Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Part 2 (Who Do You Want To Draft At #2)

[nbducksfan19]

It sure seems Fantillu

That's exactly how betting lines move. The house's only objective is to get half the money on each side of the line and take their cut while paying off winners with money collected from the losers. If too much money starts coming in on one side, the odds move. It doesn't mean anybody knows anything, just that the money bet is geting lopsided and the house doesn't want that.

This is a half truth. More often than not the money (big money) is coming in because people know something, or think they know something, that gives them an advantage over the House. It may not be the books that know something, but they are certainly reacting to big money movements which are often caused by knowlege.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

It sure seems Fantillu


This is a half truth. More often than not the money (big money) is coming in because people know something, or think they know something, that gives them an advantage over the House. It may not be the books that know something, but they are certainly reacting to big money movements which are often caused by knowlege.

You can speculate why money comes in on either side but the point is the betting establishment only reacts to the amount of money bet on each side. If you want to assume every line movement is because somebody knows something that's fine, but it isn't fact.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

So all 10 scouts on McKenzies list have Fantilli higher than Carlsson including the one who had Michkov at #2 still had Fantilli above Carlsson. Any idea the Ducks should avoid going with the consensus/majority just to be different is how Montreal ended up with Slafkovsky. I wouldn't trade Mintyukov for Slafkovsky.

 

[Masch78]

So all 10 scouts on McKenzies list have Fantilli higher than Carlsson including the one who had Michkov at #2 still had Fantilli above Carlsson. Any idea the Ducks should avoid going with the consensus/majority just to be different is how Montreal ended up with Slafkovsky. I wouldn't trade Mintyukov for Slafkovsky.

Because of the same reason we took Lindholm at #6, while he was around #15 on Bobs list.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Because of the same reason we took Lindholm at #6, while he was around #15 on Bobs list.

Not comparable because the 2012 draft was weak and weak at the top and the first 4 picks sucked.
and Lindholm was a Dman whom they've always had better scouting with.
While 2023 draft according to Madden may be as good as the 2003 draft class.
They didn't pick Lindholm just because they wanted to be edgy, they picked him because they had the facts, scouting and such on him. Same with Detroit and Seider.

Its much different from fans wanting to pick a guy just to be different from the majority, we don't have the information a teams scouting department has, if they make the pick for Carlsson its not because they are trying be different but because according to their info its the best player unless of course its the GM going against the scouts. There must be legit reasons why 10 out of 10 head scouts had Fantilli higher than Carlsson and 1 out of those had Michkov higher than both Fantilli and Carlsson.

 

[nbducksfan19]

So all 10 scouts on McKenzies list have Fantilli higher than Carlsson including the one who had Michkov at #2 still had Fantilli above Carlsson. Any idea the Ducks should avoid going with the consensus/majority just to be different is how Montreal ended up with Slafkovsky. I wouldn't trade Mintyukov for Slafkovsky.

Why even pay scouts? Just have the Owner of the team print out Mckenzies' rankings and go with the highest player available... That would make the fans and HFboards happy...we would probably get A grades in all the reports.

 

[nbducksfan19]

Not comparable because the 2012 draft was weak and weak at the top and the first 4 picks sucked.
and Lindholm was a Dman whom they've always had better scouting with.
While 2023 draft according to Madden may be as good as the 2003 draft class.

It doesn't need to be a direct comparable....every situation is different. The point is that you pay scouts to do their job, and hopefully do it better than others so that it gives you an advantage...and that often means doing the hard thing, breaking away from the consensus.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Why even pay scouts? Just have the Owner of the team print out Mckenzies' rankings and go with the highest player available.

Huh ? As opposed to having them only pick the guy that other teams don't want ?
So lets just draft based on what other teams don't want because thats what you want.
So 10 head NHL scouts is worse than 10 armchair GM fans who think real NHL scouts are uninformed.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

It doesn't need to be a direct comparable....every situation is different. The point is that you pay scouts to do their job, and hopefully do it better than others so that it gives you an advantage...and that often means doing the hard thing, breaking away from the consensus.

That is exactly what I am saying. The Ducks didn't pick Lindholm because they wanted to be different, they did it because according to their scouts he was the best player. A year where the draft is weaker you are gonna see more surprises. Masch wants them to pick Carlsson just to be different like how it looked to outsiders when they picked Lindholm.

So if the Scouts come to the same conclusion as other scouts have, should they just change their mind for no reason and go the opposite of what they believe just to be different ?

The real scouts don't appear to have Carlsson at #2 and you are overreacting because ur guy Carlsson isn't favored by the the 10 actual head NHL scouts that Bob McKenzie interviewed.
The same 10 head NHL scouts which might include someone from the Ducks that Masch doesn't seem to think they know how to do their job.

You've never been in favor of Fantilli despite what you said before. Its like someone saying Heavy Metal is their favorite music but only listens to Country Music. Everyone sees right thru it.

 

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[JohnnyDrama]

That's exactly how betting lines move. The house's only objective is to get half the money on each side of the line and take their cut while paying off winners with money collected from the losers. If too much money starts coming in on one side, the odds move. It doesn't mean anybody knows anything, just that the money bet is geting lopsided and the house doesn't want that.

I know that but my point was for it to change from 7-1 to 3.75 overnight is a decent swing. Likely a combination of the two

 

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[Duck Off]

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but that feels like Anaheim is leaning towards Carlsson, which I'd be really disappointed with. Ever since the Lindholm pick, I've tried to not get too frustrated at who we pick, but I *really* want Fantilli.

 

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[Leonardo87]

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but that feels like Anaheim is leaning towards Carlsson, which I'd be really disappointed with. Ever since the Lindholm pick, I've tried to not get too frustrated at who we pick, but I *really* want Fantilli.

Both players are going to be special. I think Carlsson has a higher floor, where as Fantilli has a higher ceiling, but I think Carlsson will be better offensively. Where as Fantilli will be the better all around player. You are talking about drafting the next.… (some name comparisons I‘ve heard).. Toews/MacKinnon or Malkin/Kopitar, and both of these players can potentially surpass those players.

It really is not an easy choice, but I think the scouts have Fantilli at 2ndOA, because he won the Hobey Baker as a freshman, last player was Eichel then Kariya before him. That’s a huge accomplishment. I think his higher Ceiling gives him the 2ndOA consensus.

As per Carlsson, he has played against men in his league since 16 yo I think? That is also beyond impressive.

I’m happy with either player to be honest.

 

[Static]

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but that feels like Anaheim is leaning towards Carlsson, which I'd be really disappointed with. Ever since the Lindholm pick, I've tried to not get too frustrated at who we pick, but I *really* want Fantilli.

Madden definitely seemed to have more to say about carlsson, but I think we are parsing crumbs.

 

[tomd]

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but that feels like Anaheim is leaning towards Carlsson, which I'd be really disappointed with. Ever since the Lindholm pick, I've tried to not get too frustrated at who we pick, but I *really* want Fantilli.

I guess judging by the adjectives he gave each player, you could make a case that the Carlsson and Smith adjectives were more effusive than the Fantilli adjectives. But they are also pretty accurate in each case.

I wouldn't be upset with a Carlsson pick but I would be totally confused about the type of team PV is looking to build...especially considering the players he selected (and also passed on) last year.

 

[Mr Rogers]

It's gonna be interesting - at this point, I don't think i'd be surprised either way but nothing i read in that article makes me feel that way. I thought he just described each player kind of exactly how fans here would.

 

[GunnarStahl]

the draft simulator is updated with McKenzies list. Idk if I’m sold on Bjarnason, I had a choice between him Gajan and for non goalies was considering Cataford.

 

[tomd]

View attachment 720536

the draft simulator is updated with McKenzies list. Idk if I’m sold on Bjarnason, I had a choice between him Gajan and for non goalies was considering Cataford.

Fantilli and Edstrom would be a fantastic result. All the other picks looks pretty solid.

 

[tomd]

If PV and the Ducks are playing 4D chess then maybe they are trying to put doubt in the minds of Columbus perhaps guessing (or knowing) that the BJ's want Carlsson. In that case, PV may be able to extract something from Columbus to switch 2/3 with the Ducks. Maybe 34OA from Columbus for the Ducks to move to 3rd? Just thinking out loud here...no suggesting it is what is actually happening.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

Don’t think I can do this for five more days, fast forward to our selection

 

[Duck Off]

Madden definitely seemed to have more to say about carlsson, but I think we are parsing crumbs.

I guess judging by the adjectives he gave each player, you could make a case that the Carlsson and Smith adjectives were more effusive than the Fantilli adjectives. But they are also pretty accurate in each case.

I wouldn't be upset with a Carlsson pick but I would be totally confused about the type of team PV is looking to build...especially considering the players he selected (and also passed on) last year.

The part that made me think they were thinking Carlsson was actually this:

When we have gathered all the information, Pat has made his rounds around the league and has all the info there, that's when we'll make the final decision.

Again, I could be reading too much into it, but sure feels like they mean potentially trading out of 2nd OA. I don't think you even consider that if Fantilli is your guy. That and the brief descriptions, which you both alluded to, and Hoven's comments I guess.

 

[duckpuck]

Both players are going to be special. I think Carlsson has a higher floor, where as Fantilli has a higher ceiling, but I think Carlsson will be better offensively. Where as Fantilli will be the better all around player. You are talking about drafting the next.… (some name comparisons I‘ve heard).. Toews/MacKinnon or Malkin/Kopitar, and both of these players can potentially surpass those players.

It really is not an easy choice, but I think the scouts have Fantilli at 2ndOA, because he won the Hobey Baker as a freshman, last player was Eichel then Kariya before him. That’s a huge accomplishment. I think his higher Ceiling gives him the 2ndOA consensus.

As per Carlsson, he has played against men in his league since 16 yo I think? That is also beyond impressive.

I’m happy with either player to be honest.

Interesting take. Not saying you're wrong. But my thought is Carlsson has the higher ceiling and Fantilli the higher floor. With his size and speed/skating, I think Fantilli has a very high floor (because those traits will always translate) whereas you never really know how players are going to adjust coming from Europe to North America and Carlsson's skating is not really elite. I also think theres a higher probability Fantilli remains at Center, though both might end up there. Not suggesting Carlssson is likely to be a bust . . just that there would be more variance in the outcomes.