Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

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Triumph

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Splitting the difference in this debate (and really no idea why it's being had here), I don't think Fitzgerald is at all panicky about the state of the forwards. He hasn't brought anyone in who's upped their game but he also has not had to do that - the forwards did just fine on their own. Hyman and Reinhart have gotten better but both had career years this season and I wouldn't expect either guy to replicate what they've done, or even come close - I'd expect both guys to score 35 goals per 82.

I think Fitzgerald is confident in the rest of the team; he is not confident in net, and that may lead him to trade the pick. I do think he is fired if he doesn't make the playoffs in 2024-25, but I also imagine he is quite confident that he will make them. It's not hard to look at Washington and the Islanders and think that these are two teams on the downslope.
 

Guadana

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The draft rankings video podcast I'm featured on is up. I warn you all it's really long haha.

I come on at about the 25 minute mark, if that helps shorten things. I think we start discussing the actual prospects is about the 46 minute mark, mostly because I'm bad at knowing when to shut up. If you want to know how weird I am, the 25-46 minute might be funny to watch.


It takes 3-4 days to watch it. It would be better if I spent my free time on your podcast, not on reading "compete now, hurry-hurry, trade the pick no matter what!" comments.
Its very nice you are comparing players often, that you described your vision before talking about prospects - there were less questions than people could have after listening about one great player and another great player and one more another great player - if both are good, more smartest is winning, dont forget about skating and compete level. Nice description - simple and very wisdom.
I would say the only thing that was really bad is your desire to say "my ...ish is bad, thats how you should name him". It was cruel and inhuman, you looked like a barbarian-like evil interlocutor. You probably attack people in the park with a knife in your normal life and I believe you would not say thank when people hold the door for you.
 
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My3Sons

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Splitting the difference in this debate (and really no idea why it's being had here), I don't think Fitzgerald is at all panicky about the state of the forwards. He hasn't brought anyone in who's upped their game but he also has not had to do that - the forwards did just fine on their own. Hyman and Reinhart have gotten better but both had career years this season and I wouldn't expect either guy to replicate what they've done, or even come close - I'd expect both guys to score 35 goals per 82.

I think Fitzgerald is confident in the rest of the team; he is not confident in net, and that may lead him to trade the pick. I do think he is fired if he doesn't make the playoffs in 2024-25, but I also imagine he is quite confident that he will make them. It's not hard to look at Washington and the Islanders and think that these are two teams on the downslope.
I just don't see Fitz getting fired if the team struggles short of him doing something reckless. NJ has that group think approach and I am skeptical that moves are made without input from analytics and scouting and blessed by ownership. Fitz is as much where he is because he can work within those parameters which we all saw Shero ultimately bristled and was asked to leave. NJ needs a specific sort of GM and there is no sure thing out there that will do any better than Fitz. I don't doubt that goalies aside, this past season is seen internally as simply a season lost to too many injuries. I mean look at Vanacek's record. As bad as his number were, before the team completely imploded he was still winning games. He was 17-9 with an 890 sv percentage. That will be the internal story most likely. Especially when you look at the late season performance of both Allen and Kahkonen who both played well and lost. Fitz doesn't speak like someone sweating and none of the media insiders have said anything about NJ to spark any unhappiness with the team and management so I think he's still got some leash. Again, I'm not convinced the owners are nearly as dialed in on a daily basis as they were in years past. They have much bigger fish to fry.
 

StevenToddIves

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It takes 3-4 days to watch it. It would be better if I spent my free time on your podcast, not on reading "compete now, hurry-hurry, trade the pick no matter what!" comments.
Its very nice you are comparing players often, that you described your vision before talking about prospects - there were less questions than people could have after listening about one great player and another great player and one more another great player - if both are good, more smartest is winning, dont forget about skating and compete level. Nice description - simple and very wisdom.
I would say the only thing that was really bad is your desire to say "my ...ish is bad, thats how you should name him". It was cruel and inhuman, you looked like a barbarian-like evil interlocutor. You probably attack people in the park with a knife in your normal life and I believe you would not say thank when people hold the door for you.
You are correct in 100% of your assumptions about how I live my day-to-day life.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Yeah, this was a very interesting read as the feedback was all over the place. But like you said, it's a group of 8-12 guys that the scouts and execs all seem to like to varying degrees.

Lot of varying opinions on the order of the top defensemen and the best forwards after Celebrini. Generally speaking, there were concerns about Eiserman and the goalies as a whole.

Given our draft spot, the responses to the questions below seem most relevant:

After Celebrini, the big story in this draft has been around the defensemen. After a historically poor defense class in the 2023 NHL Draft, this is shaping into one of the better defense groups in recent memory. It’s possible to see five or even six defensemen picked in the top 10.

So who is the best defenseman of the group? Many scouts think it’s Michigan State’s Artyom Levshunov, who is 6-2, mobile and had a huge freshman season, or the 6-7, highly athletic Anton Silayev, who played very well for Torpedo in the KHL. But Sam Dickinson from London who is 6-3 and gets a lot of love. Denver’s Zeev Buium and Saginaw’s Zayne Parekh put up monster offensive numbers and Calgary’s 6-3 defender Carter Yakemchuk got a lot of love too. I asked scouts who their preference would be.

Scout 1:
“Parekh could be the next Quinn Hughes, the next Erik Karlsson if he hits. He has special skill and hockey sense. The other guys in this draft may be safer — they’ll give you 22 minutes a night. You could miss with him for sure, but he could be special.”

Scout 2: “Silayev is a freak. He has star written all over him. If he were in North America he would have challenged Celebrini all season for the No. 1 prospect.”

Scout 3: “Yakemchuk can be a No. 1 defenseman. He’s big, mean, athletic, and has a ton of natural offensive abilities. He’s a guy you build a winner around.”

Executive 1: “On pure talent, it would be Silayev, but I don’t know if I could call that name given the KHL risks as opposed to one of the other studs available. Levshunov has everything you want in a potential No. 1 defenseman. He’s dominated college hockey after being so good as an underage player in the USHL.”

Executive 2: “Levshunov. Worst case scenario you’re getting a better-skating John Klingberg. Best case you’re getting a star.”

Executive 3: “Silayev is so tantalizing. He’s such a good skater for a guy his size. He’s very physical. He can move pucks. He has superstar potential. You can’t find someone like him other than the draft.”

Scout 4: “Levshunov is the guy. Don’t overthink it. He’s tall, mobile, very smart, can run a pro power play, has some bite in him. He’s going to be the No. 2 or 3 overall pick.”

Scout 5: “Yakemchuk scored 30 goals, is 6-3 and skates well. I’ve rarely seen him have a bad game and often he makes an impact.”

Scout 6: “Dickinson doesn’t have a miss factor. I think worst case you’re getting a top-four-minute-eating big defenseman who can fly. If he really hits and there’s some offense the high side is an impactful NHL defender.”

Executive 4: “Levshunov is as complete as you can get. He was a dominant college player from the get-go. He has no weakness. He was playing big minutes at big times. Silayev is right there with him although not as much offense and Parekh/Yakemchuk are behind those two for me.”

Scout 7: “It would be real close for me between Levshunov, Yakemchuk and Dickinson, and depending what day I wake up I have a different one at the top. I’ve entertained Buium as well. Silayev looks great but we never saw him live so it’s tough to feel confident in putting a guy that high on your list.”

Scout 8: “I only watched the players in USA, but I keep seeing Levshunov ranked very high, and I didn’t even think he was the best defense prospect in college. Buium was way better when I saw him. Levshunov is very good, but I thought Buium was an impactful college defenseman all season.”

Scout 9: “I have the least concerns about Yakemchuk. He’s consistently competitive and he creates a ton of offense. I feel he defends better than Levshunov, who would be No. 2 for me.”

Scout 10: “It came down to Buium or Levshunov for me and I leaned Buium. Levshunov started off great, but I didn’t love his postseason play. Buium was impactful from the get-go and right into the important games as well.”

Executive 5: “I’m between Buium or Parekh and gave the edge to Parekh. Buium defends better, but he doesn’t have the type of hockey sense Parekh does. That’s not to take away from Buium — he’s super smart, he makes a lot of plays — but Parekh sees the game at a whole different level.”

Scout 11: “It’s clearly Levshunov. He looks like a future star. He is going No. 2 to Chicago or No. 3 to Anaheim, no questions asked.”


Just as there is a lack of consensus on the best defenseman in the draft, there is a lack of consensus on who is the next best forward in this draft after Celebrini. You have the three WHL forwards in Spokane’s Berkly Catton, who is dynamic but 5-foot-10, the competitive goal scorer Tij Iginla, and the 6-3 center in Lindstrom who can fly and is highly physical. There is the dynamic 5-11 SKA winger Ivan Demidov. And then you have 6-2 winger Beckett Sennecke, who was lights out in the OHL playoffs.

Scout 1:
“With Lindstrom, best case you’re getting a legit No. 1 center. I think even if you miss on Lindstrom and he’s a third-line center, he’s a type of third-line center a GM is ecstatic to have, the kind that winning teams have in the playoffs.”

Executive 1: “I do have a concern on Lindstrom that you’re just getting a second-line two-way guy. His tools are outstanding but I don’t see the high-end skill and sense to score a lot in the NHL. They’re small but my lean is to Catton or Demidov because they have so much offense.”

Executive 2: “Catton looks like a can’t-miss top-line forward. He could be a first-line center. I don’t say this lightly about 5-10 forwards, because so few of them can stay in the middle, but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a 1C in the NHL.”

Executive 3: “I’d take Catton or Iginla. They’re highly skilled guys who compete, play fast, put the puck in the net and were excellent in the WHL. Give me a break where all the lists have Demidov. He’s lighting up the MHL, but that league is so bad. Michkov was great versus men over there and went seventh.”

Executive 4: “Iginla has a lot of pro elements to his game. He’s super skilled and can score, but he’s detailed, he competes hard, he gets offense in the tough areas of the ice. He’s not that big yet, but you look at the dad and you’re hoping when Tij fills out he’s going to be a handful to deal with. The trajectory he’s on is pointed straight up as well.”

Scout 2: “It’s Lindstrom for us. You may be getting a second-line center, but he’s a second-line center who plays super hard, is a great skater and your coaches will be able to rely on.”

Executive 5: “I can see the arguments for Catton and Sennecke but I’d pick Demidov because he’s slightly more dynamic offensively than the other guys. Sennecke has more of a power element. Catton is a complete player offensively — he has no weaknesses — but Demidov can make so many plays and is high-end with the puck. Demidov doesn’t lead with speed, but is great east-west although he doesn’t skate like the other two. Lindstrom would be fourth for me.”

Executive 6: “The body of work would go to Demidov. The pure physical tools would make you pick Lindstrom. The best player in the last six months would be Sennecke, and he would be my lean.”

Executive 7: “The disrespect I see for Catton is crazy. He scored 110 points, Captain Canada at the Hlinka where he dominated, is a dynamic play-driving center. If he were two inches taller he’s the no questions asked No. 2 pick.”

Executive 8: “Demidov. He’s just dynamic, he’s the clear No. 2 forward for me. Then it would be between Lindstrom or Iginla.”

Scout 3: “Demidov has a chance to be the next great Russian star in the NHL. He’s a game breaker.”

Scout 4: “I would probably take the big guy in Lindstrom. The skating, the heaviness, the offense, it’s all very appealing. I like Catton and Iginla but I don’t see special small-guy traits in them.”

Scout 5: “It’s clearly Sennecke for me. He has the potential to be a game breaker. He’s big, he’s fast, he has elite skill and processing, even has some bite in him. I get the concerns on his production, but you watch the last 2-3 months of his season, he looked like a star.”
Yup -- this about sums it up. "The consensus says there is no consensus".
 

My3Sons

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Yup -- this about sums it up. "The consensus says there is no consensus".
No narrow consensus but my impression is there are about 12-15 players that seem to be seen with more confidence than the rest. What struck me is how much support there is for Catton as a Jack Hughes sort of center. That and Sennecke's second half as being a big differentiator for him. We will never know what teams were surveyed for this but we didn't see Brandsegg Nygard discussed. That suggests to me he's seen as a bit outside that top group. I'd really be looking for a bit of a trade down if I'm Fitz. Not to the late 20s but there will be well regarded players to about 20 it seems. If NJ could add a second and select 14-17 anyway that would be a good outcome as I see it.
 

Monsieur Verdoux

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No narrow consensus but my impression is there are about 12-15 players that seem to be seen with more confidence than the rest. What struck me is how much support there is for Catton as a Jack Hughes sort of center. That and Sennecke's second half as being a big differentiator for him. We will never know what teams were surveyed for this but we didn't see Brandsegg Nygard discussed. That suggests to me he's seen as a bit outside that top group. I'd really be looking for a bit of a trade down if I'm Fitz. Not to the late 20s but there will be well regarded players to about 20 it seems. If NJ could add a second and select 14-17 anyway that would be a good outcome as I see it.
Yeah, if they are interested in MBN. It's also possible, and it's a real possibility, that they are interested in someone else.
 

Guadana

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No narrow consensus but my impression is there are about 12-15 players that seem to be seen with more confidence than the rest. What struck me is how much support there is for Catton as a Jack Hughes sort of center. That and Sennecke's second half as being a big differentiator for him. We will never know what teams were surveyed for this but we didn't see Brandsegg Nygard discussed. That suggests to me he's seen as a bit outside that top group. I'd really be looking for a bit of a trade down if I'm Fitz. Not to the late 20s but there will be well regarded players to about 20 it seems. If NJ could add a second and select 14-17 anyway that would be a good outcome as I see it.
Its writers. They always love players like Catton. If Fitz love some player, he should pick him. Because even after trade with SJ we can loose 3 players we like.
 

Guttersniped

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Yawn. Strawman after strawman after strawman. You are almost there. Just say you are a Fitz fan and the draft is your life (which is appreciated, no sarcasm), so you can't be remotely objective.

1) You continuing to act like it's some farfetched, absurd notion that Fitz may be feeling the pressure to avoid missing the playoffs again next season is laughably bizarre. I said we should prob just let this go, but you wanna keep going.

2) You continue to make a nonsensical argument here that has next to nothing to do with my original post. It's really weird. I'm not anti draft. As I've said repeatedly on here, I don't think this team is only 1 player away from contending and I am also against spending material assets on any highly coveted goalie. For the third time now, all I'm saying is I think this pick+ could get moved for a forward given the current state of the roster and Fitz' trying to avoid back to back playoff misses with a young core and his hand selected coach. How you are so defiant and definitive in your belief Fitz wouldn't face any heat in this hypothetical outcome nor does he feel significant pressure to make the playoffs this year, is a mystery to me. The Devs were the biggest disappointment in the league last year vs expectations, yet you find it unreasonable Fitz could be feeling some added pressure.

As for the rest of your rambling, I don't even know who you are arguing with. Uhh yea, of course top scorers are more likely to be former first round picks. Okay....so....how does that pertain to anything I posted originally? Are you trying to overvalue a 1st rounder and act as if they are a lock to be key contributors within a few years? Because if so, there are quite a few players the Devs (and every other team) have drafted in the 1st round over the last 2 decades that would like a word. Also, if that is your point, it's a hypocritical argument....a #10 pick is like gold!!!!, while also saying the Devs couldn't package it for an impact player this season. Man, those other NHL GMs must be really dumb. What are they doing?!?!

Anyways, as I said originally and it SHOULD be common sense: The actual good GMs find guys being mis or under utilized by their current team, so they get them at a discount before they level up their game. Fitz has yet to do that with a single forward, which is absurd considering this team's alleged strength in its top 6. You apparently disagree with this as well, which is baffling.

Current SCF, just sticking with my examples earlier:
  • Hyman - you hand waive away because he got 7yr/$5.5aav....uhm, what? That has zero to do with anything. The actual point is he meshed so well that they unlocked a ppg player who just potted 50+ goals. That type of production for YOUR team is worth way more than that contract. Not debatable. This is what good, contending GMs do in a cap environment. Even more important when lacking a geographical and/or tax advantage.
  • Reinhart - again, mentioning his draft position has literally nothing to do with the conversation. If anything though, I suppose it would help my argument, which makes you bringing it up amusing at least. He was still only acquired for a likely late 1st a full year out and a great prospect at the least predictable/longest dev curve position in the NHL. Yet you think it's IMPOSSIBLE Fitz could get an impact 2nd liner or a young 3rd liner with upside with the 10oa THIS YEAR+. GASP, TOTAL FANTASY LAND STUFF.

I could go on and on, as demonstrated. :laugh: Look at nearly every serious contender in the past 15 years. Look at Boston and the moves they made (and still do. see: our beloved Zacha ironically). Look at both expansion teams, not even only Vegas. So many guys that vaulted production and overall play when given the opportunity or system change. Good GMs find these players. They make fair hockey trades too, like the Meier trade. But that isn't all they do.

What do you want? People to say they hypothetically for any trade? Any trade if it’s a RFA? If it’s a RFA with upside? If it’s a RFA who’ll work out like your examples did?

I also don’t think it’s handwaving to point out you provided 3 examples and only 1 was a trade.

The Reinhart trade was made in late July, and Bennett was 2021 TDL, it’s not like the draft is one chance to make a trade.
 

evnted

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No narrow consensus but my impression is there are about 12-15 players that seem to be seen with more confidence than the rest. What struck me is how much support there is for Catton as a Jack Hughes sort of center. That and Sennecke's second half as being a big differentiator for him. We will never know what teams were surveyed for this but we didn't see Brandsegg Nygard discussed. That suggests to me he's seen as a bit outside that top group. I'd really be looking for a bit of a trade down if I'm Fitz. Not to the late 20s but there will be well regarded players to about 20 it seems. If NJ could add a second and select 14-17 anyway that would be a good outcome as I see it.
if we could swap picks w the sharks to recover our 2nd and still pick a player we all wanted, id be totally on board (although i still have next to no hope tom will ever trade back lol)

i think the...narrowness of that next range is definitely a bit in the eye of the beholder. HP says 2-10 is tight, leaving all of catton/helenius/mbn out of that top range, for example. i do agree mbn typically seems to define the top of the next tier for most outlets. his reputation is definitely loftier on here than most other places (for good reason), but its also important to keep in mind this board prioritizes the attributes he brings way more than anywhere else, and is also unafraid to buy into the less sexy picks that usually wind up overshooting their pre draft perceptions

i think thats really the key reason for the discrepancy. most of the draft guys here want smarts, compete, forechecking, etc. over pure skill/tools even when the players in the latter group are perceived as higher end options than the former ones. then add on top of it an uncertain draft where you can very legitimately bias roster construction into your rankings, and i think the disparity gets even more dramatic. obviously, this can (and likely will) burn us to some degree, but overall its a more effective way to approach drafting

i like both catton and sennecke and would have more time for swinging on them if our core was in a worse state than it is. its not that their projections would be changing in this scenario, but my interest in risk/reward management would be different. catton is definitely not jack level, but i can buy a keller type hit. sennecke is an exciting prospect who is probably getting overrated in the top 5 range, but could still be a better version of batherson. players like helenius and mbn might not be able to match the top level upside, but their projections are much clearer

i think a lot of us view this pick as house money to directly address roster deficiencies in a draft that 1) has multiple high end versions of prospects who could do that and 2) doesnt have discernible enough tiers outside of the top ~20 to really care about passing on ultimate upside. potentially landing a cost controlled hagel in iginla, or trocheck in helenius, or higher end compher in mbn is a more palatable outcome than rolling the dice on another 70-80pt skill winger
 

Forge

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I'll still be shocked if they actually pick at 10oa. Fitz knows his job is in jeopardy if they miss the playoffs again, so I'd expect short term decisions. Heck, we already started to see it with the mind numbingly stupid Allen trade (made zero sense considering Kahk trade...who is a UFA, was cheaper, and more potential upside).

I don't expect it moved for a goalie though. As I've said repeatedly, that'd be nuts asset management considering the state of this roster and the NHL in 2024. The actual good GMs find guys being mis or under utilized by their current team, so they get them at a discount before they level up their game. Fitz has yet to do that with a single forward, which is absurd considering this team's alleged strength in its top 6.

Recent obvious examples: Hyman with Oilers, Reinhart and Verhaeghe+ with Panthers

Easier said than done, but I expect Fitz to at least take a swing this offseason: material trade including 10oa+ for a top 6 FWD....ideally a young 2/3 C with room to grow to give the lineup some versatility/depth. Palat and Haula are not full time top 6 players on a serious team. Mercer had a horrific season and Holtz is still a question mark.

If they don't materially improve the top 6/9 this offseason, including a 2/3 center or at least utility center, they are 100% reliant on Holtz and Mercer breakout/rebound + near perfect forward health. Good luck with that. Hard to do through UFA alone because NJ isn't tax friendly and general overpayment needed.

I'm open to it, but I think it's unlikely to move so far. Maybe closer to the draft of we hear about teams putting guys on the market who aren't talked about right now, I could see it.

But until then, I'm just going to get excited about who we may pick there
 

My3Sons

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I can't imagine MBN getting past Detroit at 15 unless someone else seriously drops. He seems like such a Yzerman kind of pick.
Then someone else will drop. It’s obviously dependent upon how they see the board but my impression is that Yzerman has really only made one Yzerman pick with Detroit. There is nothing about Raymond or Edvinsson that screams Yzerman to me. He picked Seider and is still living off that selection and in my view it wasn’t that shocking.
 

Jason MacIsaac

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NHL Draft Confidential: What scouts and executives think of Celebrini, Demidov and more

The theme from scouts and executives is that after Celebrini there is little consensus going on.

The good news for the Devils, there is little consensus because they love different players while only really liking others. The lack of consensus comes from too much to like the first 8-12 guys, not too little.
New Jersey could end up getting a top 3 player on their board. Almost certainly a top 6 player on their board.
 

tailfins

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I honestly don't think Calgary will pick Tij. It's way too much pressure. Setting the kid up for failure before he even plays for the team. You can't heap that on a teenager.
Yeah - I think Calgary is praying Tij goes before their pick. It's almost a no-win scenario for them.

Pick him and he doesn't become a superstar - it's because of the pressure.

Pass on him and he reasonably good elsewhere - how could they do that?

Pass on him and their pick busts - they passed on Iginla for WHO?! Doesn't even matter what Iginla does at that point - people would say they would rather have Iginla bust than some rando.

Gotta be somewhat of a nightmare scenario for Conroy.
 

Guadana

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Yeah - I think Calgary is praying Tij goes before their pick. It's almost a no-win scenario for them.

Pick him and he doesn't become a superstar - it's because of the pressure.

Pass on him and he reasonably good elsewhere - how could they do that?

Pass on him and their pick busts - they passed on Iginla for WHO?! Doesn't even matter what Iginla does at that point - people would say they would rather have Iginla bust than some rando.

Gotta be somewhat of a nightmare scenario for Conroy.
Mister Craig "We played with your father so sorry... you will be under hugest pressue/may be I will draft some son of your father but it would be not you" Conroy.

They should hope MYL will make a swing. And I will hope so too because

IQ
Positional game - Helenius, Nygard, Chernyshov are all better. I would add Hage too. Iginla can skate into the space of his partner without understanding it. I believe he will fix it but still.
Playmaking - Iginla is very good with his puck and will make very accurate passes, but because of positioning Iginla can overtake the puck, Helenius is better playmaker with less accurate passes, Nygard and Chernyshov are as accurate. Hage isnt as creative but still accurate.
Finding open ice for a shot - Nygard is way better. Chernyshov is behind, Helenius is little behind. Hage is just good. Both Chernyshov and Helenius are thinkong about the two way impact in that time.

Skills
Shooting - Nygard is better shooter.
Starting speed - Nygard, Chernyshov and Hage are faster.
Speed on the move - All four are faster than Iginla.
Skating - Nygard is better skater, Helenius and Chernyshov are as good.
Stickhandling - Iginla is way better than Nygard, Nygard is using fast and accurate passes mostly, Helenius is on the level in the corners, Chernyshov is better on the move. Hage is little worser in both situations, still good.

Compete level
Physical game - Iginla is good. Chernyshov is one head better as Nygard. Helenius is may be little better, he is more active and thinks the game two steps forward. Iginla is thinking one step forward with the puck but without the puck he is just active forechecker. Still good.
Defensive game - because of some lack of positional vision Iginla can lose his space, he isnt passanger, but need to work on his positioning more. All four are better, Chernyshov, Nygard are way better as on the move, as against the cycling as in the puck battles. Hage is better on the move, better positionally, Helenius is better positionally and he is better in battles.
Back check - better skaters doing better - all four are better against different transition.
Forechecking - he is very good. May be he isnt better than Nygard and Chernyshov, but he still very active and hard to play against.

____

Overall (like it, @evnted or not) Iginla is very good complimentary offensive winger. He can win the puck battle, he will outplay some players, he will make fast and accurate pass and will take open ice to make a great shot. But he needs to work on his defensive game and he is losing skating competition against this players.

So if Devils wanna find forward for playmaking and two way game - they should draft Helenius, if they wanna draft defensive and power forward in the same time - they should draft Nygard for shooting and Chernyshov for passing - he is best stickhandler and he can make great passes and take the open ice(fast first step helps more), if Devils want to draft absolutely perfect two way player with good skating, good speed, good two way game, good passing and good shooting - they can think about Hage too.

So I hope it will be Montreal or Seattle or Calgary who will draft Iginla before us. Iginla is very good prospect - he is working on his game a lot, he made huge steps, but his speed isnt on the level of Nygard, Chernyshov and Hage, his positional game and defensive game isnt on the level with this players, he still isnt as good as playmaker against Helenius because of his positioning. Again - very good passer, very good shooter, good in physical battles, very good forechecker. Just not the best option even if still good.
 

evnted

Registered User
Apr 14, 2016
771
1,773
Mister Craig "We played with your father so sorry... you will be under hugest pressue/may be I will draft some son of your father but it would be not you" Conroy.

They should hope MYL will make a swing. And I will hope so too because

IQ
Positional game - Helenius, Nygard, Chernyshov are all better. I would add Hage too. Iginla can skate into the space of his partner without understanding it. I believe he will fix it but still.
Playmaking - Iginla is very good with his puck and will make very accurate passes, but because of positioning Iginla can overtake the puck, Helenius is better playmaker with less accurate passes, Nygard and Chernyshov are as accurate. Hage isnt as creative but still accurate.
Finding open ice for a shot - Nygard is way better. Chernyshov is behind, Helenius is little behind. Hage is just good. Both Chernyshov and Helenius are thinkong about the two way impact in that time.

Skills
Shooting - Nygard is better shooter.
Starting speed - Nygard, Chernyshov and Hage are faster.
Speed on the move - All four are faster than Iginla.
Skating - Nygard is better skater, Helenius and Chernyshov are as good.
Stickhandling - Iginla is way better than Nygard, Nygard is using fast and accurate passes mostly, Helenius is on the level in the corners, Chernyshov is better on the move. Hage is little worser in both situations, still good.

Compete level
Physical game - Iginla is good. Chernyshov is one head better as Nygard. Helenius is may be little better, he is more active and thinks the game two steps forward. Iginla is thinking one step forward with the puck but without the puck he is just active forechecker. Still good.
Defensive game - because of some lack of positional vision Iginla can lose his space, he isnt passanger, but need to work on his positioning more. All four are better, Chernyshov, Nygard are way better as on the move, as against the cycling as in the puck battles. Hage is better on the move, better positionally, Helenius is better positionally and he is better in battles.
Back check - better skaters doing better - all four are better against different transition.
Forechecking - he is very good. May be he isnt better than Nygard and Chernyshov, but he still very active and hard to play against.

____

Overall (like it, @evnted or not) Iginla is very good complimentary offensive winger. He can win the puck battle, he will outplay some players, he will make fast and accurate pass and will take open ice to make a great shot. But he needs to work on his defensive game and he is losing skating competition against this players.

So if Devils wanna find forward for playmaking and two way game - they should draft Helenius, if they wanna draft defensive and power forward in the same time - they should draft Nygard for shooting and Chernyshov for passing - he is best stickhandler and he can make great passes and take the open ice(fast first step helps more), if Devils want to draft absolutely perfect two way player with good skating, good speed, good two way game, good passing and good shooting - they can think about Hage too.

So I hope it will be Montreal or Seattle or Calgary who will draft Iginla before us. Iginla is very good prospect - he is working on his game a lot, he made huge steps, but his speed isnt on the level of Nygard, Chernyshov and Hage, his positional game and defensive game isnt on the level with this players, he still isnt as good as playmaker against Helenius because of his positioning. Again - very good passer, very good shooter, good in physical battles, very good forechecker. Just not the best option even if still good.
trajectories guadana! :P

i think its important to contextualize a couple things here:

-in their d-1 seasons, helenius was a near full time liiga player, chernyshov was an mhl staple with khl looks, and mbn was a j20 staple with allsvenskan looks. tij was buried in the bottom 6 of a loaded seattle roster. all 3 other players had far greater in-game developmental opportunity up to this year

-of the 4, tij showed the greatest single season progression by far. now, i totally understand (and agree with) the argument that the previous point contributed to that, but we're talking a player who showed progress with literally every midseason complaint i had. obviously, thats not to say all parts of his game are there yet, i completely agree with the positional issues for example, but the improvements with his on-puck decision making and playmaking vision in particular lead me to believe the positional game can be improved as well

-mbn and chernyshov are nearly a full year older than tij, and all 3 other players have been brought up in professional environments. it should be expected that their habits are more refined, and in the case of the former two faster/stronger

-i also think mbn's/chernyshov's vision/awareness/iq are being overrated a touch. im not saying problematic by any means, but theres some recurrence of forced plays, struggles with problem solving, lack of proper response under pressure, etc. from both. tij had these issues early season, absolutely, but come the end of the year and into the u18s he was way more cerebral on the puck. there is no argument against helenius here, though, hes definitely the best of the bunch

-overall, i dont even disagree that tij might not be the hardest shooter or best playmaker or fastest straightline skater of the group. i think the strongest argument in favor of his offensive game is that he brings elements of everything without having a couple average projections in the way the others do. i also think hes the best at small area play which, as bizarre as it sounds to argue for a major junior kid, i think will make it easier for him to acclimate as a play facilitator than mbn/chernyshov who rely more on overpowering/blowing by defenders or helenius who more commonly plays off his linemates

all in good fun to debate. at the end of the day, we're talking players i have ranked in a very tight range, so im gonna be happy either way if its any of them. but im not getting off the tij train lol
 

StevenToddIves

Registered User
May 18, 2013
11,062
27,919
Brooklyn, NY
Nuggets from athletic draft confidential where Pronman asked NHL people some stuff:

Underrated guys: Vanacker, Sennecke (x2), Parekh, Kleber, Yakemchuk

Overrated: Silayev, Eiserman, Jiricek, Levshunov.
I'm going to do my thing and disagree with this haha.

How are Sennecke, Parekh and Yakemchuk underrated? They're routinely ranked in the top 10 in a draft with little agreement among the consensus.. Are people saying they should be in the top 3?

With the overrated guys I'm also a bit skeptical. I mean, if you're ranking Silayev at #2 perhaps, but again there's no harmony amongst the consensus -- I've seen several rankings of him outside the top 10. Jiricek's consensus ranking is in the 20s, are people saying he shouldn't be a top 10 pick?

Here's my top overrated and underrated at each position:

Over
C Miettinen -- hasn't done enough in my eyes for the multiple 1st round rankings
W Sennecke -- I like him, but how have I seen him ranked ahead of Demidov, Lindstrom and Catton? He lacks the tool kit or performance history of any of those three.
D Hutson -- I'm too concerned about his skating to rank him in the 2nd round, much less the 1st

Under
C Hage -- with a skill set of "great at everything" and an incredible finish to his season, I'm shocked people are still ranking him in the low 20s because a slow start which is easily attributable to recent surgery and family tragedy
W Nygard -- not sure when it became a good idea to watch a guy twice and decide his upside was limited because he didn't light it up stats-wise, but here we are
D Emery -- I get it, I get it, it's not as sexy watching the very best defensive defender in the draft as it watching the 16th best offensive defenseman
 

StevenToddIves

Registered User
May 18, 2013
11,062
27,919
Brooklyn, NY
No narrow consensus but my impression is there are about 12-15 players that seem to be seen with more confidence than the rest. What struck me is how much support there is for Catton as a Jack Hughes sort of center. That and Sennecke's second half as being a big differentiator for him. We will never know what teams were surveyed for this but we didn't see Brandsegg Nygard discussed. That suggests to me he's seen as a bit outside that top group. I'd really be looking for a bit of a trade down if I'm Fitz. Not to the late 20s but there will be well regarded players to about 20 it seems. If NJ could add a second and select 14-17 anyway that would be a good outcome as I see it.
Catton is a good skater and near-elite puck handler, while Hughes might have the best combination of skating and puck-handling in the NHL outside of McDavid. Hughes has a higher motor and is an appreciably better passer, which is saying a lot because Catton is an incredible passer. It's not close here, folks.

Watch Catton tape from this year then watch Cole Perfetti tape from his draft eligible year. There's your comparison. Both absolutely great prospects, but if you're taking either in the top 5 I'd be a bit wary.

I still don't see Sennecke as in the same tier as Nygard, so there's the converse to what other people are saying. Yes, Sennecke is an elite-level puckhandler and passer, two tools which Nygard is decent but not great at. But Nygard can not only skate circles around Sennecke, but he's also elite in more categories -- compete, hockey IQ, shooting and two-way play. And that's not even mentioning Nygard's huge advantage in physicality and interior play. I just don't see it as even close.

I agree with you (even though @Guadana might get mad at me) that a trade down would be fine in this particular draft. If someone is sweating Eiserman or Sennecke at #10? Sure, pick up a 2nd round pick and then grab Nygard or Solberg or Chernyshov or Hage at #15 -- that would be completely a great move in my book.
 

StevenToddIves

Registered User
May 18, 2013
11,062
27,919
Brooklyn, NY
if we could swap picks w the sharks to recover our 2nd and still pick a player we all wanted, id be totally on board (although i still have next to no hope tom will ever trade back lol)

i think the...narrowness of that next range is definitely a bit in the eye of the beholder. HP says 2-10 is tight, leaving all of catton/helenius/mbn out of that top range, for example. i do agree mbn typically seems to define the top of the next tier for most outlets. his reputation is definitely loftier on here than most other places (for good reason), but its also important to keep in mind this board prioritizes the attributes he brings way more than anywhere else, and is also unafraid to buy into the less sexy picks that usually wind up overshooting their pre draft perceptions

i think thats really the key reason for the discrepancy. most of the draft guys here want smarts, compete, forechecking, etc. over pure skill/tools even when the players in the latter group are perceived as higher end options than the former ones. then add on top of it an uncertain draft where you can very legitimately bias roster construction into your rankings, and i think the disparity gets even more dramatic. obviously, this can (and likely will) burn us to some degree, but overall its a more effective way to approach drafting

i like both catton and sennecke and would have more time for swinging on them if our core was in a worse state than it is. its not that their projections would be changing in this scenario, but my interest in risk/reward management would be different. catton is definitely not jack level, but i can buy a keller type hit. sennecke is an exciting prospect who is probably getting overrated in the top 5 range, but could still be a better version of batherson. players like helenius and mbn might not be able to match the top level upside, but their projections are much clearer

i think a lot of us view this pick as house money to directly address roster deficiencies in a draft that 1) has multiple high end versions of prospects who could do that and 2) doesnt have discernible enough tiers outside of the top ~20 to really care about passing on ultimate upside. potentially landing a cost controlled hagel in iginla, or trocheck in helenius, or higher end compher in mbn is a more palatable outcome than rolling the dice on another 70-80pt skill winger
Yup, given the choice of Nygard at #14 and Mustard at #46 or Catton at #10 I don't think I'd even hesitate. I mean, I'm a lousy opinion here because I'd simply prefer Nygard at #10 to Catton at #10.

Yeah - I think Calgary is praying Tij goes before their pick. It's almost a no-win scenario for them.

Pick him and he doesn't become a superstar - it's because of the pressure.

Pass on him and he reasonably good elsewhere - how could they do that?

Pass on him and their pick busts - they passed on Iginla for WHO?! Doesn't even matter what Iginla does at that point - people would say they would rather have Iginla bust than some rando.

Gotta be somewhat of a nightmare scenario for Conroy.
I agree it's tough for Calgary to pass on Tij. I mean, imagine you pass him for Catton and 5 years later Iginla scores 47 goals for Buffalo and Catton scores 23 for the Flames? I know Calgary fans -- they'd run you out of town.
 

Alex NJD

Registered User
Apr 28, 2015
5,118
5,228
Parsippany, New Jersey
Catching up on this thread and the post of all the scouts and executives reaction kind of has me thinking how much Canadian bias (especially that comment about Catton being Captain Canada) factors into Catton Sennecke and Iginla being ranked ahead of the rest constantly, if at all. From my understanding they're all worth top 10 picks but they don't seem universally better in my eyes than Helenius Hage MBN.

Also crazy to see that all 6 of the top dmen seem to be #1 on at least one scout/execs list
 
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