nordic countries, Canada and Minnesota.

Anyways, maybe they can get a feel for this based on their personalities but it won’t be flawless. Winnipeg has generally done well at getting their players to commit long-term though I think that’s a function of getting young skilled players growing up with the team together.

 

[macmaroon]

67% not 75%...sorry a bit anal about math.

I've got two t-shirts for that...

 

[Whileee]

Jets line-up, with a rough summary of their draft value in a re-draft (I used JFresh's crowd sourced draft ranking - not scientific).

Forwards:

(Wheeler) - #4

2010
Niederreiter - #13

2011
Scheifele - #7
Lowry - #28
DeMelo - #33
Brossoit - #39

2012
Hellebuyck - #2
(Trouba) - #10

2013
Morrissey - #9
(Copp) - #25
(Poolman) - #52

2014
Ehlers - #11

2015
Connor - #8
Roslovic - #35
Appleton - #46

2016
(Laine) - #8
(Dubois) - #11
Stanley - #34

2017
Vilardi - #13
Barron - #46
Samberg - #48

Notably, three of the Jets' starting D weren't drafted: DeMelo, Dillon and Pionk.

 

[DRW204]

teams win and are successful in all shapes and sizes.

to me:
- every team is a draft and/or develop team.... some teams like Vegas is they trade prospects for high-end help now. i remember when E. Brannstrom was hyped up as the next best thing and one of the top defenders outside the NHL. Vegas trades basically him straight up for Stone. What is brannstrom today exactly?
- you probably economically cannot build a team through UFA
- trade or sign for lower-named / depth charted players that rate well, but before they actually break-out in a big way (ie: sigenthaler, marino, demelo, d. toews, val nichushkin, a. lehkonen, carter v., g. forsling, b. montour, hagel, sprong, c. stephenson list goes on) i think is what is setting teams apart. basically hunting for value.
- both high-end talent as well as scoring depth is important
- need good goaltending

the Jets imo will likely not be big players in the high-end trade or FA market. so, they need to draft/develop really well especially outside the 1st or when they do not have a top-16 pick. also point 3) above imo they need to be one of the most active teams in the league in that player market.

 

[ps241]

Jets line-up, with a rough summary of their draft value in a re-draft (I used JFresh's crowd sourced draft ranking - not scientific).

Forwards:

(Wheeler) - #4

2010
Niederreiter - #13

2011
Scheifele - #7
Lowry - #28
DeMelo - #33
Brossoit - #39

2012
Hellebuyck - #2
(Trouba) - #10

2013
Morrissey - #9
(Copp) - #25
(Poolman) - #52

2014
Ehlers - #11

2015
Connor - #8
Roslovic - #35
Appleton - #46

2016
(Laine) - #8
(Dubois) - #11
Stanley - #34

2017
Vilardi - #13
Barron - #46
Samberg - #48

Notably, three of the Jets' starting D weren't drafted: DeMelo, Dillon and Pionk.

This is a cool idea.

The biggest fallers being Laine and PLD. No surprise that the biggest lift comes from picks that hit after the 2nd round.

 

[DRW204]

 

[surixon]

Surprised he didn't get more in terms of bonus money. But good on the Canes to lock him up. It's right in around his cohort range in Point and Barzal.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

The Jets need to take a step back this year or next - much like they did after the Ducks series... they have strayed away from the 'develop' side of their plan for a while now and the Hillier era of drafting has been very average for an organization that needs late round hits.

I do think trading both Scheif and Helle would be beneficial for the long-term health of the team - given what Chevy got for PLD - but you need roster players not picks. I don't see how your 1C can openly say he plays his own style while your coach is pushing for buy-in - just get a fresh start for everyone, its coming regardless.

Again, I would only draft Centres or Defence in the first round - and yes I would have taken Chabot over Connor... 1C or top pairing D are hard to find if you don't have top ten picks. that being said, maybe Chevy scored a win with Vilardi.

I don't mind being in the mushy middle - I think all Jets fans know that's where we are going to be anyway... but Hillier needs a Robertson or Aho if the Jets are going to compete - hopefully Chib is that guy but we need him, Lambert, Salomondsson, McGro, etc in the lineup within the next two years.

Jets missed their 'retool' window in 2019-20 when everyone still had years to go on their deals - I think the org is different today if you played Copp and/or Roslo at 2C for a full season instead of fkn Cody Eakin and ran Heinola or Kova instead of Bitetto - yeah you likely miss the playoffs but ONE of them would have hit and you're not scrambling to trade for vets.

The Maurice era became 'draft and develop scrap' hopefully Bones is open to a young roster for at least a season... but I'm not sold that he is.

Draft your C and D, trade picks for Ninos and Names types, draft late round goalies... get players into the NHL after one season on the Moose.

 

[John Agar]

Today an article from James O'Brien... re: Boston needing a centre... and Chef is named..

Disregard if you are ill equipped with Apps or need Coles Notes...

Bruins can't replace Patrice Bergeron, but these 5 players could be worth a look

The Bruins have a few paths to consider as they attempt to fill the void left by Patrice Bergeron's retirement.

ca.sports.yahoo.com

 

[Buffdog]

Man, with this thread plus two or three "retool" threads AND the trade rumour thread, it gets confusing to try to track which posts are where.

Any chance we can at least get one "direction of the roster" thread and merge them? Maynbe a lot to ask from mods, but it would make life easier for old confused fellas (and ladies) like me

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Man, with this thread plus two or three "retool" threads AND the trade rumour thread, it gets confusing to try to track which posts are where.

Any chance we can at least get one "direction of the roster" thread and merge them? Maynbe a lot to ask from mods, but it would make life easier for old confused fellas (and ladies) like me

Merged a few threads together we can use this one all purpose rebuild/trade/whatever thread till the season gets underway

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Are we underrating the value of a year's worth of a great player, and overrating the value of a first round draft pick + prospect?

If it's so obvious and stupid to walk a player to free agency, why are so many other GM's willing to pay the first rounder + prospect price for them as rentals? Not to say GMs always make perfect decisions, but you'd think the value would be at least close to commensurate.

It is all about short term thinking. You are comparing just making the PO to just missing them, or out of the first round in 4 games vs 7 games, or winning 1 rd vs losing in the first round on the one hand vs having 1 or 2 good to very good players for 7 -10 years. Its horrible value but it is now vs years from now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Which playoff team sells off their good expiring players at the deadline?

I've seen very little evidence outside of St. Louis the year we got Stastny of teams doing this.

If the Jets go into the year with Mark and Conner and we perform really well, they are going ton stay on the roster as self rentals. Just like what 95% of other playoff teams do with self rentals.

But what if we are not doing really well. What if we are just on the PO bubble and destined to make WC2 and be blown out in 4-5 games?

Other teams, or GMs doing something is the worst kind of appeal to authority. It is no reason to do the same things that they are doing. If Jets want to succeed they have to do some things differently. Doing the same things as everyone else with the handicaps Jets have is a guaranteed mediocrity - at best.

Yea you don't see new starting goalies often at the tdl. I think they realize it may take to get acclimated and gel with a new team so the on ice return possibly may not be as good as expected. Given how random or journeyman goalies can go on a heater and win you a cup (hill, Murray, Binnington... Kuemper to a lesser extent) I think is making the goalie market even trickier.

Also if you're a PO or cup bound team chances are you already have a good goaltending, or someone you're comfortable with. Korpisalo was the only starter moved at this past tdl IIRC.

The bolded explains the lack of golaies being moved at the TD, or at least half explains it. The other half is that teams missing the PO don't usually have top tier goalies.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I guess my view is that talent retention is just as important as acquisition. So to me the question is how do you balance retaining the talent you have vs. Acquiring new talent.

Retention goes beyond 55 and 37. How does this org convice Conner, JoMo etc to stay invested in the program? Beyond treating the players extremely well (which they do a great job of according to numerous players over the years) I think showing your committed to winning is the other main key.

I think Chevy would move both Mark and Helle if a team meets his ask. If that doesn't happen what is the opportunity cost of selling them in season for a 1st and B prospect vs. Showing the rest of the team that your trying to win.

You might bet a Copp type package or maybe you get what turned to be a dud type package I.e Ladd deal.

Showing the rest of the team that you are trying to win is meaningless if you do not actually win. The players can see that they are a bubble team and they can see that nothing is being done to change that.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is a key point. Connor was clear that he doesn't want a rebuild. I'd bet Ehlers and any other players in the prime of their careers would want out of a team that was in full rebuild mode.

So, if the Jets go into a rebuild (by trading 55 and 37 for futures), the Jets would be looking at an exodus of Connor, Vilardi, Ehlers, etc. over the next few years. Now you have to deal with a protracted rebuild over a longer timeline, that could end up with a deep spiral for a franchise that is already a hard-sell.

That's why I think the Jets are trying to make hockey trades for Hellebuyck and Scheifele, rather than futures, as they did with PLD.

If the Jets do decide to fold the tent sometime this season and trade 55 and 37 for 1sts / prospects at the TDL, I could see them trying to rebound right away by moving picks at the draft to acquire roster talent right away, with lots of cap flexibility. That maneuver would fulfill one of my favourite "value" moves available in the NHL - acquire picks at the TDL when pick value is at its least, and trade picks at the draft when pick value is at its peak.

Trying to make hockey trades is fine. There are arguments pro and con for a retool vs a deeper rebuild. But keeping players of that calibre because you don't want to go into a deep rebuild when letting them walk pushes you into a deep rebuild whether you want it or not is foolish.

There is a scenario, however unlikely where that works. But it is the only scenario. You keep them, go on a deep PO run which convinces them to stay. That's it. If you let them walk you don't get the hockey trade return and you don't get the futures either. You get yourself into a rebuild without the benefit of those futures. You have the worst of both worlds.

 

[tbcwpg]

Players won't say "I want out because the team isn't trading good players for futures".

 

[surixon]

Showing the rest of the team that you are trying to win is meaningless if you do not actually win. The players can see that they are a bubble team and they can see that nothing is being done to change that.

So why were some of the players pissed off that Chevy didn't do more last year at the deadline if they knew they were a bubble team and werent going to win? I think if you are an athlete in the fight you believe you have a chance to win. After the year and you have time to think sure they may have different views.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

So why were some of the players pissed off that Chevy didn't do more last year at the deadline if they knew they were a bubble team and werent going to win? I think if you are an athlete in the fight you believe you have a chance to win. After the year and you have time to think sure they may have different views.

I think the news that Timo Meier essentially nixed a deadline trade to the Jets was a tough pill to swallow - probably worse than Chevy just sitting on his hands...

That being said, Nino and Names did their part - and I consider last TD a win.. especially since we didn't trade Barlow for a couple months of Meier

 

[KingBogo]

Showing the rest of the team that you are trying to win is meaningless if you do not actually win. The players can see that they are a bubble team and they can see that nothing is being done to change that.

What the players want done about it is probably the exact opposite on what you and many other fans want done about it. I’d guess to a player they would prefer to keep their #1 Center and Vezina goalie over a draft pick that might become a player at some unknown time in the future. Established players care nothing about future draft picks. Most of them won’t even be around when next year’s draft picks make the NHL. These guys take everything on the ice one season at a time and let management worry about the future. All this becomes doubly true in the heat of a playoff battle. Then especially they want no part of the team trading top players for far away futures.

 

[bumblebeeman]

The Jets need to take a step back this year or next - much like they did after the Ducks series... they have strayed away from the 'develop' side of their plan for a while now and the Hillier era of drafting has been very average for an organization that needs late round hits.

I do think trading both Scheif and Helle would be beneficial for the long-term health of the team - given what Chevy got for PLD - but you need roster players not picks. I don't see how your 1C can openly say he plays his own style while your coach is pushing for buy-in - just get a fresh start for everyone, its coming regardless.

Again, I would only draft Centres or Defence in the first round - and yes I would have taken Chabot over Connor... 1C or top pairing D are hard to find if you don't have top ten picks. that being said, maybe Chevy scored a win with Vilardi.

I don't mind being in the mushy middle - I think all Jets fans know that's where we are going to be anyway... but Hillier needs a Robertson or Aho if the Jets are going to compete - hopefully Chib is that guy but we need him, Lambert, Salomondsson, McGro, etc in the lineup within the next two years.

Jets missed their 'retool' window in 2019-20 when everyone still had years to go on their deals - I think the org is different today if you played Copp and/or Roslo at 2C for a full season instead of fkn Cody Eakin and ran Heinola or Kova instead of Bitetto - yeah you likely miss the playoffs but ONE of them would have hit and you're not scrambling to trade for vets.

The Maurice era became 'draft and develop scrap' hopefully Bones is open to a young roster for at least a season... but I'm not sold that he is.

Draft your C and D, trade picks for Ninos and Names types, draft late round goalies... get players into the NHL after one season on the Moose.

I don't think I agree about only drafting Cs and Ds. I think you go with whoever you think has the highest potential, getting any player who is top line all star calibre is most important, and the hardest kind of players to find. A recent debated pick that most lines up with that is the Perfetti vs Lundell choice. Lundell would be great on the Jets as a long term 2C (tho he's 3rd line on the Panthers), but Perfetti has even higher potential it seems to be a top line guy. But who knows how they will develop.

Also Eakins only played 12 games for the Jets, and Heinola was only 18 when Bitetto was playing (tho I remember being impressed with his early season games).

But no reason to rush young players. That can often do more harm than good. Let's wait and see guys you named like Lambert, Salomonsson, Mcgroart, Lucius etc. tear it up with the Moose before thinking about them getting a chance with the Jets

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I don't think I agree about only drafting Cs and Ds. I think you go with whoever you think has the highest potential, getting any player who is top line all star calibre is most important, and the hardest kind of players to find. A recent debated pick that most lines up with that is the Perfetti vs Lundell choice. Lundell would be great on the Jets as a long term 2C (tho he's 3rd line on the Panthers), but Perfetti has even higher potential it seems to be a top line guy. But who knows how they will develop.

Also Eakins only played 12 games for the Jets, and Heinola was only 18 when Bitetto was playing (tho I remember being impressed with his early season games).

But no reason to rush young players. That can often do more harm than good. Let's wait and see guys you named like Lambert, Salomonsson, Mcgroart, Lucius etc. tear it up with the Moose before thinking about them getting a chance with the Jets

Jets seemed more concerned about not triggering his contract rather then seeing if he could play... I don't think every 18 year old can do it but Heinola looked more ready in that year then he does now - so I don't see the difference to his development.

And yes Im not saying push those guys into the league no matter what - but 1 or 1.5 seasons in the A is enough to know if someone's ready for the NHL - if they are not, then we missed on those pics

In 2019, the Jets knew that Little did not have chemistry with Ehlers and Laine but they were not prepared at all when Little went down - I think it was a mistake not to commit to either Copp or Roslo and let them play through the growing pains at 2C that season... instead we bailed and essentially Eakins was a much worse option - the same way Kevin Hayes was a worse option the year before.

I would have gone with Lundell simply because he was more game ready as a C and we are in desperate need of that... Perfetti will be a top talent but again Lundell fits more with Maurice and now Bowness styles

Up to this point, the Jets have failed at developing a second line centre - and arguably Little should have been more of a third line C for much of his time here - for a draft and develop team this is very hard to ignore.

 

[DRW204]

IMO 55 has to go. I don't want his attitude to rub off on the next young crop of players. Bones "eye roll" about Shief confirmed it for me... he's a me first guy. And I used to be a huge fan of his. I would rather he scored 30 goals/ 70 or so points but played a complete game. He is selfish....again my thoughts only.

maybe bones should eye roll his own coaching on offense. last few years seems like bowness-coached teams can be found usually in the bottom-10 in goal-scoring rates (all strengths or 5v5).

scheifele was pretty much the only one scoring in the 2nd half, and carrying a bunch of plugs that were unfit as top 6ers in the 1st half. keep scheifele away from connor and the Jets rate fine in net-offense when either are on the ice.

 

[NA Hockey]

Jets seemed more concerned about not triggering his contract rather then seeing if he could play... I don't think every 18 year old can do it but Heinola looked more ready in that year then he does now - so I don't see the difference to his development.

And yes Im not saying push those guys into the league no matter what - but 1 or 1.5 seasons in the A is enough to know if someone's ready for the NHL - if they are not, then we missed on those pics

In 2019, the Jets knew that Little did not have chemistry with Ehlers and Laine but they were not prepared at all when Little went down - I think it was a mistake not to commit to either Copp or Roslo and let them play through the growing pains at 2C that season... instead we bailed and essentially Eakins was a much worse option - the same way Kevin Hayes was a worse option the year before.

I would have gone with Lundell simply because he was more game ready as a C and we are in desperate need of that... Perfetti will be a top talent but again Lundell fits more with Maurice and now Bowness styles

Up to this point, the Jets have failed at developing a second line centre - and arguably Little should have been more of a third line C for much of his time here - for a draft and develop team this is very hard to ignore.

The thing is Lundell is not a true #2 Centre on a good team. He is a 3C who is steady, but with limited offensive upside. He is a nice player to have but if he is your #2 you are going nowhere.

Perfetti may not be a C (yet or ever) but he has true 1st line elite level upside. and the potential to be one of the top producers in the NHL one day. Lundell's ceiling is 55-60 points at his peak. Perfetti will get that this year and by 26-27 should be well above a ppg player.

For me a market like Winnipeg has to swing for the fences at the high ceiling player (especially in the top 10) instead of picking "safe". Safe is death as they say, especially in Winnipeg where the only way to get superstars is to draft them.

 

[Atoyot]

The thing is Lundell is not a true #2 Centre on a good team. He is a 3C who is steady, but with limited offensive upside. He is a nice player to have but if he is your #2 you are going nowhere.

Perfetti may not be a C (yet or ever) but he has true 1st line elite level upside. and the potential to be one of the top producers in the NHL one day. Lundell's ceiling is 55-60 points at his peak. Perfetti will get that this year and by 26-27 should be well above a ppg player.

For me a market like Winnipeg has to swing for the fences at the high ceiling player (especially in the top 10) instead of picking "safe". Safe is death as they say, especially in Winnipeg where the only way to get superstars is to draft them.

The guy who put up 44 points in 65 games (56 point pace) as a 20 year old with minimal power play time and from the 3rd line has a 55-60 point ceiling?