Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[txpd]

goalies don't have a great trade value. even if the Caps were trading Holtby the return would not be what you would think. Lets say Grubauer is Neuvirth or Varly. Varly needed to be an established starter to earn a 1st round pick in return.

Also, whoever is the goalie for LV is going to get lit up. I would bet that McPhee will choose an established available NHL goalie who has proven he can play in the league and who's confidence may survive getting blown up behind a brand new team. A first time #1 could be destroyed by being put behind that team

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think it would be fairly easy to find a backup goaltender to sit on the bench and watch Holtby start 65-70 games a year while you groom the next #1 in the minors or overseas.

Wilson would be my 2nd choice.

I've thought it over, and I agree. Rather lose Gruby than Wilson. Backup.

 

[twabby]

And how many goals against did that amount to against the Pens? In other words, in tangible output, what do the stats above amount to that is so negative with regards to the scoresheet across the series?

Tom Wilson was a -3 with 1 assist in the series. Three games he was even (Games 1, 3, and 5) and three games he was a -1 (Games 2, 4, and 6: all one-goal losses, twice in OT). He had as many minor penalties as shots on goal (2).

 

[RandyHolt]

Wilson is a career 44.87% CF and 22% goals for at even strength during the playoffs. For whatever good his hitting and the threat of hitting do, he bleeds goals and shots against during the playoffs....

The entire teams bled chances. Did you notice the waves of odd mans we allowed the first 4 games vs Pitt, none of which were Willy's doing?

What did Schmidts playoff numbers look like, when not scratched? Don't forget Orlov's playoff advstats.

Our scoring vanishes every spring yet that is your measuring stick for Willy. Wilson's personal adv stats mean little, as he leaves his mark in other ways. He scares Dmen into mistakes, while most all fans were scared of 88 getting worked over down low most every shift.

Corsi and other stats does not take in account assignments. Especially in a playoff series against the future cup winner whose D needs a good pounding.

Willy got drafted onto a team with cup aspirations, and no patience to give him top 6/TOI/PP time. You set a very high bar on a big raw kid that needs time. This is hockey after all. Players take many years to develop.

 

[twabby]

I'd at least like to see his numbers steadily increasing, even if I am to accept that power forwards take longer to develop. Instead, his scoring rates are actually getting worse. It's a tough sell to believe he will ever evolve into an offensive threat.

 

[StephenPeat]

I realize the problems with signing either of those players. In both cases they will be very difficult to come close to replacing.

Meanwhile Beagle, Winnik and Wilson. Beagle is 31 and one season from being a UFA. Makes no sense to take him in the ex draft. Winnik is ufa. Wilson is young and his game continues to develop. He is a quality pk'r. His skating has significantly improved. For those that see him only has a plug and a goon, he only has 10 minor penalties this season.

And lets be honest. Defensemen around the league are afraid of him on the forecheck and those thinking of stirring it up against the Caps skill players think twice because Wilson is there. Very few teams have a real life enforcer who is also a quality special teams player.

I can only imagine a game like the Caps played against the Stars the other night if the Caps didn't have a player like Wilson. If the Caps didn't have Wilson I can essentially guarantee they'd be looking for someone just like him OR paying someone who's worse at nearly every actual skill aspect of the game (let's say Sestito) to take up a roster spot that Wilson is at least contributing some measurable positive from.

 

[Hivemind]

If you don't think a 22-year-old's draft position matters when you're talking about his value and potential in direct comparison to two guys drafted way later than he was, you're delusional.

I don't give a **** when he was drafter, either, nor am I sold on protecting him, but your estimation of his value last year and twabby's comparisons in general speak directly to how high his ceiling is perceived to be, and yes, that perception is affected by draft position when you're talking about a guy this young, drafted 16th overall.

Okay then, what's the value of Stefan Matteau? He's a 22 year old with a first round draft pedigree. How about Scott Laughton?

It's painfully obvious that the trajectory established by a young player after their draft is far more important than their draft position. We now have four and a half seasons of evaluation on Wilson since he's been drafted, 3.5 of which have occurred in the NHL. We're not talking about one bad stretch or even one bad year at this point, but rather a sample that's 20% of the length of Tom Wilson's entire life. The value of his contract has nothing to do with the perception of his upside, it was a bridge deal. This wasn't some long contract designed on keeping his cap hit down later in his career (see the types of deals given to Mike Richards or Jeff Carter). This was a 2-year bridge deal, which are designed to be affordable. The value of that contract should be driven by the players' leverage (of which Tom had very little, given his lack of arbitration rights) and comparables. Tom Wilson's bridge deal set the curve compared to those comparables, which include a former 8th overall pick.

 

[Hivemind]

goalies don't have a great trade value. even if the Caps were trading Holtby the return would not be what you would think. Lets say Grubauer is Neuvirth or Varly. Varly needed to be an established starter to earn a 1st round pick in return.

Cory Schneider never played in more than 33 games in a season before returning the 9th overall.
Martin Jones was less than two seasons removed from the AHL, with a total of 34 NHL career appearances (only 15 of which came the season before he was traded) when he fetched a 1st round pick and B prospect.
Frederik Andersen returned a 1st and a 2nd based off of one season as a starter.

And remember, the unprotected 1st that Varlamov returned was coming from the team that had just finished as the 2nd worst in the league with only 68 points. And the Capitals got a 2nd round pick on top of that.


The expansion draft is going to suppress goalie trade values, but in any other situation Grubauer would be a very tangible trade asset. If Grubby is still Capitals property after the expansion draft, he would almost certainly be the top trade target among the teams that miss out on the Ben Bishop sweepstakes.

 

[Jags]

Okay then, what's the value of Stefan Matteau? He's a 22 year old with a first round draft pedigree. How about Scott Laughton?

Two guys that can't crack a lineup? How do they compare to Tom Wilson?

You're acting like I *ever* argued his draft position all by itself. In both posts to you and twabby, it was one fact among a bunch of others -- his age, size, the degree to which his game has already developed, among other things -- to make an overall case for his current value and future potential.

It's not like I *ever* said anything like, "He was drafted #16! That makes him worth millions! We shouldn't trade him! We must protect him!"

In fact, I've said pretty much the opposite of all those things -- that he's getting about what he's worth, that I'm absolutely willing to trade him right now, and there are guys I'd protect in the expansion draft over him.

His draft position mattered when he signed that deal and it matters when you're making the types of comparisons twabby was. That's the only reason I brought it up.

And you're a smart guy, so you know that. Why you're being contrarian for no reason, I have no idea...

 

[Revelation]

Two guys that can't crack a lineup? How do they compare to Tom Wilson?

You're acting like I *ever* argued his draft position all by itself. In both posts to you and twabby, it was one fact among a bunch of others -- his age, size, the degree to which his game has already developed, among other things -- to make an overall case for his current value and future potential.

It's not like I *ever* said anything like, "He was drafted #16! That makes him worth millions! We shouldn't trade him! We must protect him!"

In fact, I've said pretty much the opposite of all those things -- that he's getting about what he's worth, that I'm absolutely willing to trade him right now, and there are guys I'd protect in the expansion draft over him.

His draft position mattered when he signed that deal and it matters when you're making the types of comparisons twabby was. That's the only reason I brought it up.

And you're a smart guy, so you know that. Why you're being contrarian for no reason, I have no idea...

Why did his draft position matter? Couturier's didn't. Grigorienko's didn't. Wilson had absolutely zero leverage of any kind. He wasn't gonna get an OS, didn't have arbitration rights, and wouldn't go to Europe over 500k

 

[Hivemind]

You keep bringing up his draft position. His draft position is irrelevant at this stage in the game. His draft position has no bearing on his contract.

 

[Jags]

Tom Wilson's bridge deal set the curve compared to those comparables, which include a former 8th overall pick.

That article lists 6 comps. Only 2 of those guys logged the games Wilson did by their 22nd birthdays. Both were top-10 picks.

Sheppard was okay in Minnesota, didn't improve year-to-year, and didn't win Lemaire over. They basically gave him another year, which he responded to by driving an ATV into a tree. Took him like 3 years to make it back to the NHL.

Burmistrov fared better, but right after his ELC he did what Revelation just said wasn't an option -- He left for the KHL. Came back 2 years later and got over $1.6m in today's dollars. Burmistrov was also 2 years older than Wilson when they signed their first post-ELC deals (Burmistrov was 24, Wilson was 22).

Here's the list of active NHL players during the cap era that played 200 games in the same span of time as your article. How many of those guys get $1.5m or less?

Tom Wilson is an every-day starter for a great team because he has extremely rare physicality and knows how to use it. He'd be a top-5 PKM forward on most teams in the league, and is solid defensively and on the forecheck. Size, speed, power, durability. He could have gotten what we gave him damn near anywhere.

I had no issues with the money, and certainly don't see a noteworthy track record for overpayment that would lead you to feel otherwise.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Also, whoever is the goalie for LV is going to get lit up. I would bet that McPhee will choose an established available NHL goalie who has proven he can play in the league and who's confidence may survive getting blown up behind a brand new team. A first time #1 could be destroyed by being put behind that team

From what I've seen, the 7F+3D vs 4F+4D thing means Vegas is gonna be overflowing with 2nd pairing defensemen (McQuaid, J. Johnson, Benn, Ericsson, Demers, Forbort, Brodin/Scandella, Emelin, Lovejoy, Hickey/de Haan, Klein, Methot, Dumoulin, Martin, Garrison, and Orlov/Schmidt all have a strong chance of being exposed), while their forwards will be a bunch of 3rd line grinders. They're probably gonna be dead last in offense, but I think they'll end up being a scrappy, defensively focused team capable of rolling three 2nd pairings, and not the sort of disaster that shatter's a goalie's confidence.

 

[Revelation]

A skilled Russian player leaving for the KHL is not comparable to a young North American grinder at all. Especially since Wilson would not get over a mil there.

 

[Raikkonen]

Why would we protect Eller? He can be selected and free up some cap space.

Beagle, Stephenson, Sanford - we can live without Eller. This is Williams's budget for example. Would rather sign Justin.

 

[Corby78]

Bishop, Fleury, Halak, all on the trade market, now hearing Colorado might be trying to dump Varly. Grubs value might not be as high if the market is flooded.

 

[BobRouse]

Bishop, Fleury, Halak, all on the trade market, now hearing Colorado might be trying to dump Varly. Grubs value might not be as high if the market is flooded.

But Grubauer is younger, has upside and is cheaper as he is cost controlled.

Bishop will want a huge contract.

Fleury has a big contract and his best days are behind him.

Halak is trending down, makes a decent amount and has always been a bit injury prone.



Wilson is a unique player. Not many teams can boast a true enforcer that can actually play, skate, hit, PK etc. He's only 22 on top of that.

 

[Revelation]

If Eller steps up in the playoffs (as per his rep) we pretty much have to protect him. He's a point under .5 PPG in the playoffs and as far as I know Therrien hated him and used him like crap. If he maintains that with us that's a pretty big improvement from what we usually get from 3C. Big fast hulking shutdown C who can outmuscle/tire out other players, contribute offensively and combined with Beagle's line take all defensive assignments leaving Backstrom and Kuz with good matchups. Sanford/Stephenson doesn't replace that at all. Just paid out the ass for him too at the draft.

May even make sense to turn Mojo into futures/leave him unprotected and gamble on Vrana replacing him, as Wilson/Eller are much more unique (and cheaper!).

If Eller lays an egg in the postseason then yeah, not a consideration.

 

[CapsYeti12]

Hi, I would like to know your opinion on Caps Trade deadline. Right now, we are in a winning mode and going for Presidents trophy.
What are the biggest needs?
Do you think, we go all-in or stay put?

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[hockeykicker]

Hi, I would like to know your opinion on Caps Trade deadline. Right now, we are in a winning mode and going for Presidents trophy.
What are the biggest needs?
Do you think, we go all-in or stay put?

I mean right now it's hard to say since all four lines are producing. Luckily the trade deadline is not until end of February so when they do cool off a little they have time to see what they need

 

[g00n]

That article lists 6 comps. Only 2 of those guys logged the games Wilson did by their 22nd birthdays. Both were top-10 picks.

Sheppard was okay in Minnesota, didn't improve year-to-year, and didn't win Lemaire over. They basically gave him another year, which he responded to by driving an ATV into a tree. Took him like 3 years to make it back to the NHL.

Burmistrov fared better, but right after his ELC he did what Revelation just said wasn't an option -- He left for the KHL. Came back 2 years later and got over $1.6m in today's dollars. Burmistrov was also 2 years older than Wilson when they signed their first post-ELC deals (Burmistrov was 24, Wilson was 22).

Here's the list of active NHL players during the cap era that played 200 games in the same span of time as your article. How many of those guys get $1.5m or less?

Tom Wilson is an every-day starter for a great team because he has extremely rare physicality and knows how to use it. He'd be a top-5 PKM forward on most teams in the league, and is solid defensively and on the forecheck. Size, speed, power, durability. He could have gotten what we gave him damn near anywhere.

I had no issues with the money, and certainly don't see a noteworthy track record for overpayment that would lead you to feel otherwise.

If that's the link I think it is then it was posted before, and we went through this back in early July, to everyone's satisfaction

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=120377393&highlight=sheppard#post120377393

 

[Raikkonen]

If Eller steps up in the playoffs (as per his rep) we pretty much have to protect him. He's a point under .5 PPG in the playoffs and as far as I know Therrien hated him and used him like crap. If he maintains that with us that's a pretty big improvement from what we usually get from 3C. Big fast hulking shutdown C who can outmuscle/tire out other players, contribute offensively and combined with Beagle's line take all defensive assignments leaving Backstrom and Kuz with good matchups. Sanford/Stephenson doesn't replace that at all. Just paid out the ass for him too at the draft.

May even make sense to turn Mojo into futures/leave him unprotected and gamble on Vrana replacing him, as Wilson/Eller are much more unique (and cheaper!).

If Eller lays an egg in the postseason then yeah, not a consideration.

As of now we have 3,5M #3C and 1,7M #4C. That's expensive.

1,7M 3C and under 1M 4C sounds much cheaper. Means we could have more space to sign Oshie/Williams/Orlov/Alzner/Kuzy/Bura/Connolly and so on.

You can live with such a lineup in regular season.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Why would we protect Eller? He can be selected and free up some cap space.

Beagle, Stephenson, Sanford - we can live without Eller. This is Williams's budget for example. Would rather sign Justin.

Had those same thoughts about Eller up until the past two weeks. His play of late has been very good. Hopefully this continues.

 

[Revelation]

I wonder how much Seidenberg is gonna go for at the deadline if the Isles are out of it. He's looking every bit as good as he was when Boston won the cup and he was beasting out on the top pairing with Chara. Nothing against Schmitty but Seids was an absolute playoff tested tank and is playing like it. 14 points, +19 on the freaking Isles