HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Estimated_Prophet]

It is the beauty of a hockey forum .

For me it is not hyperbolic to say that he has the best IQ among forwards.

It is easy to say that Lindstrom is the biggest forwards among him, Catton Celebrini etc..but my grand Mother could say it as well.

I always prefered to watch carefully Iq and vision in hockey cause it is not always in your face like speed and size.

Gretzky had nothing better than everyone else except his IQ and vision so since early 1980's I studied that specific quality in hockey a lot.

A Guy like Ribeiro had nothing...slow like a turtle..skinny like Gretzky, no character no discipline....but what a great IQ he had. I had.him in the first round in 98 wishing that he could take his career more seriously.

On the other hand..Josh Anderson had everything except IQ. The dude is strong...speed, great shot etc..

Look , I watched Berkly a lot and I might be wrong with him but for now I see a wizard a bit like Kucherov man and i prefer him at the same age than Suzuki, Jarvis, Benson...all of them were sub 6.0 but had great IQ as well. All those guys deserved to be drafted higher.

I am confident that few teams will regret to not take Catton him Top 5 but hey I might be wrong..it is the beauty of this forum

I value IQ more than any other trait and I can tell you that arbitrarily anointing Catton as having the highest IQ in the draft is nonsensical. You can't possibly know that and it is far more indicative of confirmation bias than it is of objective comparative analysis. Hockey IQ is a subjective term and can not actually be measured unlike actual IQ. Your claim is the equivalent of me naming ten top astrophysicists and arbitrarily anointing one of them as being the smartest despite not being an astrophysicist myself and only having a small sample from each to base my amateur opinion on. I am entitled to an opinion but it would mean absolutely nothing. If I have a base understanding I could however put them into tiers but certainly could not delineate one from the other with such certainty as you are doing with Catton versus Celebrini et al.

You also really can't get an accurate feel for IQ without watching a player play live as you can not see the entire play unfold.

Watching iso videos will not give you the full picture and while I am not asserting that Catton doesn't have the highest IQ, I am stating there is absolutely no way of definitively saying that his IQ is better than Celebrini's, Demidov's or Helenius'. Making such bold statements without having watched these guys live is just an opinion without merit and adds nothing to the conversation. If you want to say that Catton is in the same tier as the three that I mentioned or more ambiguously in the top tier than that would be far more measured and reasonable.

Trying to explain to me what hockey IQ is and the importance of it is hilarious, I have been a huge proponent of it likely since before you were born. I am always happy to hear that fans are understanding the importance of IQ and are moving it up the queue on their checklist, it is just important to know that you don't know sometimes and not be tempted into hyperbole. When it comes to parsing players who are separated by such fine margins there is no definitively correct or incorrect answer as to who is the smartest and it is better left as an answer that is directed towards a group as opposed to an individual.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I would expect more offense and it runs deeper than just his KHL season. I see a strong top 4D who is more of a shutdown/min eater type.

I'm not low on him. Just not as high as top pairing. Possible yes but I have lower odds with him than others to reach that level.

Silayev could very well be a competent offensive player or he could be a primarily defensive player.....such is the case with young dmen. His offensive output in the KHL was historically very good for an 18 year old. That being said, you are correct in saying that he did not have a history of offensive production prior to the KHL or in the MHL playoffs this season.

Imo this is a player who could suddenly progress a lot but I am not sure that I would bet on it too early in the draft. Dmen are notoriously difficult to project and the potential is certainly alluring with this kid. It will be interesting to see how early he goes, which of course can be said about so many kids in this draft.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Interesting that Parekh's advanced stats show his defensive game isn't as bad as many have claimed. He struggles on retrievals but is great at breaking up plays and neutral zone defense.

Might be another one of those cases where people galaxy brain a guy who can become a top level defenseman because they focus on a couple obvious flaws rather than their ability to do things no one else is doing.

Very difficult to project that to the pro level though. There is massive shifts in challenges when most of these guys turn pro. A very small amount make the transition smoothly and many others take years to develop. Taking time/space away with more competition/physicality changes players and this part is always difficult to project.

If Parekh's D side was sound and it projected well, he would be a top 3 pick in this draft. Probably a Q Hughes type at best. Someone who puts up points and runs a PP but is OK on D. It's the exact reason why Hughes went 7th and he ended up a hit. Who knows with Parekh... the offensive potential is there.

 

[Team_Spirit]

GM, look like Anton is the flavour of the day. Happy Silayev Jean Baptiste folks

https://x.com/i/web/status/1746202824894042233

 

[Habs Halifax]

Silayev could very well be a competent offensive player or he could be a primarily defensive player.....such is the case with young dmen. His offensive output in the KHL was historically very good for an 18 year old. That being said, you are correct in saying that he did not have a history of offensive production prior to the KHL or in the MHL playoffs this season.

Imo this is a player who could suddenly progress a lot but I am not sure that I would bet on it too early in the draft. Dmen are notoriously difficult to project and the potential is certainly alluring with this kid. It will be interesting to see how early he goes, which of course can be said about so many kids in this draft.

None of this screams offensive upside to me. Like I said, it runs deeper than just the KHL this past year. I see a strong top 4D like Reinbacher. Not impossible he can't be top pairing but not probable. I would not bet money on Silayev putting up the offensive numbers to support top pairing status.

This is why we see him in some top 5 lists and not in others. Could go anywhere from 2-8 IMO.

If Silayev puts up 40-60 pts in the NHL, that means he breaks out offensively where his current resume doesn't show any signs of it. Look deeper than just the KHL.

 

[ReHabs]

None of this screams offensive upside to me. Like I said, it runs deeper than just the KHL this past year. I see a strong top 4D like Reinbacher. Not impossible he can't be top pairing but not probable. I would not bet money on Silayev putting up the offensive numbers to support top pairing status.

This is why we see him in some top 5 lists and not in others. Could go anywhere from 2-8 IMO.

You're doing what I did with Slafkovsky's pre-draft output. I've since adjusted my tools to better account for demonstrated abilities vs demonstrated production.

If he had production to go with what he already has, he'd be a lock at 1OA.

 

[Jaynki]

None of this screams offensive upside to me. Like I said, it runs deeper than just the KHL this past year. I see a strong top 4D like Reinbacher. Not impossible he can't be top pairing but not probable. I would not bet money on Silayev putting up the offensive numbers to support top pairing status.

This is why we see him in some top 5 lists and not in others. Could go anywhere from 2-8 IMO.

If Silayev puts up 40-60 pts in the NHL, that means he breaks out offensively where his current resume doesn't show any signs of it. Look deeper than just the KHL.

Looks deeper than just the stat sheet. He is not just a defensive rock. He can move the puck quite well, in fact, extremely well for a 17YO his size in the KHL. He even has some dangles in him. He just need to improve his shot to be a sincere threat offensively. Vision not that bad too.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Looks deeper than just the stat sheet. He is not just a defensive rock. He can move the puck quite well, in fact, extremely well for a 17YO his size in the KHL. He even has some dangles in him. He just need to improve his shot to be a sincere threat offensively. Vision not that bad too.

Yes, I know. But that's what a strong top 4D is. When I say strong, I don't just mean physically. I mean the higher end of the top 4D level. I think his value is something around Reinbacher. Not impossible they reach top paring but that's a high level to reach IMO. Top pairing and 1C are two of the biggest assets and hardest to acquire. No way there is multiple top pairing guys in this draft. Remember how much Byram was pumped?

He has to show more offensive numbers for me. I fell into this trap with KK when trying to pump his potential back when. Cherry picking past guys who end up breaking out doesn't fool me anymore.... KK narrative with Barkov and Kopitar. Exceptions don't quantify the general rule.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You're doing what I did with Slafkovsky's pre-draft output. I've since adjusted my tools to better account for demonstrated abilities vs demonstrated production.

If he had production to go with what he already has, he'd be a lock at 1OA.

Weaker draft and Slaf is not a top line forward just yet. He's showing signs of it and his international numbers were very good. Against Men too. Lots of us think he keeps improving and I hope so but what happens when he tops out at 30/30? 30 goals and 30 assists? Does Slaf reach top line stud status? 80+ pts? Many of us hope so and his good 2nd half last year is a good sign but he has a long way to go yet.

You can bring up Slaf and I can bring up KK and Byram. There is no way there is that many top pairing guys in this draft. If I'm wrong, it will go down as the best D draft in the history of the NHL.

I think Silayev is a safe top 4D pick. He's stable in terms of knowing how to play D and he's showing that against men. With Slaf, he was showing his offensive side with men. A little different situations and areas of strength.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

None of this screams offensive upside to me. Like I said, it runs deeper than just the KHL this past year. I see a strong top 4D like Reinbacher. Not impossible he can't be top pairing but not probable. I would not bet money on Silayev putting up the offensive numbers to support top pairing status.

This is why we see him in some top 5 lists and not in others. Could go anywhere from 2-8 IMO.

If Silayev puts up 40-60 pts in the NHL, that means he breaks out offensively where his current resume doesn't show any signs of it. Look deeper than just the KHL.

It's not that I am necessarily disagreeing with you but that he did show a significant uptick this year as 11 points is huge for an 18 year old dman in the KHL. Now, this could just be a statistical anomaly and perhaps he was the beneficiary of some coincidental production but with his size and skating I would not be so quick to limit his offensive potential.

He definitely falls into a wild card category for me and it will be interesting to see what he can do when he is encouraged to do more offensively in North America. This whole top 4 vs top pairing narrative is generally silly as he could very well be a top pairing dman on a Cup winning team even if he doesn't develop much offensively as he could be a dominant defensive partner to a high end offensive dman. His size and skating will make him more valuable than your typical defensive dman archetype and will allow him to play further up in the lineup.

Anyways...I am just spit balling and generally agree with you on Silayev, the only difference is I perhaps see a greater potential for him to be more than a shutdown dman who plays middle of the lineup minutes.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Yes, I know. But that's what a strong top 4D is. When I say strong, I don't just mean physically. I mean the higher end of the top 4D level. I think his value is something around Reinbacher. Not impossible they reach top paring but that's a high level to reach IMO. Top pairing and 1C are two of the biggest assets and hardest to acquire. No way there is multiple top pairing guys in this draft. Remember how much Byram was pumped?

He has to show more offensive numbers for me. I fell into this trap with KK when trying to pump his potential back when. Cherry picking past guys who end up breaking out doesn't fool me anymore.... KK narrative with Barkov and Kopitar. Exceptions don't quantify the general rule.

There very well could be multiple top pairing dmen in this draft as it has certainly happened enough in the past and using Byram as an example of a failed projection is very premature at 23 years of age when he just played this entire season at 22 years of age.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's not that I am necessarily disagreeing with you but that he did show a significant uptick this year as 11 points is huge for an 18 year old dman in the KHL. Now, this could just be a statistical anomaly and perhaps he was the beneficiary of some coincidental production but with his size and skating I would not be so quick to limit his offensive potential.

He definitely falls into a wild card category for me and it will be interesting to see what he can do when he is encouraged to do more offensively in North America. This whole top 4 vs top pairing narrative is generally silly as he could very well be a top pairing dman on a Cup winning team even if he doesn't develop much offensively as he could be a dominant defensive partner to a high end offensive dman. His size and skating will make him more valuable than your typical defensive dman archetype and will allow him to play further up in the lineup.

Anyways...I am just spit balling and generally agree with you on Silayev, the only difference is I perhaps see a greater potential for him to be more than a shutdown dman who plays middle of the lineup minutes.

It's good numbers in the KHL at his age yes. But that's difficult to project because I feel he was focusing on the D side.

Chances he turns into a Hedman? Effective at both ends? What odds or % would you put towards that? How would you compare their offensive resumes (pre draft)? Similar?

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

To steal a quote from Draft Day, defense doesn’t make a splash and fans want to get wet

 

[Deebs]

GM, look like Anton is the flavour of the day. Happy Silayev Jean Baptiste folks

https://x.com/i/web/status/1746202824894042233

There's more flavours of the day on here than at a Baskin Robins

 

[Habs Halifax]

There very well could be multiple top pairing dmen in this draft as it has certainly happened enough in the past and using Byram as an example of a failed projection is very premature at 23 years of age when he just played this entire season at 22 years of age.

Are you willing to put faith that Byram turns into a top pairing stud after the age of 22 and know what we know today? That was just one example of someone who was pumped very high and many liked him a lot!

I would not bet more than 1 or 2 top pairing guys in this draft. Lots of top 4D though.

The 2-10 or 2-13 is wild. Lots of talent to choose from on both D and F but very difficult to establish BPA (list one after another).

 

[Jaynki]

Yes, I know. But that's what a strong top 4D is. When I say strong, I don't just mean physically. I mean the higher end of the top 4D level. I think his value is something around Reinbacher. Not impossible they reach top paring but that's a high level to reach IMO. Top pairing and 1C are two of the biggest assets and hardest to acquire. No way there is multiple top pairing guys in this draft. Remember how much Byram was pumped?

He has to show more offensive numbers for me. I fell into this trap with KK when trying to pump his potential back when. Cherry picking past guys who end up breaking out doesn't fool me anymore.... KK narrative with Barkov and Kopitar. Exceptions don't quantify the general rule.

McAvoy best season is 56 points and he is without a doubt a number one defenseman in the league, one of the best also.

Top 4D is underselling the potential of both Silayev and Reinbacher. These two have done elite things, being dominant dman at 17YO in strong euro league playing prominent roles in their team.

Not everyone will reach their ceiling its one thing, but one cannot disregard what these guy have done in their DY. We are all enamored with Guhle yet Silayev is not that far from him right now being 4 years younger.

It is not about cherry picking guy to fit the narratives one way or the other. But the draft ultimately is a bet on upside and Silayev certainly has elite upside, not just "top-4". No certainty anyone reaches it, but in terms of upside, this 6ft7 elite skater is at the top of this class.

 

[1000eeer]

PLAN A

1. We draft Demidov
2. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Demidov- Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Hutson - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

PLAN B

If Demidov is off the board when we pick

1. We draft Dickinson
2. We trade Mailloux and WPG first rounder for Zegras
3. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Zegras - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Dickinson - Reinbacher
Hutson - Guhle

PLAN C

If Demidov and Dickinson are off the board when we pick

1. We draft Buium
2. We trade Hutson for Zegras
3. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Zegras - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Buium - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

PLAN D

If Demidov, Dickinson and Buium are off the board when we pick

1. We draft Ignila or Lindstrom
2. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Ignila/Lindstrom - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Hutson- Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux



Lots of possibilities....

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Bobby Mac's list comes out tomorrow, so we might finally get some sort of clarity, a whole 2 days before the actual draft This one has definitely been a bit wild.

 

[Habs Halifax]

McAvoy best season is 56 points and he is without a doubt a number one defenseman in the league, one of the best also.

Top 4D is underselling the potential of both Silayev and Reinbacher. These two have done elite things, being dominant dman at 17YO in strong euro league playing prominent roles in their team.

Not everyone will reach their ceiling its one thing, but one cannot disregard what these guy have done in their DY. We are all enamored with Guhle yet Silayev is not that far from him right now being 4 years younger.

It is not about cherry picking guy to fit the narratives. But the draft ultimately is a bet on upside and Silayev certainly has elite upside, not just "top-4".

We can name misses and hits all day long but I bet you the misses will be higher than the hits.

I'm not low on Silayev. I'm just conservative because I've seen too much pumping over the years and his offensive resume is lacking. Expecting him to be a 40-60 pts guy in the NHL is reaching like we did with KK. His offensive numbers were meh as well but lots of Barkov/Kopitar talk in terms of hope.

Bobby Mac's list comes out tomorrow, so we might finally get some sort of clarity, a whole 2 days before the actual draft This one has definitely been a bit wild.

A little more clarity but it won't end there. I suspect his narrative will be "unpredictable" like it was in May. Just a few shifting on where players are.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Are you willing to put faith that Byram turns into a top pairing stud after the age of 22 and know what we know today? That was just one example of someone who was pumped very high and many liked him a lot!

I would not bet more than 1 or 2 top pairing guys in this draft. Lots of top 4D though.

The 2-10 or 2-13 is wild. Lots of talent to choose from on both D and F but very difficult to establish BPA (list one after another).

It's really not unusual to see more than 2 top pairing D come out of a draft. 2018 had 4 just in the top 12.

 

[salbutera]

How much do you guys think the Habs care about these NCAA guys pulling these stunt? Fox, Schultz, Gauthier and now McGroarty.

We had to burn a year off Hutson ELC and didn’t that Luke Tuch guy tried to play games couple months ago before signing at the last minute? He wanted a game too to burn a year or something or he’d sign with Buffalo where his brother play?

HuGo & MSL are intimately connected w US Northeast hockey, Habs are well positioned for it not to impact them.

In fact, no player drafted by Habs who played NCAA has ever refused to sign

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's really not unusual to see more than 2 top pairing D come out of a draft. 2018 had 4 just in the top 12.

Does naming one draft year make it usual?

If you have the time, lets quantify it and look at is since 2000? 24 drafts? I'd be curious to see that lists of hits per draft on D (real top pairing types... not fringe types). And lets not spread that out past the top 15 lets say. The hits after 15 is more luck and doesn't really apply to this conversation in terms of how many top pairing there are in the top 13 of this draft.

I'm also very interested in the drafts with this many D in a top 13 or top 15 as well. Some drafts have more forwards than D and vice versa.

 

[Milhouse40]

PLAN A

1. We draft Demidov
2. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Demidov- Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Hutson - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

PLAN B

If Demidov is off the board when we pick

1. We draft Dickinson
2. We trade Mailloux and WPG first rounder for Zegras
3. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Zegras - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Dickinson - Reinbacher
Hutson - Guhle

PLAN C

If Demidov and Dickinson are off the board when we pick

1. We draft Buium
2. We trade Hutson for Zegras
3. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Zegras - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Buium - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

PLAN D

If Demidov, Dickinson and Buium are off the board when we pick

1. We draft Ignila or Lindstrom
2. We use trading chips (matheson) to get Mcgroarty out of WPG

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Ignila/Lindstrom - Dach - Mcgroarty
Newhook - Beck - Roy

Hutson- Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux



Lots of possibilities....

PLAN E
1. We draft Helenius
2. We all go batshit crazy

 

[417]

Bobby Mac's list comes out tomorrow, so we might finally get some sort of clarity, a whole 2 days before the actual draft This one has definitely been a bit wild.

Should be a calm day

 

[Leto]

Should be a calm day