Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[Alexander the Gr8]

This is the best Caps team of all time, even better than last year's team. If this team doesn't get it done, nothing will. If I'm GMBM, I'd probably go all-in this year.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Get 92 locked up early please, then we can start to project losses with more certainty.

 

[RandyHolt]

Oshie leaving is a BIG problem indeed. Unfortunately its unavoidable barring a miracle of some sorts.

Connolly remind you of? Jeff Toms???

Connolly has a strong shot. He definitely has some level of skill hence his draft pedigree.

Jeff Toms, good pull. Someone along those lines. Even 'Cons' skating style reminds me of someone too. It was funny watching him trying to get the 7th goal late vs Carolina on a bad angle, riding his hot streak. He knows how his bread is going to be buttered... goals.

 

[BobRouse]

This is the best Caps team of all time, even better than last year's team. If this team doesn't get it done, nothing will. If I'm GMBM, I'd probably go all-in this year.

Again..what does this even mean?

There is a reason this is the best Caps team of all time and leading the league right now...the players they have.

There is not one forward or dman that is a glaring problem or that's in dire need of upgrade.

Another reason we are doing well is chemistry. What kind of message does that send if we ship someone out to bring some other dude in? Even if no one goes out the door if we bring someone else in they will take the place of a current player in the lineup and even that won't sit well.

Upgrade the 7D? sure. But EVEN THAT is risky. Everyone seems to like and respect Chorney and moving him a slot further from playing could have consequences.

Not to mention we have very little cap space and very few young assets we can part with.

With our cap crunch we can't take on a contract with term either.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is the best Caps team of all time, even better than last year's team. If this team doesn't get it done, nothing will. If I'm GMBM, I'd probably go all-in this year.

Starting to feel like this is the year. I just wonder what sorts of all in moves are available. Feels like their all in move would not be an expensive rental, but maybe a guy they add to the core, that could take up the last retention slot.

Still a lot of regular season to get through.

 

[BobRouse]

Get 92 locked up early please, then we can start to project losses with more certainty.

That doesn't seem to be BMac's MO. Also not sure Kuz's agent wants to do anything just yet since his numbers at this point are down from last season. His agent probably wants him to hold off and continue his streak so at the bargaining table he will get $$$

Jeff Toms, good pull. Someone along those lines. Even 'Cons' skating style reminds me of someone too. It was funny watching him trying to get the 7th goal late vs Carolina on a bad angle, riding his hot streak. He knows how his bread is going to be buttered... goals.

I'll have to watch him closer. I can't put my finger on it. He seems to do everything above average.

 

[Revelation]

So what? There are uncounted goaltenders in NHL history who have had similar experience and then done nothing. It's a massive gamble. Cup teams get incredibly lucky when an inexperienced goaltender steps up. It's not something you make your Plan A.

This is Backup Quarterback Syndrome. The guy on the bench is always valued and fantasized about due to potential. He looks like a top player in limited appearances and people go nuts. But it's not the same as being the #1.

IF Holtby were to get injured and Grubauer were to assume workhorse duty and still play at a high enough level then maybe you consider it. But coming out of pocket with that move? No way.

What exactly do you think you could get back in a trade for Holtby?

Of course it's a gamble... which is something you need to look at when you're facing losing 3 or so impact players while your 2 most important players aren't getting any better. It's not a good situation.

Inexperienced goaltenders step up much more often than you make it seem. Cam Ward, Schiender, Jones, Murray, Craig Anderson, Greiss, Dubnyk, Bishop, Niemi/Crawford/Darling, Mike Smith, Elliott. All backup/journeymen/dudes with 0 experience that came in and dominated. There's 3 or 4 just about any given year that do it to a different degree of starter caliber. And it's not like Grubauer is some guy plucked off the street - we've seen enough of him to know he's the real deal at this point. No real weaknesses unlike say Neuvirth - only question is if it can keep it up over a longer stretch. Moreso than could have been said for Holtby at the end of Oates's tenure.

In a trade for Holtby we get cap relief on top of probably ~3 1st rounders worth of value - whether that's Dmen, forwards, or futures that get flipped for whatever Dman-forward we need. Would be interesting to see what the trade boards value him at.

 

[Langway]

Yet another UFA.

RFA actually, albeit arbitration-eligible. He has two RFA seasons left IINM. He reminds me a bit of a smaller Fehr. Someone else too but I can't place it.

The Caps will need to identify good, young trade targets for cap relief type deals in the coming years. If not this summer then very soon. Ditto high yield UFA targets.

Custance has an article out suggesting a weaker first round may lead to more first rounders being moved at the deadline. I'm not against the idea necessarily, it's just that at this point it's hard to figure where they ought to upgrade.

 

[BobRouse]

RFA actually, albeit arbitration-eligible. He has two RFA seasons left IINM. He reminds me a bit of a smaller Fehr. Someone else too but I can't place it.

The Caps will need to identify good, young trade targets for cap relief type deals in the coming years. If not this summer then very soon. Ditto high yield UFA targets.

Custance has an article out suggesting a weaker first round may lead to more first rounders being moved at the deadline. I'm not against the idea necessarily, it's just that at this point it's hard to figure where they ought to upgrade.

OK cool. That helps somewhat. Altho if he scores 15-20 and goes to arbitration we may have to walk.

The only thing I can possibly think of is D depth. I wouldn't touch any of the regulars. We have forward depth in Hershey...but on D ...well Ness is the next man up and that's a tad scary

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Again..what does this even mean?

There is a reason this is the best Caps team of all time and leading the league right now...the players they have.

There is not one forward or dman that is a glaring problem or that's in dire need of upgrade.

Another reason we are doing well is chemistry. What kind of message does that send if we ship someone out to bring some other dude in? Even if no one goes out the door if we bring someone else in they will take the place of a current player in the lineup and even that won't sit well.

Upgrade the 7D? sure. But EVEN THAT is risky. Everyone seems to like and respect Chorney and moving him a slot further from playing could have consequences.

Not to mention we have very little cap space and very few young assets we can part with.

With our cap crunch we can't take on a contract with term either.

You're right that about the existing roster being really strong but...

Upgrading the 7D is risky? Seems overplayed. How about just adding another depth body and let he and Chorney battle it out?

Also the whole "cap crunch"....the core of this team will remain intact, beyond that there are many directions they could go that would provide flexibility, like Alzner leaving, Oshie leaving, buying out Orpik and his remaining 9 mil in salary. Feels overplayed to scream we're locked in cap hell with no way to go I just yet.

 

[Blades of Steel]

No goalie is gonna prove themselves elite while Holtby is playing 70 games a year it's a catch 22.

For all we know we already have one. Holtby also has some pretty good trade value. The goalies on the last 2 cup finalists had about the same pedigree as Grubauer and also came out of nowhere.

you just proved my point in a way.

Murray in the scouting hockey world was projected to be an elite goalie behind the pens #1 goalie MAF. How did he get a chance? How does any young goalie ever get a chance? When the #1 goalie slips in performance or injury occurs, that's how.

 

[trick9]

The problem with Oshie leaving... a gaping hole up top that we struggled for years to fill. He is not perfect, but contrary to popular belief, it's not easy being Ovi's winger. He is a high skill hardworking fireplug that does his thing wherever he is. He is like a skills comp sentry.

Maybe Connolly should get more looks at 1RW. Can anyone think of a comparable to him, even historically? He has an interesting skill set, seems tall and lanky... I dunno who but he reminds me of... someone. Not John Druce but along those lines.

OK whoever said Seidenberg was toast done finishe' before the season, raise your keyboard. Or, better yet, close your eyes, and then press Alt+F4

He kind of reminds me of Justin Williams. They both try to keep the possession when the passing lanes aren't there, and sometime keep it for too long. Good passers but both are shoot-first guys with underrated shots. Both kind of have an sneaky physical edge at times. Solid around the boards (Williams propably slightly better now, he's relentless) and willing to drive the net. Williams is also propably slightly sneakier around the net, he's ridiculously good at finding the puck around there.

Connolly propably won't end up as 'Mr. Game 7' but he might very well follow Williams as the 'Mr. Corsi'.

 

[BobRouse]

You're right that about the existing roster being really strong but...

Upgrading the 7D is risky? Seems overplayed. How about just adding another depth body and let he and Chorney battle it out?

Also the whole "cap crunch"....the core of this team will remain intact, beyond that there are many directions they could go that would provide flexibility, like Alzner leaving, Oshie leaving, buying out Orpik and his remaining 9 mil in salary. Feels overplayed to scream we're locked in cap hell with no way to go I just yet.

There is potential risk but I do see the Caps adding that depth dman. But that's about it.

Cap crunch is very real. We are not going to buy out Orpik next year. Perhaps we will trade him in the last year of his deal in a Laich type trade. (especially if we lose Alzner+GMGM takes Schmidt). If that happened we will NEED Orpik and any savings we get from his buyout will only be used to replace him and him alone.

We are in a bad cap situation on the horizon. Remember Carlson is a UFA coming up soon.

We will be lucky to even bring back Williams next year. We will need an infusion of young cheap players to fill in the roster the next couple years especially on D.

 

[Blades of Steel]

We can assume Williams will want a term deal before retiring from the NHL right? Do we want to give an aging player (he's 35 or 36?) a term deal or let him walk? I like Williams but I think letting him walk may be the way to go unfortunately, by all means correct me if I'm not reading into this correctly.

 

[Revelation]

you just proved my point in a way.

Murray in the scouting hockey world was projected to be an elite goalie behind the pens #1 goalie MAF. How did he get a chance? How does any young goalie ever get a chance? When the #1 goalie slips in performance or injury occurs, that's how.

How did Martin Jones get a chance with the Sharks? 34 NHL games played before they got him, yet they trade a 1st rounder for him, clearly a team intending to contend, and don't just give him the starting position roll without even having a 1B backing him up. Completely sink or swim with him and swim all the way to the finals.

The fact that sometimes teams are shoehorned into making good decisions by injuries doesn't mean it's the only way to go about it. If the Pens roll with Fleury last year they all but certainly don't win the cup.

 

[BobRouse]

We can assume Williams will want a term deal before retiring from the NHL right? Do we want to give an aging player (he's 35 or 36?) a term deal or let him walk? I like Williams but I think letting him walk may be the way to go unfortunately, by all means correct me if I'm not reading into this correctly.

You are correct. Unless he accepts a 1 year deal (did Joel Ward do that?) he is gone.

We cannot lose Carlson the following year.

 

[RandyHolt]

He kind of reminds me of Justin Williams. They both try to keep the possession when the passing lanes aren't there, and sometime keep it for too long. Good passers but both are shoot-first guys with underrated shots. Both kind of have an sneaky physical edge at times. Solid around the boards (Williams propably slightly better now, he's relentless) and willing to drive the net. Williams is also propably slightly sneakier around the net, he's ridiculously good at finding the puck around there.

Connolly propably won't end up as 'Mr. Game 7' but he might very well follow Williams as the 'Mr. Corsi'.

As you describe their games, there is a lot of similarity there for sure.

What I was trying to remember was more physical appearance, skating style, tall RW big shot.. maybe a little bit Pat Flatley.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Again..what does this even mean?

There is a reason this is the best Caps team of all time and leading the league right now...the players they have.

There is not one forward or dman that is a glaring problem or that's in dire need of upgrade.

Another reason we are doing well is chemistry. What kind of message does that send if we ship someone out to bring some other dude in? Even if no one goes out the door if we bring someone else in they will take the place of a current player in the lineup and even that won't sit well.

Upgrade the 7D? sure. But EVEN THAT is risky. Everyone seems to like and respect Chorney and moving him a slot further from playing could have consequences.

Not to mention we have very little cap space and very few young assets we can part with.

With our cap crunch we can't take on a contract with term either.

Right now everything is working, so there's no need to trade for any player. However, should anything falter between now and the deadline, GMBM should work on a backup plan. There's only one guy that worries me in our lineup, and it's Carlson. He was terrible prior to getting injured, and who knows which Carlson we'll get in the playoffs? We need a contingency plan for him, I don't want to see Chorney on the ice every game in the playoffs.

Look at previous Cup winners. Some of them were rolling in January just like we are right now, and they still made moves at the deadline. It didn't disrupt their chemistry, guys get pushed in and out of lineups all the time. We traded our heart and soul guy last year because he wasn't getting the job done. We have to do whatever it takes to have the best team this year, and we should be willing to make sacrifices to improve the team.

There's no next year with this core. It's now or never for Ovechkin and co.

 

[Langway]

OK cool. That helps somewhat. Altho if he scores 15-20 and goes to arbitration we may have to walk.

The only thing I can possibly think of is D depth. I wouldn't touch any of the regulars. We have forward depth in Hershey...but on D ...well Ness is the next man up and that's a tad scary

Right. Depth is sensible enough (and they could arguably use a reserve veteran forward and a legit third goalie to help Hershey as well). I meant more in the way of upgrading a regular. Connolly was the big question mark. They could likely find a better player in the rental market but they'd have to build that chemistry up again and it's better than average as-is.

It seems to me the weak links among regulars from a consistency standpoint are Ovechkin, Johansson and Wilson. All three could be more effective offensively and make their lines closer to what the third line has become. But they're going to hope circumstances eventually lead Ovechkin to be more consistently engaged and I'm not sure they're prepared to make a change at the other two spots as long as the team is rolling. So, yeah, relatively inconsequential depth adds seem likely barring an injury.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That doesn't seem to be BMac's MO. Also not sure Kuz's agent wants to do anything just yet since his numbers at this point are down from last season. His agent probably wants him to hold off and continue his streak so at the bargaining table he will get $$$

He's only 12 pts off last season's pace and gaining ground. I don't think that's a huge issue today honestly, but maybe Bmac and company want to see his playoff effort too before deciding on the direction of the franchise?

 

[Blades of Steel]

How did Martin Jones get a chance with the Sharks? 34 NHL games played before they got him, yet they trade a 1st rounder for him, clearly a team intending to contend, and don't just give him the starting position but don't even have a 1B backing him up. Completely sink or swim with him.

The fact that sometimes teams are shoehorned into making good decisions by injuries doesn't mean it's the only way to go about it. If the Pens roll with Fleury last year they all but certainly don't win the cup.

He was behind Quick who had already won Cups and the Sharks had Niemi who was incredibly over rated and playing like garbage if I recall correctly. Jones wasn't their Holtby, he was their Grubauer. The Caps aren't going to trade Holtby..

 

[Revelation]

You are correct. Unless he accepts a 1 year deal (did Joel Ward do that?) he is gone.

We cannot lose Carlson the following year.

1 year ago losing Alzner was unthinkable yet we're pretty much unanimously ok with it now.

Carlson has warts that it doesn't seem like he's gonna outgrow, something that strongly smells like a chronic foot issue, and the team isn't missing a beat without him right now. He's not worth 7 million for what he brings to this team and he'll be getting multiple offers of 7x7.5

 

[Blades of Steel]

Right now everything is working, so there's no need to trade for any player. However, should anything falter between now and the deadline, GMBM should work on a backup plan. There's only one guy that worries me in our lineup, and it's Carlson. He was terrible prior to getting injured, and who knows which Carlson we'll get in the playoffs? We need a contingency plan for him, I don't want to see Chorney on the ice every game in the playoffs.

Look at previous Cup winners. Some of them were rolling in January just like we are right now, and they still made moves at the deadline. It didn't disrupt their chemistry, guys get pushed in and out of lineups all the time. We traded our heart and soul guy last year because he wasn't getting the job done. We have to do whatever it takes to have the best team this year, and we should be willing to make sacrifices to improve the team.

There's no next year with this core. It's now or never for Ovechkin and co.

I think the difference is we are slammed to the Cap and all 4 lines are producing, how do you make that move is the question and have the benefits far outweigh the possible risk? What's to improve really when we are scoring 5 goals every game? Probably not sustainable but I'm not sure where we should risk tinkering.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There is potential risk but I do see the Caps adding that depth dman. But that's about it.

Cap crunch is very real. We are not going to buy out Orpik next year. Perhaps we will trade him in the last year of his deal in a Laich type trade. (especially if we lose Alzner+GMGM takes Schmidt). If that happened we will NEED Orpik and any savings we get from his buyout will only be used to replace him and him alone.

We are in a bad cap situation on the horizon. Remember Carlson is a UFA coming up soon.

We will be lucky to even bring back Williams next year. We will need an infusion of young cheap players to fill in the roster the next couple years especially on D.

I'm not saying the cap crunch isn't real, I'm saying you're making a ton of proclamations today as if those are the only choices, when there are options. Seems obvious Vrana and Sanford are full timers next season unless something goes bad. Maybe Bowey too, although injury may have set him back.

 

[Revelation]

He was behind Quick who had already won Cups and the Sharks had Niemi who was incredibly over rated and playing like garbage if I recall correctly. Jones wasn't their Holtby, he was their Grubauer. The Caps aren't going to trade Holtby..

Yeah the Kings traded Jones and haven't done anything since then to show that it was the right move. Peter freaking Budaj is adequately filling in for Quick within their system

The team trading for Jones got 3 years of a cup caliber starter for 3 million a year though, all by taking a chance on a backup with 20 less career NHL games than Grubauer