Alexander Burmistrov "will almost certainly return to NHL"

[Mud Turtle]

This has probably already been discussed, but what were Burmistrov's Corsi numbers like while he was with the Jets/Thrashers, and how did that compare to the rest of the team?

 

[allan5oh]

He had good advanced stats, not quite Wellwood, but there's a reason the guys at AIH were huge fans.

 

[sully1410]

This has probably already been discussed, but what were Burmistrov's Corsi numbers like while he was with the Jets/Thrashers, and how did that compare to the rest of the team?

His possession stats were actually SO good that he would slant it towards whoever was on his line, no matter who it was.

 

[garret9]

This has probably already been discussed, but what were Burmistrov's Corsi numbers like while he was with the Jets/Thrashers, and how did that compare to the rest of the team?

Cole notes:

Sixth best Corsi%
* behind Perreault, Wellwood, Lowry (yes), Ladd, and Frolik

Fourth best relative Corsi% (Corsi on ice - Corsi on bench)
* behind Wellwood, Ladd, and Perreault

Eighth best scoring chance% (Corsi adjusted for shot location, rebounds/nonrebounds, and rush/sustained pressure shots)
* behind Perreault, Lowry, Wellwood, Ladd, Frolik, Wheeler, and Little

Fifth best relScoringChance% (scoring chance on ice - scoring chance on bench)
* behind Perreault, Wellwood, Ladd, and Wheeler

I have adjusted these numbers for score, venue bias, and home/away.

This is out of the 22 forwards the Jets have had play 400 or more minutes.

The reason why Burmistrov ranks higher in the relative numbers is because the Jets are an overall better team currently. Burmistrov's 52.8% Corsi percentage would likely be higher if he was playing on the current team, but his +2.9% relCorsi would likely be lower.

Burmistrov had an interesting ability in that every single Jet had better Corsi% with Burmistrov than without.

It should also be noted that Burmistrov's shot metrics were positive more so from elite shot repression, as his impact on shot creation was very middling.

 

[ps241]

Cole notes:

Sixth best Corsi%
* behind Perreault, Wellwood, Lowry (yes), Ladd, and Frolik

Fourth best relative Corsi% (Corsi on ice - Corsi on bench)
* behind Wellwood, Ladd, and Perreault

Eighth best scoring chance% (Corsi adjusted for shot location, rebounds/nonrebounds, and rush/sustained pressure shots)
* behind Perreault, Lowry, Wellwood, Ladd, Frolik, Wheeler, and Little

Fifth best relScoringChance% (scoring chance on ice - scoring chance on bench)
* behind Perreault, Wellwood, Ladd, and Wheeler

I have adjusted these numbers for score, venue bias, and home/away.

This is out of the 22 forwards the Jets have had play 400 or more minutes.

The reason why Burmistrov ranks higher in the relative numbers is because the Jets are an overall better team currently. Burmistrov's 52.8% Corsi percentage would likely be higher if he was playing on the current team, but his +2.9% relCorsi would likely be lower.

Burmistrov had an interesting ability in that every single Jet had better Corsi% with Burmistrov than without.

It should also be noted that Burmistrov's shot metrics were positive more so from elite shot repression, as his impact on shot creation was very middling.

Really on Lowry?

Our version of Sean Couturier but probably allot more sheltered?

 

[Stej]

They closed the Burmi value thread on the trade board because it had been bumped. Not sure why that matters considering the trade deadline is approaching and there is a very realistic chance that his rights are on the table. I PM'd the mod that closed the thread to ask about it.

 

[KingBogo]

They closed the Burmi value thread on the trade board because it had been bumped. Not sure why that matters considering the trade deadline is approaching and there is a very realistic chance that his rights are on the table. I PM'd the mod that closed the thread to ask about it.

I don't think that stops anyone from starting a new one if they want.

 

[Stej]

I don't think that stops anyone from starting a new one if they want.

I'm stubborn.

Seems stupid to lock a "value of Burmi" thread, then open a "value of Burmi" thread.

 

[KingBogo]

I'm stubborn.

Seems stupid to lock a "value of Burmi" thread, then open a "value of Burmi" thread.

How many value of Buff or value of Kane threads do you think there have been...my guess is dozens.

 

[garret9]

Really on Lowry?

Our version of Sean Couturier but probably allot more sheltered?

Have to account for team as well. Lowry and Perreault play on the best Jets team in terms of possession. Perreault we have history on other teams showing he is indeed elite and deserving of those numbers. Lowry we don't. So to better judge Lowry, we look at two other things.

We look at his relCorsi, which is +0.3%. In other words, the Jets are better with him on the ice than on the bench. Shows he's still a decent possession player (better than Scheifele, Jokinen, Setoguchi, and all of the Jets bottom 6 guys except Tangradi), but not of the echelon like Perreault, Ladd, Wellwood, Burmi.

The second thing we look at is WOWYs. Lowry has played a lot with Perreault. Lowry is a 54% Corsi player with Perreault, but has been 50% without him. So some of that high ranking in the raw lists is likely his time with Perreault.

That's nothing against Lowry. He's the type of guy that Jets could use more of in the bottom six. He's an okay third line player on a playoff team and a fourth line player on a contending team. His scoring rates leave a lot to be desired but the whole Jets are not posting up huge numbers anyways.

Now to the Couturier comment: Couturier arguably plays toughest minutes in the league for forwards. TBH though, I think that the PHI fans are right that Couturier is an underrated player... but I think they overrate him still.

This is all a bit off topic though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Based on the fact that he took his ball & went home for 2 years now.

It seems to be a big mistake drafting Russians.

The statement was that he seems to 'prefer' the KHL. He chose a lot more money. He chose 'home'. He chose to fulfill a previously stated dream. The money in the KHL has all but dried up. He is old enough to have outgrown his homesickness. That dream has been fulfilled. He has stated another dream was NHL success which has not been fulfilled. His agent has stated he wants to return to the NHL. What in that equates to a 'preference' for the KHL?

 

[allan5oh]

My opinion is Burmi will be traded for help before this deadline or not at all.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

The statement was that he seems to 'prefer' the KHL. He chose a lot more money. He chose 'home'. He chose to fulfill a previously stated dream. The money in the KHL has all but dried up. He is old enough to have outgrown his homesickness. That dream has been fulfilled. He has stated another dream was NHL success which has not been fulfilled. His agent has stated he wants to return to the NHL. What in that equates to a 'preference' for the KHL?

I don't recall Burmi saying he preferred the KHL. Just the opposite actually. Burmi during his draft year referred to the KHL as being an "old mans league" & had no plans to play there until his NHL days were over.

Sadly this didn't happen, but his open rebellion against Noel was not a team building exercise & I think it benefited everyone that he pursued his development elsewhere.

Eagerly awaiting his return. Any combination of Burmi playing with Kane, Perrault & Frolik is going to be one of the strongest possession / forechecking lines in the NHL.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't recall Burmi saying he preferred the KHL. Just the opposite actually. Burmi during his draft year referred to the KHL as being an "old mans league" & had no plans to play there until his NHL days were over.

Sadly this didn't happen, but his open rebellion against Noel was not a team building exercise & I think it benefited everyone that he pursued his development elsewhere.

Eagerly awaiting his return. Any combination of Burmi playing with Kane, Perrault & Frolik is going to be one of the strongest possession / forechecking lines in the NHL.

One way or another.

 

[KingBogo]

My opinion is Burmi will be traded for help before this deadline or not at all.

He would likely get you something helpful for a stretch run from a seller. But I don't know if that would be getting the most value. As the draft approaches he will either have signed with the Jets or have made his intentions clear he intends/wants to return to the NHL. Now you have a young middle 6 forward who is still an RFA. Which would be much more valuable then then the theoretical at the TD.

If Burmi wants to return to the NHL but lets Chevy know he would prefer another team (as long as he doesn't broadcast it) I can see him being part of a bigger deal during the run up to the draft and free agency.

 

[sully1410]

He would likely get you something helpful for a stretch run from a seller. But I don't know if that would be getting the most value. As the draft approaches he will either have signed with the Jets or have made his intentions clear he intends/wants to return to the NHL. Now you have a young middle 6 forward who is still an RFA. Which would be much more valuable then then the theoretical at the TD.

If Burmi wants to return to the NHL but lets Chevy know he would prefer another team (as long as he doesn't broadcast it) I can see him being part of a bigger deal during the run up to the draft and free agency.

Burmi is absolutely useless as a trade chip for this deadline. No one is going to give up valuable assets for the guy when he can't help them come playoffs.

 

[Bob E]

Burmi is absolutely useless as a trade chip for this deadline. No one is going to give up valuable assets for the guy when he can't help them come playoffs.

He would be valuable to a seller at the TD, and be worth more than a mid-round pick, IMO. A seller isn't looking at improvement this year, but for next season, obviously. So, he's exactly the piece that is added with picks, at the deadline, for an established player (read: a pending UFA, or over-priced vet not earning his salary, or quality player from a cap-stretched non-playoff team).

The fact that Burmi isn't signed, and his contract demands aren't known, hurts his value for a decent return, IMO.

 

[garret9]

So I ran some numbers with Corsi and Scoring Chances (Corsi adjusted for shot location, rebounds, and rush/sustained-pressure shots)...

According to blind numbers (no eye-test, no Garret's opinion/wants) the best lines (using a 1-2-3 system, not rolling equal TOI) would be (for guys rights owned next season and plus NHL experience and ignoring Petan, Ehlers, etc):

Ladd-Little-Wheeler
Kane-Perreault-Burmistrov
Lowry-Scheifele-Frolik
Thor--Peluso

 

[Hunter368]

Interesting

 

[bazaaa*]

Burmi is absolutely useless as a trade chip for this deadline. No one is going to give up valuable assets for the guy when he can't help them come playoffs.

Exaxctly. We sure like to overvalue our players here.

 

[StronGeer]

Exaxctly. We sure like to overvalue our players here.

Right, because no one EVER used a sweetener to get a better return on a trade.

 

[bazaaa*]

Right, because no one EVER used a sweetener to get a better return on a trade.

What's the point of this post? He has no value. Add in a random AHL player.

 

[StronGeer]

What's the point of this post? He has no value. Add in a random AHL player.

The post you quoted implied that no one would want Burmi at the deadline since he's no use in the 2015 playoffs. You agreed. I was replying that he could be used as a sweetener:

1) in a deal where we give up a roster player to improve the prospects/pick coming back
2) in a deal where we give up futures to get a better roster player back for our playoff push

He certainly has more value to an NHL team than 1 4th/5th/6th/7th round pick or a career AHLer. The likelyhood of one of those ever contributing in the NHL again is lower than his.

Lose the 'tude, dude.

 

[Shakey Rustie]

He would be valuable to a seller at the TD, and be worth more than a mid-round pick, IMO. A seller isn't looking at improvement this year, but for next season, obviously. So, he's exactly the piece that is added with picks, at the deadline, for an established player (read: a pending UFA, or over-priced vet not earning his salary, or quality player from a cap-stretched non-playoff team).

The fact that Burmi isn't signed, and his contract demands aren't known, hurts his value for a decent return, IMO.

The other option would hurt the value for a decent return a lot more, that being if Burmi was signed by the Jets but was in the KHL regardless.

 

[garret9]

The other option would hurt the value for a decent return a lot more, that being if Burmi was signed by the Jets but was in the KHL regardless.

He couldn't be signed and play in KHL unless loaned by the NHL.