GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[Holtbyisms]

I mean I don’t care, but it’s easy to see how that behavior from a guy who has proven nothing at the NA Pro level, can put people off.

I’m more interested to know if the KHL brass really instructed him to ignore all interview requests, and if they threatened any family members along the way.

Seriously though when has the KHL ever done that (and it’s come to light)? Is that now the standing order for all Russians?

Whatever is happening behind the scenes I don't care if it means he's a capital.

 

[Brian23]

I can't imagine us being able to draft Michkov, but I'm a pessimist.

I'm more interested in what does that indicate GMBM and Company think about our team? Like, what's the plan? Cause he's not coming over for 3 years, unless they can work a Miro magic again, so are they just punting till then? Just wonder where their head would be at if they're really on all in on kid.

 

[EroCaps]

Don’t tease me with these Michkov reports…

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I can't imagine us being able to draft Michkov, but I'm a pessimist.

I'm more interested in what does that indicate GMBM and Company think about our team? Like, what's the plan? Cause he's not coming over for 3 years, unless they can work a Miro magic again, so are they just punting till then? Just wonder where their head would be at if they're really on all in on kid.

We waited 3 years for Kuz and that was fine. But I have a feeling Michkov would want to be in Washington for Ovie to get the goal record. You would be on every Russian TV and in the hockey history books. I think thats pretty cool for a young Russian kid.

 

[HTFN]

Don’t tease me with these Michkov reports…

Michkov intentionally oils ducklings and breeds mosquitoes as a hobby

 

[Brian23]

We waited 3 years for Kuz and that was fine. But I have a feeling Michkov would want to be in Washington for Ovie to get the goal record. You would be on every Russian TV and in the hockey history books. I think thats pretty cool for a young Russian kid.

The difference was the team was good, and looked to be good for a long time with Kuz. We had the luxury of gambling on Kuzy coming over. The entire setup is different now, we need 8 to be useful within a year or two if there's any hoe of him helping Ovechkin. We need that asset to be competitive today, we don't have the luxury to gamble on the future. Or really, I don't think we do.

 

[The Instigator]

I need Michkov to drop and McMichael to step up because I want a future MichMichael line.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The difference was the team was good, and looked to be good for a long time with Kuz. We had the luxury of gambling on Kuzy coming over. The entire setup is different now, we need 8 to be useful within a year or two if there's any hoe of him helping Ovechkin. We need that asset to be competitive today, we don't have the luxury to gamble on the future. Or really, I don't think we do.

That’s right…totally different situations.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Wrong thread

 

[trick9]

FWIW.

Interesting that they put the Sharks out there as the only team the Capitals should worry about.

Mike Grier has deep ties to some of the US players and even before him, the Sharks aren't really a team that's gone hard after Russians. Their past tendencies have been towards SHL and US players, and while the GM changed, big part of the same staff has stayed there. Chris Morehouse is their director of amateur scouting now and he was with the Rangers from 2019-2022. During that time period they drafted 0 Russians. The last time Sharks drafted a player playing in Russia high was Andrei Zuyzin in 1996 (2nd overall).

 

[Acallabeth]

Interesting that they put the Sharks out there as the only team the Capitals should worry about.
Mike Grier has deep ties to some of the US players and even before him, the Sharks aren't really a team that's gone hard after Russians. Their past tendencies have been towards SHL and US players, and while the GM changed, big part of the same staff has stayed there. Chris Morehouse is their director of amateur scouting now and he was with the Rangers from 2019-2022. During that time period they drafted 0 Russians. The last time Sharks drafted a player playing in Russia high was Andrei Zuyzin in 1996 (2nd overall).

The same 'source' speculated that SJ may be willing to pick Michkov because their owner is a fan of Russian hockey and respects Larionov a lot.
Not sure how trustworthy that is, but the Sharks uncharacteristically drafted Russians with 3 of their 5 picks in 2019, which was the last year Larionov worked as an agent before switching to coaching job, and SJS were also a team that offered Larionov a coaching job years ago.

 

[trick9]

The same 'source' specuilated that SJ may be willing to pick Michkov because their owner is a fan of Russian hockey and respects Larionov a lot.
Not sure how trustworthy that is, but the Sharks uncharacteristically drafted Russians with 3 of their 5 picks in 2019, which was the last year Larionov worked as an agent before switching to coaching job, and SJS were also a team that offered Larionov a coaching job years ago.

That seems like a pretty wild speculation to me. I find it hard to see a scenario where owner influenced a top-5 like that. That would be pretty disrespectful to the entire scouting staff. Maybe he does have some influence on late-round picks, but even that would be ehh... interesting. Especially given that their 2019 draft was a complete dud.

Sharks to me would be a much popular choice if they were picking 5th instead of 4th. Even then i could see them leaning towards Leonard/Reinbacher but at 4... i would find it very hard to think that they would pass up on one of the potential top-line centers. If it's Smith at 4 who Sharks would pass up on that would leave a lot of question marks, given that Grier basically knows Smith already inside out as his oldest son is his friend who also used to play hockey with him.

Personally i think Mike Grier will dance to the podium at 4, no matter whether it's Carlsson or Smith left then.

 

[Holtbyisms]

That seems like a pretty wild speculation to me. I find it hard to see a scenario where owner influenced a top-5 like that. That would be pretty disrespectful to the entire scouting staff. Maybe he does have some influence on late-round picks, but even that would be ehh... interesting. Especially given that their 2019 draft was a complete dud.

Sharks to me would be a much popular choice if they were picking 5th instead of 4th. Even then i could see them leaning towards Leonard/Reinbacher but at 4... i would find it very hard to think that they would pass up on one of the potential top-line centers. If it's Smith at 4 who Sharks would pass up on that would leave a lot of question marks, given that Grier basically knows Smith already inside out as his oldest son is his friend who also used to play hockey with him.

Personally i think Mike Grier will dance to the podium at 4, no matter whether it's Carlsson or Smith left then.

I agree. I'm actually more worried about the Flyers. Briere is new, he was a similar sized offensively gifted forward. He could want to make a splash and show the new direction of the flyers right away.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

That’s right…totally different situations.

Kuznetsov joined the team the season they finished 17th in the league, missed the playoffs, and their coach and GM were fired. It was also right after Ovi’s “worst” seasons as a goal scorer. Kuznetsov was a big reason for the turnaround and it’s not accurate to say they were a really good team who had the luxury of waiting for him. They couldn’t figure out the 2C role for almost all of Ovi’s tenure which was why they really wanted Kuznetsov to come over.

You take Michkov if he’s there. No brainer. Expecting the 8th pick to come in and be a difference maker in a year or two to help a 38 or 39 year old Ovechkin is a poor strategy. We’re not talking about getting a Bedard or McDavid or Ovechkin who can come in and be a stud right away, anyone they get at 8 will need time to develop.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I haven't mentioned Michkov much as I have been convinced he would be gone at 8, and am still adamant we should not trade up.

The recent reports have me somewhat excited that he could fall to 8, and we take him - if Mahoney et. al. truly deem him as high as his best projections (I defer they will know better than myself, and probably better than any of us on here). I would be also very happy if he could get here soon! Like real soon.

Hasn't the agreement between the NHL and the KHL been voided currently? Does anyone know what sway the team he is signed with actually has. Can they just be paid off? Or ignored? Can he just stay in the US after the draft if we take him, and he can just move in with Ovi? If Backstrom indeed goes LITR retirement, he can have breakfast on his couch, and Ovi will say to Nastya "We are new duo!".

 

[kicksavedave]

Kuznetsov joined the team the season they finished 17th in the league, missed the playoffs, and their coach and GM were fired. It was also right after Ovi’s “worst” seasons as a goal scorer. Kuznetsov was a big reason for the turnaround and it’s not accurate to say they were a really good team who had the luxury of waiting for him. They couldn’t figure out the 2C role for almost all of Ovi’s tenure which was why they really wanted Kuznetsov to come over.

You take Michkov if he’s there. No brainer. Expecting the 8th pick to come in and be a difference maker in a year or two to help a 38 or 39 year old Ovechkin is a poor strategy. We’re not talking about getting a Bedard or McDavid or Ovechkin who can come in and be a stud right away, anyone they get at 8 will need time to develop.

Kuzy was drafted in 2010 though. They were coming off a Presidents Trophy and the Young Guns were coming squarely into their prime. Drafting Kuz, with the potential delay in coming over, was a luxury only good teams could afford, but he was also 26th overall, not 8th. This team, in 2023, maybe not in the same place as they are walking this tightrope of trying to stay competitive while they age rapidly.

But I think we agree completely, you take Michkov if he's there and you dance a jig on the way to the podium.

Passing on the best players available is a sure fire guaranteed way to build a mediocre roster over the long haul. See: Redskins.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

To get us back to the non-Michkov speculation, if he is not available...

If my current wish list of Smith (I know, slim to no chance)/Leonard/Benson are gone, I'm wondering if we might be considering non Dvorsky options.

I'm liking Honzek firstly, and hopefully as a C. I know the skating needs to improve (we have a great skating coach, IIRC, and I believe she helped Wilson a great deal). Size (6'4", 186 lbs - might be ready sooner than others...), Hockey IQ, scoring..

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Similarly, I'm also looking at Barlow as someone we have not been discussing. 6", 193... RW, goal scoring and leadership with good Hockey IQ...

 

[Hivemind]

I think people need to reign in their expectations of a #8 pick a bit. Have there been superstar NHL players in the later half of the top 10? Yeah, absolutely. But most players picked around #8 aren't studs. There's a bunch of different NHL draft value charts out there, each with slightly different results, but the general consensus is that #8 is worth about half of #4, and the difference between a top 4 pick and the 8th pick is roughly the same as the difference between #8 and 20ish.

Looking back at some recent-ish NHL drafts:
2018 - Adam Boqvist
2017 - Casey Middlestadt
2016 - Alex Nylander
2015 - Zach Werenski
2014 - William Nylander
2013 - Rasmus Ristolainen
2012 - Derrick Pouliout
2011 - Sean Couturier
2010 - Alex Burmistrov
2009 - Scott Glennie

Over that 10 year period, there were more straight up NHL busts (4) who are already out of the league than there were star players (3) - and that's counting both Werenski and Couturier as star players. Only a couple of these guys were making real NHL impacts within a couple years of their draft, and even the fastest of them (Couturier) still took a while to become a top 6 forward. Casey Middlestadt just finally broke out this year, in his draft +6 season. Even the best case scenario here, William Nylander, took until his D+3 season to become a full time NHLer.

 

[twabby]

I know there are a lot of unknowns and smokescreens entering the draft, but I’m pretty firmly in one of two camps:

1. Draft Michkov by any means necessary. Move up if possible. He’ll be worth it. If there wasn’t the Russia-factor there’d be legitimate debate over whether he should go #2 over Fantilli, who himself would be a good #1 overall in many years. Michkov’s equivalency numbers put him in the same neighborhood as Bedard.

2. Trade the pick. I’m not interested in lower upside guys you won’t help for years when Ovechkin is still here. Dvorsky does nothing for Ovechkin. Trading the pick would.

Michkov is the one name I’d be willing to take and wait on because he has legitimate franchise player potential. No one else who might be available to the Capitals has the level of upside available where I’d want them to hold the pick.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I think people need to reign in their expectations of a #8 pick a bit.

The expectation based on a smoothed average of all drafts may be moot, if this is actually an above to well-above average draft. In that case, we might want to look at the average/smoothed expectation in the 3rd- 6th overall range. Which would be much better.

8 OA's also include Bob Gainey, Darryl Sittler, Derian Hatcher, Grant Fuhr, Jeremy Roenick, Ray Bourque, & Shayne Corson.

Comes down to luck (in who is still available) and skill (scout and choose wisely). That can also mean statistically, each draft is much more of a random event with smaller samples (less years compared).

I'm still optimistic for a better than the average 8 OA player.

 

[kicksavedave]

I know there are a lot of unknowns and smokescreens entering the draft, but I’m pretty firmly in one of two camps:

1. Draft Michkov by any means necessary. Move up if possible. He’ll be worth it. If there wasn’t the Russia-factor there’d be legitimate debate over whether he should go #2 over Fantilli, who himself would be a good #1 overall in many years. Michkov’s equivalency numbers put him in the same neighborhood as Bedard.

2. Trade the pick. I’m not interested in lower upside guys you won’t help for years when Ovechkin is still here. Dvorsky does nothing for Ovechkin. Trading the pick would.

Michkov is the one name I’d be willing to take and wait on because he has legitimate franchise player potential. No one else who might be available to the Capitals has the level of upside available where I’d want them to hold the pick.

This entirely. Its extremely rare to have a guy who would be #1 in most other drafts being potentially available to you when are drafting 8 OA. I think sitting back and praying he falls to you is dreaming, and the player they select at 8 OA instead of him would likely be much lower impact/higher risk while still needing ~3 years to join them anyway. Trading the pick for immediate help, or trading up to get the possible best player behind Bedard, seems like the best way to support Ovi...

And supporting Ovi seems to be all we are really doing right now anyway.

 

[OV Rocks]

The expectation based on a smoothed average of all drafts may be moot, if this is actually an above to well-above average draft. In that case, we might want to look at the average/smoothed expectation in the 3rd- 6th overall range. Which would be much better.

8 OA's also include Bob Gainey, Darryl Sittler, Derian Hatcher, Grant Fuhr, Jeremy Roenick, Ray Bourque, & Shayne Corson.

Comes down to luck (in who is still available) and skill (scout and choose wisely). That can also mean statistically, each draft is much more of a random event with smaller samples (less years compared).

I'm still optimistic for a better than the average 8 OA player.

1980 references....whatever helps you sleep at night!

8OA doesn't move the needle recently (my lifetime). Michkov or trade, that is all.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Kuznetsov joined the team the season they finished 17th in the league, missed the playoffs, and their coach and GM were fired. It was also right after Ovi’s “worst” seasons as a goal scorer. Kuznetsov was a big reason for the turnaround and it’s not accurate to say they were a really good team who had the luxury of waiting for him. They couldn’t figure out the 2C role for almost all of Ovi’s tenure which was why they really wanted Kuznetsov to come over.

You take Michkov if he’s there. No brainer. Expecting the 8th pick to come in and be a difference maker in a year or two to help a 38 or 39 year old Ovechkin is a poor strategy. We’re not talking about getting a Bedard or McDavid or Ovechkin who can come in and be a stud right away, anyone they get at 8 will need time to develop.

Not my words….and yeah…still different situations…that said…..I’m not recalling Kuzy coming in and immediately contributing massively. 9 pts in 17 games when he joined in April, then 37 pts in his first full season the next year.

 

[Hivemind]

The expectation based on a smoothed average of all drafts may be moot, if this is actually an above to well-above average draft. In that case, we might want to look at the average/smoothed expectation in the 3rd- 6th overall range. Which would be much better.

8 OA's also include Bob Gainey, Darryl Sittler, Derian Hatcher, Grant Fuhr, Jeremy Roenick, Ray Bourque, & Shayne Corson.

Comes down to luck (in who is still available) and skill (scout and choose wisely). That can also mean statistically, each draft is much more of a random event with smaller samples (less years compared).

I'm still optimistic for a better than the average 8 OA player.

All the talk about "good drafts" and "weak drafts" almost always just correlate to how strong the top 1-3 picks are. Years with potential franchise players at the very top of the draft get called strong, and years with weaker #1s get called weak. HFBoards and hockey media were creaming themselves over the 2012 NHL draft for more than a year before it started, calling it one of the strongest drafts. But in hindsight, it was a pretty mediocre draft overall, headlined by guys who typically get around 60-65 points in a season (Hertl, Forsberg, Teravainen).

The fact you're referencing guys who were drafted 50 years ago.... yeah, that says everything right there.