GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[Roshi]

Exactly. Maybe Michkov scores 45- 50 every year, but maybe Benson scores 30 - 35 each prime year, AND whoever you choose next year with the 1st can do 25 year, and same with the one after, while CMM gets to 30 a year and Lappy gets 20 and we then trade him as part of a package for a top D because at that point we are overstocked.

Add to that if we could get an additional 1st this year for Kuzy and use one of the THREE 2025 2nd round picks to move from 40 to 34 to grab another asset we have our eye on.

For a team in the Caps situation giving up many really good potential assets for one superstar is putting your eggs in one basket, keeps you prospect poor, and limits flexibility on the trade market. We need to fill the prospect pool with THIS draft as much as possible.

You dont account that those 20 goal guys can be had from FA or by trading (or even drafting) way way easier than a 50 goal scorer. Its not like its these four guys production for only Michkovs production. You are still going to fill those remaining roster spots somehow anyways, and those guys doesnt have to be a 0+0 even if we trade couple McMichaels out to get the 50 goal guy
It all comes down to if you think Michkov is that good. I havent made my mind on that, but Twabby seems to think he is, so im fine with his assesment of going all-in for MM. Its different thing if im fine with BM going all-in for MM though

 

[OV Rocks]

If there is a chance to move up to get Michkov you move up to get him. You don't get the chance to add potential generational talent often so when there is a chance to do it, you do it.

If the cost is the 24 and 25 firsts, do it. The players you draft at 10-20 there in those years are 2nd and 3rd liners most likely. Like Trotz said swing for the fences you can fill in a roster with 20 goal scorers and 2nd/3rd pairing D. It is near impossible to add the most elite players, and even more rare to have the potential to have an elite 23 year old on an ELC.

Also saying you are trading 3 first round picks for one isn't totally accurate, it is 2. You are upgrading this year's pick and the cost is 2 additional 1sts. And 3 years down the road your 1LW -Miro and 1RW-Michkov are locked in for a decade.

 

[Acallabeth]

What message do you send your new coach and Ovechkin ponying up three firsts for a player three years away regardless of how good they may be?

It gives 2 bold positive messages:
1) Guys, we believe you will not be suck.
2) And we've just added one hell of a player!

As promising as Michkov has been you'd want more of a sure thing, ideally a bigger frame and certainly more immediacy at this stage of the game for this team. In an absolute vacuum maybe it makes sense. This isn't that. I get lusting after high-end ability but this team can't afford that wait unless it falls in their laps or the cost is relatively minimal.

But why? This team doesn't have the championship window closing in a year or two. It's hard to see the players who are realistic at #8 becoming impact players next year (even great drafts like 2003 and 2015 had few players becoming difference makers overnight), the season after that is also questionable. Is one (2 at most) more season of serious production from a relatively average playersuch a game breaker?

By the way, if Michkov was 6'3 and going to the NHL the next year, there would be no chance in hell a team with 8th overall pick could even dream of getting him

Exactly. Maybe Michkov scores 45- 50 every year, but maybe Benson scores 30 - 35 each prime year, AND whoever you choose next year with the 1st can do 25 year, and same with the one after, while CMM gets to 30 a year and Lappy gets 20 and we then trade him as part of a package for a top D because at that point we are overstocked.

If Michkov scores 45-50 every year, the team will still have a couple of 2nd liners who are good for ~20 goals, he's not going to play alone lol. The bigger question is what player are they going to pay premium money - will it be an average 1st liner or elite 1st liner?

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

If the cost is the 24 and 25 firsts, do it.

What if we take the 24 & 25 1st picks and add Kuzy and trade for something very significant and high end this Friday.

And then next week we draft one of Leonard/Benson at 8 OA. Or maybe Michkov is there at 8 OA after all (because teams that were not going to draft him anyways don't, ans don't fleece us for two 1st round picks). We would be way further ahead.

I would be open to discussing this with teams to see what we could get.

 

[twabby]

Washington just got Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano for free. They got Sheary and Sprong for free 2 seasons prior.

These middle six type players are always available for teams who do their homework. There’s zero need to use first round picks for these types of players when the alternative is supporting your current franchise player with an impact trade or going all in on a new franchise player.

 

[Acallabeth]

Washington just got Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano for free. They got Sheary and Sprong for free 2 seasons prior.
These middle six type players are always available for teams who do their homework. There’s zero need to use first round picks for these types of players when the alternative is supporting your current franchise player with an impact trade or going all in on a new franchise player.

By the way, Milano and Strome were 1st rounders in consecutive drafts, #3 and #16. Our 2 1st rounders may very well turn out somewhat like them. And, honestly, you don't win Cups by hoarding average talent.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

And we got Forsberg at 11, Wilson at 16, Carlson at 26. Yep, first round picks are dog shit

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

While value on twabbys process seems excessive at first look, i cant say he doesnt have a point.

If you believe Mitchkov is next gen talent and on bar with Bedard its easily worth 3x 1sts and the wait.

Lets put it this way, would we give CMM, Lapierre and 8th for Bedard? Bit of an hyperbole, but thats basically 3x 1sts.

BIG IF, but if he’s the real deal, yes I would trade both, because I don’t think those two will be stars, but not the future 1sts….

It’s incredibly irresponsible to trade the 24 + 25 1st until this roster is reshaped, and if we’re stuck with Kuzy, Mantha, Oshie, etc, and nobody is willing to trade for them, you have to expect another top-10 pick next year IMO.

If he falls to us, fine. Just not worth the overpay.

IMO, No way Ovechkin is seeing this kid as the franchise savior in his last few years, so I suspect he would rather see smart moves by management not desperate ones.

 

[OV Rocks]

What if we take the 24 & 25 1st picks and add Kuzy and trade for something very significant and high end this Friday.

And then next week we draft one of Leonard/Benson at 8 OA. Or maybe Michkov is there at 8 OA after all (because teams that were not going to draft him anyways don't, ans don't fleece us for two 1st round picks). We would be way further ahead.

I would be open to discussing this with teams to see what we could get.

My hypothetical takes place at the draft when Montreal is on the clock.

First round picks aren't dog shit, but there are different levels of talent within the first round.
Go back to 2013 there's Nathan MacKinnon level talent and there is Anthony Mantha level which we know all too well.

I would much rather bet on the player who is dubbed to be a generational talent like MacKinnon vs a potential safe bet 2C/W potential like Mantha.

You don't trade for players like that and very rarely do you get the chance to sign them, they are drafted.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Michkov had 12 goals in 7 games at U18 as a frickin 16 y old.

Svechnikov had 3 goals in 5 games as a 17 y old.

Michkov is the best Russian prospect since Ovechkin/Malkin, it is not really debatable. If he falls it has nothing to do with his talent.

It's interesting that Svechnikov was 'the next big junior prospect' and 'next Ovechkin' in his early teen years, went 2nd overall (from the CHL). They both played in the U18 in D-2 seasons, and Svechnikov scored 2 points, while Michkov scored, well, 16.

Exactly what I'm implying. Svechnikov was considered an elite prospect, went 2 overall, and his numbers in comparable competitions are dwarfed by Michkov's.

There's not a single prospect in the system I wouldn't give up to move up for Michkov, but giving up 3 1sts is certifiably nuts, considering the historical market for non-1/1 draft position, and the fate of Russians playing in Russia on draft day.

Just to drive the latter point home, the last three Russians playing in a Russian league drafted in the top 8:

Nikita Filatov
Evgeni Malkin
Alexander Ovechkin

 

[HTFN]

BIG IF, but if he’s the real deal, yes I would trade both, because I don’t think those two will be stars, but not the future 1sts….

It’s incredibly irresponsible to trade the 24 + 25 1st until this roster is reshaped, and if we’re stuck with Kuzy, Mantha, Oshie, etc, and nobody is willing to trade for them, you have to expect another top-10 pick next year IMO.

If he falls to us, fine. Just not worth the overpay.

IMO, No way Ovechkin is seeing this kid as the franchise savior in his last few years, so I suspect he would rather see smart moves by management not desperate ones.

Oooooooorrrrrrr it's all set up for Ovechkin to mentor Michkov so that Michkov can be there to mentor Ovi Jr. and on and on we go.

 

[aonb]

I would eat s*** for Michkov but still i don't believe its happening. I watched him during his stint in Sochi, he is one of a kind, a f***** dynamite. Crazy wrister, elite IQ, defensive awareness, just a full package. Don't even try to compare him to any of our recent draft picks lol

 

[OV Rocks]

Exactly what I'm implying. Svechnikov was considered an elite prospect, went 2 overall, and his numbers in comparable competitions are dwarfed by Michkov's.

There's not a single prospect in the system I wouldn't give up to move up for Michkov, but giving up 3 1sts is certifiably nuts, considering the historical market for non-1/1 draft position, and the fate of Russians playing in Russia on draft day.

Just to drive the latter point home, the last three Russians playing in a Russian league drafted in the top 8:

Nikita Filatov
Evgeni Malkin
Alexander Ovechkin

Again, you aren't giving up 3 1sts, you are upgrading this year's pick and trading 2 1sts. You are still making this years pick

I am on the side of thinking the Caps won't make a habit of drafting in the top10 for the next few years, they will be 15-25. The impact of those two players at 15-25 is not even close to what Michkov could be. Like I said it is the difference between a potential player like Mackinnon vs. Mantha.

 

[Acallabeth]

Just to drive the latter point home, the last three Russians playing in a Russian league drafted in the top 8:

Nikita Filatov
Evgeni Malkin
Alexander Ovechkin

I know we're picking 8th, but it still seems a bit of an unfair cutoff point when players have been drafted from Russian teams 9th, 10th and 11th since then.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Again, you aren't giving up 3 1sts, you are upgrading this year's pick and trading 2 1sts. You are still making this years pick

I am on the side of thinking the Caps won't make a habit of drafting in the top10 for the next few years, they will be 15-25. The impact of those two players at 15-25 is not even close to what Michkov could be. Like I said it is the difference between a potential player like Mackinnon vs. Mantha.

When was the last time 2 firsts were added to move up (at most) 5 spots?

I know we're picking 8th, but it still seems a bit of an unfair cutoff point when players have been drafted from Russian teams 9th, 10th and 11th since then.

Any cutoff is some degree of arbitrary. I think it seems fair, since that's where we're picking and the discussion is about moving up from there.

 

[OV Rocks]

When was the last time 2 firsts were added to move up (at most) 5 spots?


Any cutoff is some degree of arbitrary. I think it seems fair, since that's where we're picking and the discussion is about moving up from there.

No idea - prolly never. I don't think it would take that much, 8OA and 40 or 24 1st, but I wouldn't be opposed to it if it comes down to it.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

No idea - prolly never. I don't think it would take that much, 8OA and 40 or 24 1st, but I wouldn't be opposed to it if it comes down to it.

2022 Draft - 11 OA was traded for 27 OA, 34 OA, and 45 OA

The last thing this organization needs for the transition post-Ovechkin is a gutted prospect pool. The price absolutely matters.

 

[Roshi]

Anyone holding on 24&25 first rounders for their life, what are you expectations for those drafts?

If you have Michkov on the same tier as Bedard (not saying i have, just for discussion), i wouldnt blink packing both last two 1st overalls with the 8th this year (Power, Slaf, 8th).

You dont know about the future drafts. You might end up with nothing with those picks, vs getting a superstar talent now.

All we know BM might trade those picks at the TDL for rentals.

 

[OV Rocks]

2022 Draft - 11 OA was traded for 27 OA, 34 OA, and 45 OA

The last thing this organization needs for the transition post-Ovechkin is a gutted prospect pool. The price absolutely matters.

Your example is pretty bad - the question was - "When was the last time 2 firsts were added to move up (at most) 5 spots?"

Didn't know 34 and 45 were first round picks....
I think, and I am no math wiz, but 11 to 27 is a few more than (at most) 5 spots too.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Your example is pretty bad - the question was - "When was the last time 2 firsts were added to move up (at most) 5 spots?"

Didn't know 34 and 45 were first round picks....
I think, and I am no math wiz, but 11 to 27 is a few more than (at most) 5 spots too.

Point completely missed. It took two 2nd rounders to move up 16 spots last year.

Ostensibly, you'd be moving up within a draft tier this year to go after Michkov. You shouldn't be paying a boatload more than it took to move further up into an entirely different tier last year.

 

[Langway]

It gives 2 bold positive messages:
1) Guys, we believe you will not be suck.
2) And we've just added one hell of a player!

Uh, yeah, just wait another three grueling seasons and you'll see guys! You'll see! Just wait! Most of you won't be around but you'll see guys. Again, great to have in their back pocket if he slides. Otherwise giving up prime futures that could secure something more immediate would be a hell of a statement. I mean, if you're willing to give up three firsts why not try to move up to 2 to add Fantilli next season at a more crucial position? That would be more understandable. I get post-Ovechkin planning--for those that will still follow them--but it's a bit much banking on Michkov being generational, selling out for him and...waiting.

I don't think their competitive window is likely to open in a year or two either unless they maintain maximum cap flexibility and absolutely kill it in UFA/trades to significantly reload. Or suddenly turn into being more accomplished developmentally. I know it's draft season and hype trains are at full steam but we can't assume Michkov is generational and no one else comes close. If that were the case he should be a slam dunk at 5 at worst and under more serious consideration at 2/3/4. He may top out as a Kaprizov/Kucherov/Gaudreau or less depending on his maturity, capacity to adjust and handle the rigor of NHL play. It's safer to say both Bedard and Michkov will probably not be generational. Physically it's a lot more of a stretch for either to dominate on that level. We don't know. We don't fully know a Benson or Dvorsky simply top out as middling. We don't know if a Moore won't figure some things out and turn into a hell of a player. That's the fun of it. Certainly you'd rather bet on Michkov but it's about assessing the value difference. Strategically at least if I'm Philadelphia at 7 I signal I'm taking Michkov if he's available. That we've yet to get such commitments from teams offers hope at least.

As much as they need top-end talent team building requires amassing a lot of wins across the board that stand out beyond average. Upping that standard is a lot harder than conveniently scrounging up more Milanos to balance out higher-end targets. The Caps need a lot in addition to high-end talent. Some may be relatively easier to acquire but they're not in need of just one thing or position. High-end upside should absolutely be the main priority that high in the draft but they're going to need a lot in addition to one higher-end player (esp. come playoff time).

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Anyone holding on 24&25 first rounders for their life, what are you expectations for those drafts?

If you have Michkov on the same tier as Bedard (not saying i have, just for discussion), i wouldnt blink packing both last two 1st overalls with the 8th this year (Power, Slaf, 8th).

You dont know about the future drafts. You might end up with nothing with those picks, vs getting a superstar talent now.

All we know BM might trade those picks at the TDL for rentals.

I don't think it's reasonable to assume the 24 & 25 firsts are going to be later than the teens. This is a fringe playoff team when healthy.

Power + Slaf + 8th OA is even crazier than the the 8th plus two firsts proposal.

 

[Silky mitts]

Pronman put this in his mock draft today under Caps taking Michkov

The often-asked question in the league is whether this is Michkov’s floor. Some are convinced there is no way he gets by Washington. Some in the league are less sold he’s their guy. I can easily see one of the U.S. program kids or Nate Danielson otherwise. If Dvorsky doesn’t go to Arizona I don’t see him getting by Washington at No. 8.

I don’t think the Caps having Dvorsky over Michkov would be that shocking.

Edit: Posted on the page before, nm

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Oooooooorrrrrrr it's all set up for Ovechkin to mentor Michkov so that Michkov can be there to mentor Ovi Jr. and on and on we go.

Nice fairytale story sure…agreed.

 

[Roshi]

I don't think it's reasonable to assume the 24 & 25 firsts are going to be later than the teens. This is a fringe playoff team when healthy.

Power + Slaf + 8th OA is even crazier than the the 8th plus two firsts proposal.

I think you are arguing a bit different thing than im going at. Its not about whats fair price to move up 3 spots. Its what you would give for a Bedard-tier guy. If Michkov is that guy, i dont know and thats not my point.

But its essentially different thing to talk about moving up in draft in general or moving up in draft for a certain superstar talent.

So, you wouldnt do Power+Slaf+8th for Bedard?