Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[txpd]

But Grubauer is younger, has upside and is cheaper as he is cost controlled.

Bishop will want a huge contract.

Fleury has a big contract and his best days are behind him.

Halak is trending down, makes a decent amount and has always been a bit injury prone.



Wilson is a unique player. Not many teams can boast a true enforcer that can actually play, skate, hit, PK etc. He's only 22 on top of that.

as I said. yes, Grubauer is young and cheap and has upside. put him behind an awful team and you may easily kill his upside. Halak is perfect. You don't care if you feed him to a meat grinder.

Who cares if their best days are behind them. They wont be with the team when they are ready to compete. And they are still required to hit the salary floor. So, they need some players on contracts.

 

[Revelation]

as I said. yes, Grubauer is young and cheap and has upside. put him behind an awful team and you may easily kill his upside. Halak is perfect. You don't care if you feed him to a meat grinder.

Who cares if their best days are behind them. They wont be with the team when they are ready to compete. And they are still required to hit the salary floor. So, they need some players on contracts.

So they'd take a goalie with 0 upside instead of a goalie with upside because they'd be worried the goalie with upside may end up with 0 upside?

If I were Vegas I'd take goalies from teams that bribe me the most and have the least to offer (St. Louis for example has all their good players protected and may want to get rid of Allen), just for assets, then find a starter by cycling through the Chad Johnsons/Condons/Greiss's of the league throughout the season. Sign Jack Campbell to a two-way and give him a shot next year for example.

 

[BobRouse]

Good news is that the Undertaker can only get one of our guys.

But it will likely be one that he himself drafted or at least brought on board me thinks.

Schmidt or Grubauer seem to make the most sense.

 

[trick9]

TJ Oshie is playing himself out of our price range.

Leave some goals for Ovechkin now.

 

[BobRouse]

TJ Oshie is playing himself out of our price range.

Leave some goals for Ovechkin now.

He's already out of it and was before the season started. We saw what Lucic and Backes got.

Oshie will be getting those kinds of figures if not more. In the PDO cast they said Alzner is looking for $6 million per as well.

Both of them are as good as gone.

 

[EroCaps]

He's already out of it and was before the season started. We saw what Lucic and Backes got.

Oshie will be getting those kinds of figures if not more. In the PDO cast they said Alzner is looking for $6 million per as well.

Both of them are as good as gone.

Williams is good as gone. I would hope they pony up the cash to sign Oshie, at least.

Keeping Eller and losing both Oshie and Alzner would be straight dumb.

 

[Blades of Steel]

As much as I like Alzner, he's definitely the one to let go when deciding between him and Oshie.

I agree also on Williams, I think he's gone.

 

[BobRouse]

Williams is good as gone. I would hope they pony up the cash to sign Oshie, at least.

Keeping Eller and losing both Oshie and Alzner would be straight dumb.

I ran the numbers and there is a chance they could retain Williams but Alzner and Oshie have no shot. Caps just can't afford either of them.

Even if we lose Eller we probably still couldn't afford those guys.

Oshie will get $35/5 or $36+/6. Alzner similar. We just can't afford that with our RFAs

 

[Blades of Steel]

I ran the numbers and there is a chance they could retain Williams but Alzner and Oshie have no shot. Caps just can't afford either of them.

Even if we lose Eller we probably still couldn't afford those guys.

Oshie will get $35/5 or $36+/6. Alzner similar. We just can't afford that with our RFAs

 

[BobRouse]

Someone is welcome to correct me if I'm wrong but....

UFAs:

Alzner 2.8
Oshie 4.1
Williams 3.3
Winnik 2.5

are out. That's about 12.5-13 million of cap space. Generously assume increase of $3 mil in salary cap (not even assured of this...maybe much lower) that will leave us with $15-16 million.

Grubauer/Orlov/Bura/Kuz are all RFAs and will be due some sizeable raises. Optomisticly say $6 million in raises total (altho it could be higher! much higher!)

That would leave about $10 million (at most). Caps don't have any bad contracts really outside of Orpik.

If we use Sanford in place of Winnik and Vrana in place of Oshie/Williams that's about $2 million.

This leaves us $8 million for a top 4 dman (Alzner or his replacement) as well as a RW.

That $8 million is the best case scenario. If the Cap doesn't go up and we have to pay more to keep Kuz/Orlov/Bura we may have like $2 million and thus would have to force young guys from Hershey into the lineup.

Also Carlson will be a UFA at the end of next season I think and we have to save space for his significant raise unless we lose him too.

 

[Revelation]

If they lose all of Williams, Alzner and Oshie they might as well rebuild. That's nowhere near a cup contender.

Oshie they should keep, his game isn't gonna drop off with age since he's wits over speed. Give him the full 8 years for cheaper AAV, at most you'll be overpaying for 2 years of Williams level player.

They need to move Orpik, he's a ticking time bomb and if they lose Alzner and Orpik declines that defense is screwed. Maybe Orlov-Niskanen/Schmidt-Carlson is ok. Vrana also probably slides in for Johansson much better than for Oshie/Williams/Eller as far as style.

Calgary is getting Alzner, it's close to home and they've already convinced themselves he's the final piece to their defense and will anchor their top pairing as Brodie's LD. He's getting all of Wideman's money and a million on top if he wants it.

This is why I'm on the move Holtby train, if Grubauer steps in and runs with it it solves almost everything else for a few years.

 

[Stewie G]

Yes MOJO's having a decent season, but I'll never be enthralled with him. He's still too soft and seems to benefit more from the hard work of others. Trade him after the season for picks/prospects and you free up 4.5 in space to be used for resigning the likes of Oshie (can't believe that he currently is earning less than MOJO, what a travesty).

For next season Burakovsky can move up to the second line to take MOJO's spot. Vrana can move in to Bura's position on the third line and Sanford can move in to take Winnik's position on the fourth line.

Make the trade before the expansion draft and Caps can protect Ovie, Backstrom, Oshie, Kuzy, Bura, Eller and Beagle and leave unprotected Wilson and Connolly plus the two UFAs Winnik and Williams (though would like to have Williams back).

I think you're living in the past a bit. I've noticed Mojo much more willing to go to the front of the net and even take a bit of a beating while he's there. I'd even go as far as to say he's been one of the best screeners on the team the last year+. Just last night, Orlov's first goal likely gets saved if not for Mojo's screen.

He also seems to be stronger on the puck, and the team's move away from cycling plays towards his strength and helps mitigate any weaknesses as far as his (and others') board work goes.

 

[Blades of Steel]

If they lose all of Williams, Alzner and Oshie they might as well rebuild. That's nowhere near a cup contender.

Oshie they should keep, his game isn't gonna drop off with age since he's wits over speed. Give him the full 8 years for cheaper AAV, at most you'll be overpaying for 2 years of Williams level player.

They need to move Orpik, he's a ticking time bomb and if they lose Alzner and Orpik declines that defense is screwed. Maybe Orlov-Niskanen/Schmidt-Carlson is ok

This is why I'm on the move Holtby train, if Grubauer steps in and runs with it it solves almost everything else for a few years.

The Caps are not going to even think of moving Holtby until his contract is up and Samsonov (hopefully) has proven to be elite as thought to be. When's the last time an NHL team moved a goalie like Holtby to make cap space?

 

[Blades of Steel]

Also, I'm confident the Caps can find a cheaper D man to fill in for Alzner and let him walk, the system is well coached and Orlov/Schmidt has performed quite well in it, no reason to think BMac can't find new candidates to come in and do the same.

 

[trick9]

If they lose all of Williams, Alzner and Oshie they might as well rebuild. That's nowhere near a cup contender.

Oshie they should keep, his game isn't gonna drop off with age since he's wits over speed. Give him the full 8 years for cheaper AAV, at most you'll be overpaying for 2 years of Williams level player.

They need to move Orpik, he's a ticking time bomb and if they lose Alzner and Orpik declines that defense is screwed. Maybe Orlov-Niskanen/Schmidt-Carlson is ok

This is why I'm on the move Holtby train, if Grubauer steps in and runs with it it solves almost everything else for a few years.

I'd rather lose any 2 of Alzner, Williams and Oshie than lose Holtby and roll with Grubauer. It would even be a hard call if i had to choose between Holtby and all of those 3.

Besides trading Holtby to keep 1 those guys is borderline insane. Not to even mention that to do that trade you'd be trading him for futures to save that cap.

Don't want to keep Oshie at 5+ years. Also don't want to give this Alzner over 5 million. Would have done it for the player he was in last Playoffs, but not this one.

Banking on Phillip Grubauer to be like Braden Holtby is like saying we are completely fine if Ovechkin retires in the summer, we have Andre Burakovsky. Except the difference between the first 2 is propably even bigger than the latter 2. In that case add the word 'peak' in front of Ovechkin.

 

[BobRouse]

Also, I'm confident the Caps can find a cheaper D man to fill in for Alzner and let him walk, the system is well coached and Orlov/Schmidt has performed quite well in it, no reason to think BMac can't find new candidates to come in and do the same.

They really won't have a choice.

If GMGM takes Schmidt then we will really be in a bind but such is life in a salary cap league for a successful team.

Caps have to worry about the term for any incoming vet dman.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The Caps are not going to even think of moving Holtby until his contract is up and Samsonov (hopefully) has proven to be elite as thought to be. When's the last time an NHL team moved a goalie like Holtby to make cap space?

Why just last night on his NHL 16!

 

[Revelation]

The Caps are not going to even think of moving Holtby until his contract is up and Samsonov (hopefully) has proven to be elite as thought to be. When's the last time an NHL team moved a goalie like Holtby to make cap space?

No goalie is gonna prove themselves elite while Holtby is playing 70 games a year it's a catch 22.

For all we know we already have one. Holtby also has some pretty good trade value. The goalies on the last 2 cup finalists had about the same pedigree as Grubauer and also came out of nowhere.

 

[Langway]

I'd take Williams back for a season or two over Oshie and the $$$+term he's likely to get. Williams does a better job of consistently stirring the second line than Oshie does on the top line. The top line is only dangerous in transition mostly so I don't think Oshie is irreplaceable, though much of that blame probably should go to Ovechkin and his inconsistent, casual effort. Regardless, at his point not having Williams on the second line impacts their balance to a greater extent and Williams should be way more likely to stay at a discount.

Wilson at 4RW taking up $2M should only be under further scrutiny if he's on the roster next year in that same spot. They should see if they can get Connolly signed on the cheap since he's starting to become a fixture. Nothing outrageous but something in the $1M range wouldn't pose much downside for them. Not sure he'll be a top six player but having him as a relatively cheap depth scoring-line winger would help offset having to rely on rookies too much. I wouldn't count on any rookie outside of Vrana being on a scoring line any time soon anyway.

 

[g00n]

The Caps are not going to even think of moving Holtby until his contract is up and Samsonov (hopefully) has proven to be elite as thought to be. When's the last time an NHL team moved a goalie like Holtby to make cap space?

It hardly ever happens. The only things that come to mind recently are the trades of Ryan Miller and Luongo. In both cases a goaltender went the other way along with a player or two. Neither goaltender returned some ridiculous trade bonanza.

The Miller trade was probably the better deal since there was a 1st in it, but other than that not a huge windfall. And Miller wasn't atop the league at the time like Holtby has been. Luongo was also a few years removed from his Vezina and even being an All Star.

No goalie is gonna prove themselves elite while Holtby is playing 70 games a year it's a catch 22.

For all we know we already have one. Holtby also has some pretty good trade value. The goalies on the last 2 cup finalists had about the same pedigree as Grubauer and also came out of nowhere.

So what? There are uncounted goaltenders in NHL history who have had similar experience and then done nothing. It's a massive gamble. Cup teams get incredibly lucky when an inexperienced goaltender steps up. It's not something you make your Plan A.

This is Backup Quarterback Syndrome. The guy on the bench is always valued and fantasized about due to potential. He looks like a top player in limited appearances and people go nuts. But it's not the same as being the #1.

IF Holtby were to get injured and Grubauer were to assume workhorse duty and still play at a high enough level then maybe you consider it. But coming out of pocket with that move? No way.

What exactly do you think you could get back in a trade for Holtby?

 

[BobRouse]

Wilson at 4RW taking up $2M should only be under further scrutiny if he's on the roster next year in that same spot. They should see if they can get Connolly signed on the cheap since he's starting to become a fixture. Nothing outrageous but something in the $1M range wouldn't pose much downside for them. Not sure he'll be a top six player but having him as a relatively cheap depth scoring-line winger would help offset having to rely on rookies too much. I wouldn't count on any rookie outside of Vrana being on a scoring line any time soon anyway.

Yet another UFA.

If Connolly continues his current production and finishes with 15-20 goals he will get looks from other teams and that will drive his price up. I don't think we get him back at $1 mil unless he experiences a big dip in play and at that point the question will be if we even should bring him back.

We will need a lot of cheap young players to get in the lineup next year it seems.

 

[895]

Basically, this year is our best shot. If we don't win it this year, Ovechkin probably won't win it as a Capital if at all. Kind of a sobering thought.

So. Just. ****ing. Win.

 

[BobRouse]

Basically, this year is our best shot. If we don't win it this year, Ovechkin probably won't win it as a Capital if at all. Kind of a sobering thought.

So. Just. ****ing. Win.

Yes but that doesn't mean we won't be good going forward. We need to replenish the farm system however so I'd be very careful about giving up young assets this TDL unless we have to.

We should not be selling the farm IMO

 

[RandyHolt]

The problem with Oshie leaving... a gaping hole up top that we struggled for years to fill. He is not perfect, but contrary to popular belief, it's not easy being Ovi's winger. He is a high skill hardworking fireplug that does his thing wherever he is. He is like a skills comp sentry.

Maybe Connolly should get more looks at 1RW. Can anyone think of a comparable to him, even historically? He has an interesting skill set, seems tall and lanky... I dunno who but he reminds me of... someone. Not John Druce but along those lines.

OK whoever said Seidenberg was toast done finishe' before the season, raise your keyboard. Or, better yet, close your eyes, and then press Alt+F4

 

[BobRouse]

The problem with Oshie leaving... a gaping up top we struggled for years to fill. He is not perfect, but contrary to popular belief, it's not easy being Ovi's winger. He is a fireplug and does his thing wherever he is.

Maybe Connolly should get more looks at 1RW. Can anyone think of a comparable to him, even historically? He has an interesting skill set, seems tall and lanky... I dunno who but he reminds me of... someone.

OK whoever said Seidenberg was toast done finishe' before the season, raise your keyboard.

Oshie leaving is a BIG problem indeed. Unfortunately its unavoidable barring a miracle of some sorts.

Connolly remind you of? Jeff Toms???

Connolly has a strong shot. He definitely has some level of skill hence his draft pedigree.