GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[ArmadilloThumb]

The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2023)

Introducing the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2023 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve (i.e., how much tim…

hockeyprospecting.com

Seems hockeyprospecting has Benson ranked 4th. He might fall to us, and wouldn't cost anything. That would be pretty dern good if you put a lot of stock in their analysis.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I have no idea what it’d take, but I’d be comfortable trading this year’s first round pick along with the next two first round picks (protected) provided that there are no red flags off the ice. He’s a #1 overall talent according to the numbers. You don’t get cheap when you have that opportunity.

Lol holy shit no….3 1sts?!?

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Do we have ANY insight as to what Mahoney et al are targeting other than the Russian Report thing today, and our traditional willingness to take Russians?

How legit is the Russian Report thing? Is that possibly just a guess, or even juat speculative click bait one their part.

Do we know if we took anyone to dinner at the Combine? Or anything else on who we may have talked to already. We could be way off on guessing our list (lots of WHL players in this draft and we have a proclivity to favour picks from there as well).

 

[Langway]

Lol holy shit no….3 1sts?!?

...only to wait like 1000+ days.

 

[Random schmoe]

It would be great if having a single awesome player would make a team good, but you've got to be able to put other good players around them, and paying UFA prices for those other good players (because you've traded all your first round picks) - the ones who actually make it to UFA status - will sure have an impact on quality of depth.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Seems hockeyprospecting has Benson ranked 4th. He might fall to us, and wouldn't cost anything. That would be pretty dern good if you put a lot of stock in their analysis.

Also, I see hockeyprospecting's first paragraph supports my real hope of getting more picks in this years First Round. Getting good/great prospects through a draft NOW means they have a better chance to contribute sooner - or be pieces of a hockey trades in a couple of years if we are are overstocked at a position.

Hockeyprospecting:

"Let me start by saying, analytically, this is one of the deepest top end drafts we’ve ever seen. Generally, there’s not a generational talent in a draft, this one potentially has two. Generally, the really high model favorites only last until the first few picks. This year, you make it to around the early teens before things start to fall off. As well, there’s a number of “above average” producers that would find themselves at the backend of the Top 32 in almost any other year. There’s lots of these that didn’t quite make the cut that I’ve added as honorable mentions."

If there are players we have as targets...try and trade Kuzy for a 1st and 2nd rounder in this years draft. Maybe take the 2nd from that, and use it with the 40 OA to move up to another 1st round pick. Maybe offer two of our THREE 2025 2nd round picks to someone to switch our next year's 1st round pick (protected) for another 1st round pick this year (St Louis has 3 1st round picks). Is there anyone else we might trade for a 1st???

Be creative and aggressive in stocking the prospects.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

This guy still gives me nightmares.

If you can move up a few spots without selling the farm (e.g. don’t trade Miro or McMicahel) then sure. If Michkov really wants to come here he can just give horrific interviews to other teams.

 

[HTFN]

This guy still gives me nightmares.

If you can move up a few spots without selling the farm (e.g. don’t trade Miro or McMicahel) then sure. If Michkov really wants to come here he can just give horrific interviews to other teams.

Somebody get my interview notes to him. I really think "breeds mosquitoes" is the biggest legal red flag I can think of but I'm happy to spend more time in the think tank.

I had to pivot from the animal-killing, coal-rolling, lifted-truck driving persona because I was too worried about Calgary trading up for him but I'm sure I can come up with some more affronts to humanity.

 

[twabby]

Lol holy shit no….3 1sts?!?

Yes. I’d give up a lot for him. I don’t care about waiting 3 years if he has a good chance of becoming generational.

I think people value mid to late first round picks way too highly. Lots of garbage in the mid to late first round.

 

[RandyHolt]

This guy still gives me nightmares.

If you can move up a few spots without selling the farm (e.g. don’t trade Miro or McMicahel) then sure. If Michkov really wants to come here he can just give horrific interviews to other teams.

Is that Volchkov?

Alexander Volchkov 1st round pick of the Washington Capitals.

Alexander Volchkov 1st round pick of the Washington Capitals.

www.gettyimages.no

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yes. I’d give up a lot for him. I don’t care about waiting 3 years if he has a good chance of becoming generational.

I think people value mid to late first round picks way too highly. Lots of garbage in the mid to late first round.

You’re talking about trading 1sts that potentially are very high…..and even if “protected” eventually you have to pony up….and if this team continues to decline, which is pretty likely (unless we see some GMBM miracles), you could be talking 2 pick that set this team back 5-10 years if they continue to slide and are very high picks.

This guy still gives me nightmares.

If you can move up a few spots without selling the farm (e.g. don’t trade Miro or McMicahel) then sure. If Michkov really wants to come here he can just give horrific interviews to other teams.

Get out of my nightmare….

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Is that Volchkov?

Alexander Volchkov 1st round pick of the Washington Capitals.

Alexander Volchkov 1st round pick of the Washington Capitals.

www.gettyimages.no

Yessir. I am still bitter.

 

[Roshi]

...only to wait like 1000+ days.

While value on twabbys process seems excessive at first look, i cant say he doesnt have a point.

If you believe Mitchkov is next gen talent and on bar with Bedard its easily worth 3x 1sts and the wait.

Lets put it this way, would we give CMM, Lapierre and 8th for Bedard? Bit of an hyperbole, but thats basically 3x 1sts.

 

[YippieKaey]

Somebody get my interview notes to him. I really think "breeds mosquitoes" is the biggest legal red flag I can think of but I'm happy to spend more time in the think tank.

I had to pivot from the animal-killing, coal-rolling, lifted-truck driving persona because I was too worried about Calgary trading up for him but I'm sure I can come up with some more affronts to humanity.

He wears flip-flops with socks. He rides a unicycle and he frequently refers to himself as an "alpha male"?

 

[Calicaps]

While value on twabbys process seems excessive at first look, i cant say he doesnt have a point.

If you believe Mitchkov is next gen talent and on bar with Bedard its easily worth 3x 1sts and the wait.

Lets put it this way, would we give CMM, Lapierre and 8th for Bedard? Bit of an hyperbole, but thats basically 3x 1sts.

it's not because the Caps have (sadly) a high chance of picking top 10 next year and the year after. Lappy and McMike were late firsts. So by that metric, the three 1sts you're giving up are way more valuable than those 2 prospects. Totally different.

But also, there's a risk management aspect here. Sure, if you could be certain that Michkov will 1. be a generational talent and 2. play a long NHL career, then you take that risk. But you cannot be certain. He could be Yakupov or Lindros. Any number of things can happen to make the reality veer off from the projection.

So you have to manage the risk. And 3 high firsts is too much. What if you're wrong? Then you've crippled the franchise for at least a decade.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We do not trade future 1st rounders. Any thing else ill listen to but 1st rounders in our tank years are a fast no.

 

[Acallabeth]

I don't think moving up from #8 to #4 or #5 will cost two 1sts anyway if the Sharks or Habs don't want Michkov, and if they do, they won't trade down.
If the FO is serious about that competitiveness, 2024 1st should be in play, as it's unlikely a prospect on the level of Michkov or several other notable prospects in this year's (supposedly deep) draft will be available outside of the top 10 next year. They may move that pick anyway for a relatively estabilished roster player.

There hasn't been a player drafted in the top 8 out of a Russian League in 15 years. Michkov will fall.

Take a look at his stats in International junior competitions compared to Svechnikov's.

It's interesting that Svechnikov was 'the next big junior prospect' and 'next Ovechkin' in his early teen years, went 2nd overall (from the CHL). They both played in the U18 in D-2 seasons, and Svechnikov scored 2 points, while Michkov scored, well, 16.

 

[Langway]

What message do you send your new coach and Ovechkin ponying up three firsts for a player three years away regardless of how good they may be? It's not going to happen. That level of hype is unwarranted. This isn't, like, Lindros. I'm not sure Zach Benson won't ultimately have a pretty similar impact. Similar frames, similar high-end offensive IQ. Is the difference really potentially a couple of mid-firsts? Michkov is maybe more resourceful and dynamic but Benson may have the better motor and NA game. As skilled as Michkov is there is the question of to what extent he'll play through heavy contact. Such an aggressive move doesn't make a lick of sense unless they're fully convinced they'd be able to add him much sooner.

When is the last time any player went for that price? Jack Eichel? Yeah, give me Eichel easily between the two. As promising as Michkov has been you'd want more of a sure thing, ideally a bigger frame and certainly more immediacy at this stage of the game for this team. In an absolute vacuum maybe it makes sense. This isn't that. I get lusting after high-end ability but this team can't afford that wait unless it falls in their laps or the cost is relatively minimal. Relying on Michkov to be a clear heir apparent while things potentially wither in the meantime would be negligent. They've often been very aggressive to land their targets in the past but hard to believe they would be that aggressive unless they know a lot more than we do.

I don't doubt Michkov slides to 8 and not just due to the contract. The whole Russian angle is a problem for teams. Not just the geopolitical uncertainty but the lack of face-to-face access. There's Zoom but helping to steer his development, however lightly, over the next few years could be a big obstacle for teams. They would largely have to bank on SKA doing it right and it working out. It's not a lock. Whereas there's an opportunity for teams to be far more hands-on with anyone else available (aside from other Russians depending on their contract status). One meeting during draft week seems not enough to firmly silence the associated risks. You can get a sense of the person but the basic situation remains the same either way.

 

[Michoulicious]

There hasn't been a player drafted in the top 8 out of a Russian League in 15 years. Michkov will fall.

Take a look at his stats in International junior competitions compared to Svechnikov's.

Michkov had 12 goals in 7 games at U18 as a frickin 16 y old.

Svechnikov had 3 goals in 5 games as a 17 y old.

Michkov is the best Russian prospect since Ovechkin/Malkin, it is not really debatable. If he falls it has nothing to do with his talent.

 

[twabby]

No one’s saying give up 2 additional firsts to get Michkov if it’s unnecessary. Surely Mac will be able to gauge the intent of other teams and be able to stand pat if Michkov slides.

I don’t really care about frame. I care about scoring. This is DeBrincat all over again. Except from an equivalency standpoint Michkov is like a million times the player DeBrincat is. Well not a million, but several tiers above him.

What message do you send Ovechkin if you draft anyone with #8 overall? It doesn’t help him. He’ll be 40 years old by the time that pick helps him, and that help will be minimal at first. I’m fine with trading the pick, even if Michkov is available at #8. But drafting someone like Dvorsky would be poor asset management given Ovechkin’s time left in DC. Go all in on the next era of Capitals hockey and draft a franchise talent, or support the current era. That’s what I say.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I'm not sure Zach Benson won't ultimately have a pretty similar impact. Similar frames, similar high-end offensive IQ. Is the difference really potentially a couple of mid-firsts? Michkov is maybe more resourceful and dynamic but Benson may have the better motor and NA game.

Exactly. Maybe Michkov scores 45- 50 every year, but maybe Benson scores 30 - 35 each prime year, AND whoever you choose next year with the 1st can do 25 year, and same with the one after, while CMM gets to 30 a year and Lappy gets 20 and we then trade him as part of a package for a top D because at that point we are overstocked.

Add to that if we could get an additional 1st this year for Kuzy and use one of the THREE 2025 2nd round picks to move from 40 to 34 to grab another asset we have our eye on.

For a team in the Caps situation giving up many really good potential assets for one superstar is putting your eggs in one basket, keeps you prospect poor, and limits flexibility on the trade market. We need to fill the prospect pool with THIS draft as much as possible.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

And on helping Ovi... reality is you tell him we lower expectations this year with younger players taking full time roles, and hope that means an ergergized environment that could be fun, fast, and competitive most games. And tell him it gets better with Miro next year and that we are very good by the year after that when whoever we draft this year joins full time.

I'm sure they have had the conversation with Ovi about what does he want to do after the contract ends (regardless of the record). I think he loves playing and winning, and if we do what I'm suggesting, he could sign any number of limited role, one year deals and hoists a couple more Cups with his kids watching.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

You also tell Ovi... look at the Bears. Core groups that compete at the top of AHL often means that soon translates to the big club.

I think many are underestimating how quickly we can turn this around. Deepening the pool now only reinforces that.

 

[itsjustsurvival]

It would be really hilarious, if Michkov falls to Washington and also turns out to be a really well adjusted kid with a great attitude. A) Because they lucked into a nice talent. B) I'll buy into the cloak/dagger disinformation theories. Which is awesome, shady, but awesome.

 

[Langway]

NHL Mock Draft: Corey Pronman picks all seven rounds

Corey Pronman projects every pick in the 2023 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

8.Washington Capitals: Matvei Michkov, RW, Ska St. Petersburg (RUSSIA) The often-asked question in the league is whether this is Michkov’s floor. Some are convinced there is no way he gets by Washington. Some in the league are less sold he’s their guy. I can easily see one of the U.S. program kids or Nate Danielson otherwise. If Dvorsky doesn’t go to Arizona I don’t see him getting by Washington at No. 8....

40. Washington: Kalan Lind, LW, Red Deer (WHL).

The tea leaves suggest ARI would probably take Leonard over Dvorsky if MTL doesn't take him at 5 and it would shift the question to who PHI likes at 7. At 40 I'd probably take Halttunen, Cristall, Gauthier, Heidt or one of the goalies over Lind. Scott Ratlaff not going until the fifth round (and to Washington) seems pretty absurd. He didn't play a lot behind Milic but he's a high-end talent.