OT: All-Purpose Expos Return Speculation Topic -- Part Deux

[salbutera]

The expos were around .500 40 games in, and then went on a tear in '94. People were willing to watch a winning team, but not an OK team, in a bad stadium. Baseball would be a tough sell in Montreal under ideal conditions, while selling any team playing in the big O in any city (taking location into account) would be a stretch.

The economics of major sports leagues require massive fan bases and/or massive subsidies. There is a lot of logic in ensuring players get half or more of the revenue, there is not much logic for that chunk to lead to players getting tens of millions per year. Take the government money out and let things shake down. No free stadia. We already bought PKP an arena for no good reason.

Montreal has the population for a baseball city, and then some, but not much else. Weather, fan interest, stadium, ownership...

Requires massive fan base only when corporate base is avg / above avg.

St Louis Cardinals for MLB are similar to Habs for NHL, solid but not overly strong corporate base like NY, Bos, Chi, LA etc but massive fanbase.

 

[salbutera]

You and I have had multiple exchanges on Expos ownership already and once again, I respectfully disagree with your position. I’ll leave it at that and not have to go back in circles eternally and never get anywhere.

All I’m going to say is that I’ve followed the team day in and day out on all of their salad days and into their decline, have read extensively throughout, have even interacted with high level employees of the Expos. You’re not going to convince me but I accept that I don’t need to convince you of anything either.

All I’ll say is good business is not based on Hail Mary’s - if there was a good business case to be made for baseball in Mtl, guaranteed investment $ would follow.

There simply isn’t a guaranteed profit model to be had..

 

[dcyhabs]

Requires massive fan base only when corporate base is avg / above avg.

St Louis Cardinals for MLB are similar to Habs for NHL, solid but not overly strong corporate base like NY, Bos, Chi, LA etc but massive fanbase.

I think you need more now, though. Salaries are increasing crazily, and everyone uses pretty much the same analytics.

 

[Laurentide]

I think the climate for a Canadian team is better now than the 90s. The nba has more of an international talent pool than before.

It would certainly have to be a case where you do it through drafting though. Canadian team will never be a hub for free agents, but the raptors have succeeded in being competitive, and even having a championship despite facing some of the same challenges that another Canadian franchise would face.

What is mind boggling to me is the number of players coming into the nba from Ontario now. I wonder how a local guy would feel about signing there one day.

I'd say it would be difficult, but not an impossible task to have a team work in Canada, but I always thought if it were to happen again, it would be Vancouver.

Toronto is the most American-wannabe city outside of the US. It is literally the only Canadian city which can sustain an NBA franchise. You can't compare it on basketball terms with any other Canadian city.

 

[Laurentide]

I mostly agree, but i truly believe that Bronfman wants baseball back here regardless of the redevelopment or not, but recognizes the sad reality that baseball in Montreal will not work over a full schedule. Can they sell out every game for 40 games? Yes, i believe so as he feels too...but to say that would be the case over 82 games...probably not, and this is the problem...hence the 2 headed monster proposal.

Practically no MLB teams sell out all 81 home games. Those weekday evening games are a tough sell no matter where you go. You don't need sell outs but you need more than 5000 people showing up to a 50000 seat stadium. And for day games and weekend games you need to have crowds consistently north of 30000 to be respectable.

 

[Laurentide]

I guess in the long run it doesn't matter if Bronfman wants to spend his money,taxpayers or gov't money because MLB shot down the idea of splitting games between the 2 cities.Would be kind of silly of him to spend 100's of millions to build a stadium with no guarantee of getting a team.Quebec and Hamilton trying to get an NHL team are just 2 examples.Also the stadium would have to be a retractable roof setup to play a full schedule with the weather here

The weather in Montreal is no better or worse than the weather in Boston, New York, Detroit, Chicago or Minneapolis, all of which have outdoor stadiums open to the elements. A retractable roof adds close to $100 million extra to the cost of a stadium and is a waste considering how little it inevitably gets used.

 

[Laurentide]

Worked out pretty well, really. There is no particular reason that governments should be massively subsidizing players and owners. The owners already have enough money, they don't need subsidies. The players were totally exploited until a few decades back, and with current agreements they should still do well even if we taxpayers stop massively subsidizing the leagues and their paychecks.

Toronto succeeded in winning a championship in spite of the disadvantages. They still have difficulty getting players to stay, but only a few NBA teams really attract players.

Way better to have owners run out of money than to have all of us putting a billion dollars into building the big O (inflated by mayoral incompetence), billions more to keep fixing it up, plus subsidies to the team over the years, only to watch the team move so some American art dealer and Brochu could make loads of money they did nothing to earn without putting up any of their own cash.

I'm certainly not advocating for the use of public money to finance privately owned teams and venues but Arthur Griffiths found out the hard way that he was a mere millionaire trying to exist in a world that had been taken over by multi-billionaires. But he was a one man army, having inherited the team from his late father. But Frank Griffiths didn't leave his son nearly the fortune that Charles Bronfman is going to leave Stephen. The elder Bronfman is worth about $2.5 billion. And there are other well-heeled Quebec-based billionaires who, along with Bronfman, could easily afford both the start-up costs and inevitable losses.

 

[Laurentide]

Back in the 90s the Expos were way ahead the curve especially under Duquette and Malone in terms of being big students of sabermetrics guru Bill James and used that analytics approach in targeting young players when every other team i the league didn’t, by the early 2000s 90% of MLB teams had caught up - Mtl simply has no chance to compete w NYY, Sox, even STL like they once did because all of them not only have $, they also use analytics to the fullest and staff w the best available

It was also never shortsighted ownership, they knew Mtl simply wasn’t a baseball market that could constantly support a $75M+ payroll, and they were right.

Expos we’re ultra competitive from 92-94, and even 94 season they didn’t start drawing till late June….that’s completely unacceptable

The Rays seem to have no trouble being competitive despite having a payroll which is a fraction of the Yankees and Red Sox. Kansas City went to a couple of World Series in recent years and they are far from a big market club. Ditto for Milwaukee.

 

[Laurentide]

The expos were around .500 40 games in, and then went on a tear in '94. People were willing to watch a winning team, but not an OK team, in a bad stadium. Baseball would be a tough sell in Montreal under ideal conditions, while selling any team playing in the big O in any city (taking location into account) would be a stretch.

The economics of major sports leagues require massive fan bases and/or massive subsidies. There is a lot of logic in ensuring players get half or more of the revenue, there is not much logic for that chunk to lead to players getting tens of millions per year. Take the government money out and let things shake down. No free stadia. We already bought PKP an arena for no good reason.

Montreal has the population for a baseball city, and then some, but not much else. Weather, fan interest, stadium, ownership...

The Jays don't exactly pack em into the Skydome for 81 games a season. They're doing fine. No MLB team sells out 81 games except in rare circumstances, like when Jacobs Field in Cleveland first opened. Half full or even less than half full stadiums, especially for weeknight games, is the norm and always has been.

 

[dcyhabs]

The Jays don't exactly pack em into the Skydome for 81 games a season. They're doing fine. No MLB team sells out 81 games except in rare circumstances, like when Jacobs Field in Cleveland first opened. Half full or even less than half full stadiums, especially for weeknight games, is the norm and always has been.

It takes a pretty massive fan base to get the 15-20K people on weeknights and 40-60K on weekends, for 81 games. I don't expect a new 'spos team with a small stadium to have an easy time, especially when it's cold out. A new downtown stadium might help, but I don't see it happening without massive government spending, and I don't think that's a good move considering we just paid off the old one.

 

[salbutera]

The Jays don't exactly pack em into the Skydome for 81 games a season. They're doing fine. No MLB team sells out 81 games except in rare circumstances, like when Jacobs Field in Cleveland first opened. Half full or even less than half full stadiums, especially for weeknight games, is the norm and always has been.

But you have to be able to avg 25K (2M fans per season) even during the worst times…. that would be a very good season in Mtl, and why baseball simply will never work even with a new ballpark.

Mtl demographic as it stands today just doesn’t have a link to the game of baseball - very different demographic from 40-years ago…

 

[HuGort]

Expos never be back. All this is is like the girl in high school who was just leading you on.

 

[tazsub3]

But you have to be able to avg 25K (2M fans per season) even during the worst times…. that would be a very good season in Mtl, and why baseball simply will never work even with a new ballpark.

Mtl demographic as it stands today just doesn’t have a link to the game of baseball - very different demographic from 40-years ago…

Baseball is no longer about attendance. It is about viewership, other forms of income then attendance.

 

[Runner77]

Practically no MLB teams sell out all 81 home games. Those weekday evening games are a tough sell no matter where you go. You don't need sell outs but you need more than 5000 people showing up to a 50000 seat stadium. And for day games and weekend games you need to have crowds consistently north of 30000 to be respectable.

I think those numbers have changed since the teams envisaging new stadiums are looking at roughly 35,000 cookie cutter venues. The last Expos model stadium that had been designed was in that range.

 

[Runner77]

Expos never be back. All this is is like the girl in high school who was just leading you on.

Washington waited 33 years and lost it twice before. You never know.

 

[LeHab]

But you have to be able to avg 25K (2M fans per season) even during the worst times…. that would be a very good season in Mtl, and why baseball simply will never work even with a new ballpark.

Mtl demographic as it stands today just doesn’t have a link to the game of baseball - very different demographic from 40-years ago…

There is not even an AAA or AA affiliate to keep people somehow connected to baseball. Could be a way to prove interest in the game ....if there is any.

 

[Laurentide]

I think those numbers have changed since the teams envisaging new stadiums are looking at roughly 35,000 cookie cutter venues. The last Expos model stadium that had been designed was in that range.

Yep, smaller capacity leads to increased demand sooner as the stadium fills up. Seattle built Safeco Field in the late 90's with a capacity of close to 50K. Now if you see games from there you notice that the entire upper deck behind the right field fence is purposely left vacant. They just don't put those tickets up for sale unless it's some special occasion. Otherwise those entire sections are left empty.

The new model is more like PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Capacity under 40K, open air, simple but elegant. That's the size venue that could work in Montreal. Maybe design the park in such a way that if they went to the post-season you could erect some temporary bleachers behing the outfield to increase capacity or something. But for regular season games a stadium with 35K seats is plenty. And if you're on the fence about going to a game you have to factor that into your decision. If I wait too long to decide I might not get a ticket. That was never an issue at the Big O. It's so big it couldn't sell out for Game 7 of the World Series. There's always at least a few seats that don't get filled, even when it's techically "full".

 

[HuGort]

Expos never did have a decent park to play in. Was a factor why baseball failed in Montreal

 

[salbutera]

Expos never did have a decent park to play in. Was a factor why baseball failed in Montreal

Not enough hardcore baseball fans post Anglo exodus in early 80s was the real factor & immigration focus on La francophonie (North Africa, Lebanon, Haiti etc.) starting in mid/late 80s through 90s simply couldn’t compensate for that key population loss, due to lack of baseball culture from their homeland.

Bottom line - Mtl isn’t a pro sports market… it’s a Habs only city

 

[HuGort]

Not enough hardcore baseball fans post Anglo exodus in early 80s was the real factor & immigration focus on La francophonie (North Africa, Lebanon, Haiti etc.) starting in mid/late 80s through 90s simply couldn’t compensate for that key population loss, due to lack of baseball culture from their homeland.

Bottom line - Mtl isn’t a pro sports market… it’s a Habs only city

That and way team was handled at the end but no stadium wasn't a help. Big O sucked and Jarry Park was crude.

 

[George Lebay]

Soccer, replacing baseball in Quebec since 1985

 

[JianYang]

Not enough hardcore baseball fans post Anglo exodus in early 80s was the real factor & immigration focus on La francophonie (North Africa, Lebanon, Haiti etc.) starting in mid/late 80s through 90s simply couldn’t compensate for that key population loss, due to lack of baseball culture from their homeland.

Bottom line - Mtl isn’t a pro sports market… it’s a Habs only city

Baseball is fading in general. I live on the west coast, and the decline in the number of baseball diamonds to play on is noticeable from when I was a kid.

I even see some baseball fields replaced by cricket fields.

 

[Michelangelo]

Soccer, replacing baseball in Quebec since 1985

Baseball is a dead sport

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Soccer, replacing baseball in Quebec since 1985

The expos were awful in the last years
Impact have been awful for years now .. nvm ''FC Montreal''

Teams that never wins will get less spectators , which is normal.
Even the bell center is half empty

 

[HuGort]

Baseball is fading in general. I live on the west coast, and the decline in the number of baseball diamonds to play on is noticeable from when I was a kid.

I even see some baseball fields replaced by cricket fields.

Basketball and football seem to have passed baseball in popularity. When I was a kid baseball was far and away biggest sport.

It seems more boring than it use to be