Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[txpd]

Oshie is currently tied for 21st in the league in goal scoring. Not sure how you can say that is not irreplaceable. We will see. Maybe Burt blows up in the playoffs but what we saw was Oshie was the guy last playoffs.

Not even talking about Williams. If the idea is to fill Oshie and Williams minutes with Burakovsky and Connolly, the offense is going to get hurt

 

[Raikkonen]

Oshie is currently tied for 21st in the league in goal scoring. Not sure how you can say that is not irreplaceable. We will see. Maybe Burt blows up in the playoffs but what we saw was Oshie was the guy last playoffs.

Not even talking about Williams. If the idea is to fill Oshie and Williams minutes with Burakovsky and Connolly, the offense is going to get hurt

How come the fact that Oshie is scoring at his best career pace (I bet it is his best) made him irreplaceable for the next 6 years (with 6M caphit)?

GMBM's traded for him to have a guy with lower caphit in his prime (for 2 years). We are having exactly that, maybe a bit more than expected.

Signing him for 6x6 isn't mandatory because of his pace, right?

 

[Revelation]

I'd rather trade Mojo and replace him with Vrana than let Oshie walk.

In that case you're getting back assets while replacing a speedy skilled nonphysical winger with a speedy skilled nonphysical winger. So like we'd be left with (for example) a low 1st, Oshie and Vrana vs Mojo and Vrana. That low 1st packaged with Orpik to free more cap space, possibly enough to bring back both Alzner and JW. The chance that Vrana slides in seamlessly for Mojo on the 2nd line is a lot higher than him doing the same for Oshie on the 1st, as Oshie is a completely different type of player. Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie/Vrana-Kuz-RW over Ovechkin-Backstrom-Vrana/Mojo-Kuz-RW any day

I'd also bank on Oshie being good until his late 30s, or rather regressing into a still useful Justin Williams. He's the one guy on the caps whose game wouldn't suffer from losing speed because of how crafty and heads up he always is.

Give him 8 years to get the lowest cap hit, say 8 x 5.35. Deal with it later as it's gonna be a bargain for a few years probably not ever an anchor except maybe in the last year.

There is no one in the system like Oshie coming up anytime soon. Maybe if Connolly takes an astronomical leap in development, he displays similar smarts and hustle from time to time. But Oshie is on 24/7, we've only had Knuble of our top RWs ever be always dialed in and he was nowhere near the player by the time he got here.

Alzner -> Johansen
Carlson -> Bowey
Mojo -> Vrana
Beagle -> Stephenson
Winnik -> Sanford
Orpik -> Siegelthaer
Wilson -> Barber
Holtbauer -> Samsonov/Vanecek

some of these are a reach but with Oshie there really is no successor

 

[SpinningEdge]

If it comes down to keeping Oshie and letting MoJo go - you do that 10 times out of 10

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-hanzal-talks-stall-canadiens-coyotes/

Arizona's ask makes the Eller deal seem like a bargain. Ironic also that Montreal is in the market for a center.

The "ask" means little. You always start high, people laugh and hang up and the seller adjusts their demands eventually. But yeah..can we trade Eller for that right now?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

1. Caps dominate the regular season.

2. Management (and some fans) are loathe to mess with the "chemistry", make any bold moves.

3. Teams trailing the Caps make moves which level the field.

4. Playoff failure.

You really think this comes down to a simple arms race?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

How come the fact that Oshie is scoring at his best career pace (I bet it is his best) made him irreplaceable for the next 6 years (with 6M caphit)?

GMBM's traded for him to have a guy with lower caphit in his prime (for 2 years). We are having exactly that, maybe a bit more than expected.

Signing him for 6x6 isn't mandatory because of his pace, right?

back to back career years in goals isn't just pace if he keeps playing well this season, it's DELIVERING. He's proving to be a key offensive player. Disagree? Very few players in the league are irreplaceable, but they're not going to magically replace what he's brought as a Cap so far.

 

[Revelation]

You really think this comes down to a simple arms race?

It did both times we faced the Pens. Kunitz/Guerin and Hagelin/Daley were big for them both times they beat us. And we could've used what those players brought as well

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If only it were so simple, and we had gaping holes in the lineup that they had.

 

[Revelation]

Connolly is a month removed from being a gaping hole. Carlson is hobbling and I'd put money on either him not fully healing/getting reinjured or someone from the D getting injured in the playoffs. It happened practically every year and is inevitable with how much abuse they take. I have a hard time seeing the team go deep with Chorney playing regular minutes against Pens/Rangers/Canadiens/Jackets/whoever.

It's hard to anticipate the future when everything is going so ****ing well but that's what you have to do. Winning cups is hard. Though if Carlson isn't ready by the deadline or looks shaky going into it it becomes a lot easier to choose reinforcing D over F.

Seidenberg looks like 2011 Seidenberg this year, hopefully the Pens don't ****ing get him. With the way they're both playing this year Orpik-Seidenberg would be one dope old school Phillips-Volchenkov type defensive pairing.

We also have one X factor for forwards with Vrana and no one comparable X factor for D. The smart bet assuming there's no injury/total dropoff from a forward would be to shore up D.

 

[Jags]

I'd also bank on Oshie being good until his late 30s, or rather regressing into a still useful Justin Williams. He's the one guy on the caps whose game wouldn't suffer from losing speed because of how crafty and heads up he always is.

I agree with all of this. He plays too many roles exceptionally well for us to weather his loss easily. I don't know about "late 30s" or 8-year contracts, but his game will age well. He's not a speed guy or punishing hitter. Speed fades, balls-out hitting takes its toll. If he learns to protect himself a little better, there's no reason he can't get another 6 years without much decline.

Oshie, Backstrom, and Ovechkin are all of a relative age. There's another 5- or 6-year window where you can build around them, then you phase them out over a couple years and lean on this new crop and whoever comes after.

There's not much behind Vrana now, so I'd hang on to MoJo and focus on defensive turnover in the next couple years.

 

[Jags]

In that case you're getting back assets while replacing a speedy skilled nonphysical winger with a speedy skilled nonphysical winger. So like we'd be left with (for example) a low 1st, Oshie and Vrana vs Mojo and Vrana. That low 1st packaged with Orpik to free more cap space

I'd take a similar approach, but I'd be more apt to trade Carlson. He's great, but his next contract is going to be huge, and we can't afford it. He's our 2RD now, and I don't see that changing. Take a chance on Schmidt filling that spot next year. The return for Carlson will be more than what you'd get for MoJo, and Holtby coupled with a high-octane offense can weather a couple defensive holes like Pitt did last year.

As you said, swap part of the return for Carlson and/or our 1st to move Orpik's deal, then focus all your efforts on getting the D to replace them.

Losing Orpik, Carlson, and Alzner in one year would be devastating, but between our current young D, our pretty decent D prospects, and the trade return for Carlson, we'd be okay. If not, THEN you swap MoJo straight up for a quality D.

Continuity on offense and in goal, offset by a calculated, dramatic turnover in defensive dollars and personnel.

 

[Revelation]

I'd take a similar approach, but I'd be more apt to trade Carlson. He's great, but his next contract is going to be huge, and we can't afford it. He's our 2RD now, and I don't see that changing. Take a chance on Schmidt filling that spot next year. The return for Carlson will be more than what you'd get for MoJo, and Holtby coupled with a high-octane offense can weather a couple defensive holes like Pitt did last year.

As you said, swap part of the return for Carlson and/or our 1st to move Orpik's deal, then focus all your efforts on getting the D to replace them.

Losing Orpik, Carlson, and Alzner in one year would be devastating, but between our current young D, our pretty decent D prospects, and the trade return for Carlson, we'd be okay. If not, THEN you swap MoJo straight up for a quality D.

Continuity on offense and in goal, offset by a calculated, dramatic turnover in defensive dollars and personnel.

With Mojo it's about the protection slot, cap relief and having a direct replacement (lets assume Vrana can replace him directly). Whatever we get for him is pretty much gravy over exposing him, so long as it's not a cap dump.

Losing all 3 of Orpik Alzner and Carlson probably means no playoffs next year, just too jarring. They'd need Orlov-Niskanen to cement itself as a top pairing, Schmidt take a step, and get a Niskanen level D to put with Schmidt.

 

[SpinningEdge]

I'd take a similar approach, but I'd be more apt to trade Carlson. He's great, but his next contract is going to be huge, and we can't afford it. He's our 2RD now, and I don't see that changing. Take a chance on Schmidt filling that spot next year. The return for Carlson will be more than what you'd get for MoJo, and Holtby coupled with a high-octane offense can weather a couple defensive holes like Pitt did last year.

As you said, swap part of the return for Carlson and/or our 1st to move Orpik's deal, then focus all your efforts on getting the D to replace them.

Losing Orpik, Carlson, and Alzner in one year would be devastating, but between our current young D, our pretty decent D prospects, and the trade return for Carlson, we'd be okay. If not, THEN you swap MoJo straight up for a quality D.

Continuity on offense and in goal, offset by a calculated, dramatic turnover in defensive dollars and personnel.

If Adam Larson returns Taylor Hall - 74 should return as good value.... and Hall value is legitimate no doubt top line talent

 

[Roughing]

Who has two thumbs and went to the last home game in December, where the Caps **** the bed in a 2-1 OT loss to Jersey?

 

[Holtbyisms]

If Adam Larson returns Taylor Hall - 74 should return as good value.... and Hall value is legitimate no doubt top line talent

We don't need a first line scorer as much as we need a top pairing defender and who trades a top pairing defender for a top pairing defender? (Besides Subban-Weber lol) Really would be irrelevant to move him for another top pairing guy. We've got somebody who already knows the team has proven to be a big game player and does pretty darn good despite the constant trainwreck of posts here about him. Carlson is in the top 2 on most teams in this league. He gets Green level hate and 90% of the time it's so far out of left field it's laughable.

 

[SpinningEdge]

We don't need a first line scorer as much as we need a top pairing defender and who trades a top pairing defender for a top pairing defender? (Besides Subban-Weber lol) Really would be irrelevant to move him for another top pairing guy. We've got somebody who already knows the team has proven to be a big game player and does pretty darn good despite the constant trainwreck of posts here about him. Carlson is in the top 2 on most teams in this league. He gets Green level hate and 90% of the time it's so far out of left field it's laughable.

He's a top pairing on most teams, yes - but my point was if Carlson wants 7 or more per and caps don't feel he's worth it - then carlsons value could return something good.

 

[Holtbyisms]

He's a top pairing on most teams, yes - but my point was if Carlson wants 7 or more per and caps don't feel he's worth it - then carlsons value could return something good.

There's like 13 guys who make 7, about half of them are bad contracts, I don't foresee Carlson getting that unless his game continues to improve. If it does, perhaps he's worth it. Last year before the injury he was poised for a contract like that. This year he started hurt but since he got healthy he's looked outstanding, then he got hurt again. So...who knows what BMac thinks about the health issues. I've always been a fan of considering longevity into contracts but I'm sure agents don't agree with that. Plus with inflation on salaries I wouldn't at all struggle to believe he'd get that when he's due. Realistically though if him staying or going is the difference of 500K or even 1M I honestly wouldn't be that butt hurt to overpay a little. Carlson on a long term deal worth 6-7 a year would be a legitimate contract for a guy who's considered your #1 and when healthy performs like it. We certainly have no one else in the organization who's going to be a top pairing guy unless you've got a ton of faith in Johansen who is often outclassed by his younger draft eligible teammate Cal Foote in the Kelowna games I've watched this year. Johansen plays second fiddle to him on the second pairing.

 

[Jags]

We certainly have no one else in the organization who's going to be a top pairing guy

Niskanen is our top RD. Carlson is #2. Yes, he'd be a #1 for many teams, but he's not for us.

Niskanen is 30. That puts him squarely in the Ovechkin/Backstrom "window" as far as age goes. We're good with him.

I'm not a Carlson hater. I'm a big fan of his. His trade value is huge. He'll absolutely get the kind of money you're talking about as a UFA, but do you really want to pay him #1 money we don't have to be a #2 here? And even if he is or ends up being better than Niskanen, it ain't by much.

We have a year left to get something for Carlson -- then we'll either have to pay him #1 money or let him walk for free.

What we could get for him could solve a lot of problems for us. He'll be hell to replace, but the return could easily be worth it.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Niskanen is our top RD. Carlson is #2. Yes, he'd be a #1 for many teams, but he's not for us.

Niskanen is 30. That puts him squarely in the Ovechkin/Backstrom "window" as far as age goes. We're good with him.

I'm not a Carlson hater. I'm a big fan of his. His trade value is huge. He'll absolutely get the kind of money you're talking about as a UFA, but do you really want to pay him #1 money we don't have to be a #2 here? And even if he is or ends up being better than Niskanen, it ain't by much.

We have a year left to get something for Carlson -- then we'll either have to pay him #1 money or let him walk for free.

What we could get for him could solve a lot of problems for us. He'll be hell to replace, but the return could easily be worth it.

To each their own but Niskanen clearly isn't a game breaker like Carlson can be when he's on his game. Niskanen does exactly what he was brought here to do, be steady, calm and play the simple game and he's overpaid by a wide margain because that's what it took to get him here. Niskanen also struggles running our powerplay. I know as a whole the PP has been a mess this year but since Green left Carlson has been the most effective in that spot than anyone else overall. Niskanen is a solid guy and a great defender with a decent set of hands but there's no way I take Niskanen over Carlson in any circumstance if I have a choice between the two. The fact is Carlson is probably due at least a couple M more a year than he's getting paid right now when he's due and he's either going to get it from us or he's getting it elsewhere. I'd rather have him here. Guys like that don't often hit the open market for a reason.

 

[Corby78]

The reason his trade stock has is so high is because teams don't trade current or future #1D. Unless your getting one back Webber/subban it's a bad idea. They are rare and hard to find. Mojo is easier to replace than a top D pairing.

 

[Holtbyisms]

The reason his trade stock has is so high is because teams don't trade current or future #1D. Unless your getting one back Webber/subban it's a bad idea. They are rare and hard to find. Mojo is easier to replace than a top D pairing.

This so much....


I mean the Niskanen to Carlson comparison is way out there. You're talking about a second pairing guy on a good team vs a top pairing guy on a good team. 20-30 point guy vs a 50-60 point guy. Name me a #1 who puts up 20-30 points a year? Huge gap between the two IMO. Could we survive with Niskanen as the #1 long term, perhaps but is it a downgrade? Definitely.

 

[EroCaps]

You really think this comes down to a simple arms race?

No, it's the underlaying passive approach to postseason success. The idea of building a team and hoping to get lucky one year is the perfect recipe for mediocrity. It's why every year a hotter, hungrier team races past them. Winning requires an all-in mentality. You've got to approach the playoffs with a mind toward decimating your opponents, not hoping the officiating and bounces go your way.

There's room on this roster for more of that.

 

[Jags]

Losing all 3 of Orpik Alzner and Carlson probably means no playoffs next year, just too jarring. They'd need Orlov-Niskanen to cement itself as a top pairing, Schmidt take a step, and get a Niskanen level D to put with Schmidt.

No reason you couldn't get a good 2RD in the Carlson deal, plus substantial futures. Use part of those futures to help move Orpik. Either target a cheaper 3LD in the Orpik deal or get one in free agency.

So the Carlson and Orpik trades could reasonably yield serviceable replacements. Schmidt and the new 3LD can fight it out, and hopefully Bowey can make the jump.

It doesn't have to cost us a playoff spot. We'd absolutely take a significant backwards step defensively, but it would help us keep our offense intact (and hopefully progressing), and we've got outstanding goaltending to help shore it up.

If not, we'll still have a bunch of the speedy, skilled wingers, and can swap one for D if we need more help.

This year is an all-in year. Next year will be more about being realistic about the future. Those speedy, skilled wingers are all performing and/or showing great potential, and they're all affordable. Carlson is our 2RD who we'll soon have to pay like a #1 guy, and he's WAY more valuable in a trade than any of those wings.

I think it's the wiser move, both in the near and distant future. Your mileage may vary.