Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Guadana]

trajectories guadana!

i think its important to contextualize a couple things here:

-in their d-1 seasons, helenius was a near full time liiga player, chernyshov was an mhl staple with khl looks, and mbn was a j20 staple with allsvenskan looks. tij was buried in the bottom 6 of a loaded seattle roster. all 3 other players had far greater in-game developmental opportunity up to this year

Finally the interesting fight.

Let’s talk about trajectories. It was you who brought this up.

It’s not a problem of MBN, Chernyshov and Helenius who plays on adult(/more adult) level. All of them showed competent play. (MBN and Chernyshov showed skating too) they already did it.

-of the 4, tij showed the greatest single season progression by far. now, i totally understand (and agree with) the argument that the previous point contributed to that, but we're talking a player who showed progress with literally every midseason complaint i had. obviously, thats not to say all parts of his game are there yet, i completely agree with the positional issues for example, but the improvements with his on-puck decision making and playmaking vision in particular lead me to believe the positional game can be improved as well

-

Are you trully believe that Iginla showed best progression? Hage was 2ppg player in the final part of the season, Nygard has near historical numbers for his age in Allsvenskan playoff with teenagers on his line, Helenius wasnt far away to show historical numbers for his age in Liiga, Chernyshov wasn’t really productive in KHL but still he was veeeeery competent to play in KHL, win or outplay against KHLers as in puck battles, as with puck handling. He did it in a year+1 - still very hard thing to do for his age, with Tij skating and positioning it would be very hard to do the same because better players don’t do this more often.

-mbn and chernyshov are nearly a full year older than tij, and all 3 other players have been brought up in professional environments. it should be expected that their habits are more refined, and in the case of the former two faster/stronger

Again not a problem of those two. It’s not habits - it’s skills and positional play where Tij is behind. Tij is slower and his skating isn’t on the level with them. Chernyshov and Nygard are really faster and we can’t close our eyes on this aspect. Of course Iginla can refine his habits next year, he still needs work on positioning. And it’s still the thing he needs to do, it’s still not the only thing he needs to do.

-i also think mbn's/chernyshov's vision/awareness/iq are being overrated a touch. im not saying problematic by any means, but theres some recurrence of forced plays, struggles with problem solving, lack of proper response under pressure, etc. from both. tij had these issues early season, absolutely, but come the end of the year and into the u18s he was way more cerebral on the puck. there is no argument against helenius here, though, hes definitely the best of the bunch

MBN is underrated in vision. He knows where he needs to be and always work positionally with his teammates. Always doing right decision - it’s description of decision making. Chernyshov is okay - in some parts he is very good, in other parts he needs to find idea - like in case of Iginla. Still better in neutral zone and in d zone without the puck, still understand where he should be in the cycling even if he isn’t conductor. Nygard showed something on world levels.
Like I said with the puck Iginla looks little better with the puck but again - easier level. He didn’t face harder pressure. Nygard was great in playoff under pressure from what I saw. Helenius was good in some games, made some mistakes in others. Chernyshov did some mistakes, but nothing critical overall, still much harder level. Nygard and Chernyshov especially played in much harder competitions. Iginla showed more tunnel vision in compare to Nygard, Iginla is going to partners space and create easier opportunities for opponents defensemen sometimes, he is outplaying opponents but it’s junior league - big part of it will not work in NHL And for now he doesn’t have skating to do so.

-overall, i dont even disagree that tij might not be the hardest shooter or best playmaker or fastest straightline skater of the group. i think the strongest argument in favor of his offensive game is that he brings elements of everything without having a couple average projections in the way the others do. i also think hes the best at small area play which, as bizarre as it sounds to argue for a major junior kid, i think will make it easier for him to acclimate as a play facilitator than mbn/chernyshov who rely more on overpowering/blowing by defenders or helenius who more commonly plays off his linemates

all in good fun to debate. at the end of the day, we're talking players i have ranked in a very tight range, so im gonna be happy either way if its any of them. but im not getting off the tij train lol

Iginla doesn’t bring elements of everything. Hage is doing it. Nygard is doing it without stick handling. Helenius is doing it without good starting speed and without great accuracy, may be with worser shot. Iginla isn’t good defensively when all four are good/very good or even great. Nygard, Chernyshov and Hage are faster. All of them are bigger (I forget about size, I will add it in the main post.
Small areas of? Defensive game? No. Breakaway game? No. Offensive game? Some parts yeah! Some parts no - Helenius is smarter, Chernyshov at least on the level in puck handling but with separation speed and better physics he can use it more productively, Nygard is better positionally, his skating helps him.
Yes it sounds bizarre, because Chernyshov and Nygard are doing what they should do on the harder level - right positioning on the ice in and against the cycling, right positioning in puck battles, they use skating - again we can’t deny the difference. It will be harder step for Iginla - he isn’t small but he is smaller and slower. And he doesn’t understand positional game in d zone. He isn’t Sennecke but he isn’t on the level with this guys. Even when and if he will develop his positioning, he still will be slower and smaller.

Overall I understand you like this huge step. You like his desire to play to the end. You like that he is doing it at the very young age. And like I said I’m good with him as a pick. I believe he will develop his positioning without the puck in o zone enough to be in the right place in cycling, I believe he will develop his positioning without the puck in d zone to play competent against the cycling. His passing and shooting are very good to play with talents and create chances. He will be hard worker and positive player.
But I see potential of two way player in Nygard who will be on the puck every second of the game because his positioning and skating. He is playing like center who is covering a lot of ice. Having this player on the wing is advantage. Chernyshov, if he will develop his game, will be very hard to play against because of his combo of skating, speed, physical play and puck handling - yes, he isn’t main playmaker, but one on one he has tools. Helenius is way too smart to not making positive impact no matter where he is playing on the ice. May be Iginla has higher ceiling than Helenius because of some skills but Helenius can develop some parts of his game too. Hage just good in everything.

And yes, I’m happy to debate about our pick. I don’t have them in tight erea. I have Nygard higher. Helenius, Chernyshov, Iginla, Hage - yeah they are closer on my taste. I understand arguments against other boys in compare to Iginla even I have more and better(he-he) arguments for other two or three.
But Nygard is rare player who is seeing partners, opponents and the puck, moving and changing the position in every moment with situation, he has skating, speed, vision, accurate pass and great shooting for that. Puck handling is great but it’s very small parts of the game if you are not Jack Hughes.

Sorry, sometimes I repeat myself.

 

[evnted]

Finally the interesting fight.

Let’s talk about trajectories. It was you who brought this up.

It’s not a problem of MBN, Chernyshov and Helenius who plays on adult(/more adult) level. All of them showed competent play. (MBN and Chernyshov showed skating too) they already did it.



Are you trully believe that Iginla showed best progression? Hage was 2ppg player in the final part of the season, Nygard has near historical numbers for his age in Allsvenskan playoff with teenagers on his line, Helenius wasnt far away to show historical numbers for his age in Liiga, Chernyshov wasn’t really productive in KHL but still he was veeeeery competent to play in KHL, win or outplay against KHLers as in puck battles, as with puck handling. He did it in a year+1 - still very hard thing to do for his age, with Tij skating and positioning it would be very hard to do the same because better players don’t do this more often.



Again not a problem of those two. It’s not habits - it’s skills and positional play where Tij is behind. Tij is slower and his skating isn’t on the level with them. Chernyshov and Nygard are really faster and we can’t close our eyes on this aspect. Of course Iginla can refine his habits next year, he still needs work on positioning. And it’s still the thing he needs to do, it’s still not the only thing he needs to do.


MBN is underrated in vision. He knows where he needs to be and always work positionally with his teammates. Always doing right decision - it’s description of decision making. Chernyshov is okay - in some parts he is very good, in other parts he needs to find idea - like in case of Iginla. Still better in neutral zone and in d zone without the puck, still understand where he should be in the cycling even if he isn’t conductor. Nygard showed something on world levels.
Like I said with the puck Iginla looks little better with the puck but again - easier level. He didn’t face harder pressure. Nygard was great in playoff under pressure from what I saw. Helenius was good in some games, made some mistakes in others. Chernyshov did some mistakes, but nothing critical overall, still much harder level. Nygard and Chernyshov especially played in much harder competitions. Iginla showed more tunnel vision in compare to Nygard, Iginla is going to partners space and create easier opportunities for opponents defensemen sometimes, he is outplaying opponents but it’s junior league - big part of it will not work in NHL And for now he doesn’t have skating to do so.



Iginla doesn’t bring elements of everything. Hage is doing it. Nygard is doing it without stick handling. Helenius is doing it without good starting speed and without great accuracy, may be with worser shot. Iginla isn’t good defensively when all four are good/very good or even great. Nygard, Chernyshov and Hage are faster. All of them are bigger (I forget about size, I will add it in the main post.
Small areas of? Defensive game? No. Breakaway game? No. Offensive game? Some parts yeah! Some parts no - Helenius is smarter, Chernyshov at least on the level in puck handling but with separation speed and better physics he can use it more productively, Nygard is better positionally, his skating helps him.
Yes it sounds bizarre, because Chernyshov and Nygard are doing what they should do on the harder level - right positioning on the ice in and against the cycling, right positioning in puck battles, they use skating - again we can’t deny the difference. It will be harder step for Iginla - he isn’t small but he is smaller and slower. And he doesn’t understand positional game in d zone. He isn’t Sennecke but he isn’t on the level with this guys. Even when and if he will develop his positioning, he still will be slower and smaller.

Overall I understand you like this huge step. You like his desire to play to the end. You like that he is doing it at the very young age. And like I said I’m good with him as a pick. I believe he will develop his positioning without the puck in o zone enough to be in the right place in cycling, I believe he will develop his positioning without the puck in d zone to play competent against the cycling. His passing and shooting are very good to play with talents and create chances. He will be hard worker and positive player.
But I see potential of two way player in Nygard who will be on the puck every second of the game because his positioning and skating. He is playing like center who is covering a lot of ice. Having this player on the wing is advantage. Chernyshov, if he will develop his game, will be very hard to play against because of his combo of skating, speed, physical play and puck handling - yes, he isn’t main playmaker, but one on one he has tools. Helenius is way too smart to not making positive impact no matter where he is playing on the ice. May be Iginla has higher ceiling than Helenius because of some skills but Helenius can develop some parts of his game too. Hage just good in everything.

And yes, I’m happy to debate about our pick. I don’t have them in tight erea. I have Nygard higher. Helenius, Chernyshov, Iginla, Hage - yeah they are closer on my taste. I understand arguments against other boys in compare to Iginla even I have more and better(he-he) arguments for other two or three.
But Nygard is rare player who is seeing partners, opponents and the puck, moving and changing the position in every moment with situation, he has skating, speed, vision, accurate pass and great shooting for that. Puck handling is great but it’s very small parts of the game if you are not Jack Hughes.

Sorry, sometimes I repeat myself.

-for progression, yes, i would confidently say tij was the best of the 4, and thats not to take away from the accomplishments of the others. i dont consider an uptick in results to necessarily imply an uptick in intent. mbn from early year to wjc to season close to worlds did not show the same level of progression that tij showed from early year to TPG to playoffs to u18s (nor did the other two). mbn's allsvenskan playoff run was superb, agree with you there, but i think thats characteristic of his style benefiting from tighter/more physical games more than it was him flashing greater passing vision, better handling, and so on. if i went back to my notes on tij from, say, january, id be throwing out large chunks of complaints about dead end plays, forced shots, lack of playmaking intent, disinterested defensive game, etc., all of which were improved (but again, not mastered by any means). hage progression was incredible, i agree there, but he wasnt part of the original discussion so i wasnt considering him with that statement

-the reference to age and professional experience was to help clarify/contextualize why tij is (understandably) a bit behind the others when we break down individual hard skills. certainly no fault of the other 3 that they had more/greater experience, i agree

-the size disparity is a bit overstated. from the combine: mbn is 6'0.75" 207lb, hage is 6'0.75" 188lb, and tij is 6' 191lb. theres a difference, but functionally theyre close enough. i dont think the disparity in explosiveness (which of course exists, i dont mean to imply otherwise) is as imperative in this specific case when we're talking about someone so adept at small area play and playing through contact (ie hage struggles more to challenge middle ice despite his physical advantage), but dont get me wrong ill always take faster players lol

-i think we're at a bit of an impasse regarding mbn's vision. totally agree his positioning, decision making, etc. are all excellent, and i still want to reiterate i dont think theres a problem in any way, shape, or form. but i dont think he (or chernyshov) see the ice the same way tij does, and certainly not the way helenius does. i dont think they see the same opportunities, can hit the same lanes, or have the same level of foresight on the puck. i dont see the same level of deception, or ability to draw pressure/manipulate defenders. its all good we see it differently, but i dont think theres much chance for us to resolve this part of the discussion

that said, i dont even disagree regarding the mbn fit, i think if we put everything aside (and hope the RW/C projection holds), he probably is the best possible option for the roster. i just like tij a smidge more overall. and again, top 10 for all 3 of them for me (sorry chernyshov, hes just a touch outside lol)

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

The Devils mentioned.

 

[evnted]

The Devils mentioned.

hes a center, so naturally we wouldnt be taking him anyway

 

[HBK27]

The Athletic Staff Mock Draft 2.0

NHL Staff Mock Draft 2.0: Celebrini is No. 1, but where do Levshunov, Silayev, Demidov land?

Who did The Athletic's NHL beat writers pick in their mock draft? In this exercise, we predict the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft.

www.nytimes.com

1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Silayev
4. Lindstrom
5. Demidov
6. Yakemchuk
7. Parekh
8. Buium
9. Iginla

11. Dickinson
12. Catton
13. Eiserman
14. Jiricek
15. Helenius
16. Solberg
17. Nygard
18. Hage

 

[evnted]

The Athletic Staff Mock Draft 2.0

NHL Staff Mock Draft 2.0: Celebrini is No. 1, but where do Levshunov, Silayev, Demidov land?

Who did The Athletic's NHL beat writers pick in their mock draft? In this exercise, we predict the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft.

www.nytimes.com

1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Silayev
4. Lindstrom
5. Demidov
6. Yakemchuk
7. Parekh
8. Buium
9. Iginla

View attachment 881864

11. Dickinson
12. Catton
13. Eiserman
14. Jiricek
15. Helenius
16. Solberg
17. Nygard
18. Hage


View attachment 881865

gonna have to talk me off the cliff if we pass on dickinson and it isnt for a demidov/lindstrom type pick

 

[forceten]

It's so all over the map. I'd love to get Nygard, if only that eventd says his play is benefitted by tight checking, physical games - that sounds more like playoff hockey.

But Hage is intriguing since he wasn't really on the radar for a pick here until recently. Sounds good.

Eventd/STI/Guadana - is Hage as close to making the roster as Nygard and Helenius would be? I'd really like someone who can come to camp and have a legitimate shot at making the team this year.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

gonna have to talk me off the cliff if we pass on dickinson and it isnt for a demidov/lindstrom type pick

I would be pretty disappointed if we pick Dickinson. Not sure why he’s rated so highly. His skating is pretty overrated and he doesn’t bring any real high-end upside IMO.

 

[evnted]

It's so all over the map. I'd love to get Nygard, if only that eventd says his play is benefitted by tight checking, physical games - that sounds more like playoff hockey.

But Hage is intriguing since he wasn't really on the radar for a pick here until recently. Sounds good.

Eventd/STI/Guadana - is Hage as close to making the roster as Nygard and Helenius would be? I'd really like someone who can come to camp and have a legitimate shot at making the team this year.

one thing to note with hage is he previously had been seen as a top ~10 pick in this class (we're talking prior to the year starting) and fell off due to injury/recovery and some issue acclimating to the ushl, and the passing of his father only compounded things going into this season. so while he's technically a DY riser, in the grand scheme of things, it feels more like stock recovery. and no, hes certainly not as close as those two

helenius will have a legitimate shot to make the roster this upcoming year pending a good enough camp showing. his game is dependable, easy to slot on a roster, and well-suited for NA. we know hes smart and highly adaptable, too. his resume includes two teenage seasons in liiga, and multiple instances of playing up his age bracket. theres a case to be made for him starting in the A, but with how much he likes to play off his linemates, i dont think thats the best environment for him to grow because they wont be anywhere near him mentally. had he struggled with physicality, board play, defense, etc. id be more supportive of it, but he doesnt. basically, of the realistic options, the nhl might very well be the right choice

in theory mbn should be in the same camp, but i think hes more directly benefited by going overseas for 1 more year. his playoff run was spectacular but overall i dont think he dominated hockeyallsvenskan (SWE 2nd tier) in league play. i always prefer kids prove they need to graduate before doing so. plus, not to mention, hes still going up a level playing in the SHL this upcoming season. id also love to see him have a chance to grow more of a play driving role even if he never likely projects as one long term. if skelleftea's season ends before ours, i have no doubt he'll have a very real shot of seeing games by the end of the year

hage has a couple things to work on that i think will be benefited by multiple years in college. first, is simply scaling his game and proving he can perform at the same rate he closed out the season over the course of a full year (at a higher level, no less). second, he needs to play like more of a center. its easy to look at his frame/skillset/mobility/etc. and think center, and i even agree with it, but my viewings havent inspired confidence in that projection yet, i see him more C/RW. hes not really a two way presence right now, he still has some quirks with his decision making and engagement, hes still more reliant off the rush/off the wing than id like to see, and so on

lots to like in hage for sure, but much more of a project piece than helenius and mbn who are both potential roster slots next year, or at the very least the following season

 

[evnted]

I would be pretty disappointed if we pick Dickinson. Not sure why he’s rated so highly. His skating is pretty overrated and he doesn’t bring any real high-end upside IMO.

to each their own, i know theres very little consensus among these top defenders. if i may offer a couple points here:

-hes not a luke skater, thats for sure, but hes incredibly fluid, powerful, and fast, which is quite intimidating at his size. imo hes not always given the green light to take off with the puck, which i think may skew the perception of his mobility, or at list the utility of it

-he is commonly docked for flubbed breakouts, which i believe to be (at least partially) a london issue. bonk last year, among others, was also critiqued about this. yes, i want him individually to take more time with some plays, but i believe its a system thing to push play up and out as quickly as possible

-dickinson does not have a traditionally elite offensive skillset, but i think his upside is being a bit understated by some because of it. his shot is a clear weapon from the point, he has some very underappreciated hand eye in terms of redirects, and his positional instincts coupled with his high end skating allows him to cover ground quickly and slip behind defenses for chances. if you have a chance to rewatch the memorial cup final, youll see more of this. he lacks creativity on the puck at times, but i dont think that takes away from the overall package; hes just more of a pietangelo type offensive presence than a true game breaker

-his numbers are also getting understated. i know he played on a good, high scoring team, but he still produced at >1ppg rate as his teams 2nd defender whereas pretty much everyone ahead of him (lev, buium, yak, parekh) got top pp deployment, for example. he also did so while shouldering a heavy defensive assignment in the process

when projecting dickinson, i can agree he does not possess the best upside of that top range of defenders, but i dont think that implies he doesnt have top end upside. i think part of the appeal is a very good/high end two-way, all situations projection (albeit maybe not elite) with a floor that is impressively higher than some of the other options

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I would be pretty disappointed if we pick Dickinson. Not sure why he’s rated so highly. His skating is pretty overrated and he doesn’t bring any real high-end upside IMO.

The probability Dickinson makes the NHL within 3 years and is better than Siegenthaler is pretty high it sounds like. Maybe he's not going to win multiple Norris trophies but he can apparently play in all situations, with few red flags that indicate he won't make it (e.g. he doesn't have NHL caliber skating).

He sounds like he'd be a great pick.

 

[My3Sons]

The probability Dickinson makes the NHL within 3 years and is better than Siegenthaler is pretty high it sounds like. Maybe he's not going to win multiple Norris trophies but he can apparently play in all situations, with few red flags that indicate he won't make it (e.g. he doesn't have NHL caliber skating).

He sounds like he'd be a great pick.

I’m skeptical he gets to 10. Those comments in the scouts/execs excerpts were very positive in terms of him being a sure fire NHL player. No real risk other than what pair he can level up to. Some team is going to see 6’3” 200+ and great skater and defender and take a chance on the offensive upside. Guys like Parekh who don’t offer a strong B game are much riskier since if they don’t hit they become fringe guys. To me this really seems like a draft where I’d be willing to go from 10 into the teens if it landed NJ a second round pick or a solid prospect. Somebody good is going to fall.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

to each their own, i know theres very little consensus among these top defenders. if i may offer a couple points here:

-hes not a luke skater, thats for sure, but hes incredibly fluid, powerful, and fast, which is quite intimidating at his size. imo hes not always given the green light to take off with the puck, which i think may skew the perception of his mobility, or at list the utility of it

-he is commonly docked for flubbed breakouts, which i believe to be (at least partially) a london issue. bonk last year, among others, was also critiqued about this. yes, i want him individually to take more time with some plays, but i believe its a system thing to push play up and out as quickly as possible

-dickinson does not have a traditionally elite offensive skillset, but i think his upside is being a bit understated by some because of it. his shot is a clear weapon from the point, he has some very underappreciated hand eye in terms of redirects, and his positional instincts coupled with his high end skating allows him to cover ground quickly and slip behind defenses for chances. if you have a chance to rewatch the memorial cup final, youll see more of this. he lacks creativity on the puck at times, but i dont think that takes away from the overall package; hes just more of a pietangelo type offensive presence than a true game breaker

-his numbers are also getting understated. i know he played on a good, high scoring team, but he still produced at >1ppg rate as his teams 2nd defender whereas pretty much everyone ahead of him (lev, buium, yak, parekh) got top pp deployment, for example. he also did so while shouldering a heavy defensive assignment in the process

when projecting dickinson, i can agree he does not possess the best upside of that top range of defenders, but i dont think that implies he doesnt have top end upside. i think part of the appeal is a very good/high end two-way, all situations projection (albeit maybe not elite) with a floor that is impressively higher than some of the other options

Fair enough but there’s a few things I disagree with in here.

First, him not having the green light to take off with the puck is blatantly untrue. You don’t get much more freedom to do so as a defensemen than he had. There were a lot of times where he was a 4th forward just roaming around and much of his production came from this and playing on arguably the best team in the CHL. Also, I wouldn’t call him his team’s 2nd defender although he did miss out on the pp1 time that some of the comparables got. London liked putting all forwards at the top of their powerplay.

In terms of the skating I agree that he’s fast and reasonable fluid. Especially for his size but I don’t think he’s that efficient, quick, or has particularly great edges. Usually he shows off his speed when he’s able to wind up for a skate up the ice which isn’t gonna happen as much at the NHL level. He’s a pretty good skater for his size but not the great skater he’s made out to be by some. Think he’ll be an average to slightly above skater at the nhl level. I actually don’t mind the pietrangelo stylistic comparison that much and I think he has a pretty good offensive mind off the puck.

Overall, I don’t think he’s anything special defensively or offensively. I think he has a good shot at being a decent 2nd pair defensemen but don’t think it’s all that likely he’s better than that and despite the high floor suggestions I could see him not working out.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The probability Dickinson makes the NHL within 3 years and is better than Siegenthaler is pretty high it sounds like. Maybe he's not going to win multiple Norris trophies but he can apparently play in all situations, with few red flags that indicate he won't make it (e.g. he doesn't have NHL caliber skating).

He sounds like he'd be a great pick.

I wouldn’t assume that but it also depends on what Siegenthaler were talking about. From a couple years ago I think that’s highly unlikely. More recent where he hardly looks like he belongs, sure.

As I just said in another post I think he has a pretty good chance at being a decent 2nd pairing defensemen but don’t think it’s likely he’s better than that and could see him not reaching that. He’s the kind of guy I’d be happy taking in the mid or later first round but at 10 think there’s guys with more upside and overall potential. Wouldn’t have myself on a ledge over this pick but wouldn’t be super excited.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I wouldn’t assume that but it also depends on what Siegenthaler were talking about. From a couple years ago I think that’s highly unlikely. More recent where he hardly looks like he belongs, sure.

As I just said in another post I think he has a pretty good chance at being a decent 2nd pairing defensemen but don’t think it’s likely he’s better than that and could see him not reaching that. He’s the kind of guy I’d be happy taking in the mid or later first round but at 10 think there’s guys with more upside and overall potential. Wouldn’t have myself on a leader over this pick but wouldn’t be super excited.

I do think there is a mentality shift we need to make re: the draft now that the team is mostly built. Until recently the team desperately needed high end talent, so upside upside upside. Now the team is pretty much built around its core players. The draft is an opportunity to get great cost controlled talent for the team's "window." A cost controlled 2nd pairing dman for probably 2026-2029 is incredibly valuable. And everything I read seems to indicate he's got the possibility to be more than that. I also would be happy if they took Konsta Helenius who is getting the "low ceiling" scouting reports. If he can be a useful 3rd line center within 3 years that's a huge get.

To illustrate someone like Sam Dickinson might make a lot more sense than Zeev Buium for NJ given Luke Hughes is going to be here for a while, and he's frankly going to get paid a lot of money to be here eating up a ton of minutes Zeev would have otherwise used to do his thing. Maybe in 5 years Dickinson won't be the best player in the draft but he also won't be still trying to crack the league.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I do think there is a mentality shift we need to make re: the draft now that the team is mostly built. Until recently the team desperately needed high end talent, so upside upside upside. Now the team is pretty much built around its core players. The draft is an opportunity to get great cost controlled talent for the team's "window." A cost controlled 2nd pairing dman for probably 2026-2029 is incredibly valuable. And everything I read seems to indicate he's got the possibility to be more than that. I also would be happy if they took Konsta Helenius who is getting the "low ceiling" scouting reports. If he can be a useful 3rd line center within 3 years that's a huge get.

To illustrate someone like Sam Dickinson might make a lot more sense than Zeev Buium for NJ given Luke Hughes is going to be here for a while, and he's frankly going to get paid a lot of money to be here eating up a ton of minutes Zeev would have otherwise used to do his thing. Maybe in 5 years Dickinson won't be the best player in the draft but he also won't be still trying to crack the league.

He isn’t guaranteed to be a top 4 defensemen and there’s a good chance he won’t be one by 2026. His game needs refinement and he may even spend some time in the AHL.

A guy like Buium is exactly why I wouldn’t want to take Dickinson at 10. He’s better now and I think he’s a much more talented player who will be better in 2 years and on. Just an overall better and more talented prospect. Dickinson isn’t safer or more ready than him at all nor does he have the upside Buium has IMO. There’s just gonna be better options at 10.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I think what sometimes happens is less talented or skilled prospects who are keeping up performance wise get confused as being more ready. Dickinson isn’t as talented as some of the other top D prospects but has done well so he’s assumed to be more ready. I’m not sure Dickinson performs this well or is as highly rated if he’s on a significantly weaker team.

 

[My3Sons]

I think what sometimes happens is less talented or skilled prospects who are keeping up performance wise get confused as being more ready. Dickinson isn’t as talented as some of the other top D prospects but has done well so he’s assumed to be more ready. I’m not sure Dickinson performs this well or is as highly rated if he’s on a significantly weaker team.

that's where you have to trust your amateur scouts. Clearly some NHL scouts/execs like what they see in Dickinson. Some folks posting here do too. Presumably the team will have multiple eyes doing the evaluations and it won't just be one or two individuals. What you see may or may not be what others see it's really hard to know.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Finally the interesting fight.

Let’s talk about trajectories. It was you who brought this up.

It’s not a problem of MBN, Chernyshov and Helenius who plays on adult(/more adult) level. All of them showed competent play. (MBN and Chernyshov showed skating too) they already did it.



Are you trully believe that Iginla showed best progression? Hage was 2ppg player in the final part of the season, Nygard has near historical numbers for his age in Allsvenskan playoff with teenagers on his line, Helenius wasnt far away to show historical numbers for his age in Liiga, Chernyshov wasn’t really productive in KHL but still he was veeeeery competent to play in KHL, win or outplay against KHLers as in puck battles, as with puck handling. He did it in a year+1 - still very hard thing to do for his age, with Tij skating and positioning it would be very hard to do the same because better players don’t do this more often.



Again not a problem of those two. It’s not habits - it’s skills and positional play where Tij is behind. Tij is slower and his skating isn’t on the level with them. Chernyshov and Nygard are really faster and we can’t close our eyes on this aspect. Of course Iginla can refine his habits next year, he still needs work on positioning. And it’s still the thing he needs to do, it’s still not the only thing he needs to do.


MBN is underrated in vision. He knows where he needs to be and always work positionally with his teammates. Always doing right decision - it’s description of decision making. Chernyshov is okay - in some parts he is very good, in other parts he needs to find idea - like in case of Iginla. Still better in neutral zone and in d zone without the puck, still understand where he should be in the cycling even if he isn’t conductor. Nygard showed something on world levels.
Like I said with the puck Iginla looks little better with the puck but again - easier level. He didn’t face harder pressure. Nygard was great in playoff under pressure from what I saw. Helenius was good in some games, made some mistakes in others. Chernyshov did some mistakes, but nothing critical overall, still much harder level. Nygard and Chernyshov especially played in much harder competitions. Iginla showed more tunnel vision in compare to Nygard, Iginla is going to partners space and create easier opportunities for opponents defensemen sometimes, he is outplaying opponents but it’s junior league - big part of it will not work in NHL And for now he doesn’t have skating to do so.



Iginla doesn’t bring elements of everything. Hage is doing it. Nygard is doing it without stick handling. Helenius is doing it without good starting speed and without great accuracy, may be with worser shot. Iginla isn’t good defensively when all four are good/very good or even great. Nygard, Chernyshov and Hage are faster. All of them are bigger (I forget about size, I will add it in the main post.
Small areas of? Defensive game? No. Breakaway game? No. Offensive game? Some parts yeah! Some parts no - Helenius is smarter, Chernyshov at least on the level in puck handling but with separation speed and better physics he can use it more productively, Nygard is better positionally, his skating helps him.
Yes it sounds bizarre, because Chernyshov and Nygard are doing what they should do on the harder level - right positioning on the ice in and against the cycling, right positioning in puck battles, they use skating - again we can’t deny the difference. It will be harder step for Iginla - he isn’t small but he is smaller and slower. And he doesn’t understand positional game in d zone. He isn’t Sennecke but he isn’t on the level with this guys. Even when and if he will develop his positioning, he still will be slower and smaller.

Overall I understand you like this huge step. You like his desire to play to the end. You like that he is doing it at the very young age. And like I said I’m good with him as a pick. I believe he will develop his positioning without the puck in o zone enough to be in the right place in cycling, I believe he will develop his positioning without the puck in d zone to play competent against the cycling. His passing and shooting are very good to play with talents and create chances. He will be hard worker and positive player.
But I see potential of two way player in Nygard who will be on the puck every second of the game because his positioning and skating. He is playing like center who is covering a lot of ice. Having this player on the wing is advantage. Chernyshov, if he will develop his game, will be very hard to play against because of his combo of skating, speed, physical play and puck handling - yes, he isn’t main playmaker, but one on one he has tools. Helenius is way too smart to not making positive impact no matter where he is playing on the ice. May be Iginla has higher ceiling than Helenius because of some skills but Helenius can develop some parts of his game too. Hage just good in everything.

And yes, I’m happy to debate about our pick. I don’t have them in tight erea. I have Nygard higher. Helenius, Chernyshov, Iginla, Hage - yeah they are closer on my taste. I understand arguments against other boys in compare to Iginla even I have more and better(he-he) arguments for other two or three.
But Nygard is rare player who is seeing partners, opponents and the puck, moving and changing the position in every moment with situation, he has skating, speed, vision, accurate pass and great shooting for that. Puck handling is great but it’s very small parts of the game if you are not Jack Hughes.

Sorry, sometimes I repeat myself.

Get me some popcorn!

-for progression, yes, i would confidently say tij was the best of the 4, and thats not to take away from the accomplishments of the others. i dont consider an uptick in results to necessarily imply an uptick in intent. mbn from early year to wjc to season close to worlds did not show the same level of progression that tij showed from early year to TPG to playoffs to u18s (nor did the other two). mbn's allsvenskan playoff run was superb, agree with you there, but i think thats characteristic of his style benefiting from tighter/more physical games more than it was him flashing greater passing vision, better handling, and so on. if i went back to my notes on tij from, say, january, id be throwing out large chunks of complaints about dead end plays, forced shots, lack of playmaking intent, disinterested defensive game, etc., all of which were improved (but again, not mastered by any means). hage progression was incredible, i agree there, but he wasnt part of the original discussion so i wasnt considering him with that statement

-the reference to age and professional experience was to help clarify/contextualize why tij is (understandably) a bit behind the others when we break down individual hard skills. certainly no fault of the other 3 that they had more/greater experience, i agree

-the size disparity is a bit overstated. from the combine: mbn is 6'0.75" 207lb, hage is 6'0.75" 188lb, and tij is 6' 191lb. theres a difference, but functionally theyre close enough. i dont think the disparity in explosiveness (which of course exists, i dont mean to imply otherwise) is as imperative in this specific case when we're talking about someone so adept at small area play and playing through contact (ie hage struggles more to challenge middle ice despite his physical advantage), but dont get me wrong ill always take faster players lol

-i think we're at a bit of an impasse regarding mbn's vision. totally agree his positioning, decision making, etc. are all excellent, and i still want to reiterate i dont think theres a problem in any way, shape, or form. but i dont think he (or chernyshov) see the ice the same way tij does, and certainly not the way helenius does. i dont think they see the same opportunities, can hit the same lanes, or have the same level of foresight on the puck. i dont see the same level of deception, or ability to draw pressure/manipulate defenders. its all good we see it differently, but i dont think theres much chance for us to resolve this part of the discussion

that said, i dont even disagree regarding the mbn fit, i think if we put everything aside (and hope the RW/C projection holds), he probably is the best possible option for the roster. i just like tij a smidge more overall. and again, top 10 for all 3 of them for me (sorry chernyshov, hes just a touch outside lol)

Get me more popcorn!

 

[evnted]

Fair enough but there’s a few things I disagree with in here.

First, him not having the green light to take off with the puck is blatantly untrue. You don’t get much more freedom to do so as a defensemen than he had. There were a lot of times where he was a 4th forward just roaming around and much of his production came from this and playing on arguably the best team in the CHL. Also, I wouldn’t call him his team’s 2nd defender although he did miss out on the pp1 time that some of the comparables got. London liked putting all forwards at the top of their powerplay.

In terms of the skating I agree that he’s fast and reasonable fluid. Especially for his size but I don’t think he’s that efficient, quick, or has particularly great edges. Usually he shows off his speed when he’s able to wind up for a skate up the ice which isn’t gonna happen as much at the NHL level. He’s a pretty good skater for his size but not the great skater he’s made out to be by some. Think he’ll be an average to slightly above skater at the nhl level. I actually don’t mind the pietrangelo stylistic comparison that much and I think he has a pretty good offensive mind off the puck.

Overall, I don’t think he’s anything special defensively or offensively. I think he has a good shot at being a decent 2nd pair defensemen but don’t think it’s all that likely he’s better than that and despite the high floor suggestions I could see him not working out.

totally fair. one point of clarification from my end (rereading my original post i suppose it was only a brief "with the puck" line indicating it), i dont mean to imply he doesnt have the freedom to roam or jump up on rushes or anything, totally agreed that he does. im saying that in terms of making controlled breakouts and leading/dictating play in transition, it seems like hes only occasionally allowed to take off with the puck on his stick (largely when theyre down imo). there are plenty of instances where you see him get going (exactly as you said, winding up) only for him to hit his own blue line and either let up or cut it short by making some small lane pass to a teammate when, to me, he couldve kept going with it. and we definitely see these moments of luke-esque rushes, just not all the time. i think he has the speed, evasion, and sufficient enough vision/handling in stride to be able to project these moments to be a larger component of his game long term. perhaps london just doesnt want him dialing it up to 100 all the time yet

 

[StevenToddIves]

The Athletic Staff Mock Draft 2.0

NHL Staff Mock Draft 2.0: Celebrini is No. 1, but where do Levshunov, Silayev, Demidov land?

Who did The Athletic's NHL beat writers pick in their mock draft? In this exercise, we predict the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft.

www.nytimes.com

1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Silayev
4. Lindstrom
5. Demidov
6. Yakemchuk
7. Parekh
8. Buium
9. Iginla

View attachment 881864

11. Dickinson
12. Catton
13. Eiserman
14. Jiricek
15. Helenius
16. Solberg
17. Nygard
18. Hage


View attachment 881865

Yeah, I saw this.

I have to admit -- the only player mentioned who I'd say it's just not possible for the Devils to be idiotic enough to draft would be Connelly. Just look at the post Mailloux fallout in Montreal and realize no intelligent GM will risk this until Connelly is clear and away the most talented guy available. That will most certainly not be at #10 overall.

Again, I don't like Pronman's mock draft at all, although -- as I always say -- I do respect the heck out of Pronman. But the idea that the Devils would pass on Dickinson for Sennecke in particular and, secondarily, Catton for Sennecke? I mean Dickinson falling to #10 is almost a pipe dream of precisely what Fitzgerald seems to covet. As for Catton, he literally plays a similar style to Sennecke and literally does everything better than Sennecke except "be over six-feet tall". I like Sennecke as a 15-20 pick and get that some people like him higher, but I'm not sure how anyone could watch Sennecke and Catton and come away with the idea that Catton is the guy to pass on.

It's so all over the map. I'd love to get Nygard, if only that eventd says his play is benefitted by tight checking, physical games - that sounds more like playoff hockey.

But Hage is intriguing since he wasn't really on the radar for a pick here until recently. Sounds good.

Eventd/STI/Guadana - is Hage as close to making the roster as Nygard and Helenius would be? I'd really like someone who can come to camp and have a legitimate shot at making the team this year.

I'm the biggest Hage fan on the continent right now, but no -- he's not nearly as close to the NHL as Nygard or Helenius. His skill set is extremely high, but he lost a lot of his last two years of development to injury and tragedy, and his game was less polished to begin with.

 

[Better Call Sal]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800954542705582258

Suppose this makes the most sense to post here. Draft party appears it'll be down the shore again, never been to this location though.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I would be pretty disappointed if we pick Dickinson. Not sure why he’s rated so highly. His skating is pretty overrated and he doesn’t bring any real high-end upside IMO.

@evnted answered this quite well, but I'm just going to double up and say Dickinson's skating in particular is not what should be criticized. The kid is a terrific skater -- not elite like a Makar or Quinn Hughes, but absolutely a huge plus and a major reason teams will want to draft him.

I think if we're weighing the 2024-class defensemen against each other we have a lot of high-end skaters who are just shy of "elite". All of Levshunov, Silayev, Dickinson, Solberg, Takemchuk, Buium, Parekh -- skating is absolutely a strength with all these kids. I think there might be a bit of discrepancy with how to rank them as skaters, but that's only because they are all so good and so close in that regard. It's just a very strong class on the back-line.

I’m skeptical he gets to 10. Those comments in the scouts/execs excerpts were very positive in terms of him being a sure fire NHL player. No real risk other than what pair he can level up to. Some team is going to see 6’3” 200+ and great skater and defender and take a chance on the offensive upside. Guys like Parekh who don’t offer a strong B game are much riskier since if they don’t hit they become fringe guys. To me this really seems like a draft where I’d be willing to go from 10 into the teens if it landed NJ a second round pick or a solid prospect. Somebody good is going to fall.

Parekh's upside is Erik Karlsson, his downside is Shayne Gostisbehere.

I probably have him ranked too low because of my preference for more well-rounded defensive types. But Parekh is not some "offensively gifted" guy who does not play D -- he is truly special on the offensive side of the puck.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

. Just look at the post Mailloux fallout in Montreal and realize no intelligent GM will risk this until Connelly is clear and away the most talented guy available.

I’m not sure how you can say this when the fallout ended up passing fairly quickly and the Mailloux pick itself may end up turning out pretty well.

@evnted answered this quite well, but I'm just going to double up and say Dickinson's skating in particular is not what should be criticized. The kid is a terrific skater -- not elite like a Makar or Quinn Hughes, but absolutely a huge plus and a major reason teams will want to draft him.

I think if we're weighing the 2024-class defensemen against each other we have a lot of high-end skaters who are just shy of "elite". All of Levshunov, Silayev, Dickinson, Solberg, Takemchuk, Buium, Parekh -- skating is absolutely a strength with all these kids. I think there might be a bit of discrepancy with how to rank them as skaters, but that's only because they are all so good and so close in that regard. It's just a very strong class on the back-line.

I don’t think most of those guys are close to being just shy of elite skaters personally.

 

[StevenToddIves]

He isn’t guaranteed to be a top 4 defensemen and there’s a good chance he won’t be one by 2026. His game needs refinement and he may even spend some time in the AHL.

A guy like Buium is exactly why I wouldn’t want to take Dickinson at 10. He’s better now and I think he’s a much more talented player who will be better in 2 years and on. Just an overall better and more talented prospect. Dickinson isn’t safer or more ready than him at all nor does he have the upside Buium has IMO. There’s just gonna be better options at 10.

We could argue a lot of these bright young 2024 defensemen as the "biggest upside" but Zeev Buium -- who I have ranked as the top D in the draft -- is certainly one. If they all hit their talent ceilings, Buium might not score as much as Parekh and Levshunov, but he'll be far better than Parekh defensively and far better than Levshunov in transition. He might not be the shut-down lock of a Silayev or Solberg, but he'll score more than those guys. He's just extremely capable in every effect of the game, and he's just so smart in the application of his capability.