HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread
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- Jan 18, 2022
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Are you asking why teams would care if a specific source of prospects caused issues with contract planning and even threatened -often enough- to simply not sign their ELC and have their rights expire? You think it doesn't affect a team's analysis of a prospect?
Yeah I think it's a problem for many teams, especially Canadian teams who are given little support by the NHL HQ in sorting out these discrepancies.
I think the Habs have been burned by this at least three times: Hutson, Farrell, and Tuch and it'll certainly affect their evaluation of NCAA players going forward. It might be like with players from Russia: if he's too good to pass on at that draft rank, you take him, but if he's head-to-head with other prospects you will take the other prospect.
Alternatively NCAA has been a great development program for a lot of our players, maybe it’s just worth the headache. Also great for contract management in terms of number of contracts we can have on the flip side.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Bob's final list comes out today right? Very curious where Iggy, Sennecke, Catton end up this time.
Demidov should still be top 3.
Demidov should still be top 3.
- Jan 18, 2022
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Lots of amateur/public scouts never had him high to start with. The only place where he's been constantly high is Bob's list (aka NHL scouts survey).
Toene
Y'en aura pas de facile
- Nov 17, 2014
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What it's telling me : stop galaxy-braining it. You got a 6'7 smooth skater. At worst he's gonna be a Tyler Myers, but his upside is way higher
- Jan 18, 2022
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I really recommend reading this guy's take on Silayev. His entire write-up of the draft is great.
NHL Draft Ranking 2024, by Simon St-L.
NHL Draft Ranking 2024, by Simon St-L. - TSLH -
www.toutsurlehockey.com
I think he rose quickly because he was a big young guy playing in the KHL and putting up points. However after a third of the season the points stopped coming and people started to analyse why. Between my limited viewings and readings, it is due to his transition game being quite average, and his puck moving skill not being great. However he still is a guid with good positioning, very strong, good skater, good hockey IQ. I think 2OA is too high for him because of what I mentioned before but if you are a scout and you believe these flaws only apeared because he is a 17 year old getting tired during his 1st pro season in a demanding league, you should definitely pick him top 2
- Jan 18, 2022
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He's reliable defensively already and at that age, with his physical profile, I don't see him going any lower than 5. We would be lucky to draft him at 5.
Silayev will devour minutes and come out ahead.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Not sure we can justify BPA from 2-10 in this draft and teams usually go for need in these cases. Just look at the movement and variance in prospect rankings from several sources. It's going to come down to this.
A very steady top 4D eating minutes. Something we already have.
vs
A 80+ points forward. Something we lack.
Only way I'm taking a D is if we feel they are a top pairing stud. Someone effective at both ends. Missing out on a potential 80+ points forward for a top 4D creates roster problems for us. Trying to flip assets in trades later on is also tricky.
- Jan 18, 2022
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Silayev's upside is top2 D, not just a steady top4. There are maybe three forward prospects whose pre-draft upside says top3 F: Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, and (imo) Catton. It could be that not one of of Silayev, Demidov, and Lindstrom will make it to 5 but if one of them is there... and he's Silayev... you can't not pick him imo
Obviously we'll see how it shakes out post-draft but you've got to adjust expectations a bit I figure.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
It's because the 2-10 range is full of talent and nobody knows who's the top 6F, top line F, Top 4D, Top pairing are going to be. Lots of projections and different type of angles being taken on the future growth potential for several guys.
Very interesting to see the variations in rankings after Celebrini. All season long too.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I don't see the points to support it. Yeah, he played KHL at age 17. Romanov had 4 pts with 1 goal in 43 games at age 18.... playing in a support role. What was Silayev's usage this past year? How much min's game and how much PP time? Is he that type?
He would have to start breaking out offensively and his current resume doesn't show it. Doesn't have good MHL numbers either.
I think he is going to be a very strong top 4D who provides more shutdown than offensive upside. That's my read on him.
There’s been a few Habs podcasts where they’ve had some scouting analysts and while you kind of never know with players, it sounds like Lindstrom and Demidov project as first liners. Almost all the main D’s being discussed project to be top-pair.
Of course, no forwards may end up being first line, and the D maybe 3/4 guys, but it does sound like the D’s are a more surefire thing than the forwards, outside Celebrini and maybe Demidov. Sorta why you see a lot of mocks have more D in the 2-10 and usually Demidov and Lindstrom in the top-5.
I think Iginla and Sennecke will be good players, but of the two, I think Sennecke will end up being the more productive player.
Sam de Mtl
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- Oct 11, 2021
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Fans prefer offensive upside while scouts like a variety of profiles to build a team. Fans never like the very big guys with less obvious offense, because they see their position as based on size rather than skills.
Scouts like them because the upside is so much higher if you can hit on an enormous guy with skill rather than a small guy with skill.
Silayev has enormous upside if he can develop his offense a little bit. If he doesn't, he is probably still quite a good player.
Scouts like them because the upside is so much higher if you can hit on an enormous guy with skill rather than a small guy with skill.
Silayev has enormous upside if he can develop his offense a little bit. If he doesn't, he is probably still quite a good player.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I'm willing to bet money that there will be only 1 or 2 guys on D that turn into top pairing and it's difficult to guess who. Way too much talk surrounding most of those guys being top pairing. That's a really high level to reach. Silayev would not be on my list to be one of those guys who reaches top pairing. The points in his development resume are lacking IMO. I think he's a top 4D shutdown/minute eater type.
Same conservative approach can be taken with the forwards as well. Dimidov to me has top line potential but Lindstrom's ability to be top line is not much different than Silayev's ability to reach top pairing.
I see a lot of top 4D and top 6F with the chances a few turn into top of the line-up. BPA just does not exist in terms of popular consensus from 2-10 or 2-13. It does exist according to each team and person's assessment but those lists vary. I expect a fair amount of movement from Bob's final list again.
Jaynki
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- Feb 3, 2014
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Played 20 min /night and consistently in the top 4. Was his team best dman in the playoff.
We have never seen such a performance from a 17yo dman in the KHL. He performs in uncharted territory.
He is like Dmitry Simashev but taller, bigger and better.
6ft7 and skates like the wind. He is excellent at carrying the puck and don't get blinded by his numbers because a big defenseman like that skating like that is a unicorn profile.
Potential is an elite number one defenseman. We should absolutely draft him at 5 if he is there (he won't) and him and Reinbacher should make an insane top pair for more than a decade.
SannywithoutCompy
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- Dec 22, 2020
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Interesting that Parekh's advanced stats show his defensive game isn't as bad as many have claimed. He struggles on retrievals but is great at breaking up plays and neutral zone defense.
Might be another one of those cases where people galaxy brain a guy who can become a top level defenseman because they focus on a couple obvious flaws rather than their ability to do things no one else is doing.
Might be another one of those cases where people galaxy brain a guy who can become a top level defenseman because they focus on a couple obvious flaws rather than their ability to do things no one else is doing.
FrankMTL
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- Jan 6, 2005
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I really recommend reading this guy's take on Silayev. His entire write-up of the draft is great.
NHL Draft Ranking 2024, by Simon St-L.
NHL Draft Ranking 2024, by Simon St-L. - TSLH -
It's a good read. He clearly spent a lot of time watching prospects and put a lot of thought in his write ups.
Interesting that he has his tiers at 1, 2-7, 8-11
For those that don't feel like reading (although I suggest you do, as it's a good read), here are the rankings.
1- Celebrini
2- Lindstrom
3- Demidov
4- Silayev
5- Sennecke
6- Yakemchuk
7- Iginla
8- Dickinson
9- Levshunov
10- Buium
11- Catton
12- Solberg
13- Parekh
14- Luchanko
15- Vanacker
16- Greentree
17- Jiricek
18- Helenius
19- Miettinen
20- Eiserman
21- Freij
22- Pulkkinen
23- Chernyshov
24- MBN
25- Marques
26- Hage
27- Basha
28- Boisvert
29- Brunicke
30- Connelly
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I would expect more offense and it runs deeper than just his KHL season. I see a strong top 4D who is more of a shutdown/min eater type.
I'm not low on him. Just not as high as top pairing. Possible yes but I have lower odds with him than others to reach that level.
Gaylord Q Tinkledink
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- Apr 29, 2018
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MeanMugging91
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- Jan 6, 2016
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Pushed it to tomorrow cause of game 7
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