GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[CapitalsCupReality]

If he’s really Bedard-tier, that much ahead of the guys in the 2/3-10 range; he should be long gone at 8.

 

[Calicaps]

I think you are arguing a bit different thing than im going at. Its not about whats fair price to move up 3 spots. Its what you would give for a Bedard-tier guy. If Michkov is that guy, i dont know and thats not my point.

But its essentially different thing to talk about moving up in draft in general or moving up in draft for a certain superstar talent.

So, you wouldnt do Power+Slaf+8th for Bedard?

Michkov isn't Bedard. He may have the talent, but their situations are entirely different. Michkov isn't in North America. Has never played in North America. And won't be in North America for years. That alone makes the comparison moot.

 

[twabby]

If he’s really Bedard-tier, that much ahead of the guys in the 2/3-10 range; he should be long gone at 8.

Teams pass on good players all the time.

Michkov isn't Bedard. He may have the talent, but their situations are entirely different. Michkov isn't in North America. Has never played in North America. And won't be in North America for years. That alone makes the comparison moot.

That’s right. He’s playing against men right now and Bedard isn’t.

To be clear I think Bedard is the best player in this draft. The numbers suggest Michkov is in the same tier, however.

 

[Calicaps]

Teams pass on good players all the time.



That’s right. He’s playing against men right now and Bedard isn’t.

To be clear I think Bedard is the best player in this draft. The numbers suggest Michkov is in the same tier, however.

Are you being obtuse on purpose? Do you really not get how difficult it can be for young people to move 10s of thousands of miles from home, to a place where they don't speak the language and where everything is unfamiliar? Alexander Semin was arguably the most purely talented player the Caps ever drafted. But he just couldn't handle the NHL and life away from Russia. He believed he wanted to play in the NHL, but the reality didn't work for him.

Plenty of guys do just fine and thrive, but there's no way to know until it happens. And the smaller rink makes for a much more physically punishing game. So it's not the same type of hockey. Bedard may be playing against boys, but he's in his native habitat, so to speak. And Michkov may well not even be available to try this all out for years.

These aren't bots we're talking about. They aren't just numbers. They're humans. There's countless examples of top-end prospects crashing and burning. You can't just say, "the ideal of this kid is worth X or Y." You have to balance X or Y with the very real possibility that the kid never becomes the ideal.

 

[twabby]

Are you being obtuse on purpose? Do you really not get how difficult it can be for young people to move 10s of thousands of miles from home, to a place where they don't speak the language and where everything is unfamiliar? Alexander Semin was arguably the most purely talented player the Caps ever drafted. But he just couldn't handle the NHL and life away from Russia. He believed he wanted to play in the NHL, but the reality didn't work for him.

Plenty of guys do just fine and thrive, but there's no way to know until it happens. And the smaller rink makes for a much more physically punishing game. So it's not the same type of hockey. Bedard may be playing against boys, but he's in his native habitat, so to speak. And Michkov may well not even be available to try this all out for years.

These aren't bots we're talking about. They aren't just numbers. They're humans. There's countless examples of top-end prospects crashing and burning. You can't just say, "the ideal of this kid is worth X or Y." You have to balance X or Y with the very real possibility that the kid never becomes the ideal.

Alex Semin didn’t produce nearly to the extent that Michkov has. Michkov has produced like Malkin and Ovechkin. Neither of those guys had too much issue coming over. You’re making the case that they really shouldn't draft any Europeans because they might not adjust well. Kind of silly if you ask me.

No one is a sure thing but the idea is to make the best bet possible. Michkov’s numbers suggest his ceiling is incredibly high and that there’s a very good chance that ceiling will be met. I don’t like the idea of passing on that possibility unless they decide they want to go all-in on Ovechkin’s final years. I’d be ok with that as the other option. Besides, they should be trading Tom Wilson anyways so they’ll get their young talent or draft picks back with that transaction. It fits together like a nice puzzle!

Anyone can fail. It’s not a convincing argument to say Michkov might fail and that’s why they shouldn’t give up future draft capital for him if necessary. Being risk-averse is a good strategy if you’re in your 50s and managing your portfolio. If you’re lucky enough to have a portfolio. I’m not. I lost it all buying a picture of an ape. But being risk-averse managing a hockey team is just another way of saying you have a loser’s mentality.

 

[kicksavedave]

I think this is where BMac's spy camera's need to be fully operational. He needs the info on what other teams are thinking.

One sure fire way to find out what they are thinking, is just to ask. "Who do ya want?"

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I think you are arguing a bit different thing than im going at. Its not about whats fair price to move up 3 spots. Its what you would give for a Bedard-tier guy. If Michkov is that guy, i dont know and thats not my point.

But its essentially different thing to talk about moving up in draft in general or moving up in draft for a certain superstar talent.

So, you wouldnt do Power+Slaf+8th for Bedard?

I would not. In hindsight, would you have done Kane + Stamkos/Doughty + 8 OA in the 2009 draft for Tavares?

Can't-miss players miss too frequently to sell the farm for them, except in very rare circumstances.

 

[kicksavedave]

Fun quotes from McPhee, circa 2010, re Kuzy and bringing Russians over. He wasn't scared, neither is BMac.

McPhee said having Ovechkin on the Caps is like having a guarantee that Russian draft picks will eventually want to make their way to Washington.

"People are concerned about signing and drafting Russian players, but we just feel that what we're doing [with] Ovechkin, that he'll play in Washington," McPhee said. "We can do some things that other teams are afraid to do."

Nobody Does A Draft Better Than George McPhee

With one wink of the eye, Washington Capitals General Manager George McPhee may have just pulled another fast one on the NHL.

dc.sbnation.com

 

[Roshi]

Michkov isn't Bedard. He may have the talent, but their situations are entirely different. Michkov isn't in North America. Has never played in North America. And won't be in North America for years. That alone makes the comparison moot.

Thats not my point.

I would not. In hindsight, would you have done Kane + Stamkos/Doughty + 8 OA in the 2009 draft for Tavares?

Can't-miss players miss too frequently to sell the farm for them, except in very rare circumstances.

Thats jumping into narrative and putting the hindsight on your side. Slafkovsky is nowhere close to Stammer.

To bounce it back the same way, would you do Taylor Hall+Doughty+8th for Auston Matthews? Its close. I propably would.

Edit. And anyways, lets not get stuck to this hyperbole. Caps dont have 2 1st overalls anyways it was just for fun.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Alex Semin didn’t produce nearly to the extent that Michkov has. Michkov has produced like Malkin and Ovechkin. Neither of those guys had too much issue coming over. You’re making the case that they really shouldn't draft any Europeans because they might not adjust well. Kind of silly if you ask me.

No one is a sure thing but the idea is to make the best bet possible. Michkov’s numbers suggest his ceiling is incredibly high and that there’s a very good chance that ceiling will be met. I don’t like the idea of passing on that possibility unless they decide they want to go all-in on Ovechkin’s final years. I’d be ok with that as the other option. Besides, they should be trading Tom Wilson anyways so they’ll get their young talent or draft picks back with that transaction. It fits together like a nice puzzle!

Anyone can fail. It’s not a convincing argument to say Michkov might fail and that’s why they shouldn’t give up future draft capital for him if necessary. Being risk-averse is a good strategy if you’re in your 50s and managing your portfolio. If you’re lucky enough to have a portfolio. I’m not. I lost it all buying a picture of an ape. But being risk-averse managing a hockey team is just another way of saying you have a loser’s mentality.

It abso-f’ing-lutely is a valid reason why they should not give up what is more likely to be extremely valuable draft capital in 24/25. If he’s that damn good, those in front of us will not trade their pick unless we gut ourselves in the process.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Fun quotes from McPhee, circa 2010, re Kuzy and bringing Russians over. He wasn't scared, neither is BMac.

Nobody Does A Draft Better Than George McPhee

With one wink of the eye, Washington Capitals General Manager George McPhee may have just pulled another fast one on the NHL.

dc.sbnation.com

He also thought he was smarter than the rest of the league and that the Caps would be poised to scoop up all those juicy free agents nobody else could afford….wrong.

Teams pass on good players all the time.

Except you’re suggesting he’ll be great, a probable HOFer, not just “good”.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Thats not my point.



In this excercise MM wasnt compared to Kane, but to a tier above that.

And i have my doubts for Slaf becoming anywhere close to Stamkos-level. But we’ll see hindsight.

Edit. And anyways, lets not get stuck to this hyperbole. Caps dont have 2 1st overalls anyways

You asked about Bedard. Tavares had Bedard-levels of hype. Kane and Stamkos were the two previous 1 OAs to Tavares. (I included Doughty for the defenseman comparison)

My point is, even with a draft profile like Bedard, trading the last two first overalls looks absurd. For one that might not quite be Bedard, and has additional questions about availability, it's insane.

 

[Calicaps]

Alex Semin didn’t produce nearly to the extent that Michkov has. Michkov has produced like Malkin and Ovechkin. Neither of those guys had too much issue coming over. You’re making the case that they really shouldn't draft any Europeans because they might not adjust well. Kind of silly if you ask me.

No one is a sure thing but the idea is to make the best bet possible. Michkov’s numbers suggest his ceiling is incredibly high and that there’s a very good chance that ceiling will be met. I don’t like the idea of passing on that possibility unless they decide they want to go all-in on Ovechkin’s final years. I’d be ok with that as the other option. Besides, they should be trading Tom Wilson anyways so they’ll get their young talent or draft picks back with that transaction. It fits together like a nice puzzle!

Anyone can fail. It’s not a convincing argument to say Michkov might fail and that’s why they shouldn’t give up future draft capital for him if necessary. Being risk-averse is a good strategy if you’re in your 50s and managing your portfolio. If you’re lucky enough to have a portfolio. I’m not. I lost it all buying a picture of an ape. But being risk-averse managing a hockey team is just another way of saying you have a loser’s mentality.

That's ridiculous. I have no problem drafting Europeans. They should absolutely draft Michkov at 8 if he's there. Hell, they should move up to get him if the cost is low. But they should not destroy their draft potential for the next 2 years to do that.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Another week of draft rumors.

Will anyone have a better pick to offer then #8 I doubt the Habs would want to fall back much further then that.

 

[Roshi]

You asked about Bedard. Tavares had Bedard-levels of hype. Kane and Stamkos were the two previous 1 OAs to Tavares. (I included Doughty for the defenseman comparison)

My point is, even with a draft profile like Bedard, trading the last two first overalls looks absurd. For one that might not quite be Bedard, and has additional questions about availability, it's insane.

Edited my post above. But ill reply

You put the hindsight on your side on this one looking for suitable twirl. Why not pick Taylor Hall or Nugent-Hopkins or Yakupov when looking at first overalls. Id put atleast Slafkovsky more into this basket, than for the all-star picks category like Stammer.

And if we go there how many first overalls would be ridiculous to trade for Ovechkin, in hindsight? Would Fleury+Nash+8th be ridiculous?

Not all draft years are equal, and what im looking early it looks like ’24 atleast isnt close as good as this years, especially from top to down.

And as stated above it was hyperbole for fun, not to start an argument over it. Caps do not have first overalls for 24 & 25, and for the sake of it, if we had i would be opposed to trade those for Michkov

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Edited my post above. But ill reply

You put the hindsight on your side on this one looking for suitable twirl. Why not pick Taylor Hall or Nugent-Hopkins or Yakupov when looking at first overalls. Id put atleast Slafkovsky more into this basket, than for the all-star picks category like Stammer. How many first overalls would be ridiculous to trade for Ovechkin, in hindsight?

Not all draft years are equal, and what im looking early it looks like ’24 atleast isnt close as good as this years, especially from top to down.

And as stated above it was hyperbole for fun, not to start an argument over it. Caps do not have first overalls for 24 & 25, and for the sake of it, if we had i would be opposed to trade those for Michkov

Not yet….but is it really a stretch that they won’t be in the lottery again with a chance, maybe even better chances in those years?

 

[Acallabeth]

And as stated above it was hyperbole for fun, not to start an argument over it. Caps do not have first overalls for 24 & 25, and for the sake of it, if we had i would be opposed to trade those for Michkov

Yeah, reports say that those Misa-Misa and Malkin Celebrity guys might be good

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Edited my post above. But ill reply

You put the hindsight on your side on this one looking for suitable twirl. Why not pick Taylor Hall or Nugent-Hopkins or Yakupov when looking at first overalls. Id put atleast Slafkovsky more into this basket, than for the all-star picks category.

Not all draft years are equal, and what im looking early it looks like ’24 atleast isnt close as good as this years, especially from top to down.

And as stated above it was hyperbole for fun, not to start an argument over it. Caps do not have first overalls for 24 & 25.

There have been four other guys in the last 30 years with hype on Bedard's level, and he's clearly not on Crosby or McDavid's level. Tavares and Daigle are the other ones. I could have went Daigle to really hammer home the point, but I chose Tavares because he seems more comparable.

I didn't pick Hall, RNH, or Yakupov because they weren't close to Bedard-level prospects. The 1st OAs preceding Tavares can't be manipulated. It's fact. It went Kane-Stamkos-Tavares.

If it was hyperbole, I assume you're backing off of it and don't actually believe it?

For all we know, the Caps *might* have first overalls for 24 & 25 -- that's kind of the entire point. I'm not confident they can get out of this contract mess they're in to significantly improve.

 

[Roshi]

Not yet….but is it really a stretch that they won’t be in the lottery again with a chance, maybe even better chances in those years?

Tbh i expect us to have pick #32 in ’24 draft.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

That's ridiculous. I have no problem drafting Europeans. They should absolutely draft Michkov at 8 if he's there. Hell, they should move up to get him if the cost is low. But they should not destroy their draft potential for the next 2 years to do that.

Didn't you know? All Europeans are in a similar geopolitical situation, and all European leagues have had similar standards for NHL transfers. There's not an outlier country among them that's hurt the draft stock of its prospects for decades.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Tbh i expect us to have pick #32 in ’24 draft.

Good one….lol.…

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Good one….lol.…

Pretty easy when you're trading up from 36.

 

[twabby]

Didn't you know? All Europeans are in a similar geopolitical situation, and all European leagues have had similar standards for NHL transfers. There's not an outlier country among them that's hurt the draft stock of its prospects for decades.

And what NHL team is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this imbalance?

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

And what NHL team is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this imbalance?

And as such, shouldn't pay a king's ransom to move up?

 

[Roshi]

There have been four other guys in the last 30 years with hype on Bedard's level, and he's clearly not on Crosby or McDavid's level. Tavares and Daigle are the other ones. I could have went Daigle to really hammer home the point, but I chose Tavares because he seems more comparable.

I didn't pick Hall, RNH, or Yakupov because they weren't close to Bedard-level prospects. The 1st OAs preceding Tavares can't be manipulated. It's fact. It went Kane-Stamkos-Tavares.

If it was hyperbole, I assume you're backing off of it and don't actually believe it?

For all we know, the Caps *might* have first overalls for 24 & 25 -- that's kind of the entire point. I'm not confident they can get out of this contract mess they're in to significantly improve.

I have no idea how this works but Michkov have been hyped to be the next Ovechkin. I dont think he will be, but by your hype-o-meter why cant i use Ovechkin draft (for Fleury/Nash/8th=Alexandre Picard) and have to settle for Tavares?

And thats not even considering that Tavares might easily end up being the best player of them all, Bedard/Slaf/Power/8th. Prime Bajamas was pretty good. Though id bet Bedard is a real thing, but you never know as the Daigles hindsightly prove.

Anyways why do i need to back down, hyperbole or not? Id rather just move on. Lets do that