Player Discussion Alex Newhook

[Redux91]

Okay so it's another level. But it's a nowhere level. I want my 3C to have better production than that.

Ahh come on dude, you're asking WAY too much out of your 3C lol
Dach was producing easy 2C numbers last year
Check the production from Vegas 3C and Fla 3C, you'd be surprised

 

[26Mats]

I'm fairly certain roughly 17 of those points were as a winger not a center. We need Kirby Dach to play a minimum of 70 games consistently to reach the level we expect him to be at to help the team to the post season. We could probably get away with him playing less if we had more depth and quality at the forward position but that is likely a couple of years out yet.

I would say it's a fair debate whether Dach has arrived as a center. He certainly played at a level at the end of the season he's never played at, including the beginning of the season, before he found his game playing on the wing with Suzuki and Caufiled.

But he looked damn good at C. So I'm very optimistic about the future. And to me he's certainly reached the level of a top 6 forward (whether wing or C).

 

[ZUKI]

Since we also took KK and Galchenyuk with the 3rd overall pick, next time we get one we should just trade it for a solid 3rd liner. We'd be better off!

By your logic we might as well trade every pick that we own outside of the top 20. Just never make another pick again. If they're so unlikely to pan out why use them? Flip them all for players.

Small middle six forwards hold no value across the league. Not in trades, not in FA. You can do all the mental gymnastics you want to justify it, but the success of this trade solely hinges on Hughes/St Louis being the misfit whisperers and Newhook breaking out into a legitimate core player.

At that rank of selections the % of chances to draft a player that will one day play top 6 is absolutely low as around 2%

The % that Newhook play one day top 6 is by far better and if he doesn’t, he will at least play on the 3rd line

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I disagreed with the Dach trade from Chicago's standpoint. I don't know why they felt the need to go full scorched earth with he and Debrincat, yet kept Kane and Toews.

But I can at least understand why they would make trades for futures. They're rebuilding.
Colorado is trying to win. Why are they dumping young, controlled, NHL players for picks? That makes little sense unless they just want to move on for hockey reasons.

A rebuilding team trading one of their young players makes far less sense than a team in their Cup window doing so.

 

[The Great Weal]

With what frequency?

The players I mentioned are available every year, sometimes several of them, and there isn't usually much competition or a bidding war to sign them because not many teams can accommodate another small forward in their top 6. The Habs have had reasonable success signing Cammalleri, Gionta, Radulov, Toffoli, etc.

Players like Pietrangelo, Panarin, Chara choose where they want to go. And history tells us that's not Montreal.

Secondly, what value does his age hold when we shouldn't ever have a problem replacing the first class of UFA's above. There's no point developing players who you can easily get in their primes and continually replace with other players also in their primes 4 years down the road.

The NHL will never be short on small, complementary top 6 wingers in their primes that are available.
As we've seen many times before, any time a team is in a cap crunch, or an expansion draft is looming, they are the first players on the chopping block and can be had for a song.

If he's a 70 point player on the other hand, that's something where there's value in having him on board early and locked in for as long as possible, because he's not easy to replace.

Dude we paid 2 early 2nds for this player. I think the price was a bit steep but the odds that those early 2nds becoming NHLers let alone someone as good as Newhook is low. By your logic we should have forfeited the picks anyways since those picks have a 0.1% chance of becoming a Pietrangelo/Panarin and anything below that is insignificant since apparently it's super easy to add 55-60 point players.

That is not what I would consider reasonable success at all. Cammalleri was in 2009-2010. Brian Gionta the same. Radulov was a 1 year deal and he was not proven at the time of the signing. Toffoli is the only one in the past decade with term like I said and he just got traded for a middle 6 player which according to you is a waste anyways since those players can be signed all the time.

What value does his age hold? You can get a decade+ worth of hockey out of a good player (assuming relatively healthy) as opposed to someone in their 30s.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I read a rumor this past weekend that Newhook's contract is close to being done. What are the guesses?

I'll say 4x $3M or 2x $2.5M.

 

[Goldthorpe]

It's simple, really: Hughes traded (some) potential for (some) certainty.

Two picks have more potential - it's possible they will amount for more value overall - but the variance is also much wider. Newhook has more certainty - he's already a NHLer at 22, something that the two picks may never even achieve (or again, completely blow pass).

People are going to then evaluate the trade depending on their belief of how much remaining potential Newhook has vs what are the odds of the picks being worth anything. Colorado piked Mikhail Gulyayev, an undersized offensive D who was a ppg in the MHL, Tampa chose Ethan Gauthier, a ppg forward in the Q. How confident can one be that any of these player will be NHLer at 22? They may, but then again, nobody would be surprised if none of them made it. It's not a trick question, it's just a way to visualize the actual tradeoff involved.

***

The more I see Hugues build his team, the more I feel he considers picks to have a lower value than his peers, and that may explain his trading behavior at least in part. We often tend to see and evaluate picks, prospects and players kind of separately, but I sense that Hughes see them as a continuum. For him, the difference between Newhook and a mid first round pick is just 4 years of development. A D+4 prospect isn't a fixed asset, he's just another player on its path of pro development, 4 years in advance of a similar player starting it.

I disagree that he could have achieve the same thing by signing some UFA. UFAs cost more, and their best years are generally pass them. They don't have potential anymore. Newhook hasn't reach his peak years yet.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

A rebuilding team trading one of their young players makes far less sense than a team in their Cup window doing so.

Exactly. No need to move young players until they have more of an idea what their ceiling might be.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's simple, really: Hughes traded (some) potential for (some) certainty.

Two picks have more potential - it's possible they will amount for more value overall - but the variance is also much wider. Newhook has more certainty - he's already a NHLer at 22, something that the two picks may never even achieve (or again, completely blow pass).

People are going to then evaluate the trade depending on their belief of how much remaining potential Newhook has vs what are the odds of the picks being worth anything. Colorado piked Mikhail Gulyayev, an undersized offensive D who was a ppg in the MHL, Tampa chose Ethan Gauthier, a ppg forward in the Q. How confident can one be that any of these player will be NHLer at 22? They may, but then again, nobody would be surprised if none of them made it. It's not a trick question, it's just a way to visualize the actual tradeoff involved.

***

The more I see Hugues build his team, the more I feel he considers picks to have a lower value than his peers, and that may explain his trading behavior at least in part. We often tend to see and evaluate picks, prospects and players kind of separately, but I sense that Hughes see them as a continuum. For him, the difference between Newhook and a mid first round pick is just 4 years of development. A D+4 prospect isn't a fixed asset, he's just another player on its path of pro development, 4 years in advance of a similar player starting it.

I disagree that he could have achieve the same thing by signing some UFA. UFAs cost more, and their best years are generally pass them. They don't have potential anymore. Newhook hasn't reach his peak years yet.

Both the Romaonv+ for Dach and the 31/37 for Newhook trades were circumstantial. I don't believe this is about Hughes undervaluing picks. It's about circling team needs and who is available that may fit those needs. Using pieces from a organizational strength to make it happen.

 

[Whitesnake]

Dude we paid 2 early 2nds for this player. I think the price was a bit steep but the odds that those early 2nds becoming NHLers let alone someone as good as Newhook is low.

Well I don't know man in that regard. I think that we could safely say that a top 3 pick like Dach will have a greater chance at success than a 13th pick...but an undersized No16 drafted out of the BCHL....compared to 2 amongst let say Edstrom, Gauthier, Gulyayev, Brindely, Hrabal or the top other goalies....I don't know that for now. And I like Newhook.

Thing is if we use stats to prove a point....guys drafted from the BCHL that became top players of their respective team..percentage is low too. Out of all the players from that league, you could say that their success stories are Benn, Zajac and Turris. 3 out of a whole lot in the last 20 years.

So percentages should be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion. I guess we could say how AJHL is even worst, yet...there's Cale Makar....When somebody is great...he is.

 

[Runner77]

I'm an Avs fan, I watched him almost every game for the last two years.

I'm sorry to tell you that he does not have that separation, elite speed. Furthermore his acceleration and edgework is not good enough to make him shifty.

He might have lower body strength, I don't know because he loses 1vs1 battles all the time. It's a big knock on him. He's also soft and doesn't get to the dirty areas. He's not good enough defensively to be a center.

What he is is a good kid with decent skill and speed.

It’s always sobering to read the comments of a fan who has watched him as regularly as you have. I won’t dismiss your comments outright even if several posters in our fanbase are knowledgeable and made several compelling points — just curious as to how much more there is under the hood.

The rest is about how effective his new environment might be in bringing out those attributes and they’ve shown they can get the best out of a young player. Hopefully happens with Newhook too.

 

[The Real Timo]

I'm an Avs fan, I watched him almost every game for the last two years.

I'm sorry to tell you that he does not have that separation, elite speed. Furthermore his acceleration and edgework is not good enough to make him shifty.

He might have lower body strength, I don't know because he loses 1vs1 battles all the time. It's a big knock on him. He's also soft and doesn't get to the dirty areas. He's not good enough defensively to be a center.

What he is is a good kid with decent skill and speed.

Sounds like we got ourselves another Drouin here... Hope he doesn't get 5M per. Sigh.

 

[Whitesnake]

One thing is sure....Sakic would have needed a Newhook that we think he can be here. Instead of that..he decided to go with Johansen and Drouin....

Hopefully he does more than what our expectations should be...

 

[Frank Drebin]

Sounds like we got ourselves another Drouin here... Hope he doesn't get 5M per. Sigh.

I would take avs fans opinions on newhook with a huge grain of salt. Just like hawks fans with Dach from last season.

 

[Andy]

One thing is sure....Sakic would have needed a Newhook that we think he can be here. Instead of that..he decided to go with Johansen and Drouin....

Hopefully he does more than what our expectations should be...

Sakic has a limited cup window to get the most out of Makar, MaK and Ratanen. He needs to go all in the next couple of years the way Tampa has, the way the Pens and Hawks did before them.

Sakic doesn't have luxury to be patient with Newhook and devote development time. He needs more certainty.

The habs have the luxury of time when it comes to development. It's really as simple as that. Newhook probably still needs some seasoning that colorado just can't give him in their current context.

 

[Rapala]

Ahh come on dude, you're asking WAY too much out of your 3C lol
Dach was producing easy 2C numbers last year
Check the production from Vegas 3C and Fla 3C, you'd be surprised

The Great Lars Eller did it he had 38 36 and 39 pts. three seasons running with Washington. Which also coincided with their Cup Run.
I don't think 38 points is WAY too much at all. It's probably how many points our 3C will have to put up if we ever hope to win again.
We don't have an Eichel and we don't have a Barkov which is constantly being brought up so those teams are probably not the best examples.
This probably isn't the right thread to be discussing this but just don't ask me to look at season ending stats and pretend they are something they aren't.

 

[Saundies]

Hughes is betting on the "change of scenery" effect and the type of player Newhook can be in his eyes. He might not be that right now or when he was in Colorado, but that doesn't mean he'll never be that.

There's a ton we could have said about Arturri Lehknonen's shortcomings before trading him to Colorado and look at him now. There's a ton we could say about Drouin right now going to Colorado, and who knows how that will turn out?

Some guys play better in different spots. Calgary waived Paul Byron, ffs. It happens.

 

[Whitesnake]

Sakic has a limited cup window to get the most out of Makar, MaK and Ratanen. He needs to go all in the next couple of years the way Tampa has, the way the Pens and Hawks did before them.

Sakic doesn't have luxury to be patient with Newhook and devote development time. He needs more certainty.

The habs have the luxury of time when it comes to development. It's really as simple as that. Newhook probably still needs some seasoning that colorado just can't give him in their current context.

I do not see more certainty with Johansen instead of a 3rd full season Newhook. Nor do I see Drouin more a certainty if they wanted to move Newhook on the wings.

 

[Andy]

I do not see more certainty with Johansen instead of a 3rd full season Newhook. Nor do I see Drouin more a certainty if they wanted to move Newhook on the wings.

Ryan Johansen is 30 years old and is one season removed from scoring 63 points in 79 games. He's definitely far more certain than Newhook at the moment.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

One thing is sure....Sakic would have needed a Newhook that we think he can be here. Instead of that..he decided to go with Johansen and Drouin....

Hopefully he does more than what our expectations should be...

We all know that Mackinnon asked Sakic to sign Drouin for a year. Let me tell you t hat this was not Sakic decision

 

[Frank Drebin]

I do not see more certainty with Johansen instead of a 3rd full season Newhook. Nor do I see Drouin more a certainty if they wanted to move Newhook on the wings.

Maybe this wasn't a bright move by Colorado.

 

[Andy]

Hughes is betting on the "change of scenery" effect and the type of player Newhook can be in his eyes. He might not be that right now or when he was in Colorado, but that doesn't mean he'll never be that.

There's a ton we could have said about Arturri Lehknonen's shortcomings before trading him to Colorado and look at him now. There's a ton we could say about Drouin right now going to Colorado, and who knows how that will turn out?

Some guys play better in different spots. Calgary waived Paul Byron, ffs. It happens.

Precisely.

I'm certain many here could not have predicted that Lehkonen would go from a 30 point (to 40 point pace in his final season with the habs) to a 55 point player.

Context matters. Role matters.

It's clear that both Sakic and Hughes recognize that Newhooks needs seasoning and development. The former doesn't have the capacity to offer that, the latter does.

 

[Whitesnake]

We all know that Mackinnon asked Sakic to sign Drouin for a year. Let me tell you t hat this was not Sakic decision

What about Johansen? For a team who wants to build on speed, why in the world was Johansen a greater certainty than a Newhook who we think will be able to put 50-60 points?

Ryan Johansen is 30 years old and is one season removed from scoring 63 points in 79 games. He's definitely far more certain than Newhook at the moment.

1 season off means he's downgrading. In his game and in his production. As called by everybody. both guys totally in a different trajectory.

By the way, not against the deal. Just saying that I don't buy the whole stats thing. The whole stats would never have predicted for Boston to build a team with Bergeron and Marchand. And yet they did. Why can't we one day?

 

[junyab]

I disagreed with the Dach trade from Chicago's standpoint. I don't know why they felt the need to go full scorched earth with he and Debrincat, yet kept Kane and Toews.

But I can at least understand why they would make trades for futures. They're rebuilding.
Colorado is trying to win. Why are they dumping young, controlled, NHL players for picks? That makes little sense unless they just want to move on for hockey reasons.

I don't think Chicago moved Dach because he didn't fit their plan, disliked him or didn't see his potential. They could've just valued the picks more.

 

[SlafySZN]

I don't think Chicago moved Dach because he didn't fit their plan, disliked him or didn't see his potential. They could've just valued the picks more.

Which is a mistake. They could’ve get Bedard with Dach in the lineup and right now they would have Bedard/Dach. But i’m not mad