Aho or Matthews (including contracts)

[nobody]

I dont think people are arguing that the first overall pick was more NHL ready 3 years ago than the second round pick. So there isnt a point in comparing their averages for their career. Development isnt linear. People are talking about going forward and right now it looks like theyre close to similar production going forward, Aho has been healthier and is better defensively. Is the slight potential increase in points from Matthews over Aho worth the extra money? Not to me, contracts not included I would take Matthews but it isnt a blowout by any means

Are we really going to pretend to feel bad for Matthews because of his linemates now? He plays on a PP with Marner, Tavares, Rielly etc. but we're going to hold Aho playing with Terevainen against him?

Matthews played the whole season with AJ, Kappy and Marleau. These guys had a combined PPG of 0.53 or about 44 points over a full season.

Aho played mostly with TT, JWill, Nino and svech. Those guys had a combined PPG of 0.70 or about 57 points over a full season.

Matthews PPG: 1.07 GPG: 0.54 - POWERPLAY POINTS 20
Aho PPG: 1.01 GPG: 0.37 - POWERPLAY POINTS 24

Matthews vs line mates production difference: 0.54 - he literally double his line mates in production
Aho vs line mates production difference: 0.31 - very good edge over his line mates but still a fair gap

I understand the development argument. Believe me. But you also have to keep in mind that in his time with the Leafs Auston Matthews' only luxury was William Nylander. Willy as we all know decided to hold out and had an atrocious season taking away Auston's only reliable productive line mate. To date Matthews has played the majority of his games with Connor Brown, Zach Hyman, Andreas Johnson, Kasperi Kapanen, Patrick Marleau and William Nylander. Willy's best year has been 61 points in a full season which was blown away twice by Teuvo Teravainen in the last two seasons with point totals of 75 and 64.

Auston has done more with lesser pieces than arguably any star player in the league not named Connor McDavid/ Crosby. And even McDavid has Draisaitl. I've said it since day 1 when he was drafted. Matthews has the potential to be a Crosby level superstar in the league because he has the ability to carry junk line mates and still produce big time numbers. He's not quite at Crosby level yet but barring any more injuries he should be able to maintain a 90-95+ point pace every season while carrying rookies/ 40 point players. People love to hate him because of he's a maple leaf and the fanbase but if you watched the guy or even looked at the stat sheet you would realize all he has done since he has entered the league is score goals and put up points, regardless of how shitty his line mates are. Only thing slowing him down as of now are his injuries. He takes a long time to get back to his game after his injuries.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

HF in a nutshell
Thread on the main board "Rank the top 10 most valuable assets in the league today" with almost every list ranking Matthews in the top 5 and Aho is nowhere to be found.

Fast forward to this thread and Aho is dominating.

 

[Harhis]

Matthews played the whole season with AJ, Kappy and Marleau. These guys had a combined PPG of 0.53 or about 44 points over a full season.

Aho played mostly with TT, JWill, Nino and svech. Those guys had a combined PPG of 0.70 or about 57 points over a full season.

Matthews PPG: 1.07 GPG: 0.54 - POWERPLAY POINTS 20
Aho PPG: 1.01 GPG: 0.37 - POWERPLAY POINTS 24

Matthews vs line mates production difference: 0.54 - he literally double his line mates in production
Aho vs line mates production difference: 0.31 - very good edge over his line mates but still a fair gap

I understand the development argument. Believe me. But you also have to keep in mind that in his time with the Leafs Auston Matthews' only luxury was William Nylander. Willy as we all know decided to hold out and had an atrocious season taking away Auston's only reliable productive line mate. To date Matthews has played the majority of his games with Connor Brown, Zach Hyman, Andreas Johnson, Kasperi Kapanen, Patrick Marleau and William Nylander. Willy's best year has been 61 points in a full season which was blown away twice by Teuvo Teravainen in the last two seasons with point totals of 75 and 64.

Auston has done more with lesser pieces than arguably any star player in the league not named Connor McDavid/ Crosby. And even McDavid has Draisaitl. I've said it since day 1 when he was drafted. Matthews has the potential to be a Crosby level superstar in the league because he has the ability to carry junk line mates and still produce big time numbers. He's not quite at Crosby level yet but barring any more injuries he should be able to maintain a 90-95+ point pace every season while carrying rookies/ 40 point players. People love to hate him because of he's a maple leaf and the fanbase but if you watched the guy or even looked at the stat sheet you would realize all he has done since he has entered the league is score goals and put up points, regardless of how ****ty his line mates are. Only thing slowing him down as of now are his injuries. He takes a long time to get back to his game after his injuries.

Maybe Aho makes his linemates better?

 

[nobody]

Niederreiter was traded to Carolina on Jan. 17 and played his first game with the team on Jan. 18.

Aho had 51 points in 46 games before the trade, and 32 points in the 36 games after the trade, while playing injured for the last two months of the season and also with lesser linemates.

So not a hugely significant difference either way, Aho was still around a PPG and showed he can carry a line without another star player (unless you're trying to argue Niederreiter and Williams are legitimate first line players, and I think we all know better)

but nice try

36 games < 46 games. I believe my statement about Aho playing MAJORITY of the season with TT was still correct. You can have your opinions.

 

[Roboturner913]

36 games < 46 games. I believe my statement about Aho playing MAJORITY of the season with TT was still correct. You can have your opinions.

Context is king, friend.

Your assertion was that Aho benefits greatly by playing with Teravanien. That has statistically been proven false.

Thanks for playing though

 

[nobody]

Maybe Aho makes his linemates better?

He does. No doubt. Just saying the guys playing with Aho have already shown to be decent players and are not rookies. Auston ends up with rookies. Every single year. Imagine if Aho had to play with 2 Svechnikovs the whole year. Heck, I don't think Auston has ever even played with a player on Svechnikovs level (I think he'll be better than Willy because of goal scoring in the future).

 

[nobody]

Context is king, friend.

Your assertion was that Aho benefits greatly by playing with Teravanien. That has statistically been proven false.

Thanks for playing though

I said, Aho played with productive players all year. Not saying they are the reason why Aho had a career year and over PPG. Aho drove his lines, no doubt. But are you going to tell me that Svech, Williams, TT and Nino are not collectively better than KK, AJ and Marleau?

I'm willing to make a bet that Matthews will comfortably outscore Aho and probably put up a 45-50 goal season while playing with KK and AJ next season. Barring he doesn't get injured. This season should be the first time in his tenure, he will not be forced to play with rookies on his line or over the hill vets who can't produce. Not to mention, losing Kadri probably gives Auston a solid 1-2 minute bump in ice time.

A healthy Auston Matthews next season gets you 50 goals and 100+ points quite easily. Aho I think caps out at 30 goals - 90 points, barring good production from TT (because I don't know if he's going to have J will or Nino on his line next year). If he ends up with lesser talent than what he had this year, I bet you Aho is not going to put up the same offensive numbers.

I would also be willing to bet that Carolina won't make the playoffs this next season either.

 

[Roboturner913]

Aho played so little time with Svechnikov it's insignificant. Svechnikov and Aho were on the ice together for a total of 4 goals all season. And I've already shown you that he produces at roughly a PPG level without Turbo on his line.

Niederreiter and Williams are fine depth players but they are lunch pail types, scoring on deflections and rebounds. Put them with an average offensive center like Jordan Staal and you wouldn't get a whole lot out of that line. I'd trade both of them for KK and AJ right this second.

And I'll take your salty bet. I always love that line though. It typically comes out when somebody is in the midst of losing an argument badly.

 

[nobody]

Aho played so little time with Svechnikov it's insignificant. Svechnikov and Aho were on the ice together for a total of 4 goals all season. And I've already shown you that he produces at roughly a PPG level without Turbo on his line.

Niederreiter and Williams are fine depth players but they are lunch pail types, scoring on deflections and rebounds. Put them with an average offensive center like Jordan Staal and you wouldn't get a whole lot out of that line. I'd trade both of them for KK and AJ right this second.

And I'll take your bet.

Awesome!

And you are right, my bad. I meant to include Ferland who had 40 points in 71 games, unlike Svech who had 37 in 82 games. Aho spent about 22% of his season with Ferland on his line.

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

That brings the average production of his top line mates to 0.73 PPG or about 60 points per. Which unfortunately aids my argument.

Also, just because those guys are lunch pail types doesn't deny the fact that they produced numbers last year. Both AJ and KK MIGHT end up being where Justin Williams and Nino were last year but they were both rookie players who were wildly inconsistent. Long run obviously you want the younger talent over guys who might drop off a cliff. Nino was magic for the Canes, this guy was a goal scoring machine and had instant chemistry on that line, much like Williams. Auston had zero chemistry with any of the players he was with. The only guys he has built chemistry with were Hyman and Willy. One was offered up to the JT line and the other spent half his season looking pretty in europe.

 

[tacogeoff]

Aho for me. better durability, better defensively and at a cheaper rate.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Auston has done more with lesser pieces than arguably any star player in the league not named Connor McDavid/ Crosby. And even McDavid has Draisaitl. I've said it since day 1 when he was drafted. Matthews has the potential to be a Crosby level superstar in the league because he has the ability to carry junk line mates and still produce big time numbers. He's not quite at Crosby level yet but barring any more injuries he should be able to maintain a 90-95+ point pace every season while carrying rookies/ 40 point players. People love to hate him because of he's a maple leaf and the fanbase but if you watched the guy or even looked at the stat sheet you would realize all he has done since he has entered the league is score goals and put up points, regardless of how ****ty his line mates are. Only thing slowing him down as of now are his injuries. He takes a long time to get back to his game after his injuries.

And there it is. When Leaf fans want to claim that Matthews never gets overrated by their fanbase, they should remember stuff like the bolded above.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Matthews. You pay 3M more for the better player. If Aho got 7 or 8 years it might be a different story.

until Aho scores 100p next year with the habs

 

[nobody]

And there it is. When Leaf fans want to claim that Matthews never gets overrated by their fanbase, they should remember stuff like the bolded above.

What that he has the potential to be a Crosby? How is that overrating a guy who set NTDP records, played in europe and won rookie of the year while finishing second in MVP voting as a 17 year old in a respectable swiss league. Then proceeding to follow it up with a rookie of the year in the NHL and 40 goal rookie campaign (first C since Lindros?) and averaging 43 goals/ 82 games thus far in his 3 year career. He has done all of that while carrying a over the hill vet in Marleau, Zach stone hands Hyman, Willy (who is good), Kappy and AJ (44 point wingers) in rookie seasons. This guy is no slouch. He is an absolute monster who was drafted 1st overall for a reason. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, I used the word potential. Never did I claim he was at or better than Crosby level.

So give it a rest. Maybe go pick up a dictionary.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Aho had 400 more minutes of ice time including a minute and a half more per game. That's a significant difference.

Matthews is gonna explode in produciton if he can just stay healthy for 82 games.

Oh, Aho can stay healthy and play a lot more games?

Thanks for the outlining the deciding factor for me.

Aho it is.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Matthews played the whole season with AJ, Kappy and Marleau. These guys had a combined PPG of 0.53 or about 44 points over a full season.

Aho played mostly with TT, JWill, Nino and svech. Those guys had a combined PPG of 0.70 or about 57 points over a full season.

So you're saying Aho makes the players around him score a crap ton of points, and Matthews doesn't?

Even more support for Aho then.

The debate isn't "Who has more talent."
I think most everyone agrees it's Matthews. But when you consider injury problems, and a whole extra 3 million per year, that's where things get dicey.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

What that he has the potential to be a Crosby? How is that overrating a guy who set NTDP records, played in europe and won rookie of the year while finishing second in MVP voting as a 17 year old in a respectable swiss league. Then proceeding to follow it up with a rookie of the year in the NHL and 40 goal rookie campaign (first C since Lindros?) and averaging 43 goals/ 82 games thus far in his 3 year career. He has done all of that while carrying a over the hill vet in Marleau, Zach stone hands Hyman, Willy (who is good), Kappy and AJ (44 point wingers) in rookie seasons. This guy is no slouch. He is an absolute monster who was drafted 1st overall for a reason. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, I used the word potential. Never did I claim he was at or better than Crosby level.

So give it a rest. Maybe go pick up a dictionary.

Because you're saying he has the potential to be on par with someone who is already considered one of the top 20 (if we're being modest) players of all time, someone who has broken the 100 point barrier multiple times, and someone who has a trophy case full of accolades.

The only thing Matthews might be able to match Crosby in is Rocket wins. And that's a big maybe if he ever can play a full 82 games at some point. He's nowhere close to Crosby's level anywhere else. That's why he's overrated.

So no, I don't need a dictionary (though I'm not even sure what that's supposed to mean because I wasn't criticizing your spelling or word choice). Maybe once Matthews breaks 100 points even one time, your statement might not seem so ridiculous. Right now, it's a classic case of overrating Matthews' potential.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Can I say Aho AINEC for for the likes?















And cause of the contract.

 

[Voight]

Matthews has never been underrated here. He hasn't hit 100 points yet, but he is still a top 3 player in the league according to "some"...

I've already heard all the excuses so don't bother.

He is a phenomenal player, no doubt, but right now I can't think of any athlete in the history of sports that has been more overrated.

The problem is, as soon as the Leafs drafted him people started trashing him and downplaying his skill. So Leaf fans, and others in general had to tell people how good he actually he is in order to get justice. Guarantee you if he ended on Winnipeg or Columbus people would talk differently about him.

 

[obey86]

Aho had 400 more minutes of ice time including a minute and a half more per game. That's a significant difference.

Matthews is gonna explode in produciton if he can just stay healthy for 82 games.

Why shouldn't Matthew's health be taken into account when comparing the value of these contracts?

I'd rather have a ~ppg center for 82 games for 8.5M than a ~ppg center for 65 games for 11.6M.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

62.2 to 37.8 for Aho at the moment.

 

[Halla]

Contracts aside they are close but Aho has less offensive support upfront. However taking contract into this how anybody takes Mathews is just being a homer. Aho is healthy to let's see moving forward what happens but I'm taking Aho.

Matthews had 40g/69pts as a rookie D+1, Aho had 49pts D+2
63pts in 62 games for Matthews D+2 ,65pts in 78 games for AHo
73pts in 68 games for AM34 D+3, 83pts in 82 games for Aho D+4

AM34: 112g/205pts in 212 games
Aho: 83g/197pts in 242 games

Matthews has 29 more goals in 30 less games and he is younger....

"But but Matthews played on a better team!"
nah, Matthews got drafted by the WORST team in the league. maybe, just maybe his 40g helped the team into the playoffs?

 

[Artorius Horus T]

I would still go with Mathews. He has a superstar quality to him, a confidence and leadership that I think will take the Leafs to the cup one day.

Love Aho too, fantastic player and so exciting to watch. But Austin for me. I say that as a Canucks fan (hard to say something nice about Toronto )

I thought leadership is what he lacks, hasn't led his teams to anything yet, as an adult.
4 play-offs as a pro, 4 first round exists. 3rd place finish at the World Juniors.

NLA play-offs: stacked team, biggest favorites, 1st round embarrassing 4-0 loss to the lowest seed team, 3 assists.

3 times in the NHL Stanley Cup Play-Offs, 3 first round exists: 5 points (4 goals) in 6 games, 2 points in 7 games, 6 points (5 goals) in 7 games
10 play-off goals yes but 0 game winners, and only 2 PP (1 PP assist) goals, 8 x 5 on 5 goals is great but -5 is not,
because 10 x 5 on 5 points (8+2) give him +10 but when you have -5 as total.... the actual number is 15.

He might have good 2-way game in him at times (i have seen good 2-way games from him) but mostly, its MIA.
When it counts the most (at the moment) , he isn't leading jack ****.

Aho rose to the superstar level last season where as Matthews have superstar level potential.
he has not yet reached his full potential, due to his injuries.

 

[Halla]

Why shouldn't Matthew's health be taken into account when comparing the value of these contracts?

I'd rather have a ~ppg center for 82 games for 8.5M than a ~ppg center for 65 games for 11.6M.

Matthews has a 1.07ppg aho was at 1.01....those arent the same

would you take the 8.5 ppg C over the 12.5ppg center in edmonton as well?

 

[Halla]

I thought leadership is what he lacks, hasn't led his teams to anything yet, as an adult.
4 play-offs as a pro, 4 first round exists. 3rd place finish at the World Juniors.

NLA play-offs: stacked team, biggest favorites, 1st round embarrassing 4-0 loss to the lowest seed team, 3 assists.

3 times in the NHL Stanley Cup Play-Offs, 3 first round exists: 5 points (4 goals) in 6 games, 2 points in 7 games, 6 points (5 goals) in 7 games
10 play-off goals yes but 0 game winners, and only 2 PP (1 PP assist) goals, 8 x 5 on 5 goals is great but -5 is not,
because 10 x 5 on 5 points (8+2) give him +10 but when you have -5 as total.... the actual number is 15.

He might have good 2-way game in him at times (i have seen good 2-way games from him) but mostly, its MIA.
When it counts the most (at the moment) , he isn't leading jack ****.

Aho rose to the superstar level last season where as Matthews have superstar level potential.
he has not yet reached his full potential, due to his injuries.

so the 1.01 ppg guy is a superstar but the guy who has a better ppg than that for the last 2 years isn't?

the guy who has 34,37,and 40g isnt but the guy who just hit 30 is?

recency bias really strong here because the canes won a couple rounds before getting destroyed by the bruins. If they had played boston in rd 1 they wouldnt have even won a game

 

[Artorius Horus T]

I was a bit too harsh on Matthews. Sorry but, he lacks certain things what Aho already has aced.