Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[BobRouse]

Depth is likely what we are going for. But I do think we have forward depth in Hershey so I don't see us using assets for that. The D on the other hand seems like a concern.

Vrana and Sanford taking a role next year is obvious and I said as much. We are in a cap crunch DESPITE that happening as I outlined above.

Carlson has been bad this year??? HUH???? I think we clearly see what happens to our level of play without him! He's also a playoff warrior for us and always has been.

BMac may very well be waiting to see how the playoffs turn out before deciding on the RFAs like Kuz. That's what he has done up to now in his tenure and there is no reason to believe he will change his stance at this point.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

Tarik just tweeted Chandler Stephenson recalled.

 

[Langway]

Carlson has warts that it doesn't seem like he's gonna outgrow, something that strongly smells like a chronic foot issue, and the team isn't missing a beat without him right now.

But their possession numbers have dipped and the goals against have raised just the same. A fair bit of that is Chorney being a weak link relative to the level the rest typically play at but it is noteworthy. I don't think Niskanen or Orlov are adequate replacements on PP1 either.

I get walking away from Oshie and Alzner. There are warning signs with both when it comes to risk compared to market value if both are dead set on getting it. But proceeding to Carlson and Holtby is excessive. They'll have cap remedies and alternate routes that need not cut that deep. We also haven't really seen any core for youth trades under McPhee or MacLellan and I doubt it becomes MacLellan's preference. Maybe with someone like Johansson if he has a disappointing post-season in the right deal but the front office has been pretty consistent in valuing their own developed players pretty highly.

Unlike Alzner or Oshie, you'd have to trade Carlson this summer if you're not planning on keeping him. It's either extend this summer or deal. Anything else is irresponsible. That's not an asset they can let walk for free.

 

[Revelation]

But their possession numbers have dipped and the goals against have raised just the same. A fair bit of that is Chorney being a weak link relative to the level the rest typically play at but it is noteworthy. I don't think Niskanen or Orlov are adequate replacements on PP1 either.

I get walking away from Oshie and Alzner. There are warning signs with both when it comes to risk compared to market value if both are dead set on getting it. But proceeding to Carlson and Holtby is excessive. They'll have cap remedies and alternate routes that need not cut that deep. We also haven't really seen any core for youth trades under McPhee or MacLellan and I doubt it becomes MacLellan's preference. Maybe with someone like Johansson if he has a disappointing post-season in the right deal but the front office has been pretty consistent in valuing their own developed players pretty highly.

Unlike Alzner or Oshie, you'd have to trade Carlson this summer if you're not planning on keeping him. It's either extend this summer or deal. Anything else is irresponsible. That's not an asset they can let walk for free.

Obviously they're gonna take a hit going from Carlson to Chorney.

A lot rests on the playoffs, but I don't like the recurring foot injury (with him already being an average skater) and him being mediocre for pretty much half of any season. He also happens to be playing the most coveted position in hockey right now and he himself is ridiculously hyped.

If Shattenkirk gets 7x7 this offseason Carlson would be worth over 8 in comparison.

 

[twabby]

Carlson's contract is an interesting situation next season. He doesn't drive play at ES but he produces offensively and can move the puck. Also aside from Bowey (whose abilities are still unknown), I don't really see an option in Hershey as a replacement RHD. Further compounding the issue is the Capitals may be without Orlov or Schmidt next season due to expansion which really puts the Capitals in a bind.

Carlson's value on the market is likely to be huge. Whatever Shattenkirk gets this offseason plus a little more is my guess. This is one of the reasons I hope McPhee takes Beagle, Wilson, or Grubauer in the draft. Keeping Orlov and Schmidt would help ease the loss of Carlson if he wants to test the market and Washington can't afford him.

 

[twabby]

But their possession numbers have dipped and the goals against have raised just the same. A fair bit of that is Chorney being a weak link relative to the level the rest typically play at but it is noteworthy. I don't think Niskanen or Orlov are adequate replacements on PP1 either.

I think a lot of their possesson dip is Chorney, but it's also breaking up their two best possession pairings (Orlov-Niskanen and Orpik-Schmidt) in order to fit Alzner in the top pairing

Unlike Alzner or Oshie, you'd have to trade Carlson this summer if you're not planning on keeping him. It's either extend this summer or deal. Anything else is irresponsible. That's not an asset they can let walk for free.

I tend to agree here. Carlson should return a king's ransom this offseason if he's dealt and it would be crazy to let him walk in 2018 without getting anything in return. I don't think one year of Carlson is worth giving up what he could return in a trade if they decide he's not in their future.

 

[BobRouse]

Carlson is essential. We can lose guys like Oshie, Alzner and Williams but there is no way we can afford to lose Carlson unless we want to go into rebuild mode.

We will still have a shot next year so I can't see us trading Carlson at all. We will probably try to sign him throughout the year and up until July 2018

 

[twabby]

I'm spitballing but I wonder if the Stars would entertain some sort of deal surrounding Carlson + Grubauer <--> Klingberg (assuming Grubauer isn't selected by Vegas and Carlson isn't re-signed by Washington).

While Carlson is maybe a slightly more well-rounded player than Klingberg it's not a big gap overall and Klingberg is on a nice contract for 5 more seasons ($4.25M AAV) after this one and is still only in his third NHL season with room for improvement, especially defensively. Klingberg could also immediately jump into PP1 as a RHD and plenty of experience playing PP1 in Dallas.

Grubauer might be enough to bridge the gap between Klingberg and Carlson in terms of trade value as well since Dallas is in desperate need for goaltending, and if not I don't necessarily think Washington would need to add much more. Further, Dallas is in a much better position than Washington to offer Carlson a generous UFA contract so it wouldn't necessarily be a one-year rental for the Stars. Klingberg was healthy-scratched a few times this season so I don't know if there was any friction between he and the coaching staff, but it's something that maybe the Capitals could look to exploit.

It would be creative move and I'm not sure what Dallas's plans are moving forward, but it's the type of move I would consider looking at if it looks like Carlson wouldn't be re-signed.

 

[BobRouse]

Klinberg has been brutal defensively this year by all accounts. He was not good on Sat night that's for sure.

No chance the Caps do that. Zilch

 

[twabby]

Klinberg has been brutal defensively this year by all accounts. He was not good on Sat night that's for sure.

No chance the Caps do that. Zilch

It's not like Carlson is a particularly strong defensive player either.

Klingberg's advantage is his ability to drive possession at even strength, they both seem similar offensively in terms of point production (but again, Klingberg is only 24 so he has more room for improvement). Also I bet a lot of Klingberg's defensive problems are exacerbated by the two clowns in net. His advanced metrics seem to paint a better picture of his defensive play, similar to how Nate Schmidt doesn't "look" like a great defensive player but he gets the job done.

I'm not married to this trade idea but it's one that seems to make some sense for both sides and I'd hope GMBM would be willing to explore ideas similar to this if he can't re-sign Carlson this offseason.

 

[trick9]

John Klingberg makes Mike Green of past look good defensively.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

I honestly don't think next year's cap situation is as dire as some here are making it out to be. Here's a hypothetical that I don't think is farfetched:

Trade Grubauer and Orpik to Calgary for Tom McCollum (who can count for the one goalie exposed) and a pick

Give Kuznetsov and Orlov deals similar to the ones for Duchene and Carlson, so 10M total

Re-sign Connelly for 1.5M

Schmidt gets taken by Vegas

Call up 3 of Vrana/Sanford/Barber/Stephenson/O'Brien, 1 of Bowey/Lewington, and Vanecek (or sign a cheap backup for about the same price)

That gives the Caps this roster at just a shade under 62M:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-XXXX
Johansson-Kuznetsov-Burakovsky
Connelly-Eller-Vrana
Sanford-Beagle-Wilson
Barber

Orlov-Niskanen
XXXX-Carlson
XXXX-Lewington
Chorney

Holtby
Vanecek

Assuming another 3M raise in the salary cap, that's 13M in cap room for the 1RW, 2LD, and 3LD. You could give Oshie and Alzner 6M each, pick up a cheap 3rd pairing guy, and have pretty damn near the same roster next season.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I honestly don't think next year's cap situation is as dire as some here are making it out to be. Here's a hypothetical that I don't think is farfetched:

Trade Grubauer and Orpik to Calgary for Tom McCollum (who can count for the one goalie exposed) and a pick

Give Kuznetsov and Orlov deals similar to the ones for Duchene and Carlson, so 10M total

Re-sign Connelly for 1.5M

Schmidt gets taken by Vegas

Call up 3 of Vrana/Sanford/Barber/Stephenson/O'Brien, 1 of Bowey/Lewington, and Vanecek (or sign a cheap backup for about the same price)

That gives the Caps this roster at just a shade under 62M:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-XXXX
Johansson-Kuznetsov-Burakovsky
Connelly-Eller-Vrana
Sanford-Beagle-Wilson
Barber

Orlov-Niskanen
XXXX-Carlson
XXXX-Lewington
Chorney

Holtby
Vanecek

Assuming another 3M raise in the salary cap, that's 13M in cap room for the 1RW, 2LD, and 3LD. You could give Oshie and Alzner 6M each, pick up a cheap 3rd pairing guy, and have pretty damn near the same roster next season.

Backup goalie is an issue as Vanecek doesn't appear ready.

Your roster has some holes that people will pick at, but it should at least show guys like Tinner that there are options for the creative GM.

 

[Jags]

I tend to agree here. Carlson should return a king's ransom this offseason if he's dealt and it would be crazy to let him walk in 2018 without getting anything in return.

If you're open to that, then part of that king's ransom could be getting a team to take Orpik in the deal. The only way to move him without eating salary or buying him out is to package him with something valuable.

You still wouldn't want to overpay for Alzner, so you still let him walk...

Ovechkin (9.538) - Backstrom (6.7) - Oshie (5.675)
Johansson (4.5) - Kuznetsov (6.0) - Burakovsky (2.5)
Connolly (1.5) - Eller (3.5) - Vrana (0.863)
Sanford (0.875) - Beagle (1.75) - Wilson (2.0)

Orlov (3.5) - Niskanen (5.75)
Bowey (.703) - Carlson (3.967)
Orpik (5.5) - Schmidt (2.0)
Chorney (0.8)

Holtby (6.1)
Grubauer (2.0)

That's 75.8m of total cap without trading Carlson or Orpik, and it doesn't account for who Vegas will take. Some of my UFA/RFA estimates will be high/low, but it might come close to balancing out overall. Just ballparking it to give us a general idea.

Carrying only 21 roster players, that's 2.8m over today's cap. Whoever's taken by Vegas would have to be replaced, so it's not a total subtraction of salary.

That's as close to maintaining our current team as might be reasonable. If you can leverage Carlson to move Orpik's deal, too, maybe you get a good, reasonably-priced D back with futures, which would leave you room to sign the UFA D you'd need to fill out the starting roster.

You could let Oshie go and keep Williams to save cash, but Oshie leaves a way bigger hole to fill (PP1, PK, 3v3, 4v4, 25+ goals, etc).

 

[BobRouse]

I honestly don't think next year's cap situation is as dire as some here are making it out to be. Here's a hypothetical that I don't think is farfetched:

Trade Grubauer and Orpik to Calgary for Tom McCollum (who can count for the one goalie exposed) and a pick

Give Kuznetsov and Orlov deals similar to the ones for Duchene and Carlson, so 10M total

Re-sign Connelly for 1.5M

Schmidt gets taken by Vegas

Call up 3 of Vrana/Sanford/Barber/Stephenson/O'Brien, 1 of Bowey/Lewington, and Vanecek (or sign a cheap backup for about the same price)

That gives the Caps this roster at just a shade under 62M:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-XXXX
Johansson-Kuznetsov-Burakovsky
Connelly-Eller-Vrana
Sanford-Beagle-Wilson
Barber

Orlov-Niskanen
XXXX-Carlson
XXXX-Lewington
Chorney

Holtby
Vanecek

Assuming another 3M raise in the salary cap, that's 13M in cap room for the 1RW, 2LD, and 3LD. You could give Oshie and Alzner 6M each, pick up a cheap 3rd pairing guy, and have pretty damn near the same roster next season.

Why would Calgary do this tho?

They are paying Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie and Engelland about $20 million combined.

They will just be getting Wideman off their books. They have a similar style player in Engelland making too much.

I don't think Grubauer is enough bait here. I mean would YOU make that trade if you were the Flames??

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Tinner don't get sucked into the minutia, just accept that there are options.

Why would SJ trade TW for junk AND retain? You just don't know.

 

[um]

Orpik is very tradeable, especially with his solid play this year.

 

[SpinningEdge]

I honestly don't think next year's cap situation is as dire as some here are making it out to be. Here's a hypothetical that I don't think is farfetched:

Trade Grubauer and Orpik to Calgary for Tom McCollum (who can count for the one goalie exposed) and a pick

Give Kuznetsov and Orlov deals similar to the ones for Duchene and Carlson, so 10M total

Re-sign Connelly for 1.5M

Schmidt gets taken by Vegas

Call up 3 of Vrana/Sanford/Barber/Stephenson/O'Brien, 1 of Bowey/Lewington, and Vanecek (or sign a cheap backup for about the same price)

That gives the Caps this roster at just a shade under 62M:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-XXXX
Johansson-Kuznetsov-Burakovsky
Connelly-Eller-Vrana
Sanford-Beagle-Wilson
Barber

Orlov-Niskanen
XXXX-Carlson
XXXX-Lewington
Chorney

Holtby
Vanecek

Assuming another 3M raise in the salary cap, that's 13M in cap room for the 1RW, 2LD, and 3LD. You could give Oshie and Alzner 6M each, pick up a cheap 3rd pairing guy, and have pretty damn near the same roster next season.

If we lose Alzner and Orpik we go from great balanced D to super weak and non-physical D.

We don't want that. For years we needed a physical guy and that's why we overpaid so much for Orpik. If Caps lose Alzner this year - zero chance they move Orpik too. That's not a GMBM move at all...

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I think you're living in the past a bit. I've noticed Mojo much more willing to go to the front of the net and even take a bit of a beating while he's there. I'd even go as far as to say he's been one of the best screeners on the team the last year+. Just last night, Orlov's first goal likely gets saved if not for Mojo's screen.

He also seems to be stronger on the puck, and the team's move away from cycling plays towards his strength and helps mitigate any weaknesses as far as his (and others') board work goes.

We'll see how MOJO performs in the playoffs, but it's more about the cap and roster management.

MOJO's salary is a little over 4.5. We may be looking at a 2 million increase in Cap for teams for next season.

You have the following RFAs that are arbitration eligible:
-Kuznetsov currently makes 3
-Orlov 2.5
-Schmidt 800
-Grubauer 750
and you have Burakovsky 800 who's a RFA as well.

Williams and Winnik don't return that's collectively 5.5. I see that 5.5 pretty much addressing the RFA situation, even with one of those RFAs possibly going in the expansion draft.

You trade MOJO after the season, 2.5 of his 4.5 should be enough to sign Oshie for about 6.5 and the remaining cash along with the anticipated cap increase might be enough to bring Alzner back as well.

2017/18
Ovechkin - Backstrom - Oshie
Burakovsky - Kuznetsov - RW?
Vrana - Eller - Connolly
Sanford - Beagle - Wilson
vs.
Ovechkin - Backstrom - RW?
MOJO - Kuznetsov -Burakovsky
Vrana - Eller -Connolly
Sanford - Beagle - Wilson

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Why would Calgary do this tho?

They are paying Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie and Engelland about $20 million combined.

They will just be getting Wideman off their books. They have a similar style player in Engelland making too much.

I don't think Grubauer is enough bait here. I mean would YOU make that trade if you were the Flames??

Yeah, I'd do it. Grubauer's surplus value on whatever contract he gets next year should cancel out the negative value on Orpik, and it's not like the Flames are facing a cap crunch anyway. The alternative is to go UFA shopping for a starting goalie, and there's not much out there aside from Bishop (who could end up costing about as much as Orpik+Grubauer anyway, and carries a huge injury risk). For what it's worth, plenty of Flames fans on the main board have expressed interest in this sort of deal too.

And if not that deal, then trade Grubauer to one team looking for a starter (there are going to be plenty) and use the return to trade Orpik to another. Orpik's played well enough this year that he's not a total anchor. It's not gonna be as hard to move him as you think.

If we lose Alzner and Orpik we go from great balanced D to super weak and non-physical D.

We don't want that. For years we needed a physical guy and that's why we overpaid so much for Orpik. If Caps lose Alzner this year - zero chance they move Orpik too. That's not a GMBM move at all...

The whole point of that was to show that it's not beyond the realm of possibility for us to keep Alzner and Oshie.

 

[Sam Spade]

I honestly don't think next year's cap situation is as dire as some here are making it out to be. Here's a hypothetical that I don't think is farfetched:

Trade Grubauer and Orpik to Calgary for Tom McCollum (who can count for the one goalie exposed) and a pick

Give Kuznetsov and Orlov deals similar to the ones for Duchene and Carlson, so 10M total

Re-sign Connelly for 1.5M

Schmidt gets taken by Vegas

Call up 3 of Vrana/Sanford/Barber/Stephenson/O'Brien, 1 of Bowey/Lewington, and Vanecek (or sign a cheap backup for about the same price)

That gives the Caps this roster at just a shade under 62M:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-XXXX
Johansson-Kuznetsov-Burakovsky
Connelly-Eller-Vrana
Sanford-Beagle-Wilson
Barber

Orlov-Niskanen
XXXX-Carlson
XXXX-Lewington
Chorney

Holtby
Vanecek

Assuming another 3M raise in the salary cap, that's 13M in cap room for the 1RW, 2LD, and 3LD. You could give Oshie and Alzner 6M each, pick up a cheap 3rd pairing guy, and have pretty damn near the same roster next season.

This guy for GM.

 

[Langway]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-hanzal-talks-stall-canadiens-coyotes/

1. We’ve been hearing about high prices for rentals. Word is Arizona’s initial ask from Montreal for Martin Hanzal was Michael McCarron and two draft picks — one a first-rounder, the other conditional. I look at it this way: You never know until you ask. But it also tells you why Hanzal is not a Canadien. We’ll see if both teams circle back.

2. Since we’re talking about first-round draft picks, I sense there is more willingness to consider trading them in 2017. This draft is not considered to be a great one, so if it gets you a good piece, picks will be in play....

14. A few weeks ago, a couple GMs figured Washington would be an underrated match for one of Colorado’s forwards. But now, with the Capitals streaking to the top of the NHL, why would they even think about changing anything?

Arizona's ask makes the Eller deal seem like a bargain. Ironic also that Montreal is in the market for a center.

 

[EroCaps]

1. Caps dominate the regular season.

2. Management (and some fans) are loathe to mess with the "chemistry", make any bold moves.

3. Teams trailing the Caps make moves which level the field.

4. Playoff failure.

 

[Raikkonen]

1. Alzner vs Oshie. I bet Karl's demands are lower and his quality of play at the latter end of the future contract will be better. Bura's progress and Connolly's rise helped me to decide I don't consider Oshie irreplaceable now (unlike a month or so ago).

2. Too many parts moving, zero info on actual playoff performance. Can't predict the path GMBM will take.

3. I will watch games first, then just watch the moves in the end of June. No point in worrying now. Team is good, lets just win the ****ing thing. We will lose some players anyway Later.

 

[usiel]

Basically, this year is our best shot. If we don't win it this year, Ovechkin probably won't win it as a Capital if at all. Kind of a sobering thought.

So. Just. ****ing. Win.

It is definitely like this is the year to do it. Some great posts the last page or so really detailing the suckage of next year. IMHO to remain competitive you have to keep Alzner. Caps can lose some offensive firepower in the top 6. I'm expecting Oshie and Williams to not be here next year.