4th Overall the Senators Take Brady Tkachuk

[Sting]

Those complaining about goal totals...put him in the OHL and watch the numbers this year. I don't think anyone would be second guessing then...

I personally think AHL is the best option here. Not only does he play against men, he learns the Ottawa system, forms chemistry with eventual NHLer's, and has access to better training.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Those complaining about goal totals...put him in the OHL and watch the numbers this year. I don't think anyone would be second guessing then...

I personally think AHL is the best option here. Not only does he play against men, he learns the Ottawa system, forms chemistry with eventual NHLer's, and has access to better training.

I would love that....if we had gotten a good development system in place in the AHL 2-3 years ago.

It looks like they're trying to put something together this summer to make Belleville a better place for development, but I have a strong feeling the first year (of this program) is going to have a lot of wrinkles to iron out. Not sure if I want Brady to be a part of the "experimental" first year group.

More I think of it, the more attractive the NCAA option is for him.

 

[Sensung]

If Brady ever puts up good goal production, the doubts will lessen. Until then, they are legitimate.

 

[JD1]

Those complaining about goal totals...put him in the OHL and watch the numbers this year. I don't think anyone would be second guessing then...

I personally think AHL is the best option here. Not only does he play against men, he learns the Ottawa system, forms chemistry with eventual NHLer's, and has access to better training.

access to better training....

about 6 months back (can't remember if I read it or heard an analyst on TV comment on it) ...anyway somebody was saying that the US college route is a better route for many young men than the AHL, we're talking 20 - 22 kinda thing, because the players played less games and travelled less which resulted in more practice and far more gym time.

I'm no expert and certainly thought of the AHL route as superior but I remember that comment and thought it was interesting

I vaguely recollect it might have been brought up in the context of a Christian Wolanin discussion

 

[slamigo]

I remember Simmer talking about how the college route is better than the AHL. Basically it’s the schedule, lack of practice, the travel and the downtime. AHL is a true grind. Three games on weekends and then Monday off, Tuesday practice and by Thursday they’re heading back out for weekend games. And the kids are left alone in small towns with nothing to do in their downtime. It’s about learning to be a pro player.
College is all about development. When you’re at college on scholarship, the university owns your time. My cousin played football on scholarship in the states. Everything was on a schedule. You ate when they said, slept when they said, worked out when they said, went to team meetings, went to class, etc and had very little down time. He packed on tons of muscle.
I think BT would be better off developing in college.

 

[Icelevel]

If Brady ever puts up good goal production, the doubts will lessen. Until then, they are legitimate.

And same goes for every prospect ever

 

[Sensung]

And same goes for every prospect ever

Who only scored 8 goals and has never demonstrated elite goalscoring.

Players like Zadina for example don't have the same questions...

 

[Icelevel]

You guys see what Brady looked like in prospects camp wearing street clothes? Kid is as skinny as a slat cat. Unless he can put on a ton of muscle in a month, it would be irresponsible to put him out there against NHLers.

Just needs to put on 30 lbs of muscle. Plenty of time before the season starts. No problem

 

[Icelevel]

Who only scored 8 goals and has never demonstrated elite goalscoring.

Players like Zadina for example don't have the same questions...

Right there are zero doubts about zadina scoring in the nhl. Got it

 

[Sensung]

Right there are zero doubts about zadina scoring in the nhl. Got it

Zero doubt, no.

WAY less doubt than 8 goal man though.

 

[JD1]

I remember Simmer talking about how the college route is better than the AHL. Basically it’s the schedule, lack of practice, the travel and the downtime. AHL is a true grind. Three games on weekends and then Monday off, Tuesday practice and by Thursday they’re heading back out for weekend games. And the kids are left alone in small towns with nothing to do in their downtime. It’s about learning to be a pro player.
College is all about development. When you’re at college on scholarship, the university owns your time. My cousin played football on scholarship in the states. Everything was on a schedule. You ate when they said, slept when they said, worked out when they said, went to team meetings, went to class, etc and had very little down time. He packed on tons of muscle.
I think BT would be better off developing in college.

the way you worded that sounds exactly like what I heard. maybe it was Simmer on 1200 I heard say that

 

[BigRig4]

Who only scored 8 goals and has never demonstrated elite goalscoring.

Players like Zadina for example don't have the same questions...

Tkachuk led his team in scoring the previous season.

 

[Sensung]

Tkachuk led his team in scoring the previous season.

How many goals in how many games?

 

[Hale The Villain]

It's not shocking that Tkachuk isn't much of a goal scorer - kid doesn't have a great shot. Can't beat goalies clean like a Zadina-type sniper. Scores most of his goals within a few feet of the net.

He'll definitely score at least 10-20G a year in the NHL because of how much time he spends around the net, but don't expect 30G a year from him or anything like that.

 

[Sensung]

It's not shocking that Tkachuk isn't much of a goal scorer - kid doesn't have a great shot. Can't beat goalies clean like a Zadina-type sniper. Scores most of his goals within a few feet of the net.

He'll definitely score at least 10-20G a year in the NHL because of how much time he spends around the net, but don't expect 30G a year from him or anything like that.

Well now that he's a Sens prospect I'll be cheering for him to break out!

 

[Langdon Alger]

Matthew Tkachuk’s numbers in the OHL were ridiculous in his draft year. If Brady plays in London this year could he put up similar numbers?

 

[Ice-Tray]

We've seen lots of OHL guys who could score from anywhere, like Puemple, bust at the NHL level. Scoring is definitely not a guarantee to NHL success.

 

[slamigo]

We've seen lots of OHL guys who could score from anywhere, like Puemple, bust at the NHL level. Scoring is definitely not a guarantee to NHL success.

So true. And we already have a few of those types in Luchuk and Perron.

 

[BigRig4]

How many goals in how many games?

12 goals in 24 games. Outstanding numbers. 1 less than Keller and 1 more than Roslovic, except Tkachuk was draft -1, instead of being in his draft year like those two. Many other great comparables but don't have time to write it out.

 

[Hale The Villain]

12 goals in 24 games. Outstanding numbers. 1 less than Keller and 1 more than Roslovic, except Tkachuk was draft -1, instead of being in his draft year like those two. Many other great comparables but don't have time to write it out.

Not outstanding numbers whatsoever.

Here's a history of 17YR old USNTDP forwards production over the last decade:

17YR Old USNTDP Forward Scoring.xlsx

Brady ranked 23rd in terms of PPG and 20th in terms of goals, despite being the 3rd highest drafted player on the list.

And draft-1 doesn't matter when you are a late birthday - the same age (17) as the other comparables.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Zadina fell to 6, there's a good chance that he's not the player folks around here think he'll be. I suspect that we're going to be real happy with the pick.

 

[Hale The Villain]

And as far as his 18YR old college production ranks among other 1st round picks, he's also 23rd in PPG, despite being the 5th highest drafted player on the list:

1st RD 18YR Old NCAA Forward Stats.xlsx

If I were to extend this to all drafted 18YR old forwards, he'd fall even further down the list.

Production isn't everything, but it's a pretty solid indicator of future offensive production. His stats at 17 and 18 don't suggest he's a future star forward - more of a complimentary offensive guy, and I think the eye test confirms that.

 

[slamigo]

Pedigree means something as well. BT has the genetics and sustained training/exposure that it takes to make an impact in the NHL.

 

[BigRig4]

Not outstanding numbers whatsoever.

Here's a history of 17YR old USNTDP forwards production over the last decade:

17YR Old USNTDP Forward Scoring.xlsx

Brady ranked 23rd in terms of PPG and 20th in terms of goals, despite being the 3rd highest drafted player on the list.

And draft-1 doesn't matter when you are a late birthday - the same age (17) as the other comparables.

Super interesting, thanks for posting a more in-depth comparison!

 

[Hale The Villain]

Pedigree means something as well. BT has the genetics and sustained training/exposure that it takes to make an impact in the NHL.

Focusing too much on pedigree and bloodlines is how you select Jordan Staal above the likes of Toews, Backstrom and Kessel.

Intangibles like those should be secondary considerations in evaluating a potential top 5 pick compared to hockey sense, skill and tools, or else you're asking for disappointment.