GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[EroCaps]

I know there are a lot of unknowns and smokescreens entering the draft, but I’m pretty firmly in one of two camps:

1. Draft Michkov by any means necessary. Move up if possible. He’ll be worth it. If there wasn’t the Russia-factor there’d be legitimate debate over whether he should go #2 over Fantilli, who himself would be a good #1 overall in many years. Michkov’s equivalency numbers put him in the same neighborhood as Bedard.

2. Trade the pick. I’m not interested in lower upside guys you won’t help for years when Ovechkin is still here. Dvorsky does nothing for Ovechkin. Trading the pick would.

Michkov is the one name I’d be willing to take and wait on because he has legitimate franchise player potential. No one else who might be available to the Capitals has the level of upside available where I’d want them to hold the pick.

Seconded.

Michkov has the hockey IQ and skill set to be a superstar.

Unless he’s a complete locker room cancer I’d be pestering San Jose and Montreal.

And the players available at 8 likely won’t crack the league and be difference makers for 3 years, anyways.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

If you are assessing historical value of 8 OA you need to consider 8 0A AND all the players selected after that. Can you post a list of all players drafted 8 OA and LATER from 2010 who have at least 82 NHL games. That is the pool any given GM had to choose from at 8 OA over those years.

I contend the Caps can get Cup competitive quickly with good picks from THIS draft, followed by hockey trades in a year or two, and smart UFA signings one to 3 years out. Im also operating under a reasonable expectation that Ovi will want to continue in some on ice role with the Caps a few years longer than the current contract.

I suppose we will have to agree to disagree (again, I'm all in on taking Michkov at 8 OA, but not trading up, or trading the pick).

Except we all want the Caps to do great.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

HFBoards and hockey media were creaming themselves over the 2012 NHL draft for more than a year before it started, calling it one of the strongest drafts.

Ironically, Caps selected Forsberg at 11 and Willson at 16. I guess there was the potential to ask to trade up for the highly touted Russion at 1 OA that year, but we didn't.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Yak... wow...

"Leading up to the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, Yakupov was the highest-rated player available and was expected to be selected first overall. Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke said later that Yakupov gave his team the single worst prospect interview he had ever conducted, referring to the player as "uncooperative and sulky". Burke elaborated, saying "Because we were picking fifth in 2012, and he was outraged we would have the temerity to interview him. Because he was going to go first overall." Burke added that during the draft interview, a fistfight almost developed between Yakupov and John Lilley, Toronto's chief amateur scout."

 

[Calicaps]

Yak... wow...

"Leading up to the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, Yakupov was the highest-rated player available and was expected to be selected first overall. Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke said later that Yakupov gave his team the single worst prospect interview he had ever conducted, referring to the player as "uncooperative and sulky". Burke elaborated, saying "Because we were picking fifth in 2012, and he was outraged we would have the temerity to interview him. Because he was going to go first overall." Burke added that during the draft interview, a fistfight almost developed between Yakupov and John Lilley, Toronto's chief amateur scout."

That is hilarious.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

That is hilarious.

It is. In no way do I think Michkov is that. I defer to Mahoney, GMBM, and maybe Ovi to do the due diligence.

 

[Oilers in NS]

I think if Caps draft Michkov, he will come over sooner then later because of the OV factor.

What did u Caps fan think of Brown. He was hurt early but I believe he played a few games

 

[Oilers in NS]

I think if Caps draft Michkov, he will come over sooner then later because of the OV factor.

What did u Caps fan think of Brown. He was hurt early but I believe he played a few games

better ignore comment on Brown, only played 4 games

 

[kicksavedave]

Yak... wow...

"Leading up to the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, Yakupov was the highest-rated player available and was expected to be selected first overall. Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke said later that Yakupov gave his team the single worst prospect interview he had ever conducted, referring to the player as "uncooperative and sulky". Burke elaborated, saying "Because we were picking fifth in 2012, and he was outraged we would have the temerity to interview him. Because he was going to go first overall." Burke added that during the draft interview, a fistfight almost developed between Yakupov and John Lilley, Toronto's chief amateur scout."

LOL

I understand that later on, Yakupov was quoted as saying "The Leafs gave me the single worst interview of all the teams that year. I almost had to beat the shit out of the chief scout for asking so many dumbass questions".

 

[HeyMattyB]

1. Draft Michkov by any means necessary. Move up if possible. He’ll be worth it. If there wasn’t the Russia-factor there’d be legitimate debate over whether he should go #2 over Fantilli, who himself would be a good #1 overall in many years. Michkov’s equivalency numbers put him in the same neighborhood as Bedard.

So what would it take? Would we be willing to pull the trigger on #8 + Miro + (another top prospect or young player) for #4 or #5? If so, how easy would it be for another team to beat that offer?

 

[Roshi]

While i completely agree that draft picks are ridiculously overrated and theres no guarantees a guy like Dvorsky or Benson will ever be as good of a player than what trading the pick could get us, but I dont think its fair to just look back at the exact #8 when evaluating what might be there. Id rather range it something like 6-15 or whatever. Theres going to be top end talent there, especially in a deep draft. You just have to make it count.

Id be fine trading the pick if Michkov is out of the board. Have somewhat suggested we should several times. However the feel is we are going to keep the pick and thats fine too.. so ill just keep focusing for the D Day and who BM will take.

I see it as theres no need to overthink it by reaching. After the ”big 5” I have a tier that has 3 names and one or two that are close. Just leave it there at 8 and no need to look further down. Its 6) Leonard 7) Benson 8) Reinbacher for me. I really want high end offensive talent, but Reinbacher would be pretty good consolidation price if all the 7 guys on the list should go in order.

 

[Random schmoe]

Max I'd be willing to offer for 5 is 8, 40, and a third next year. And that won't do it.

(By Dom Lusczhzvzvzvzn's draft value chart attached, that would actually be more than enough to move from 8 to 5 in a normal given year. But I'm guessing this year the value of 5 will be higher. Montreal could rightfully try to 'value' that as #2 or #3, given Michkov's talent.)

 

[Random schmoe]

I still fully expect one of the teams at 5, 6, or 7 - if MM is still on the board - to pick him or trade the pick to someone who will.

(MM... Eminem... Pick 8... 8 Mile ... sorry, my brain went there... I was trying to squeeze some lyrics in, but none fit or were decent for public company, luckily.)

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

But I'm guessing this year the value of 5 will be higher. Montreal could rightfully try to 'value' that as #2 or #3, given Michkov's talent.)

I agree, at a point you get diminishing returns.

I think Milo has very high upside. Add sum-of-the parts type stars this draft and we get closer.

 

[Random schmoe]

Miro was widely considered a top 10 talent last year, and he'd probably be picked in that range in a redraft now that he appears healthy and was able to get out of his KHL contract early. He's got a ton of value, and I wouldn't do it (assuming #8 as well).

 

[twabby]

So what would it take? Would we be willing to pull the trigger on #8 + Miro + (another top prospect or young player) for #4 or #5? If so, how easy would it be for another team to beat that offer?

I have no idea what it’d take, but I’d be comfortable trading this year’s first round pick along with the next two first round picks (protected) provided that there are no red flags off the ice. He’s a #1 overall talent according to the numbers. You don’t get cheap when you have that opportunity.

 

[HeyMattyB]

I have no idea what it’d take, but I’d be comfortable trading this year’s first round pick along with the next two first round picks (protected) provided that there are no red flags off the ice. He’s a #1 overall talent according to the numbers. You don’t get cheap when you have that opportunity.

So picks only? You wouldn't include Miro?

 

[twabby]

So picks only? You wouldn't include Miro?

I’d be less likely to include him because he might have a shot at being an NHLer before Ovie retires. I’d consider trading him though depending on the overall trade cost.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Trouble is with any team ahead of us that thinks we are desperate to get him is going to try fleece us. And if they are AT ALL willing to trade him they won't take him otherwise. If a team ahead of us want him like many here do, they are just going to take him. I do hope Michkov goes all Lindros and tell those teams "not coming until after contract". It might work

GMBM has to negotiate hard. Is a team at 4-6 who don't really want him going to miss out on their real target of Smith/Leonard/whoever because the Caps don't accept ridiculous demands and they want spite us??

And a lot of this might get decided in a span of 5 minutes. Going to be interesting.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So what would it take? Would we be willing to pull the trigger on #8 + Miro + (another top prospect or young player) for #4 or #5? If so, how easy would it be for another team to beat that offer?

FFFFFFFFF that….people are getting way overhyped about this guy.…

 

[Calicaps]

FFFFFFFFF that….people are getting way overhyped about this guy.…

This so much! I'll see your Michkov and raise you Volchkov, Beech, and Veitch, to name just three. Just make the pick at 8 or trade it if there's a blockbuster out there to make the team better now and going forward. But giving away our few good assets to move up for this kid is bananas.

 

[twabby]

FFFFFFFFF that….people are getting way overhyped about this guy.…

The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2023)

Introducing the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2023 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve (i.e., how much tim…

hockeyprospecting.com

His production in the MHL and KHL over his pre-draft year and draft year are off the charts. He, in fact, has the same generational profile as Connor Bedard. Again, every player that has ever had this type of equivalency numbers in their pre-draft year and draft year has turned into a superstar in the NHL.

So you have to wait on him for a while. Hopefully no more than 3 years. But he wants to be in the NHL, he’ll come at some point when he’s able and when he makes his way over here you should expect something in the ball park of Malkin, Ovechkin, Kaprizov, production-wise.

The other equivalency models have him similarly ranked in the ballpark of Bedard.

I don’t think he is overhyped at all. He’s underhyped. It would be an absolute shock if he doesn’t turn into a perennial all star. A very real outcome is that he is a generational player and Bedard/Michkov is the next Crosby/Ovechkin. How could he possibly be underhyped when he’s not going in the top 3 in all likelihood?

 

[Cappy76]

The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2023)

Introducing the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2023 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve (i.e., how much tim…

hockeyprospecting.com

The other equivalency models have him similarly ranked in the ballpark of Bedard.

I don’t think he is overhyped at all. He’s underhyped. It would be an absolute shock if he doesn’t turn into a perennial all star. A very real outcome is that he is a generational player. How could he possibly be underhyped when he’s not going in the top 3 in all likelihood?

Agreed he's being slept on hard. If he's from NA he's a lock for 2nd overall has been said numerous times by in the know people.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

There hasn't been a player drafted in the top 8 out of a Russian League in 15 years. Michkov will fall.

Take a look at his stats in International junior competitions compared to Svechnikov's.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The Hockey Prospecting Top 32 (2023)

Introducing the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2023 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve (i.e., how much tim…

hockeyprospecting.com

The other equivalency models have him similarly ranked in the ballpark of Bedard.

I don’t think he is overhyped at all. He’s underhyped. It would be an absolute shock if he doesn’t turn into a perennial all star. A very real outcome is that he is a generational player and Bedard/Michkov is the next Crosby/Ovechkin. How could he possibly be underhyped when he’s not going in the top 3 in all likelihood?

Ohhh Twabby…you know how many tens of years of NHL drafts I’ve heard this same nonsense? Lol…we’ll see. If he’s that good he’ll be long gone. If he’s not, he’s a “bust” if you dump a bunch of draft and prospect capital on him and he’s not a perennial all star.

I’m in no way saying he’ll fail in the NHL, I don’t do those predictions, but I’m not dumping a ton of assets to get a guy who’s not a CLEAR #1/1000pt plus guy.