Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[twabby]

Unless he falls apart this season I'd easily put Eller on my protected list of forwards, ahead of Beagle and Wilson. Eller is 4 years younger than Beagle and has shown he can drive possession on the third line and kill penalties very well. Wilson is just not a guy that needs to be protected and wouldn't be a big loss if for some reason he was selected by McPhee.

I'd also highly consider re-signing Williams and protecting him because while he is getting up there in age, he still produces and will not likely command a big deal like Oshie.

 

[BobRouse]

Zero chance we sign ANY UFAs prior to expansion draft.

Its just not going to happen.

We will protect the essentials and then try to sign the ones we want post-expansion.

Any UFA that we sign will probably demand that we protect them upon doing so anyhow.

 

[hockeykicker]

Trotz says caps will hold Carlson out til after all star break

 

[BobRouse]

Trotz says caps will hold Carlson out til after all star break

So it seems that it was the same kind of "Day to Day" Carlson we experienced last year

I hate how the NHL does this crud

 

[trick9]

So it seems that it was the same kind of "Day to Day" Carlson we experienced last year

I hate how the NHL does this crud

It's the right call.

Get some games for Chorney and assess the D depth situation bit better.

Not to mention the fact that John Carlson is absolutely crucial player if they want to make a deep Playoff run.

 

[895]

Don't know how much of it is related to Carlson's absence but our GA has been awful without him.

I don't even think Chorney has been bad.

 

[ovikovy817]

the same as not protecting UFAs, the only difference is UFAs can leave 2 weeks later.

Pending RFAs count toward the exposure requirement while pending UFAs do not.

Thanks.

I would protect.

G
1 => Holtby

D
1-2 => Carlson and Nisky
3 => Alzner (or Orlov, if we can sign Alzner after the expansion draft)

F
1-5 => Ovi, Nicky, Kuzya, MoJo and Bura
6-7 => Oshie and Williams (or 2/3 between 1)Eller, 2)Beagle and 3)Wilson, /preferably in this order/ if ... they same story as Alzner/Orlov)

Hope they can win the Cup this year, so it would be less "difficult", "emotional", to lose a guy. Even though it would suck for this guy to not be on the team for the banner raising ceremony.

 

[895]

There's no point in protecting Oshie and Williams because they are either taking a paycut to stay (in which case we sign them after) or are going to the highest bidder (in which case we can't afford them).

 

[BobRouse]

Don't know how much of it is related to Carlson's absence but our GA has been awful without him.

I don't even think Chorney has been bad.

The problem is that it slots all the Dpairs one higher.

Now instead of facing 2nd rate offensive players Nisk/Orlov have to face the top guys. That means Schmidt/Orpik can no longer feast on checking line players and must play against 2nd liners.

Chorney gets the minutes Schmidt/Orpik got and is doing "ok" but that combo of him and Alzner are not dominating like Schmidt/Orpik did in that slot.

I creates a domino effect

 

[Hivemind]

There's no point in protecting Oshie and Williams because they are either taking a paycut to stay (in which case we sign them after) or are going to the highest bidder (in which case we can't afford them).

I'm leaning towards this approach, as well. GMBM absolutely needs to be working Oshie/Alzner/Williams' agents right now to get a ballpark of the type of deals they're looking for, as it will inform a lot of what is going to need to happen for the expansion draft protection lists. Each case will need to be handled individually, but if the sense is that they are either locked into staying in Washington or that they are hellbent on getting the highest deal possible, then you leave them exposed.

 

[txpd]

It's the right call.

Get some games for Chorney and assess the D depth situation bit better.

Not to mention the fact that John Carlson is absolutely crucial player if they want to make a deep Playoff run.

that's not what BR was saying. A player that is day to day and going on the road trip and will probably play after missing a game, shouldn't be missing two or three weeks. certainly that scenario should not be SOP.

 

[discobob]

There's no point in protecting Oshie and Williams because they are either taking a paycut to stay (in which case we sign them after) or are going to the highest bidder (in which case we can't afford them).

THIS... protecting UFAs doesn't make sense. If they want to come back at the right price, they are able to, and we don't have to loose another player. If they don't want to come back, then it doesn't matter.... OR.... if they want to make bank, it still doesn't matter, they're still gonna leave...

 

[twabby]

The only problem I have with that is maybe they'll change their minds after the season is over and decide they DON'T want to take a paycut and stay with Washington. Maybe Williams will score 10 goals in a long playoff run and decide he wants to make bank as a UFA after his value is sky-high.

I'd lock in anyone at a team-friendly rate now even if it means taking up a protection spot, as long as it doesn't mean you have to expose a better player. Williams and Oshie in particular are certainly top 7 forwards on the team so I'd sign them now if they were willing to before allowing them a change of heart.

 

[discobob]

The only problem I have with that is maybe they'll change their minds after the season is over and decide they DON'T want to take a paycut and stay with Washington. Maybe Williams will score 10 goals in a long playoff run and decide he wants to make bank as a UFA after his value is sky-high.

I'd lock in anyone at a team-friendly rate now even if it means taking up a protection spot, as long as it doesn't mean you have to expose a better player. Williams and Oshie in particular are certainly top 7 forwards on the team so I'd sign them now if they were willing to before allowing them a change of heart.

I'd consider it for Oshie... if the price is really right. Not for Williams, who I like, but will be 36 early next season.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The truth is UFA's are going to have to wait.

I like the idea that Orlov and Alzner (and Schmidt) may well be going into the playoffs with their performances likely deciding who will continue their career in Washington. Motivated is good.

I could see a scenario where Nate Schmidt is McPhee's selection. I also feel we're overvaluing Grubby a bit as Caps fans. I see very little chance Beagle is protected or drafted.

My picks today are 8, 19, 90, 92, 65, 20, 2, 74, 9, 70. That leaves one forward spot, which I'd prefer we use after extending Oshie and then resign Alzner after the draft. If 9 poops the bed in the postseason, I would leave him exposed and consider Schmidt.

I hope the Caps are working hard on a Kuzy extension. IMO his contract is the biggest unknown and it severely impacts several other roster decisions.

 

[twabby]

I'd consider it for Oshie... if the price is really right. Not for Williams, who I like, but will be 36 early next season.

I'm not saying they should sign Williams to anything more than a 2 year deal. But he is tied with Ovechkin and Oshie in ES goals and tied for 5th in ES points and seems like he can continue being productive for another year or so. If you can lock him up short term for less than $4M a year I think that's a huge win and they should do it right away. If he's looking for more term or money, he probably isn't a fit.

 

[trick9]

I don't really worry about Justin Williams at the expansion draft. He's not going to sign with Las Vegas either way.

 

[twabby]

I don't really worry about Justin Williams at the expansion draft. He's not going to sign with Las Vegas either way.

It's not about Vegas and the expansion draft, it's doing your best to not let him get to free agency and test the market if you can sign him for a good deal beforehand.

 

[BobRouse]

It's not about Vegas and the expansion draft, it's doing your best to not let him get to free agency and test the market if you can sign him for a good deal beforehand.

Then you have to expose 2 of Eller/Beagle/Wilson

Caps aren't going to do that to sign an aging 35 yo winger. Teams are not going to be lining up to sign Williams that desperately

Better to protect our key young assets.

 

[twabby]

Then you have to expose 2 of Eller/Beagle/Wilson

Caps aren't going to do that to sign an aging 35 yo winger. Teams are not going to be lining up to sign Williams that desperately

Better to protect our key young assets.

If they do find a way to sign Williams before the expansion draft, I think a reasonable set of protected forwards is:

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Johansson, Kuznetsov, Williams, Eller, Burakovsky

It would mean exposing Beagle and Wilson but both probably top out at being 3rd/4th line tweeners and PKers which are relatively easy to replace in free agency, as opposed to Williams who has shown he can continue to produce at a top 6 level. That type of production is much more difficult and expensive to replace in free agency.

As far as I'm concerned Wilson's development is over. This is his 4th full season in the NHL and he hasn't shown any development other than PKing. If he had any untapped scoring prowess it would have shown by now. His skating, stick-handling, and shooting has never improved and his points per 60 have actually decreased each of the past 3 seasons (1.34, 1.19, and 1.03). Why exactly should he be valued by Washington? And why would Vegas decide to take Wilson over a quality young D or a potential #1 in Grubauer?

 

[BobRouse]

Williams has been a very good player. He is getting long in the tooth and was never a speed burner (way NHL is trending now)

Now....the teams that will want him (not to mention the kind he wants to goto) will have to be cup contenders.

Cup contenders have a bit of a problem....they are almost all maxed out on the salary cap and face similar issues the Caps do.

There is zero reason to sign him beforehand. They won't be losing him should they even want him back.

We need to watch cap space, get younger/faster...that's how the NHL is going. If Williams is around post expansion we can figure it out then.

I guarantee you personally that BMac is certainly not going to sign him or Oshie prior to the expansion draft I will tell you that.

 

[RandyHolt]

I think we would have seen greater improvement from Willy over the past 12 months if our offense had not been.... um... grindified.

Regardless, Willy's points have jumped up every year. 10, 17, 23... this year regressing, but the blizzard system sucked for him and countless others. As we have seen, Tom is trending up in the past weeks now that the snow finally melted. His defense has been improving over the years, but has always been responsible even as a rookie.

I am not sold he is cooked. He is only 22. It's really difficult to score ES goals in the current era and I contend him with 7G last year with crap for linemates is nothing to scoff at; label a bust.

GMs drool all over potential power forwards, and having patience is required as we all know. Shouldn't we? If you were in the game... nvrmnd. George will take him if exposed. Book it.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

If they do find a way to sign Williams before the expansion draft, I think a reasonable set of protected forwards is:

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Johansson, Kuznetsov, Williams, Eller, Burakovsky

It would mean exposing Beagle and Wilson but both probably top out at being 3rd/4th line tweeners and PKers which are relatively easy to replace in free agency, as opposed to Williams who has shown he can continue to produce at a top 6 level. That type of production is much more difficult and expensive to replace in free agency.

As far as I'm concerned Wilson's development is over. This is his 4th full season in the NHL and he hasn't shown any development other than PKing. If he had any untapped scoring prowess it would have shown by now. His skating, stick-handling, and shooting has never improved and his points per 60 have actually decreased each of the past 3 seasons (1.34, 1.19, and 1.03). Why exactly should he be valued by Washington? And why would Vegas decide to take Wilson over a quality young D or a potential #1 in Grubauer?

The same reasons McPhee drafted him the the 1st round

 

[twabby]

I think we would have seen greater improvement from Willy over the past 12 months if our offense had not been.... um... grindified.

Regardless, Willy's points have jumped up every year. 10, 17, 23... this year regressing, but the blizzard system sucked for him and countless others. As we have seen, Tom is trending up in the past weeks now that the snow finally melted. His defense has been improving the years, but has always been responsible even as a rookie.

I am not sold he is cooked. He is only 22. It's really difficult to score ES goals in the current era and I contend him with 7G last year with crap for linemates is nothing to scoff at; label a bust.

GMs drool all over potential power forwards. If you were in the game... nvrmnd. George will take him if exposed. Book it.

That is probably a best case scenario for the Caps. Another reason to leave him exposed.

And regarding the bad linemates excuse: that hasn't stopped Daniel Winnik or Jay Beagle potting several points this year. At some point you need to be able to produce even with bad linemates.