HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Habs Halifax]

Looks deeper than just the stat sheet. He is not just a defensive rock. He can move the puck quite well, in fact, extremely well for a 17YO his size in the KHL. He even has some dangles in him. He just need to improve his shot to be a sincere threat offensively. Vision not that bad too.

Yes, I know. But that's what a strong top 4D is. When I say strong, I don't just mean physically. I mean the higher end of the top 4D level. I think his value is something around Reinbacher. Not impossible they reach top paring but that's a high level to reach IMO. Top pairing and 1C are two of the biggest assets and hardest to acquire. No way there is multiple top pairing guys in this draft. Remember how much Byram was pumped?

He has to show more offensive numbers for me. I fell into this trap with KK when trying to pump his potential back when. Cherry picking past guys who end up breaking out doesn't fool me anymore.... KK narrative with Barkov and Kopitar. Exceptions don't quantify the general rule.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You're doing what I did with Slafkovsky's pre-draft output. I've since adjusted my tools to better account for demonstrated abilities vs demonstrated production.

If he had production to go with what he already has, he'd be a lock at 1OA.

Weaker draft and Slaf is not a top line forward just yet. He's showing signs of it and his international numbers were very good. Against Men too. Lots of us think he keeps improving and I hope so but what happens when he tops out at 30/30? 30 goals and 30 assists? Does Slaf reach top line stud status? 80+ pts? Many of us hope so and his good 2nd half last year is a good sign but he has a long way to go yet.

You can bring up Slaf and I can bring up KK and Byram. There is no way there is that many top pairing guys in this draft. If I'm wrong, it will go down as the best D draft in the history of the NHL.

I think Silayev is a safe top 4D pick. He's stable in terms of knowing how to play D and he's showing that against men. With Slaf, he was showing his offensive side with men. A little different situations and areas of strength.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

None of this screams offensive upside to me. Like I said, it runs deeper than just the KHL this past year. I see a strong top 4D like Reinbacher. Not impossible he can't be top pairing but not probable. I would not bet money on Silayev putting up the offensive numbers to support top pairing status.

This is why we see him in some top 5 lists and not in others. Could go anywhere from 2-8 IMO.

If Silayev puts up 40-60 pts in the NHL, that means he breaks out offensively where his current resume doesn't show any signs of it. Look deeper than just the KHL.

It's not that I am necessarily disagreeing with you but that he did show a significant uptick this year as 11 points is huge for an 18 year old dman in the KHL. Now, this could just be a statistical anomaly and perhaps he was the beneficiary of some coincidental production but with his size and skating I would not be so quick to limit his offensive potential.

He definitely falls into a wild card category for me and it will be interesting to see what he can do when he is encouraged to do more offensively in North America. This whole top 4 vs top pairing narrative is generally silly as he could very well be a top pairing dman on a Cup winning team even if he doesn't develop much offensively as he could be a dominant defensive partner to a high end offensive dman. His size and skating will make him more valuable than your typical defensive dman archetype and will allow him to play further up in the lineup.

Anyways...I am just spit balling and generally agree with you on Silayev, the only difference is I perhaps see a greater potential for him to be more than a shutdown dman who plays middle of the lineup minutes.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Yes, I know. But that's what a strong top 4D is. When I say strong, I don't just mean physically. I mean the higher end of the top 4D level. I think his value is something around Reinbacher. Not impossible they reach top paring but that's a high level to reach IMO. Top pairing and 1C are two of the biggest assets and hardest to acquire. No way there is multiple top pairing guys in this draft. Remember how much Byram was pumped?

He has to show more offensive numbers for me. I fell into this trap with KK when trying to pump his potential back when. Cherry picking past guys who end up breaking out doesn't fool me anymore.... KK narrative with Barkov and Kopitar. Exceptions don't quantify the general rule.

There very well could be multiple top pairing dmen in this draft as it has certainly happened enough in the past and using Byram as an example of a failed projection is very premature at 23 years of age when he just played this entire season at 22 years of age.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's not that I am necessarily disagreeing with you but that he did show a significant uptick this year as 11 points is huge for an 18 year old dman in the KHL. Now, this could just be a statistical anomaly and perhaps he was the beneficiary of some coincidental production but with his size and skating I would not be so quick to limit his offensive potential.

He definitely falls into a wild card category for me and it will be interesting to see what he can do when he is encouraged to do more offensively in North America. This whole top 4 vs top pairing narrative is generally silly as he could very well be a top pairing dman on a Cup winning team even if he doesn't develop much offensively as he could be a dominant defensive partner to a high end offensive dman. His size and skating will make him more valuable than your typical defensive dman archetype and will allow him to play further up in the lineup.

Anyways...I am just spit balling and generally agree with you on Silayev, the only difference is I perhaps see a greater potential for him to be more than a shutdown dman who plays middle of the lineup minutes.

It's good numbers in the KHL at his age yes. But that's difficult to project because I feel he was focusing on the D side.

Chances he turns into a Hedman? Effective at both ends? What odds or % would you put towards that? How would you compare their offensive resumes (pre draft)? Similar?

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

To steal a quote from Draft Day, defense doesn’t make a splash and fans want to get wet

 

[Deebs]

GM, look like Anton is the flavour of the day. Happy Silayev Jean Baptiste folks

https://x.com/i/web/status/1746202824894042233

There's more flavours of the day on here than at a Baskin Robins

 

[Habs Halifax]

There very well could be multiple top pairing dmen in this draft as it has certainly happened enough in the past and using Byram as an example of a failed projection is very premature at 23 years of age when he just played this entire season at 22 years of age.

Are you willing to put faith that Byram turns into a top pairing stud after the age of 22 and know what we know today? That was just one example of someone who was pumped very high and many liked him a lot!

I would not bet more than 1 or 2 top pairing guys in this draft. Lots of top 4D though.

The 2-10 or 2-13 is wild. Lots of talent to choose from on both D and F but very difficult to establish BPA (list one after another).

 

[Jaynki]

Yes, I know. But that's what a strong top 4D is. When I say strong, I don't just mean physically. I mean the higher end of the top 4D level. I think his value is something around Reinbacher. Not impossible they reach top paring but that's a high level to reach IMO. Top pairing and 1C are two of the biggest assets and hardest to acquire. No way there is multiple top pairing guys in this draft. Remember how much Byram was pumped?

He has to show more offensive numbers for me. I fell into this trap with KK when trying to pump his potential back when. Cherry picking past guys who end up breaking out doesn't fool me anymore.... KK narrative with Barkov and Kopitar. Exceptions don't quantify the general rule.

McAvoy best season is 56 points and he is without a doubt a number one defenseman in the league, one of the best also.

Top 4D is underselling the potential of both Silayev and Reinbacher. These two have done elite things, being dominant dman at 17YO in strong euro league playing prominent roles in their team.

Not everyone will reach their ceiling its one thing, but one cannot disregard what these guy have done in their DY. We are all enamored with Guhle yet Silayev is not that far from him right now being 4 years younger.

It is not about cherry picking guy to fit the narratives one way or the other. But the draft ultimately is a bet on upside and Silayev certainly has elite upside, not just "top-4". No certainty anyone reaches it, but in terms of upside, this 6ft7 elite skater is at the top of this class.

 

[1000eeer]

PLAN A

1. We draft Demidov
2. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Demidov- Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Hutson - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

PLAN B

If Demidov is off the board when we pick

1. We draft Dickinson
2. We trade Mailloux and WPG first rounder for Zegras
3. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Zegras - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Dickinson - Reinbacher
Hutson - Guhle

PLAN C

If Demidov and Dickinson are off the board when we pick

1. We draft Buium
2. We trade Hutson for Zegras
3. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Zegras - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Buium - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

PLAN D

If Demidov, Dickinson and Buium are off the board when we pick

1. We draft Ignila or Lindstrom
2. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Ignila/Lindstrom - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Hutson- Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux



Lots of possibilities....

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Bobby Mac's list comes out tomorrow, so we might finally get some sort of clarity, a whole 2 days before the actual draft This one has definitely been a bit wild.

 

[Habs Halifax]

McAvoy best season is 56 points and he is without a doubt a number one defenseman in the league, one of the best also.

Top 4D is underselling the potential of both Silayev and Reinbacher. These two have done elite things, being dominant dman at 17YO in strong euro league playing prominent roles in their team.

Not everyone will reach their ceiling its one thing, but one cannot disregard what these guy have done in their DY. We are all enamored with Guhle yet Silayev is not that far from him right now being 4 years younger.

It is not about cherry picking guy to fit the narratives. But the draft ultimately is a bet on upside and Silayev certainly has elite upside, not just "top-4".

We can name misses and hits all day long but I bet you the misses will be higher than the hits.

I'm not low on Silayev. I'm just conservative because I've seen too much pumping over the years and his offensive resume is lacking. Expecting him to be a 40-60 pts guy in the NHL is reaching like we did with KK. His offensive numbers were meh as well but lots of Barkov/Kopitar talk in terms of hope.

Bobby Mac's list comes out tomorrow, so we might finally get some sort of clarity, a whole 2 days before the actual draft This one has definitely been a bit wild.

A little more clarity but it won't end there. I suspect his narrative will be "unpredictable" like it was in May. Just a few shifting on where players are.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Are you willing to put faith that Byram turns into a top pairing stud after the age of 22 and know what we know today? That was just one example of someone who was pumped very high and many liked him a lot!

I would not bet more than 1 or 2 top pairing guys in this draft. Lots of top 4D though.

The 2-10 or 2-13 is wild. Lots of talent to choose from on both D and F but very difficult to establish BPA (list one after another).

It's really not unusual to see more than 2 top pairing D come out of a draft. 2018 had 4 just in the top 12.

 

[salbutera]

How much do you guys think the Habs care about these NCAA guys pulling these stunt? Fox, Schultz, Gauthier and now McGroarty.

We had to burn a year off Hutson ELC and didn’t that Luke Tuch guy tried to play games couple months ago before signing at the last minute? He wanted a game too to burn a year or something or he’d sign with Buffalo where his brother play?

HuGo & MSL are intimately connected w US Northeast hockey, Habs are well positioned for it not to impact them.

In fact, no player drafted by Habs who played NCAA has ever refused to sign

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's really not unusual to see more than 2 top pairing D come out of a draft. 2018 had 4 just in the top 12.

Does naming one draft year make it usual?

If you have the time, lets quantify it and look at is since 2000? 24 drafts? I'd be curious to see that lists of hits per draft on D (real top pairing types... not fringe types). And lets not spread that out past the top 15 lets say. The hits after 15 is more luck and doesn't really apply to this conversation in terms of how many top pairing there are in the top 13 of this draft.

I'm also very interested in the drafts with this many D in a top 13 or top 15 as well. Some drafts have more forwards than D and vice versa.

 

[Milhouse40]

PLAN A

1. We draft Demidov
2. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Demidov- Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Hutson - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

PLAN B

If Demidov is off the board when we pick

1. We draft Dickinson
2. We trade Mailloux and WPG first rounder for Zegras
3. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Zegras - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Dickinson - Reinbacher
Hutson - Guhle

PLAN C

If Demidov and Dickinson are off the board when we pick

1. We draft Buium
2. We trade Hutson for Zegras
3. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Zegras - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Buium - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

PLAN D

If Demidov, Dickinson and Buium are off the board when we pick

1. We draft Ignila or Lindstrom
2. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Ignila/Lindstrom - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Hutson- Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux



Lots of possibilities....

PLAN E
1. We draft Helenius
2. We all go batshit crazy

 

[417]

Bobby Mac's list comes out tomorrow, so we might finally get some sort of clarity, a whole 2 days before the actual draft This one has definitely been a bit wild.

Should be a calm day

 

[Leto]

Should be a calm day

 

[Mrb1p]

Anyone who's actually watched games live knows it's absolute ass and you can't see shit. Gotta stop pushing those old geezers tales. It's 2024, we have dozens angles in a pinch on TV, we have 4k+++ hd40p2pp TV. Scouting on video, especially with the ability to freeze and even slow frames and rewind is much better than in person.

 

[Milhouse40]

So I've been posting betting odds for the draft for a while.
This morning they finally put up the odds for the 4th overall pick which wasn't available anywhere.
As usual takes this with a grain of salt, it will surely move this week,

- Lindstrom major favourite for 4th overall
- Demidov for the first time is favourite for 5th overall, although it's very close

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

The Habs don't need a top-tier playmaker type of player?

They either need an ultra elite talent like demidov or elite players that play on the inside where the team needs to start playing in order to be effective. Habs have Suzuki, Dach, and Slaf who can make plays and are heavy puck dominant players. Iginla and Lindstrom would compliment this team way more than catton

 

[Deebs]

So I've been posting betting odds for the draft for a while.
This morning they finally put up the odds for the 4th overall pick which wasn't available anywhere.
As usual takes this with a grain of salt, it will surely move this week,

- Lindstrom major favourite for 4th overall
- Demidov for the first time is favourite for 5th overall, although it's very close

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Vegas baby!!!

 

[GrandmaCookie]

Does naming one draft year make it usual?

If you have the time, lets quantify it and look at is since 2000? 24 drafts? I'd be curious to see that lists of hits per draft on D (real top pairing types... not fringe types). And lets not spread that out past the top 15 lets say. The hits after 15 is more luck and doesn't really apply to this conversation in terms of how many top pairing there are in the top 13 of this draft.

I'm also very interested in the drafts with this many D in a top 13 or top 15 as well. Some drafts have more forwards than D and vice versa.

What is a top pairing to you? You're not going to find 4 Norris winner in any top 15 draft.

If we stick to first pairing defenseman, it is not that rare to find 3 solid first pairing defenseman in the top 20.

2003: Suter, Phaneuf, Seabrook, Burns (top 20)

2008: Doughty, Pietrangelo, Karlsson (top 15)

2012: Rielly, Lindholm, Dumba, Trouba (top 10)

2013: Jones, Nurse, Morrissey (top 13)

2015: Hanafin, Provorov, Werenski, Chabot (top 18)

2016: Sergachev, McAvoy, Chychrun (top 16)

2017: Heiskanen, Makar (top 5)

2019: Byram, Seider, York, Harley ( top 18) all are first pairing or on their way

To get 3 or 4 first pairing defenseman out of Silayev, Buium, Dickinson , Levshunov, Parekh and Yakemchuk would not be out of the ordinary.

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

Interesting that Parekh's advanced stats show his defensive game isn't as bad as many have claimed. He struggles on retrievals but is great at breaking up plays and neutral zone defense.

Might be another one of those cases where people galaxy brain a guy who can become a top level defenseman because they focus on a couple obvious flaws rather than their ability to do things no one else is doing.

It’s not Parekh’s D that concerns me.

And Saginaw played great five-man D; very structured and passing lanes became turnover lanes.

Parekh, from what I saw of him, doesn’t like physicality. I saw that stick come up when about to be hit.

That can be ‘fixed’ and I can view his spitting at two Kingston players as a one-time-only thing, but overall he just didn’t promote any “man, the Habs could use this guy!” when I saw him.

Certainly Didn’t earn a ‘character’ label.

 

[Jack Skellington]

So I've been posting betting odds for the draft for a while.
This morning they finally put up the odds for the 4th overall pick which wasn't available anywhere.
As usual takes this with a grain of salt, it will surely move this week,

- Lindstrom major favourite for 4th overall
- Demidov for the first time is favourite for 5th overall, although it's very close

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Draft kings? I don't like sports gambling but some of those odds are pretty good. I wouldn't mind hedging on us not getting Demidov lol