Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[BobRouse]

That is probably a best case scenario for the Caps. Another reason to leave him exposed.

And regarding the bad linemates excuse: that hasn't stopped Daniel Winnik or Jay Beagle potting several points this year. At some point you need to be able to produce even with bad linemates.

No way. Sure some on the message boards hate/do not approve of Tom Wilson.

But we all know the team does. We all know NHL execs all would love a player like him.

He is too unique and young to let go. Its not gonna happen

 

[twabby]

So who would you leave exposed in favor of Wilson? Eller? Beagle?

 

[BobRouse]

So who would you leave exposed in favor of Wilson? Eller? Beagle?

It would have to be Beagle. He is older. He'll be 32 when next season starts so chances are McPhee would not select him anyhow. Eller is 27 and Wilson 22.

 

[RandyHolt]

That is probably a best case scenario for the Caps. Another reason to leave him exposed.

And regarding the bad linemates excuse: that hasn't stopped Daniel Winnik or Jay Beagle potting several points this year. At some point you need to be able to produce even with bad linemates.

C'mon, those guys are polished vets that thrive in the grind game. He had to drag Richards up and down the ice half the year in his 10TOI at age 21.

Do you even know that Willy was asked or expected to score? I would think Barry wants him up and down even steven hockey throwing the occasional big hit.

Small mobile PMD types seem like a dime a dozen compared to potential power forwards.

I think you will appreciate Willy more once you see that throwing hits can change a series. An Isles Dman passed him the puck out front to avoid a hit. In a playoff game. He goaded Simmonds into a critical penalty last year. He plays on the edge, which is not easy to do. He brings things no other player in our org can. He is net positive.

 

[BobRouse]

C'mon, those guys are polished vets that thrive in the grind game.

Do you even know that Willy was asked or expected to score? I would think Barry wants him up and down even steven hockey throwing the occasional big hit.

Small mobile PMD types seem like a dime a dozen compared to potential power forwards.

I think you will appreciate Willy more once you see that throwing hits can change a series. An Isles Dman passed him the puck out front to avoid a hit. In a playoff game.

Yandle did that as well when we played the Rangers. It was comical.

Yandle was scared of Wilson all series. Legit SKURRRD!

 

[twabby]

C'mon, those guys are polished vets that thrive in the grind game. He had to drag Richards up and down the ice half the year in his 10TOI.

Do you even know that Willy was asked or expected to score? I would think Barry wants him up and down even steven hockey throwing the occasional big hit.

Small mobile PMD types seem like a dime a dozen compared to potential power forwards.

I think you will appreciate Willy more once you see that throwing hits can change a series. An Isles Dman passed him the puck out front to avoid a hit. In a playoff game.

Wilson is a career 44.87% CF and 22% goals for at even strength during the playoffs. For whatever good his hitting and the threat of hitting do, he bleeds goals and shots against during the playoffs. Tell me how much good he did against Pittsburgh last season or the Rangers in 2015.

I feel like the narrative of Tom Wilson is getting a little out of control. Would people here say the same things about Cal Clutterbuck or Matt Martin?

 

[txpd]

Then you have to expose 2 of Eller/Beagle/Wilson

Caps aren't going to do that to sign an aging 35 yo winger. Teams are not going to be lining up to sign Williams that desperately

Better to protect our key young assets.

Oshie and Williams will likely be their top goal scorers behind Ovechkin. Losing them both to free agency could be devastating. Particularly come playoffs if you fill their spots with kids.

Unless this expansion year is very different and its SOP around the league to leave pending UFAs unextended til after the ex draft, players that get that close to the opening of the UFA period leave their teams for new teams. I am thinking that the pre negotiating period will open right after the ex draft.

I would prefer to lose any of those three forwards than to lose Oshie at this point. Might be Williams is willing to go year to year in order to have a continuing chance to win.

Wilson is the only one of those 3 that is a younger asset

 

[BobRouse]

Oshie and Williams will likely be their top goal scorers behind Ovechkin. Losing them both to free agency could be devastating. Particularly come playoffs if you fill their spots with kids.

Unless this expansion year is very different and its SOP around the league to leave pending UFAs unextended til after the ex draft, players that get that close to the opening of the UFA period leave their teams for new teams. I am thinking that the pre negotiating period will open right after the ex draft.

I would prefer to lose any of those three forwards than to lose Oshie at this point. Might be Williams is willing to go year to year in order to have a continuing chance to win.

Wilson is the only one of those 3 that is a younger asset

The problem with Oshie is $$$. He will likely look for 6x6 if not more or longer term. That is too rich for the Caps blood. He will get it too thanks in part to playing with 8/19 and #1 PP unit.

Not to mention that he is 30 and scorers tend to start declining.

It will definitely hurt losing Oshie and Williams. They will likely look to bring in a bridge vet RW (probably resign Williams after expansion)

Oshie will want to hit the open market for his big payday and unless the Caps overpay they aren't keeping him.

Look at what guys like Backes and Lucic got last year? With the Cap going up most likely you can expect Oshie to get a ridiculous contract offer

 

[Langway]

It would have to be Beagle. He is older. He'll be 32 when next season starts so chances are McPhee would not select him anyhow. Eller is 27 and Wilson 22.

Beagle is older but he's also exactly the type of glue guy you often see on early expansion teams. Plus, he's not so old to be on his way out. Vegas is also going to want to put butts in the seats and be competitive and Beagle could be a leader for them. He's a premier 4C and maybe even good enough to play 3C (and kill Central teams more often). He's also another one setting himself up to become a pricey player after next year.

McPhee may treat all selections as assets so more likely he would opt for Grubauer, Schmidt or Wilson but I wouldn't rule out Beagle being picked over Schmidt or Wilson. The later two are younger but Vegas will need to select some variety.

 

[txpd]

I realize the problems with signing either of those players. In both cases they will be very difficult to come close to replacing.

Meanwhile Beagle, Winnik and Wilson. Beagle is 31 and one season from being a UFA. Makes no sense to take him in the ex draft. Winnik is ufa. Wilson is young and his game continues to develop. He is a quality pk'r. His skating has significantly improved. For those that see him only has a plug and a goon, he only has 10 minor penalties this season.

And lets be honest. Defensemen around the league are afraid of him on the forecheck and those thinking of stirring it up against the Caps skill players think twice because Wilson is there. Very few teams have a real life enforcer who is also a quality special teams player.

 

[BobRouse]

RE: Beagle - I agree with both you guys. He will be tough to replace and is a great glue guy! However...he will be 32 next October and on the last year of his deal. McPhee won't take him over prime young assets like Schmidt/Grubauer.

RE: Oshie/Williams - will definitely suck losing them. Will definitely be hard replacing exactly what each brings.

But that's life in the NHL on a high profile contending team. There will be attrition.

We need to give raises to Kuz, Bura, and Orlov first and foremost.

We have Vrana who will take a RW spot and Sanford will replace Winnik most likely.

Our biggest concern is the D. Alzner will be gone to some team who will drastically overpay him (Toronto). GMGM may very well take Schmidt since he was heavily recruited yet signed by McPhee.

Bowey has missed a lot of time this season. Siegenthaler isn't ready I don't think.

We will need a RW and a top 4 D that is cheaper than Alzner.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I like Wilson (I have a jersey of his). But he's wildly over appreciated here. If it comes down to Schmidt/Orlov, Grubuaer, or Wilson.....you hope to lose Wison, every single time.

And it really isn't close.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wilson is a career 44.87% CF and 22% goals for at even strength during the playoffs. For whatever good his hitting and the threat of hitting do, he bleeds goals and shots against during the playoffs. Tell me how much good he did against Pittsburgh last season or the Rangers in 2015.

I feel like the narrative of Tom Wilson is getting a little out of control. Would people here say the same things about Cal Clutterbuck or Matt Martin?

And how many goals against did that amount to against the Pens? In other words, in tangible output, what do the stats above amount to that is so negative with regards to the scoresheet across the series?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I like Wilson (I have a jersey of his). But he's wildly over appreciated here. If it comes down to Schmidt/Orlov, Grubuaer, or Wilson.....you hope to lose Wison, every single time.

And it really isn't close.

I don't see a lot of ardent defenders of protecting Wilson, just a bunch railing away against him like usual. Today, agree with you on the protection.

 

[g00n]

I like Wilson (I have a jersey of his). But he's wildly over appreciated here. If it comes down to Schmidt/Orlov, Grubuaer, or Wilson.....you hope to lose Wison, every single time.

And it really isn't close.

I think it would be fairly easy to find a backup goaltender to sit on the bench and watch Holtby start 65-70 games a year while you groom the next #1 in the minors or overseas.

Wilson would be my 2nd choice.

 

[Jags]

Would people here say the same things about Cal Clutterbuck or Matt Martin?

Those guys are 5+ years older, drafted 2+ rounds later. Clutterbuck is smaller and plays smaller.

Wilson is 22 and improving, and could still find that offensive gear. And if the gear he finds is around 15+ goals, then he's a big, mean Sean Couturier. That's not such a bad thing.

If he doesn't find that gear and just finishes his current maturation arc -- a handful more goals, becoming more stalwart on the forecheck/D/PK -- then he's basically what Beagle and Winnik are right now, plus big and mean, and will likely never get big money. That ain't a bad thing, either.

 

[Jags]

The talk about signing Williams is crucially contingent upon whether we keep Oshie, and keeping Oshie might be crucially contingent upon whether we keep Alzner.

There's too many ifs to calculate. Unless GMBM signs at least one pending UFA/RFA, it's hard to even pretend you can speculate with any accuracy.

Not knowing what they're thinking about Alzner either way has a domino effect on every other thing they might do, unless they think they have a prayer at dumping Orpik's cap hit.

Too many variables...

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Yes MOJO's having a decent season, but I'll never be enthralled with him. He's still too soft and seems to benefit more from the hard work of others. Trade him after the season for picks/prospects and you free up 4.5 in space to be used for resigning the likes of Oshie (can't believe that he currently is earning less than MOJO, what a travesty).

For next season Burakovsky can move up to the second line to take MOJO's spot. Vrana can move in to Bura's position on the third line and Sanford can move in to take Winnik's position on the fourth line.

Make the trade before the expansion draft and Caps can protect Ovie, Backstrom, Oshie, Kuzy, Bura, Eller and Beagle and leave unprotected Wilson and Connolly plus the two UFAs Winnik and Williams (though would like to have Williams back).

 

[Hivemind]

We're nearly five years removed from Wilson's draft. The time for people to cite his draft position is long passed.

 

[Jags]

If you don't think a 22-year-old's draft position matters when you're talking about his value and potential in direct comparison to two guys drafted way later than he was, you're delusional.

I don't give a **** when he was drafter, either, nor am I sold on protecting him, but your estimation of his value last year and twabby's comparisons in general speak directly to how high his ceiling is perceived to be, and yes, that perception is affected by draft position when you're talking about a guy this young, drafted 16th overall.

 

[SpinningEdge]

I think we are overvaluing grubs. I don't think McPhee picks him.

Grubs is good - but GMGM sucks at evaluating goaltending - and he there will be other guys available that may be better. They could sign Bishop for big $$$, or Fleury... etc.

I still think Alzner signs and Orlov is the one gone. For some reason I just always felt like that was the one guy we are going to lose.

 

[Sam Spade]

We will need a RW and a top 4 D that is cheaper than Alzner.

Then why not just keep Alzner? Top four dman are not cheap.

I like Wilson (I have a jersey of his). But he's wildly over appreciated here. If it comes down to Schmidt/Orlov, Grubuaer, or Wilson.....you hope to lose Wison, every single time.

And it really isn't close.

Agreed.

I think we are overvaluing grubs. I don't think McPhee picks him.

Grubs is good - but GMGM sucks at evaluating goaltending - and he there will be other guys available that may be better. They could sign Bishop for big $$$, or Fleury... etc.

Uh, Varlamov, Holtby, Neivurth, Copley, Grubs......


The key to this entire off season will be Marge, they have to move him, but they seem obsessed with keeping him around.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Doubt that the benefit of being under the tutelage of the Goalie Whisperer is overlooked by GMs and that'll include GMGM. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...te-status-to-nhls-goalie-whisperer-mitch-korn

I'm inclined to believe that it'll be Grubauer that he'll select.

 

[RandyHolt]

I like Wilson (I have a jersey of his). But he's wildly over appreciated here. If it comes down to Schmidt/Orlov, Grubuaer, or Wilson.....you hope to lose Wison, every single time.

And it really isn't close.

I think Grubs is wildly over appreciated. I am not sure I would notice him gone if he was traded today. He had that shutout that one time. Nothing against him, but he barely plays. He certainly doesn't stand to get a huge workload anytime soon, to even build on his game, or prove otherwise.

Regardless, he is not going to supplant Holtby so his value to the team is diminished somewhat. Schmidt may be overvalued via tiny sample sizes of good play.... against weak opposition. He looked lost just last playoffs, along with Orlov. Heck, all spring both were scratch candidates.

McPhee might take Orlov over Willy, but that is it of the 4. His love of PMDs thing. That is, if he agent doesn't threaten to bolt.

 

[twabby]

If you don't think a 22-year-old's draft position matters when you're talking about his value and potential in direct comparison to two guys drafted way later than he was, you're delusional.

I don't give a **** when he was drafter, either, nor am I sold on protecting him, but your estimation of his value last year and twabby's comparisons in general speak directly to how high his ceiling is perceived to be, and yes, that perception is affected by draft position when you're talking about a guy this young, drafted 16th overall.

Draft position is just a perception of his value by one team at a single point in time. It has no bearing on his future production. I'd rather rely on a 3.5 year sample of NHL data points to project his future rather than what George McPhee and co. thought he was at age 17.

Given that his points/60 have actually gone down each of the past three seasons, why should anyone believe he'll be able to kick it into another gear offensively? If there was even a slight increase in points/60 I'd have more faith in his abilities. But he just seems to be getting worse offensively. He fumbles pucks, trips over himself way too much, and isn't particularly strong on the puck even if he is strong away from the puck. He's a 4th line PKing winger. Those are a dime a dozen.