4th Overall the Senators Take Brady Tkachuk

[Hale The Villain]

Super interesting, thanks for posting a more in-depth comparison!

I have those done up for pretty much all the junior leagues for 17 and 18YR old forwards and D.

Helps put players' production in perspective.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

So true. And we already have a few of those types in Luchuk and Perron.

I remember when quite a few people felt Perron was gonna be great

 

[Hale The Villain]

I remember when quite a few people felt Perron was gonna be great

Yeah I was always pretty skeptical. Being small, skinny and slow is a death sentence for most forwards.

 

[Ice-Tray]

And as far as his 18YR old college production ranks among other 1st round picks, he's also 23rd in PPG, despite being the 5th highest drafted player on the list:

1st RD 18YR Old NCAA Forward Stats.xlsx

If I were to extend this to all drafted 18YR old forwards, he'd fall even further down the list.

Production isn't everything, but it's a pretty solid indicator of future offensive production. His stats at 17 and 18 don't suggest he's a future star forward - more of a complimentary offensive guy, and I think the eye test confirms that.

Your confirmation bias confirms that dude, nothing else.

His performances amongst his peers shows a star power forward. Being amongst the youngest kids in his first year of college, amongst men, is not exactly a stat line you should marry yourself to.

Look, I get you're disappointed because you wanted another player, but it's done. No amount of cherry picking stats, or favourable analysis is going to make a lick of difference, besides making you look inexplicably sore.

We all know that stats aren't the be all end all, and we know that junior scoring doesn't often translate to the AHL or NHL. What we do know is that we picked a consensus top player in the draft, while the guy that many would have preferred dropped to 6th.

At this point only their play going forward can speak for them, and since we picked BT, fans should get on board because believe it or not, there are no points given in this world for betting against your team, and no points gained for hoping your personal choice ends up the better player.

This is fandom, and sports entertainment, we're supposed to support our guys, be homers sometimes, irrational sometimes, and not make a habit of constantly hedging our bets against our squad. People seem to assume that they are being rational and level headed, but really it's hedging against our pick so that you can feel good if you're right or wrong. In this case there really isn't any solid reason to hedge against BT given that he was universally pegged for top 4 pick, with many respected professionals picking him top 3.

The question shouldn't be "what about his college stats?", it should be "what do all of these pro scouts see in him that would make him a top 3-4 pick in spite of his low goals?" Because from the looks of it, few were rating Zadina over him regardless of his junior scoring prowess.

There should be some excitement about this player, because he clearly has a lot to show us. Get on board, stop trying to be 'right' over being a Sens fan.

I hope this doesn't come across too harshly Hale, I just think that this is a player that the whole fanbase can get behind and be proud of picking. There's nothing wrong with being a bit bullish about our prospects instead of constantly pumping those on other teams. Sens Pride!

 

[Hale The Villain]

Your confirmation bias confirms that dude, nothing else.

His performances amongst his peers shows a star power forward. Being amongst the youngest kids in his first year of college, amongst men, is not exactly a stat line you should marry yourself to.

Look, I get you're disappointed because you wanted another player, but it's done. No amount of cherry picking stats, or favourable analysis is going to make a lick of difference, besides making you look inexplicably sore.

We all know that stats aren't the be all end all, and we know that junior scoring doesn't often translate to the AHL or NHL. What we do know is that we picked a consensus top player in the draft, while the guy that many would have preferred dropped to 6th.

At this point only their play going forward can speak for them, and since we picked BT, fans should get on board because believe it or not, there are no points given in this world for betting against your team, and no points gained for hoping your personal choice ends up the better player.

This is fandom, and sports entertainment, we're supposed to support our guys, be homers sometimes, irrational sometimes, and not make a habit of constantly hedging our bets against our squad. People seem to assume that they are being rational and level headed, but really it's hedging against our pick so that you can feel good if you're right or wrong. In this case there really isn't any solid reason to hedge against BT given that he was universally pegged for top 4 pick, with many respected professionals picking him top 3.

The question shouldn't be "what about his college stats?", it should be "what do all of these pro scouts see in him that would make him a top 3-4 pick in spite of his low goals?" Because from the looks of it, few were rating Zadina over him regardless of his junior scoring prowess.

There should be some excitement about this player, because he clearly has a lot to show us. Get on board, stop trying to be 'right' over being a Sens fan.

I used to be like you. I used to jump on anyone who criticized a decision made by the team, and I considered myself a good fan for doing so. Time and maturity has changed that.

I'm not going to pretend that Tkachuk was a good pick because we took him. I'd rather be accurate in judgements about the decisions of this hockey club than blindly support anything they do in the name of being a good fan.

I'll voice my concerns when they make a decision I disagree with (like selecting Tkachuk 4th) and offer praise when they do something I agree with (like trading down and getting JBD and Tychonick at 26 and 48).

 

[Langdon Alger]

Focusing too much on pedigree and bloodlines is how you select Jordan Staal above the likes of Toews, Backstrom and Kessel.

Intangibles like those should be secondary considerations in evaluating a potential top 5 pick compared to hockey sense, skill and tools, or else you're asking for disappointment.

I think part of why Kessel went fifth was because he had perceived attitude problems. Also I think a team would rather draft a centre than a winger if given the choice. Montreal passed on Zadina to grab a centre.

I understand your point though. Sometimes you pass on the more talented guy, and you can regret that down the road. I don’t think Pittsburgh necessarily regrets passing on Staal though, they did win a cup with him after all. This isn’t like taking Benoit Pouliot one pick before Carey Price.

 

[aragorn]

IMO there is no question that the Sens could have used either guy in Tkachuk or Zadina, they needed the skills of both those players. The fact that they chose Tkachuk may mean that they thought the team could use a lot more of that kind of player than the other & I agree with them because I keep mentioning the same thing. Zadina could turn into a better goal scorer, I have said this a million times & it doesn't matter to me, if Tkachuk can help us win more games which IMO is much more important than any individual scoring. Winning games is more important than winning scoring titles.

 

[Langdon Alger]

IMO there is no question that the Sens could have used either guy in Tkachuk or Zadina, they needed the skills of both those players. The fact that they chose Tkachuk may mean that they thought the team could use a lot more of that kind of player than the other & I agree with them because I keep mentioning the same thing. Zadina could turn into a better goal scorer, I have said this a million times & it doesn't matter to me, if Tkachuk can help us win more games which IMO is much more important than any individual scoring. Winning games is more important than winning scoring titles.

You know, one could argue scoring goals does in fact help teams win games.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I think part of why Kessel went fifth was because he had perceived attitude problems. Also I think a team would rather draft a centre than a winger if given the choice. Montreal passed on Zadina to grab a centre.

I understand your point though. Sometimes you pass on the more talented guy, and you can regret that down the road. I don’t think Pittsburgh necessarily regrets passing on Staal though, they did win a cup with him after all. This isn’t like taking Benoit Pouliot one pick before Carey Price.

Intangibles clouding the decision making process again. You don't pass on a talent like Kessel for Staal (who had under a PPG in the OHL in his draft year) because of supposed attitude issues. The winger versus center aspect is a legit consideration for most teams, but probably shouldn't have been one for Pittsburgh, given that they already had Crosby and Malkin.

I think Pittsburgh should absolutely regret selecting Staal at 2nd OVR, even if they won a cup with him. When they won the cup in 2009 he had 49P/82GP in the regular season and 9P/24gP in the playoffs. Played a valuable role for them for sure, but meanwhile Toews had 69P/82GP in the regular season and 13P/17GP in the playoffs, Backstrom had 88P/82GP in the regular season and 15P/14GP in the playoffs, and Kessel had 60P/70GP on the Leafs (who knows how many goals and points he would have put up playing with Crosby/Malkin that year).

If they hadn't given so much weight to Staal's bloodlines/pedigree/intangibles/mature game and had instead selected a more talented player in Toews, Backstrom or Kessel, maybe they would have won more than 1 cup between 2008 and 2013 (when Staal was traded). At the very least they would have been able to get much more in return for Toews/Backstrom/Kessel than they got for Staal (Dumoulin, Sutter, Pouliot).

Really hope I'm wrong on this one, but I think Tkachuk was a similar pick, in that he is absolutely going to be a good player in the NHL, but doesn't have as much upside as other players drafted after him. Would have been real happy with him in the 8-10 range, but not at 4th OVR. Just have to hope that we don't get burned for focusing on the wrong attributes (bloodlines, pedigree, intangibles) like Pittsburgh did.

 

[aragorn]

You know, one could argue scoring goals does in fact help teams win games.

Of course they could & one could also argue that all of the other important details also in fact, help teams to win games. Both are important is my point & Ottawa only had one pick & they chose one type of player over the other which I assume they valued more at this time. Of course, they may not have known they were about to trade Hoffman at the time.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Intangibles clouding the decision making process again. You don't pass on a talent like Kessel for Staal (who had under a PPG in the OHL in his draft year) because of supposed attitude issues. The winger versus center aspect is a legit consideration for most teams, but probably shouldn't have been one for Pittsburgh, given that they already had Crosby and Malkin.

I think Pittsburgh should absolutely regret selecting Staal at 2nd OVR, even if they won a cup with him. When they won the cup in 2009 he had 49P/82GP in the regular season and 9P/24gP in the playoffs. Played a valuable role for them for sure, but meanwhile Toews had 69P/82GP in the regular season and 13P/17GP in the playoffs, Backstrom had 88P/82GP in the regular season and 15P/14GP in the playoffs, and Kessel had 60P/70GP on the Leafs (who knows how many goals and points he would have put up playing with Crosby/Malkin that year).

If they hadn't given so much weight to Staal's bloodlines/pedigree/intangibles/mature game and had instead selected a more talented player in Toews, Backstrom or Kessel, maybe they would have won more than 1 cup between 2008 and 2013 (when Staal was traded). At the very least they would have been able to get much more in return for Toews/Backstrom than they got for Staal (Dumoulin, Sutter, Pouliot).

I think Tkachuk was a similar pick, in that he is absolutely going to be a good player in the NHL, but doesn't have as much upside as other players drafted after him. Would have been real happy with him in the 8-10 range, but not at 4th OVR. Just have to hope that we don't get burned for focusing on the wrong attributes (bloodlines, pedigree, intangibles) like Pittsburgh did.

They ended up with Kessel anyway! Haha. You make a good point though, they must have been tempted to pick Kessel and play him with Crosby.

I dunno, I mean you have to remember that Staal was on the third line in Pittsburgh. Toews and Backstrom played on their teams top lines and played with better linemates. Backstrom has Ovie, Toews had Kane, Staal had Talbot and Kennedy. They were very deep up the middle during the back to back appearances in the finals in 08 and 09. Not as good on the wing though.

Either way, it can’t be seen as a huge mistake in my mind. Staal is still a fine player. This isn’t like picking Lee over Kopitar.

 

[JungleBeat]

Of course they could & one could also argue that all of the other important details also in fact, help teams to win games. Both are important is my point & Ottawa only had one pick & they chose one type of player over the other which I assume they valued more at this time.

They chose intangibles over skills which is definitely the wrong choice.

Would Tage Thompson or Luke Kunin go top five in the draft? Definitely not, and Tkachuk projects similarly to both guys.

 

[Langdon Alger]

They chose intangibles over skills which is definitely the wrong choice.

I agree, especially when you have the 4th overall pick. We’ll see what happens in the future, but I think a lot of people feel right now like we made the wrong choice.

 

[aragorn]

They chose intangibles over skills which is definitely the wrong choice.

Again, that's your opinion but the NHL experts paid to make these choices saw it very differently than you & everything that I have read about Tkachuk tells me that he is a very skilled player which is also why he was ranked so high by so many professional organizations. To ignore that is definitely the wrong choice. If Ottawa didn't pick him the next team would have so this argument that he didn't belong there is ridiculous & misleading.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Again, that's your opinion but the NHL experts paid to make these choices saw it very differently than you & everything that I have read about Tkachuk tells me that he is a very skilled player which is also why he was ranked so high by so many professional organizations. To ignore that is definitely the wrong choice. If Ottawa didn't pick him the next team would have so this argument that he didn't belong there is ridiculous & misleading.

Still whining over Tkachuk ... throw up stats , assume development is linear, disregard anything that would work against your theory, assume physical maturity is equal... babies

 

[JungleBeat]

Pedigree means something as well. BT has the genetics and sustained training/exposure that it takes to make an impact in the NHL.

Could also mean that he has a low ceiling as well due to having world class training from a young age. Compare that to a guy like Mittlestadt who is self made from training in high school during his draft year, the guy is the limit for him.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I agree, especially when you have the 4th overall pick. We’ll see what happens in the future, but I think a lot of people feel right now like we made the wrong choice.

Anyone who tells you the Sens were wrong is out to lunch.

He was picked this summer and has never played pro. We won't know if it was wrong for years.

Even if Tkachuk has a bad draft +1 and Zadina has an incredible one, that's still too early to say the Sens were wrong (or right for that matter).

 

[Sensung]

Anyone who tells you the Sens were wrong is out to lunch.

He was picked this summer and has never played pro. We won't know if it was wrong for years.

Even if Tkachuk has a bad draft +1 and Zadina has an incredible one, that's still too early to say the Sens were wrong (or right for that matter).

Which quite a few posters are presently doing.

I hope Tkachuk ends up the best player in the draft. Doesn't mean anyone is wrong for pointing out his lackluster stats to this point as a cause for concern.

And I can't speak for the rest of you, but I consider the board truly blessed to have Coladin, Count and Ice-Tray here to teach us how to be proper fans!

 

[Daffy]

According to Mike Morreale, Tkachuk will decide between returning to Boston or signing with the Senators by August 12th.

 

[Rand0m]

According to Mike Morreale, Tkachuk will decide between returning to Boston or signing with the Senators by August 12th.

If EM is still the owner, he’s for sure returning to Boston this year, why would he want to be part of this mess? He basically be the only “improvement” the 30th place team made.

 

[bert]

If EM is still the owner, he’s for sure returning to Boston this year, why would he want to be part of this mess? He basically be the only “improvement” the 30th place team made.

No matter who is the owner the only places he should be playing are BU and London he clearly has lots of development to do. No one here knows what he is going to be but we do have a pretty good idea that if he does play on the Ottawa Senators next year the chances of him developing to the peak of his potential are much lower than if he continues to develop and play against players his own age.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Well now that he's a Sens prospect I'll be cheering for him to break out!

Exactly.

Bottom line, we all want our kids to turn into the best players possible.

Heck, most of the kids we pick from year to year aren't my first choice......but they turn into the first choice after putting on our jersey!

 

[Solarion]

While this pick won't turn into Lazar/Mantha 2.0 because BT is > Curtis Lazar, if I'm Ottawa I'm taking Zadina off the boards at 4. Brady is good, and will likely have a good NHL career, Zadina has a significantly higher ceiling imo.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

While this pick won't turn into Lazar/Mantha 2.0 because BT is > Curtis Lazar, if I'm Ottawa I'm taking Zadina off the boards at 4. Brady is good, and will likely have a good NHL career, Zadina has a significantly higher ceiling imo.

So? Who the hell cares about that kid now?

 

[Solarion]

...ummm anyone that loves great hockey? Is this a trick question?