Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Part 2 (Who Do You Want To Draft At #2)

[Ducks DVM]

He also gives off that Getzlaf vibe(not playstyle, but attitude willingness to play that style of physical game and defend his teamates). Fantilli fits the type of hockey player weve kinda been spoiled with the last 15 years (perry/getz/ryan/kesler etc). Everything about him tracks well in terms of what Duck fans know/love about hockey.

To me Fantilli pays off more when the team is back and playing meaningful games... hes the type of guy thatll change the climate of a game with a big hit or a big play.

Yeah, that’s what I meant by fitting what Verbeek says he wants. He basically described Getzlaf.

I will be honest enough to say that I haven’t watched enough of either to have an informed decision, but I think most of what I’ve seen is Fantilli being the more NHL ready and physical player, and Carlsson being potentially the better long term player.

I’m not gonna complain regardless, but it was easy to get behind Fantilli. I’m just not sure our opinions are necessarily rooted on firm foundations.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Even that ex-scout that was posted here, who had some horrible takes about Carlsson being better than Bedard in 5 years, has a really great take about Fantilli. He said he’s an elite 1st line talent that plays every shift like he’s a 4th liner fighting for minutes. You just can’t pass up that type of character/ skill combination. Don’t get me wrong, I think Carlsson is going to be a stud, but Fantilli has franchise cornerstone written all over him.

Saying “even that guy who I think is an idiot likes him” isn’t a ringing endorsement

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

The concern is that 3 years is the minimum time to get him. The maximum (which, considering the current geopolitical climate, is not an insubstantial risk), is never. He’s a gambler’s pick. I’m too conservative to risk a 2nd overall pick for possibly zero return, but I understand the position. I’d feel considerably better about it without said geopolitical concerns.

Side note - this isn’t license for anyone to go down the geopolitical rabbit hole. Acknowledging that they exist and the ramifications they could have is ok. The ACTUAL geopolitics is still a no-go.

A lot of the contract stuff doesn’t even necessarily overlap with the geopolitical stuff, either. I do think there’s a chance that on some teams he might be over here sooner than in three years(Washington, for one), but in the event he goes somewhere that can’t or won’t strike that deal I think he’s staying for at least four. In three years there isn’t a ton of incentive to come over when he could stay one more year in the KHL, get paid a lot more than he would in the NHL, and then sign a 2 year ELC vs a 3 year one.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

Feels like we’ve reached the smokescreen part of the draft process less than a week out. Could be wrong of course, but still firmly believe Fantilli is the leader in the clubhouse

You're already giving Fantilli the "C' a week before draft day?! That's bold, Ducks fans, very bold.

But it's much better than the worst case scenario of Zegras being Captain.

 

[Trojans86]

Fantili has such a high floor. He could have huge value as a 3rd liner. I think Carlsson has the higher probability of being a 1c but Fantili has the highest upside with his athleticism. I really want Fantili but I trust Madden no matter which way he goes (assuming he has the day here).

 

[tomd]

I was 55/45 or 60/40 in favor of Fantilli before the McKenzie ratings came out today. But after seeing 9/10 scouts ranking him 2nd, I don't know how the Ducks can pass on him. I expected the split to be 5/5, 6/4, or 4/6. A 9/1 split is domination and I'm just hoping the "1" isn't a Ducks scout. Fantilli to Anaheim 100%.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

I was 55/45 or 60/40 in favor of Fantilli before the McKenzie ratings came out today. But after seeing 9/10 scouts ranking him 2nd, I don't know how the Ducks can pass on him. I expected the split to be 5/5, 6/4, or 4/6. A 9/1 split is domination and I'm just hoping the "1" isn't a Ducks scout. Fantilli to Anaheim 100%.

I hope that 1 scout was Arizonas. Their GM once said their scouts had Soderstrom ranked #3 in 2019 ahead of of Seider, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy etc when they traded up to get him.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I was 55/45 or 60/40 in favor of Fantilli before the McKenzie ratings came out today. But after seeing 9/10 scouts ranking him 2nd, I don't know how the Ducks can pass on him. I expected the split to be 5/5, 6/4, or 4/6. A 9/1 split is domination and I'm just hoping the "1" isn't a Ducks scout. Fantilli to Anaheim 100%.

There's still 22 scouts not accounted for. I'll be fine with either, but I really want them to pick who they think is BPA, not what everybody else tells them to think.

 

[tomd]

There's still 22 scouts not accounted for. I'll be fine with either, but I really want them to pick who they think is BPA, not what everybody else tells them to think.

Assuming this was a random sampling of scouts, then one can probably assume that most of the remaining 22 would feel the same. And yes, there is no doubt that the Ducks will take whoever is highest on their board.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

You're already giving Fantilli the "C' a week before draft day?! That's bold, Ducks fans, very bold.

But it's much better than the worst case scenario of Zegras being Captain.

LOL, I meant in terms of the draft selection between Fanta and Leo. I fully expect this team goes without a captain next year, and maybe even the following year until or unless one of the young guys emerge as the clear-cut choice.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Assuming this was a random sampling of scouts, then one can probably assume that most of the remaining 22 would feel the same. And yes, there is no doubt that the Ducks will take whoever is highest on their board.

It’s absolutely not, though. It’s a subset of scouts willing to talk to him, who are certain they won’t lose their jobs if it gets out, and who likely work for franchises who have zero chance of choosing either player. That’s not going to be a truly random distribution.

That doesn’t mean that the same % would NOT be shared by the rest of the league, but one shouldn’t start from a clearly incorrect basis to validate it.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

that's a pretty significant consensus

 

[tomd]

It’s absolutely not, though. It’s a subset of scouts willing to talk to him, who are certain they won’t lose their jobs if it gets out, and who likely work for franchises who have zero chance of choosing either player. That’s not going to be a truly random distribution.

That doesn’t mean that the same % would NOT be shared by the rest of the league, but one shouldn’t start from a clearly incorrect basis to validate it.

None of the factors you mentioned would create implicit bias for or against either player which for statistical purposes means it is a random sampling for purposes of McKenzie's rankings.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

None of the factors you mentioned would create implicit bias for or against either player which for statistical purposes means it is a random sampling for purposes of McKenzie's rankings.

DVM is talking about responder bias, not "implicit bias." If DVM's assumptions are true then no, this isn't a random sampling.

 

[Gliff]

It’s absolutely not, though. It’s a subset of scouts willing to talk to him, who are certain they won’t lose their jobs if it gets out, and who likely work for franchises who have zero chance of choosing either player. That’s not going to be a truly random distribution.

That doesn’t mean that the same % would NOT be shared by the rest of the league, but one shouldn’t start from a clearly incorrect basis to validate it.

It’s actually head scouts and directors of personnel. He has talked about it before.

 

[Boo Boo]

You're already giving Fantilli the "C' a week before draft day?! That's bold, Ducks fans, very bold.

But it's much better than the worst case scenario of Zegras being Captain.

Zegras could be a great captain one day

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Zegras could be a great captain one day

There's such a huge gap between how Zegras is thought of by Ducks fans versus other fans.

 

[Ducks DVM]

It’s actually head scouts and directors of personnel. He has talked about it before.

Is it always the same guys or is it all 32 teams?

 

[Mr Rogers]

The period between the lotto and draft has been dreadfully slow. i cannot wait til it's done and we can get on to talking about prospect camp. hopefully they have that sometime in July and fans are invited.

 

[GunnarStahl]

It should be noted as well since it seems no one mentioned it, but the one scout who did not have Fantilli second, had Michkov there. He had Fantilli third. 10 out of the 10 scouts prefer Fantilli to Carlsson it seems, in this data set.

 

[Kalv]

It should be noted as well since it seems no one mentioned it, but the one scout who did not have Fantilli second, had Michkov there. He had Fantilli third. 10 out of the 10 scouts prefer Fantilli to Carlsson it seems, in this data set.

Well, it takes only 1 from 32 I guess

 

[Vinegar Strokes]

There's such a huge gap between how Zegras is thought of by Ducks fans versus other fans.

It really is funny how he’s perceived by other fans vs. our own.

We see him all the time and know he’s hyper-competitive, driven, willing to work on his deficiencies, and has always been very well liked by his teammates. We also know that he’s incredibly immature and has a lot of work to get to the point where he’s a leader but the potential is clearly there.

Other teams see the tantrums and immediately label him lazy locker room cancer who only cares about his highlight reel.

My favorite is when other fans talk about no team with Zegras on it will win anything even though he led team USA to gold at the WJC as both their primary offensive weapon and their pulse.

 

[JohnnyDrama]

FWIW the odds for Carlsson 2nd ov on Draftkings was 7-1 for all of last week, this morning I checked and its 3.75-1. Still a dog but a bit of a shift, I remember Slafkovsky’s odds slowly moving down leading up last year to the point he was a favourite, these sites can be a good indicator. It’s also possible everyone was betting on Carlsson and it swayed the odds a bit, but I doubt it would move that much

 

[Gliff]

Is it always the same guys or is it all 32 teams?

It’s 10 guys from 10 teams. I believe it’s mostly the same guys.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

FWIW the odds for Carlsson 2nd ov on Draftkings was 7-1 for all of last week, this morning I checked and its 3.75-1. Still a dog but a bit of a shift, I remember Slafkovsky’s odds slowly moving down leading up last year to the point he was a favourite, these sites can be a good indicator. It’s also possible everyone was betting on Carlsson and it swayed the odds a bit, but I doubt it would move that much

That's exactly how betting lines move. The house's only objective is to get half the money on each side of the line and take their cut while paying off winners with money collected from the losers. If too much money starts coming in on one side, the odds move. It doesn't mean anybody knows anything, just that the money bet is geting lopsided and the house doesn't want that.