GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[twabby]

And as such, shouldn't pay a king's ransom to move up?

I'm not saying pay more than is needed to secure Michkov. That's lunacy!

 

[EroCaps]

Pronman put this in his mock draft today under Caps taking Michkov

The often-asked question in the league is whether this is Michkov’s floor. Some are convinced there is no way he gets by Washington. Some in the league are less sold he’s their guy. I can easily see one of the U.S. program kids or Nate Danielson otherwise. If Dvorsky doesn’t go to Arizona I don’t see him getting by Washington at No. 8.

I don’t think the Caps having Dvorsky over Michkov would be that shocking.

Edit: Posted on the page before, nm

It would be utterly f***ing stupid to put Dvorsky over Michkov.

Unless Michkov is a psychotic locker room cancer, they should be bending over backwards to get him.

He reminds me of a Russian Patty Kane.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I have no idea how this works but Michkov have been hyped to be the next Ovechkin. I dont think he will be, but by your hype-o-meter why cant i use Ovechkin draft (for Fleury/Nash/8th=Alexandre Picard) and have to settle for Tavares?

And thats not even considering that Tavares might easily end up being the best player of them all, Bedard/Slaf/Power/8th. Prime Bajamas was pretty good. Though id bet Bedard is a real thing, but you never know as the Daigles hindsightly prove.

Anyways why do i need to back down, hyperbole or not? Id rather just move on. Lets do that

And that’s why we’re dabbling in silly fantasies….nobody close to draft-ready is the next Ovechkin.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Would #8 #40 2024 2nd be enough? That seems like a good haul to move back 3 picks.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Nice fairytale story sure…agreed.

Yes! Like Eric Bieniemy leaving the Chiefs for the Skins

 

[Roshi]

And that’s why we’re dabbling in silly fantasies….nobody close to draft-ready is the next Ovechkin.

Yeah i agree and thats not why we are discussing silly things instead of upcoming draft

What i said was just that if there is a that one guy and you have that chance, you go for it and its not ridiculous to pay up 2x 1st round pick. Not if its for Matthews or Kane or MacKinnon. Even more so for the next tier up. Its a different thing if you thing MM or Bedard is that guy. I never said so.

Or maybe i did for Bedard, and yeah, i would trade our next two first round picks for him. Though id hope for top5 protection for atleast one of the picks.

On the other hand i also think we’ll win the cup next year so you are propably better off siding with that other guy!

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The only way we can trade future 1st rounders is with protection but even that is risky knowing a full rebuild is on the way and those picks are going to be high and lottery tickets.

 

[Jags]

Miro was widely considered a top 10 talent last year, and he'd probably be picked in that range in a redraft now that he appears healthy and was able to get out of his KHL contract early. He's got a ton of value, and I wouldn't do it (assuming #8 as well).

Agreed. Say we end up with Dvorsky. I'd rather have Miro AND Dvorsky AND #40 AND the two other 1sts twabby is willing to part with, all in the mix to join the team over the next few years. Betting a lot of that just to move up a couple spots and select one guy would be a mistake. There's real value at #8 this year regardless of who gets selected 1-7.

I’d be less likely to include him because he might have a shot at being an NHLer before Ovie retires. I’d consider trading him though depending on the overall trade cost.

So might the other assets you're willing to trade, to get a guy that might not be available for 3 years no matter what.

Agreed he's being slept on hard. If he's from NA he's a lock for 2nd overall has been said numerous times by in the know people.

Right, but that's exactly why he's not being slept on. If he was from NA he'd be available immediately, among other things. The whole conversation would be moot. People are talking a lot about him falling because he's not available immediately and, even worse, might be 3 years away. The NHL knows who he is and what he's capable of far better than we do. Some GMs just might not have that patience or the luxury of time, and that's what's making his draft position hard to pin down.

 

[Calicaps]

Agreed. Say we end up with Dvorsky. I'd rather have Miro AND Dvorsky AND #40 AND the two other 1sts twabby is willing to part with, all in the mix to join the team over the next few years. Betting a lot of that just to move up a couple spots and select one guy would be a mistake. There's real value at #8 this year regardless of who gets selected 1-7.



So might the other assets you're willing to trade, to get a guy that might not be available for 3 years no matter what.



Right, but that's exactly why he's not being slept on. If he was from NA he'd be available immediately, among other things. The whole conversation would be moot. People are talking a lot about him falling because he's not available immediately and, even worse, might be 3 years away. The NHL knows who he is and what he's capable of far better than we do. Some GMs just might not have that patience or the luxury of time, and that's what's making his draft position hard to pin down.

stop making sense.

 

[Jags]

Michkov is the best Russian prospect since Ovechkin/Malkin, it is not really debatable. If he falls it has nothing to do with his talent.

Agreed. But Semin was also that kind of guy and so were lots of other can't-miss prospects, is all we're saying. I'm not willing to bet the farm on one guy, RGIII style, just because twabby still thinks we can win another Cup for Ovi.

What message do you send Ovechkin if you draft anyone with #8 overall? It doesn’t help him. He’ll be 40 years old by the time that pick helps him, and that help will be minimal at first.

Right, same thing if you trade a ton to move up and guarantee Michkov. Still 3 years, he's still 40 years old, the help might still be minimal at first, and the thing you're aiming for (another Cup for Ovi as a Cap) isn't happening regardless.

We have to care about the post-Ovi Capitals. Yes, Michkov might be a beast, but giving up a king's ransom for him is still a dodgy trade-off because one guy can't win you a championship. Gretzky never won another after leaving the best team ever assembled. The team matters mightily. 31 teams will miss out on every generational talent. We'll live.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Say we end up with Dvorsky. I'd rather have Miro AND Dvorsky AND #40 AND the two other 1sts twabby is willing to part with, all in the mix to join the team over the next few years. Betting a lot of that just to move up a couple spots and select one guy would be a mistake. There's real value at #8 this year regardless of who gets selected 1-7.

Bingo. Let's say it's Leonard we get (cause I really like his skill, character, and Hockey IQ), plus everything else you mention PLUS we trade Kuzy for another 1st rounder (and say for instance, we get But - pronounced Boot). And then we get someone else our scouts like at 40.

So at that point the team suddenly has a much richer prospect pool and the flexibility that brings over the next few years (the time to let prospects develop, hidden gems emerge, and then make better informed Hockey trade moves with valuable pieces wherever we end up over stocked to fill weaknesses).

Not as sexy, but probably more likely to succeed.

 

[Langway]

There's just so many questions with Michkov largely due to lack of access. It's easy to sit back and say the on-ice production speaks for itself but it helps when you have skin in the game to know the person as well. Also to have seen him on-ice in person somewhat recently (and that's probably not the case with most). His situation is so much more complicated than anyone else's at the top. It's not even close and the lack of access compounds it further. Even before getting into any on-ice ?'s are routine ones that can be a challenge via Zoom, via a translator or during last minute access to establish a relationship and comfort level. It's a lot of obstacles and homework no one else at the top of the draft is hindered by. A slide shouldn't be surprising at all. He's a player teams have to do their homework on and for some even doing that may be a challenge depending on their presence/network in Russia. He'll be meeting with some teams next week but, again, hard to at the last minute be sold off one meeting. (And we don't know if he isn't restricting who he'll be meeting with.) The Flyers at 7 after the Fedotov situation have to be guarded about how complicated things could get. You never know, even if the player's desire is clear. Teams can't afford to sit back and presume ideal scenarios. This is the real world.

The Caps should be in a relatively unique position and certainly should take full advantage at 8 if he's available and their homework checks out. If teams are looking to trade back then they're not serious about taking him. Someone else could move up but I don't think this is necessarily a pull-out-all-stops target. They have to have a responsible limit. They need some massive Ws piled up. Managing to sit tight and add Michkov at 8, retaining other assets would be a decent start. I don't think one can clearly say that about selling the farm for MM. Could be a winner but we won't know for a while and in the meantime their asset base becomes even more restricted. Trading future firsts is also dodgy in a period where they may not be super competitive depending on if there's any conditions attached. Again, you don't know.

What's the full story on Michkov's past season and being loaned out? How does he assess himself, what's he working on and what's the plan at SKA next season? Clear as mud. Also with no geopolitical change in sight there will be no opportunity to gauge him in any meaningful international tournaments. Beyond a theoretical bigger frame just a different geopolitical situation with Russia playing internationally could have had a massive impact on his stock. But we can't just assume he would have slayed the WJCs. Maybe. Probably. But it didn't happen. There's so much uncertainty that it does need to a glaringly obvious choice. For SJS at 4 I don't think that's it with the season Smith had. It doesn't seem like it's even there for MTL nor ARI due in part to valuing other qualities aside from pure long-term skilled upside. And, again, for PHI you wonder if it's there for them either. A trade up could happen...but then trading too far back introduces a different field to chose from. Just being able to offer up 8 alone relative to later picks should be a significant advantage if we assume teams have a very short list of targets at this point.

 

[kicksavedave]

I'm going to laugh my ass of if Michkov is there at 8 and the Caps pass on him, because Andre Nikolishin said he's a dick.

 

[twabby]

Agreed. But Semin was also that kind of guy and so were lots of other can't-miss prospects, is all we're saying. I'm not willing to bet the farm on one guy, RGIII style, just because twabby still thinks we can win another Cup for Ovi.



Right, same thing if you trade a ton to move up and guarantee Michkov. Still 3 years, he's still 40 years old, the help might still be minimal at first, and the thing you're aiming for (another Cup for Ovi as a Cap) isn't happening regardless.

We have to care about the post-Ovi Capitals. Yes, Michkov might be a beast, but giving up a king's ransom for him is still a dodgy trade-off because one guy can't win you a championship. Gretzky never won another after leaving the best team ever assembled. The team matters mightily. 31 teams will miss out on every generational talent. We'll live.

I never said drafting Michkov was for the Ovechkin-led Capitals. Quite the opposite actually!

Besides, for those who are worried about the draft capital the Capitals would have to give up to move up for Michkov, those picks can be easily recovered by trading Tom Wilson. Problem solved!

If I'm going in on the Ovechkin-led Capitals for one final push I'm trading this pick for an immediate impact player.

 

[Jags]

Washington just got Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano for free. They got Sheary and Sprong for free 2 seasons prior. These middle six type players are always available for teams who do their homework.

I would much rather bet on the player who is dubbed to be a generational talent like MacKinnon vs a potential safe bet 2C/W potential like Mantha.

Misleading comps, both of you. Sometimes those picks are Carlsons, Forsbergs, Vranas, and Wilsons. And when you draft them, you have a chance to keep them, maybe forever. You also get to benefit from the years of cheap contracts they'll have to sign early.

So maybe Michkov is going to be like Bedard. MAYBE. But you have a few chances ahead of you to draft a Wilson AND a Pavelski AND a Carlson AND a Stone, etc. You have a chance to build a robust, cost-controlled core. THAT is what wins championships. One superstar doesn't.

To your point, twabs, if we do our homework in drafts and free agency, we can have a steady stream of great draft talent AND the overachieving, diamond in the rough castoffs you're referencing.

I'm all for drafting Michkov if he falls to us and wouldn't fuss too much about a not-too-pricey package to move up. But this talk of two additional 1sts is nonsense.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I’m going to laugh when Michkov is there at 8 and Ross Mahoney goes back to the WHL for a good ole boy like Danielson. The boards may never be the same.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

.

I’m going to laugh when Michkov is there at 8 and Ross Mahoney goes back to the WHL for a good ole boy like Danielson. The boards may never be the same.

Or Honzek...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yes! Like Eric Bieniemy leaving the Chiefs for the Skins

I didn’t know Mich was a held back minority candidate who is desperate to find his next promotion. But hey..whatever makes you feel tough man.

 

[Jags]

To bounce it back the same way, would you do Taylor Hall+Doughty+8th for Auston Matthews? Its close. I propably would.

I wouldn't. Hall panned out, Doughty's awesome, and 8th could be whoever. Matthews isn't worth all of that. Ovechkin was at the same point in his career because he was healthy. I'd make THAT trade. But Matthews, while great, has proven a bit fragile.

But like you said, let's not get bogged down trying to equivocate. Let's say it's Ovechkin on draft day or at the height of his powers -- you pick. Generational talent of the first order, on pace to break an unbreakable record, turned out to be a great leader, absolute monster of a physical specimen that the sport has never seen and may never see again...

And he's going to retire with 1 Cup despite having a really good team around him for most of his career.

One guy doesn't get it done. No one's been as unstoppable as Ovi and yet he was stopped from winning Cups every year but one. Then there's the cautionary tales of similarly talented or even better players whose careers were cut short, from Lemieux to Lindros to Lafontaine and on and on.

One thing can derail one guy irrevocably. One thing can't derail 3 guys or 5 guys. That's why you don't bet the farm.

8OA could easily land us a great player unless we do something nutty. I wouldn't give up Miro or a future 1st to move up.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m going to laugh when Michkov is there at 8 and Ross Mahoney goes back to the WHL for a good ole boy like Danielson. The boards may never be the same.

I’m fine with him if he slides to 8, but damn posters here would lose their shit if they pass on him there. Where’s my popcorn?

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I’m fine with him if he slides to 8, but damn posters here would lose their shit if they pass on him there. Where’s my popcorn?

Given one of the few Caps Russian scouts came out and said what he said…I think people should prepare for disappointment. I get people think they are playing 3D chess with those comments but I doubt it. Nikolishin was on a random YouTube hockey show.

 

[Langway]

Re: my last post here's Blues GM Doug Armstrong:

Blues GM Doug Armstrong talks potential draft-pick trades, the plan at No. 10, Matvei Michkov, more

The Blues have three picks in the first round (Nos. 10, 25 and 29). What will Armstrong do with them?

theathletic.com

What is a factor, according to Armstrong, is how few times the Blues have been able to watch Michkov play in person because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We haven’t had live scouting on him for a while,” Armstrong said.“It’s the ‘live views,’ and it’s also the meetings, getting to talk to people around him. It’s been shut down. We’re relying very heavily on our scout from that area.

“And as much as it is the live views, it’s not being able to have communication when you see them at tournaments. They haven’t been participating at Hlinka, the U18s, the Subway Series.”

 

[Calicaps]

No one’s saying give up 2 additional firsts to get Michkov if it’s unnecessary. Surely Mac will be able to gauge the intent of other teams and be able to stand pat if Michkov slides.

I don’t really care about frame. I care about scoring. This is DeBrincat all over again. Except from an equivalency standpoint Michkov is like a million times the player DeBrincat is. Well not a million, but several tiers above him.

What message do you send Ovechkin if you draft anyone with #8 overall? It doesn’t help him. He’ll be 40 years old by the time that pick helps him, and that help will be minimal at first. I’m fine with trading the pick, even if Michkov is available at #8. But drafting someone like Dvorsky would be poor asset management given Ovechkin’s time left in DC. Go all in on the next era of Capitals hockey and draft a franchise talent, or support the current era. That’s what I say.

What message do you send if you draft Michkov at 5 and have no chance to improve the franchise for the rest of Ovi's tenure because you can't draft high AND you have few picks to offer in trade? Mac has said he's going to do his best to retool and build a competitive roster now, but also he's got his eye on the future. Blowing the future up for a guy who won't play now anyway is ruining both today and tomorrow.

 

[twabby]

What message do you send if you draft Michkov at 5 and have no chance to improve the franchise for the rest of Ovi's tenure because you can't draft high AND you have few picks to offer in trade? Mac has said he's going to do his best to retool and build a competitive roster now, but also he's got his eye on the future. Blowing the future up for a guy who won't play now anyway is ruining both today and tomorrow.

Don’t make me tap the “trade Tom Wilson for a massive haul” sign again

 

[EroCaps]

If the Caps pass on Michkov bc Niko had his feel feels hurt, things are going to get spicy.