Player Discussion Alex Newhook

[Belial]

Feels like you’re describing Lehkonen.

He's more skilled than Lehkonen.

 

[BLONG7]

I disagreed with the Dach trade from Chicago's standpoint. I don't know why they felt the need to go full scorched earth with he and Debrincat, yet kept Kane and Toews.

But I can at least understand why they would make trades for futures. They're rebuilding.
Colorado is trying to win. Why are they dumping young, controlled, NHL players for picks? That makes little sense unless they just want to move on for hockey reasons.

There top 6 is a little more talented, and crowded.
There was no way he was jumping up into that group.
This kid is a good player, and with more opportunity given to him, I think we will be very happy with him....

 

[le_sean]

I'm not sure a "we're shit at this, so we may as well trade our picks" is the best way to express confidence in the management.

Well we traded picks that have about a 20-30% chance of even becoming an NHLer for an actual young NHLer with nice upside. People are reacting as if this is the Drouin trade again when in reality these picks don’t have much value.

 

[Belial]

I disagreed with the Dach trade from Chicago's standpoint. I don't know why they felt the need to go full scorched earth with he and Debrincat, yet kept Kane and Toews.

But I can at least understand why they would make trades for futures. They're rebuilding.
Colorado is trying to win. Why are they dumping young, controlled, NHL players for picks? That makes little sense unless they just want to move on for hockey reasons.

They didn't have the cap space to keep Newhook and add other players.

They basically sacrificed potential for win now guys like Johansen and Colton.

 

[Metallo]

He has elite speed and has a very strong lower body....these are facts.

I'm an Avs fan, I watched him almost every game for the last two years.

I'm sorry to tell you that he does not have that separation, elite speed. Furthermore his acceleration and edgework is not good enough to make him shifty.

He might have lower body strength, I don't know because he loses 1vs1 battles all the time. It's a big knock on him. He's also soft and doesn't get to the dirty areas. He's not good enough defensively to be a center.

What he is is a good kid with decent skill and speed.

 

[le_sean]

I disagreed with the Dach trade from Chicago's standpoint. I don't know why they felt the need to go full scorched earth with he and Debrincat, yet kept Kane and Toews.

But I can at least understand why they would make trades for futures. They're rebuilding.
Colorado is trying to win. Why are they dumping young, controlled, NHL players for picks? That makes little sense unless they just want to move on for hockey reasons.

Again, I find it interesting that you keep going back to Dach. You say Newhook didn’t grab an opportunity. Well Dach grabbed an opportunity in Chicago since there was zero competition and he was actually played with 1st liners yet still didn’t produce. In fact, he produced less than Newhook despite playing 4 more minutes a game.

Sometimes teams just don’t know how to push the right buttons for players. Or sometimes they just aren’t ready at the age of 21, to take that next step. Doesn’t mean they are poor players.

 

[Playmaker09]

Again, I find it interesting that you keep going back to Dach. You say Newhook didn’t grab an opportunity. Well Dach grabbed an opportunity in Chicago since there was zero competition and he was actually played with 1st liners yet still didn’t produce. In fact, he produced less than Newhook despite playing 4 more minutes a game.

Sometimes teams just don’t know how to push the right buttons for players. Or sometimes they just aren’t ready at the age of 21, to take that next step. Doesn’t mean they are poor players.

Dach was younger, bigger, more skilled, has a legit high-end tool (vision), and has a two way game.

They’re not alike at all. Dach has a high floor with upside, he can play on any line, in all situations. He’s a complete player.

Bigger players often take a little longer to develop, and you can be patient with Dach because you know that even if the production is not there yet, he’s still contributing defensively, still strong on the boards, can cycle and hold on to the puck and bring elements that will help other skilled players. The ideal low-risk high-reward project to buy into.

 

[Archijerej]

View attachment 727626
Well we traded picks that have about a 20-30% chance of even becoming an NHLer for an actual young NHLer with nice upside. People are reacting as if this is the Drouin trade again when in reality these picks don’t have much value.

I understand that. That's why I don't agonize over picks when we use them as trade currency. I'm just trying to understand the logic of targeting this type of player. Because as a trade currency two late 1st picks (or early 2nds if you prefer) have not insignificant value. You can even get an important piece of a cup winning team at that price (yes, it's a reference to Lars Eller).

So, while Dach trade was easy to understand (a potential top 6 center, which are usually available only in PlayStation) I wonder what's their projection for Newhook. A 50-point winger, unless he's also a strong two way player, is not a particularly rare commodity.

 

[Belial]

Dach was younger, bigger, more skilled, has a legit high-end tool (vision), and has a two way game.

They’re not alike at all. Dach has a high floor with upside, he can play on any line, in all situations. He’s a complete player.

Bigger players often take a little longer to develop, and you can be patient with Dach because you know that even if the production is not there yet, he’s still contributing defensively, still strong on the boards, can cycle and hold on to the puck and bring elements that will help other skilled players. The ideal low-risk high-reward project to buy into.

Newhook's already had 2 seasons of 30 points in the NHL at 22 years of age. Seems like a pretty decent floor if you want to talk about floors...

 

[Playmaker09]

Newhook's already had 2 seasons of 30 points in the NHL at 22 years of age. Seems like a pretty decent floor if you want to talk about floors...

I’m not talking about a floor of merely playing and surviving in the NHL. I’m talking about a floor of contributing to winning hockey. He’s been demoted in the playoffs twice in a row. First to to stands, and this year to the 4th line.

If he doesn’t take a big step forward, he’s just another Alex Kerfoot. The type of player who doesn’t get you over the hump when it matters. That’s not a high floor.

A 6’3 two way C/W like Dach would have been a contributor on any playoff team in the league, even a year ago. You literally can’t have too many players like that on your roster.

 

[Belial]

I’m not talking about a floor of merely playing and surviving in the NHL. I’m talking about a floor of contributing to winning hockey. He’s been demoted in the playoffs twice in a row. First to to stands, and this year to the 4th line.

If he doesn’t take a big step forward, he’s just another Alex Kerfoot. The type of player who doesn’t get you over the hump when it matters. That’s not a high floor.

A 6’3 two way C/W like Dach would have been a contributor on any playoff team in the league, even a year ago. You literally can’t have too many players like that on your roster.

Guys like Dach are almost never available, we pounced on a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity almost... As the Blackhawks decided to go full scorched earth just to have a chance at Bedard. If Bedard was not out there, I doubt they move Dach.

The price paid for Newhook is not comparable IMO, it's basically two second-rounders.

And it's not like we've had a ton of hits with those picks either...

Newhook is a guaranteed NHLer.

 

[SOLR]

I disagreed with the Dach trade from Chicago's standpoint. I don't know why they felt the need to go full scorched earth with he and Debrincat, yet kept Kane and Toews.

But I can at least understand why they would make trades for futures. They're rebuilding.
Colorado is trying to win. Why are they dumping young, controlled, NHL players for picks? That makes little sense unless they just want to move on for hockey reasons.

They didn't "keep" Kane and Toews- they were nearly untradable with their salaries. Kane still had a bit of value at the deadline, and they managed to send him packing, but Toews found no taker, and he'll prob get a league minimum offer.

They didn't think Dach was developing into what they needed, and he was 3 years older than their rebuild's first generation; they picked Nazar to replace him - I can't say I don't understand that point of view. Dach can turn in an important player, but he's risky in terms of putting it together and physically with his numerous injuries. Nazar is a fresh player that will have about the same age as Bedard, just like what we are doing with a lot of players around Suzuki's age.

 

[26Mats]

Everyone talks about Dach taking it to the next level. That has not happened yet. 38 points is not the next level.
What Dach did do was demonstrate he can get to the next level. Now he has to put it all together.

38 points in 58 games is scoring at a pace of 54 points over 82 games.

He had never done that in his career and that's another level. If he regresses from that level, he regresses from that level. If he maintains it, he maintains it. If he takes it to yet another level, so be it. But that's his current level.

 

[Adam Michaels]

I disagreed with the Dach trade from Chicago's standpoint. I don't know why they felt the need to go full scorched earth with he and Debrincat, yet kept Kane and Toews.

But I can at least understand why they would make trades for futures. They're rebuilding.
Colorado is trying to win. Why are they dumping young, controlled, NHL players for picks? That makes little sense unless they just want to move on for hockey reasons.

The flipped one of the picks for Ross Colton in a deal with Tampa. That is why they wanted picks, they immediately turned and flipped one in a trade. It was currency for them.

And don't be surprised if at some point they trade Gulyayev (who they selected with the 31st pick) for immediate help, as well.

 

[le_sean]

Dach was younger, bigger, more skilled, has a legit high-end tool (vision), and has a two way game.

They’re not alike at all. Dach has a high floor with upside, he can play on any line, in all situations. He’s a complete player.

Bigger players often take a little longer to develop, and you can be patient with Dach because you know that even if the production is not there yet, he’s still contributing defensively, still strong on the boards, can cycle and hold on to the puck and bring elements that will help other skilled players. The ideal low-risk high-reward project to buy into

Again, Newhook proved more than Dach at the same age with less opportunity and icetime and no history of injuries. There’s zero risk. At worst we traded two 2nd rounders for a young 30 point player. That’s if he doesn’t take any additional steps forward which is highly highly unlikely.

 

[Belial]

The flipped one of the picks for Ross Colton in a deal with Tampa. That is why they wanted picks, they immediately turned and flipped one in a trade. It was currency for them.

And don't be surprised if at some point they trade Gulyayev (who they selected with the 31st pick) for immediate help, as well.

That's not to mention that they kinda replaced Newhook with Johansen.

Trading him gave them 3+M$ of cap space.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

are we expecting a Dach like contract ?

 

[Rapala]

38 points in 58 games is scoring at a pace of 54 points over 82 games.

He had never done that in his career and that's another level. If he regresses from that level, he regresses from that level. If he maintains it, he maintains it. If he takes it to yet another level, so be it. But that's his current level.

Okay so it's another level. But it's a nowhere level. I want my 3C to have better production than that.

 

[le_sean]

Everyone talks about Dach taking it to the next level. That has not happened yet. 38 points is not the next level.
What Dach did do was demonstrate he can get to the next level. Now he has to put it all together.

Well that’s where the advanced stats and eye test tell a different story. He’s basically a top defensive player in advanced stats and elite at zone entries. The eye test says he’s finally using his size positively and creating chances by overpowering.

And yeah, 38 points in 58 games is 54 points over 82 games. That’s a big step from 26 points in 70 games.

 

[Belial]

are we expecting a Dach like contract ?

Probably less cash Imo as Dach was a higher pick.

Something around 3M$ would be my guess.

 

[Archijerej]

Again, Newhook proved more than Dach at the same age with less opportunity and icetime and no history of injuries. There’s zero risk. At worst we traded two 2nd rounders for a young 30 point player. That’s if he doesn’t take any additional steps forward which is highly highly unlikely.

The trade is not in any way crippling and the risk level seems moderate enough to deserve less hand-wringing than has been demonstrated so far. That said, it is still an interesting case study from the efficiency point of view. Efficiency as such will be pretty big for us, because if you're not rebuilding around a Bedard, or even an Eichel or a Pietrangelo, you are likely allowed fewer mistakes and you have to be more judicious with your assets compared to some other teams.

 

[Rapala]

Well that’s where the advanced stats and eye test tell a different story. He’s basically a top defensive player in advanced stats and elite at zone entries. The eye test says he’s finally using his size positively and creating chances by overpowering.

And yeah, 38 points in 58 games is 54 points over 82 games. That’s a big step from 26 points in 70 games.

My argument has nothing to do with the caliber of play he's shown us. The totality of what we need in that position is. So while people are calling it another level I'm calling it for what it is. Not nearly good enough for a 2C he hasn't even reached the first floor yet.

 

[26Mats]

Okay so it's another level. But it's a nowhere level. I want my 3C to have better production than that.

38 points in 58 games is great production for a 3c. I'm hoping he can get to an even higher level of production though...

Dach and Cole Caufield have arrived. The main thing we have to hope for is that they can stay healthy.

 

[le_sean]

The trade is not in any way crippling and the risk level seems moderate enough to deserve less hand-wringing than has been demonstrated so far. That said, it is still an interesting case study from the efficiency point of view. Efficiency as such will be pretty big for us, because if you're not rebuilding around a Bedard, or even an Eichel or a Pietrangelo, you are likely allowed fewer mistakes and you have to be more judicious with your assets compared to some other teams.

It’ll be interesting to see if Marty really is a guru for offensive talent. We know Newhook will have his opportunities and that we can live with mistakes, unlike the Avs.

 

[Rapala]

38 points in 58 games is great production for a 3c. I'm hoping he can get to an even higher level of production though...

Dach and Cole Caufield have arrived. The main thing we have to hope for is that they can stay healthy.

I'm fairly certain roughly 17 of those points were as a winger not a center. We need Kirby Dach to play a minimum of 70 games consistently to reach the level we expect him to be at to help the team to the post season. We could probably get away with him playing less if we had more depth and quality at the forward position but that is likely a couple of years out yet.