HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[morhilane]

For me the biggest mystery is... why did Silayev drop so much in the rankings? He was bound to be the 2nd or 3rd pick OA at some point.

Lots of amateur/public scouts never had him high to start with. The only place where he's been constantly high is Bob's list (aka NHL scouts survey).

 

[Toene]

Lots of amateur/public scouts never had him high to start with. The only place where he's been constantly high is Bob's list (aka NHL scouts survey).

What it's telling me : stop galaxy-braining it. You got a 6'7 smooth skater. At worst he's gonna be a Tyler Myers, but his upside is way higher

 

[ReHabs]

What it's telling me : stop galaxy-braining it. You got a 6'7 smooth skater : at worst he's gonna be a Tyler Myers, but his upside is way higher

I really recommend reading this guy's take on Silayev. His entire write-up of the draft is great.

NHL Draft Ranking 2024, by Simon St-L.

NHL Draft Ranking 2024, by Simon St-L. - TSLH -

www.toutsurlehockey.com

 

[RationalExpectations]

For me the biggest mystery is... why did Silayev drop so much in the rankings? He was bound to be the 2nd or 3rd pick OA at some point.

I think he rose quickly because he was a big young guy playing in the KHL and putting up points. However after a third of the season the points stopped coming and people started to analyse why. Between my limited viewings and readings, it is due to his transition game being quite average, and his puck moving skill not being great. However he still is a guid with good positioning, very strong, good skater, good hockey IQ. I think 2OA is too high for him because of what I mentioned before but if you are a scout and you believe these flaws only apeared because he is a 17 year old getting tired during his 1st pro season in a demanding league, you should definitely pick him top 2

 

[ReHabs]

I think he rose quickly because he was a big young guy playing in the KHL and putting up points. However after a third of the season the points stopped coming and people started to analyse why. Between my limited viewings and readings, it is due to his transition game being quite average, and his puck moving skill not being great. However he still is a guid with good positioning, very strong, good skater, good hockey IQ. I think 2OA is too high for him because of what I mentioned before but if you are a scout and you believe these flaws only apeared because he is a 17 year old getting tired during his 1st pro season in a demanding league, you should definitely pick him top 2

He's reliable defensively already and at that age, with his physical profile, I don't see him going any lower than 5. We would be lucky to draft him at 5.

Silayev will devour minutes and come out ahead.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He's reliable defensively already and at that age, with his physical profile, I don't see him going any lower than 5. We would be lucky to draft him at 5.

Silayev will devour minutes and come out ahead.

Not sure we can justify BPA from 2-10 in this draft and teams usually go for need in these cases. Just look at the movement and variance in prospect rankings from several sources. It's going to come down to this.

A very steady top 4D eating minutes. Something we already have.
vs
A 80+ points forward. Something we lack.

Only way I'm taking a D is if we feel they are a top pairing stud. Someone effective at both ends. Missing out on a potential 80+ points forward for a top 4D creates roster problems for us. Trying to flip assets in trades later on is also tricky.

 

[ReHabs]

Not sure we can justify BPA from 2-10 in this draft and teams usually go for need in these cases. Just look at the movement and variance in prospect rankings from several sources. It's going to come down to this.

A very steady top 4D eating minutes. Something we already have.
vs
A 80+ points forward. Something we lack.

Only way I'm taking a D is if we feel they are a top pairing stud. Someone effective at both ends. Missing out on a potential 80+ points forward for a top 4D creates roster problems for us.

Silayev's upside is top2 D, not just a steady top4. There are maybe three forward prospects whose pre-draft upside says top3 F: Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, and (imo) Catton. It could be that not one of of Silayev, Demidov, and Lindstrom will make it to 5 but if one of them is there... and he's Silayev... you can't not pick him imo

Obviously we'll see how it shakes out post-draft but you've got to adjust expectations a bit I figure.

 

[Habs Halifax]

For me the biggest mystery is... why did Silayev drop so much in the rankings? He was bound to be the 2nd or 3rd pick OA at some point.

It's because the 2-10 range is full of talent and nobody knows who's the top 6F, top line F, Top 4D, Top pairing are going to be. Lots of projections and different type of angles being taken on the future growth potential for several guys.

Very interesting to see the variations in rankings after Celebrini. All season long too.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Silayev's upside is top2 D, not just a steady top4. There are maybe three forward prospects whose pre-draft upside says top3 F: Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, and (imo) Catton. It could be that not one of of Silayev, Demidov, and Lindstrom will make it to 5 but if one of them is there... and he's Silayev... you can't not pick him imo

Obviously we'll see how it shakes out post-draft but you've got to adjust expectations a bit I figure.

I don't see the points to support it. Yeah, he played KHL at age 17. Romanov had 4 pts with 1 goal in 43 games at age 18.... playing in a support role. What was Silayev's usage this past year? How much min's game and how much PP time? Is he that type?

He would have to start breaking out offensively and his current resume doesn't show it. Doesn't have good MHL numbers either.

I think he is going to be a very strong top 4D who provides more shutdown than offensive upside. That's my read on him.

 

[sandviper]

It's because the 2-10 range is full of talent and nobody knows who's the top 6F, top line F, Top 4D, Top pairing are going to be. Lots of projections and different type of angles being taken on the future growth potential for several guys.

Very interesting to see the variations in rankings after Celebrini. All season long too.

There’s been a few Habs podcasts where they’ve had some scouting analysts and while you kind of never know with players, it sounds like Lindstrom and Demidov project as first liners. Almost all the main D’s being discussed project to be top-pair.

Of course, no forwards may end up being first line, and the D maybe 3/4 guys, but it does sound like the D’s are a more surefire thing than the forwards, outside Celebrini and maybe Demidov. Sorta why you see a lot of mocks have more D in the 2-10 and usually Demidov and Lindstrom in the top-5.

I think Iginla and Sennecke will be good players, but of the two, I think Sennecke will end up being the more productive player.

 

[Sam de Mtl]

Fans prefer offensive upside while scouts like a variety of profiles to build a team. Fans never like the very big guys with less obvious offense, because they see their position as based on size rather than skills.

Scouts like them because the upside is so much higher if you can hit on an enormous guy with skill rather than a small guy with skill.

Silayev has enormous upside if he can develop his offense a little bit. If he doesn't, he is probably still quite a good player.

 

[Habs Halifax]

There’s been a few Habs podcasts where they’ve had some scouting analysts and while you kind of never know with players, it sounds like Lindstrom and Demidov project as first liners. Almost all the main D’s being discussed project to be top-pair.

Of course, no forwards may end up being first line, and the D maybe 3/4 guys, but it does sound like the D’s are a more surefire thing than the forwards, outside Celebrini and maybe Demidov. Sorta why you see a lot of mocks have more D in the 2-10 and usually Demidov and Lindstrom in the top-5.

I think Iginla and Sennecke will be good players, but of the two, I think Sennecke will end up being the more productive player.

I'm willing to bet money that there will be only 1 or 2 guys on D that turn into top pairing and it's difficult to guess who. Way too much talk surrounding most of those guys being top pairing. That's a really high level to reach. Silayev would not be on my list to be one of those guys who reaches top pairing. The points in his development resume are lacking IMO. I think he's a top 4D shutdown/minute eater type.

Same conservative approach can be taken with the forwards as well. Dimidov to me has top line potential but Lindstrom's ability to be top line is not much different than Silayev's ability to reach top pairing.

I see a lot of top 4D and top 6F with the chances a few turn into top of the line-up. BPA just does not exist in terms of popular consensus from 2-10 or 2-13. It does exist according to each team and person's assessment but those lists vary. I expect a fair amount of movement from Bob's final list again.

 

[Jaynki]

I don't see the points to support it. Yeah, he played KHL at age 17. Romanov had 4 pts with 1 goal in 43 games at age 18.... playing in a support role. What was Silayev's usage this past year? How much min's game and how much PP time? Is he that type?

He would have to start breaking out offensively and his current resume doesn't show it. Doesn't have good MHL numbers either.

I think he is going to be a very strong top 4D who provides more shutdown than offensive upside. That's my read on him.

Played 20 min /night and consistently in the top 4. Was his team best dman in the playoff.

We have never seen such a performance from a 17yo dman in the KHL. He performs in uncharted territory.

He is like Dmitry Simashev but taller, bigger and better.

6ft7 and skates like the wind. He is excellent at carrying the puck and don't get blinded by his numbers because a big defenseman like that skating like that is a unicorn profile.

Potential is an elite number one defenseman. We should absolutely draft him at 5 if he is there (he won't) and him and Reinbacher should make an insane top pair for more than a decade.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Interesting that Parekh's advanced stats show his defensive game isn't as bad as many have claimed. He struggles on retrievals but is great at breaking up plays and neutral zone defense.

Might be another one of those cases where people galaxy brain a guy who can become a top level defenseman because they focus on a couple obvious flaws rather than their ability to do things no one else is doing.

 

[FrankMTL]

I really recommend reading this guy's take on Silayev. His entire write-up of the draft is great.

NHL Draft Ranking 2024, by Simon St-L.

NHL Draft Ranking 2024, by Simon St-L. - TSLH -

www.toutsurlehockey.com

It's a good read. He clearly spent a lot of time watching prospects and put a lot of thought in his write ups.

Interesting that he has his tiers at 1, 2-7, 8-11

For those that don't feel like reading (although I suggest you do, as it's a good read), here are the rankings.

1- Celebrini

2- Lindstrom
3- Demidov
4- Silayev
5- Sennecke
6- Yakemchuk
7- Iginla

8- Dickinson
9- Levshunov
10- Buium
11- Catton

12- Solberg
13- Parekh
14- Luchanko
15- Vanacker
16- Greentree
17- Jiricek
18- Helenius
19- Miettinen
20- Eiserman
21- Freij
22- Pulkkinen
23- Chernyshov
24- MBN

25- Marques
26- Hage
27- Basha
28- Boisvert
29- Brunicke
30- Connelly

 

[Habs Halifax]

Played 20 min /night and consistently in the top 4. Was his team best dman in the playoff.

We have never seen such a performance from a 17yo dman in the KHL. He performs in uncharted territory.

He is like Dmitry Simashev but taller, bigger and better.

6ft7 and skates like the wind. He is excellent at carrying the puck and don't get blinded by his numbers because a big defenseman like that skating like that is a unicorn profile.

Potential is an elite number one defenseman. We should absolutely draft him at 5 if he is there (he won't) and him and Reinbacher should make an insane top pair for more than a decade.

I would expect more offense and it runs deeper than just his KHL season. I see a strong top 4D who is more of a shutdown/min eater type.

I'm not low on him. Just not as high as top pairing. Possible yes but I have lower odds with him than others to reach that level.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Bob's list comes out tonight, or did they push it to tomorrow ?

 

[MeanMugging91]

Bob's list comes out tonight, or did they push it to tomorrow ?

Pushed it to tomorrow cause of game 7

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

It is the beauty of a hockey forum .

For me it is not hyperbolic to say that he has the best IQ among forwards.

It is easy to say that Lindstrom is the biggest forwards among him, Catton Celebrini etc..but my grand Mother could say it as well.

I always prefered to watch carefully Iq and vision in hockey cause it is not always in your face like speed and size.

Gretzky had nothing better than everyone else except his IQ and vision so since early 1980's I studied that specific quality in hockey a lot.

A Guy like Ribeiro had nothing...slow like a turtle..skinny like Gretzky, no character no discipline....but what a great IQ he had. I had.him in the first round in 98 wishing that he could take his career more seriously.

On the other hand..Josh Anderson had everything except IQ. The dude is strong...speed, great shot etc..

Look , I watched Berkly a lot and I might be wrong with him but for now I see a wizard a bit like Kucherov man and i prefer him at the same age than Suzuki, Jarvis, Benson...all of them were sub 6.0 but had great IQ as well. All those guys deserved to be drafted higher.

I am confident that few teams will regret to not take Catton him Top 5 but hey I might be wrong..it is the beauty of this forum

I value IQ more than any other trait and I can tell you that arbitrarily anointing Catton as having the highest IQ in the draft is nonsensical. You can't possibly know that and it is far more indicative of confirmation bias than it is of objective comparative analysis. Hockey IQ is a subjective term and can not actually be measured unlike actual IQ. Your claim is the equivalent of me naming ten top astrophysicists and arbitrarily anointing one of them as being the smartest despite not being an astrophysicist myself and only having a small sample from each to base my amateur opinion on. I am entitled to an opinion but it would mean absolutely nothing. If I have a base understanding I could however put them into tiers but certainly could not delineate one from the other with such certainty as you are doing with Catton versus Celebrini et al.

You also really can't get an accurate feel for IQ without watching a player play live as you can not see the entire play unfold.

Watching iso videos will not give you the full picture and while I am not asserting that Catton doesn't have the highest IQ, I am stating there is absolutely no way of definitively saying that his IQ is better than Celebrini's, Demidov's or Helenius'. Making such bold statements without having watched these guys live is just an opinion without merit and adds nothing to the conversation. If you want to say that Catton is in the same tier as the three that I mentioned or more ambiguously in the top tier than that would be far more measured and reasonable.

Trying to explain to me what hockey IQ is and the importance of it is hilarious, I have been a huge proponent of it likely since before you were born. I am always happy to hear that fans are understanding the importance of IQ and are moving it up the queue on their checklist, it is just important to know that you don't know sometimes and not be tempted into hyperbole. When it comes to parsing players who are separated by such fine margins there is no definitively correct or incorrect answer as to who is the smartest and it is better left as an answer that is directed towards a group as opposed to an individual.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I would expect more offense and it runs deeper than just his KHL season. I see a strong top 4D who is more of a shutdown/min eater type.

I'm not low on him. Just not as high as top pairing. Possible yes but I have lower odds with him than others to reach that level.

Silayev could very well be a competent offensive player or he could be a primarily defensive player.....such is the case with young dmen. His offensive output in the KHL was historically very good for an 18 year old. That being said, you are correct in saying that he did not have a history of offensive production prior to the KHL or in the MHL playoffs this season.

Imo this is a player who could suddenly progress a lot but I am not sure that I would bet on it too early in the draft. Dmen are notoriously difficult to project and the potential is certainly alluring with this kid. It will be interesting to see how early he goes, which of course can be said about so many kids in this draft.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Interesting that Parekh's advanced stats show his defensive game isn't as bad as many have claimed. He struggles on retrievals but is great at breaking up plays and neutral zone defense.

Might be another one of those cases where people galaxy brain a guy who can become a top level defenseman because they focus on a couple obvious flaws rather than their ability to do things no one else is doing.

Very difficult to project that to the pro level though. There is massive shifts in challenges when most of these guys turn pro. A very small amount make the transition smoothly and many others take years to develop. Taking time/space away with more competition/physicality changes players and this part is always difficult to project.

If Parekh's D side was sound and it projected well, he would be a top 3 pick in this draft. Probably a Q Hughes type at best. Someone who puts up points and runs a PP but is OK on D. It's the exact reason why Hughes went 7th and he ended up a hit. Who knows with Parekh... the offensive potential is there.

 

[Team_Spirit]

GM, look like Anton is the flavour of the day. Happy Silayev Jean Baptiste folks

https://x.com/i/web/status/1746202824894042233

 

[Habs Halifax]

Silayev could very well be a competent offensive player or he could be a primarily defensive player.....such is the case with young dmen. His offensive output in the KHL was historically very good for an 18 year old. That being said, you are correct in saying that he did not have a history of offensive production prior to the KHL or in the MHL playoffs this season.

Imo this is a player who could suddenly progress a lot but I am not sure that I would bet on it too early in the draft. Dmen are notoriously difficult to project and the potential is certainly alluring with this kid. It will be interesting to see how early he goes, which of course can be said about so many kids in this draft.

None of this screams offensive upside to me. Like I said, it runs deeper than just the KHL this past year. I see a strong top 4D like Reinbacher. Not impossible he can't be top pairing but not probable. I would not bet money on Silayev putting up the offensive numbers to support top pairing status.

This is why we see him in some top 5 lists and not in others. Could go anywhere from 2-8 IMO.

If Silayev puts up 40-60 pts in the NHL, that means he breaks out offensively where his current resume doesn't show any signs of it. Look deeper than just the KHL.

 

[ReHabs]

None of this screams offensive upside to me. Like I said, it runs deeper than just the KHL this past year. I see a strong top 4D like Reinbacher. Not impossible he can't be top pairing but not probable. I would not bet money on Silayev putting up the offensive numbers to support top pairing status.

This is why we see him in some top 5 lists and not in others. Could go anywhere from 2-8 IMO.

You're doing what I did with Slafkovsky's pre-draft output. I've since adjusted my tools to better account for demonstrated abilities vs demonstrated production.

If he had production to go with what he already has, he'd be a lock at 1OA.

 

[Jaynki]

None of this screams offensive upside to me. Like I said, it runs deeper than just the KHL this past year. I see a strong top 4D like Reinbacher. Not impossible he can't be top pairing but not probable. I would not bet money on Silayev putting up the offensive numbers to support top pairing status.

This is why we see him in some top 5 lists and not in others. Could go anywhere from 2-8 IMO.

If Silayev puts up 40-60 pts in the NHL, that means he breaks out offensively where his current resume doesn't show any signs of it. Look deeper than just the KHL.

Looks deeper than just the stat sheet. He is not just a defensive rock. He can move the puck quite well, in fact, extremely well for a 17YO his size in the KHL. He even has some dangles in him. He just need to improve his shot to be a sincere threat offensively. Vision not that bad too.