2023-24 Roster Thread 2: The Days Get Longer Edition

[tnfrs]

In the past decade, 38 Flyers have scored 19+ goals in a season. Tippet's 11.7 S% in 22-23 ranks 26th. It certainly doesn't seem like an outlier season for a player who was only 23.

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he also was playing way down the lineup in Florida which didnt help, once he got bigger minutes here his adjustment to top line competition was pretty seamless. tipper was legit one of the most consistent last year

 

[Striiker]

Moving up the lineup makes scoring easier, not harder.

 

[tnfrs]

Moving up the lineup makes scoring easier, not harder.

how many goals should a 2nd line winger score?

 

[Striiker]

how many goals should a 2nd line winger score?

Anything less than 28 is unacceptable.

 

[tnfrs]

Anything less than 28 is unacceptable.

lol maybe another year in the A will help him find his game

 

[wankstifier]

He had a sudden outlier jump to 11.7%, which was a 64% increase over the year before and well outside his career shooting percentage range. It's a major reason why I think we should have sold him high.

His S% was 7.9% in 21-22, 11.7% in 22-23. That's a 48% increase, if you want to measure it that way.

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Frost's S% went from 5.9% to 12.3%.

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<10% seems really low for a forward, especially for one who supposedly has a good shot.

 

[VladDrag]

What do you guys expect from Tippett? Has he pretty much hit his upside? Does his skill scream decent second line winger or is there more there?

Tippett is a unique skater, and I'm very excited to see how he plays next year.

He was visually a much better player last year, was consistently on his skates making plays through the neutral zone. He worked hard off the puck, even if he wasn't effective, you could still see the motor. His speed both with and without the puck was extremely impressive.

That translated to very consistent offensive zone entry data, and what's more was that he was able to turn many of those entries into chances. He basically lead the league in entries w/ chances (according to All Three Zones tracking data). Controlled entries are something the Flyers are not very good at, so his ability to gain entry to the offensive zone helps the team a lot. My concern is however that he won't be able to sustain that quality of entry for the years to come.

A flaw of his game that I believe will prevent him from being a top 6 player is his in-zone passing/playmaking. He's shown he's able to get the puck into the zone effectively, but once there, he's not as strong of a player. In other words, he kind of goes MIA in the offensive zone once the cycle begins. This is not to say he can't get better in this regard, but it's never been a strength of his in lower levels, so the chances that he develops this part of his game is not very likely.

In terms of production, there's some information to suggest a slight increase (poor finishing from high danger areas), and there is information to suggest a slight decrease (excessively high shooting percentage from low danger areas). He also had career best individual sh% and on-ice sh%. It's always possible that continues, but I don't know how likely it is to bet on that.

The other 'issue' with Tippett is that he was effectively given top line minutes to produce the way that he did. Assuming TK stays healthy and Atkinson returns to the lineup, adding Brink and Foerster to the mix, it's likely that Tippett won't average 17 mins/game this upcoming year.


Bottom line, I don't think we'll see Tippett take a huge step forward in development. There's a lot that goes against that, but I guess we'll see. I also think the player he's turned into is a good middle 6 winger. I just don't want to end up giving him $5-6M per year for the next 6 years if there's not production.

 

[tnfrs]

Tippett is a unique skater, and I'm very excited to see how he plays next year.

He was visually a much better player last year, was consistently on his skates making plays through the neutral zone. He worked hard off the puck, even if he wasn't effective, you could still see the motor. His speed both with and without the puck was extremely impressive.

That translated to very consistent offensive zone entry data, and what's more was that he was able to turn many of those entries into chances. He basically lead the league in entries w/ chances (according to All Three Zones tracking data). Controlled entries are something the Flyers are not very good at, so his ability to gain entry to the offensive zone helps the team a lot. My concern is however that he won't be able to sustain that quality of entry for the years to come.

A flaw of his game that I believe will prevent him from being a top 6 player is his in-zone passing/playmaking. He's shown he's able to get the puck into the zone effectively, but once there, he's not as strong of a player. In other words, he kind of goes MIA in the offensive zone once the cycle begins. This is not to say he can't get better in this regard, but it's never been a strength of his in lower levels, so the chances that he develops this part of his game is not very likely.

In terms of production, there's some information to suggest a slight increase (poor finishing from high danger areas), and there is information to suggest a slight decrease (excessively high shooting percentage from low danger areas). He also had career best individual sh% and on-ice sh%. It's always possible that continues, but I don't know how likely it is to bet on that.

The other 'issue' with Tippett is that he was effectively given top line minutes to produce the way that he did. Assuming TK stays healthy and Atkinson returns to the lineup, adding Brink and Foerster to the mix, it's likely that Tippett won't average 17 mins/game this upcoming year.


Bottom line, I don't think we'll see Tippett take a huge step forward in development. There's a lot that goes against that, but I guess we'll see. I also think the player he's turned into is a good middle 6 winger. I just don't want to end up giving him $5-6M per year for the next 6 years if there's not production.

17 minutes a night is middle of the lineup minutes, theres some good points regarding entries but he wasnt lining up on the 1st line all season which is worth noting. I think after this season we'll have a better sample size those first two years were pretty short and theres always growing pains for rookies, not to make excuses for him underperforming because numbers dont lie, but if he can improve his numbers from the last year again hes going to make a strong case for a new deal

 

[VladDrag]

17 minutes a night is middle of the lineup minutes, theres some good points regarding entries but he wasnt lining up on the 1st line all season which is worth noting. I think after this season we'll have a better sample size those first two years were pretty short and theres always growing pains for rookies, not to make excuses for him underperforming because numbers dont lie, but if he can improve his numbers from the last year again hes going to make a strong case for a new deal

No it's not middle of the lineup minutes and yes he was deployed like top line players.

Below is a snippet of his TOI/GP. You can see he was given more than 14 min per game at ES (puts him in top line deployment), and just about 2 min per game on the PP (top pp deployment).

 

[Striiker]

No it's not middle of the lineup minutes and yes he was deployed like top line players.

Below is a snippet of his TOI/GP. You can see he was given more than 14 min per game at ES (puts him in top line deployment), and just about 2 min per game on the PP (top pp deployment).

View attachment 730351

And played with our best center too.

 

[Beef Invictus]

His S% was 7.9% in 21-22, 11.7% in 22-23. That's a 48% increase, if you want to measure it that way.

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Frost's S% went from 5.9% to 12.3%.

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One of us is bad at math and I bet it's me, because I am bad at math

 

[Magua]

Shooting %s are so volatile, they're not worth predicting. Tippett came into the league, with shooting his key sub-NHL trait, and had remarkably bad finishing relative to xG. It was worrisome -- especially if you're not exactly multi-dimensional, your key trait(s) must translate.

It's entirely plausible Tippett just learned the nuances of finishing last year, along with a usage/confidence boost. To large degree, I can buy that narrative. But what I find interesting is he actually still underperformed his xG at 5v5. Only by a bit, and he's involved in the most scoring chances, so it doesn't have to be construed negatively as a whole. Farabee annually over-performs (a testament to his shooting), Konecny obviously had a sterling year, but even Frost was almost top 50 in the league in 5v5 iG above expected.

We know Tippett is something of a wild shooter. 6 of his 5v5 goals were above the right circle! Maybe his prime chances, going forward, are converted to balance things. But then I also go back to the Flyers having few good passers in the organization, and Tippett not necessarily being a guy who benefits either way, due to his individualistic/rush based game.

On the "Tippett can be a 40 goal guy topic," where Tippett over-performed was on the PP -- the PP that was also the worst in chance generating in the league. I also find it interesting that 4/8 of his PP goals were scored in what you'd label a bumper position. Now, you can say: oh, his finishing on the PP is good. But is it? It was very low event. He scored few goals from the left dot. He took few shots too -- those he took were generally far out. This goes to my point that he should not be set up there, and again, he registered ZERO primary PP assists. You could make an argument he should be playing the right side, if anything on a PP2. His finishing skews there all-situations. (I also included a spray chart for what a 40 goal scorer looks like.)

 

[FlyerNutter]

 

[tnfrs]

No it's not middle of the lineup minutes and yes he was deployed like top line players.

Below is a snippet of his TOI/GP. You can see he was given more than 14 min per game at ES (puts him in top line deployment), and just about 2 min per game on the PP (top pp deployment).

View attachment 730351

ya that makes sense now thanks

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Tippett is a unique skater, and I'm very excited to see how he plays next year.

He was visually a much better player last year, was consistently on his skates making plays through the neutral zone. He worked hard off the puck, even if he wasn't effective, you could still see the motor. His speed both with and without the puck was extremely impressive.

That translated to very consistent offensive zone entry data, and what's more was that he was able to turn many of those entries into chances. He basically lead the league in entries w/ chances (according to All Three Zones tracking data). Controlled entries are something the Flyers are not very good at, so his ability to gain entry to the offensive zone helps the team a lot. My concern is however that he won't be able to sustain that quality of entry for the years to come.

A flaw of his game that I believe will prevent him from being a top 6 player is his in-zone passing/playmaking. He's shown he's able to get the puck into the zone effectively, but once there, he's not as strong of a player. In other words, he kind of goes MIA in the offensive zone once the cycle begins. This is not to say he can't get better in this regard, but it's never been a strength of his in lower levels, so the chances that he develops this part of his game is not very likely.

In terms of production, there's some information to suggest a slight increase (poor finishing from high danger areas), and there is information to suggest a slight decrease (excessively high shooting percentage from low danger areas). He also had career best individual sh% and on-ice sh%. It's always possible that continues, but I don't know how likely it is to bet on that.

The other 'issue' with Tippett is that he was effectively given top line minutes to produce the way that he did. Assuming TK stays healthy and Atkinson returns to the lineup, adding Brink and Foerster to the mix, it's likely that Tippett won't average 17 mins/game this upcoming year.


Bottom line, I don't think we'll see Tippett take a huge step forward in development. There's a lot that goes against that, but I guess we'll see. I also think the player he's turned into is a good middle 6 winger. I just don't want to end up giving him $5-6M per year for the next 6 years if there's not production.

Thank you for this well spoken, nuanced, researched, and reasonable post! Sincerely. Now, if you can kindly f*** right out of here, that'd be great.

 

[deadhead]

Tippett is a unique skater, and I'm very excited to see how he plays next year.

He was visually a much better player last year, was consistently on his skates making plays through the neutral zone. He worked hard off the puck, even if he wasn't effective, you could still see the motor. His speed both with and without the puck was extremely impressive.

That translated to very consistent offensive zone entry data, and what's more was that he was able to turn many of those entries into chances. He basically lead the league in entries w/ chances (according to All Three Zones tracking data). Controlled entries are something the Flyers are not very good at, so his ability to gain entry to the offensive zone helps the team a lot. My concern is however that he won't be able to sustain that quality of entry for the years to come.

A flaw of his game that I believe will prevent him from being a top 6 player is his in-zone passing/playmaking. He's shown he's able to get the puck into the zone effectively, but once there, he's not as strong of a player. In other words, he kind of goes MIA in the offensive zone once the cycle begins. This is not to say he can't get better in this regard, but it's never been a strength of his in lower levels, so the chances that he develops this part of his game is not very likely.

In terms of production, there's some information to suggest a slight increase (poor finishing from high danger areas), and there is information to suggest a slight decrease (excessively high shooting percentage from low danger areas). He also had career best individual sh% and on-ice sh%. It's always possible that continues, but I don't know how likely it is to bet on that.

The other 'issue' with Tippett is that he was effectively given top line minutes to produce the way that he did. Assuming TK stays healthy and Atkinson returns to the lineup, adding Brink and Foerster to the mix, it's likely that Tippett won't average 17 mins/game this upcoming year.


Bottom line, I don't think we'll see Tippett take a huge step forward in development. There's a lot that goes against that, but I guess we'll see. I also think the player he's turned into is a good middle 6 winger. I just don't want to end up giving him $5-6M per year for the next 6 years if there's not production.

Tippett is a unique player, how much he's worth depends on incremental improvements in a number of areas, shooting accuracy and setting up goalies (he has the raw skill, release, velocity to be a high % shooter), defense, PK. He's never going to have the instincts to be a well rounded offensive forward, but his size, speed, energy and shot means he can be a high impact middle six forward playing a lot of minutes in various roles. If he develops into that player, he'd be worth $5-6M on a long term deal - an energy player who can create and score goals, flip the ice, create SH attempts on the PK, and snipe on the PP2.

 

[VladDrag]

Shooting %s are so volatile, they're not worth predicting. Tippett came into the league, with shooting his key sub-NHL trait, and had remarkably bad finishing relative to xG. It was worrisome -- especially if you're not exactly multi-dimensional, your key trait(s) must translate.

It's entirely plausible Tippett just learned the nuances of finishing last year, along with a usage/confidence boost. To large degree, I can buy that narrative. But what I find interesting is he actually still underperformed his xG at 5v5. Only by a bit, and he's involved in the most scoring chances, so it doesn't have to be construed negatively as a whole. Farabee annually over-performs (a testament to his shooting), Konecny obviously had a sterling year, but even Frost was almost top 50 in the league in 5v5 iG above expected.

I have looked at individual shooting metrics pretty extensively at the end of the season. Here are a few things I noted.

*The data I reviewed was from NST and only 5v5. It was only from last year. This is more of a back of the napkin type analysis.*

Last year, the better offensive players typically out produce their ixGF, and what is notable is that it’s it’s regardless of archetype. At the top, there are 'goal scorers' like McCann, Rantanen, Robertson, but there are also guys like Giroux, Panarin, Jack Hughes etc. The ability to significantly out produce the ixGF is an indicator of overall offensive ability. These guys at the top are also the guys who consistently carry a sh% greater than 10-11% in general. Also, the best offensive players in the world also out produce the model more than that the worst offensive players underperform it. In other words, it's a pretty good model for the majority of the NHL players.

When it comes to the Flyers, the three guys that outperformed their ixGF metric were TK, Farabee and Frost, in that order. They rank 44th, 50th, and 54th in forwards playing over 500min @ 5v5.

 

[VladDrag]

Tippett is a unique player, how much he's worth depends on incremental improvements in a number of areas, shooting accuracy and setting up goalies (he has the raw skill, release, velocity to be a high % shooter), defense, PK. He's never going to have the instincts to be a well rounded offensive forward, but his size, speed, energy and shot means he can be a high impact middle six forward playing a lot of minutes in various roles. If he develops into that player, he'd be worth $5-6M on a long term deal - an energy player who can create and score goals, flip the ice, create SH attempts on the PK, and snipe on the PP2.

My concern is that he doesn't have incremental improvements on an already career year.

I also dont think the player you described is a middle six forward (high impact, lots of minutes, various roles etc.). That is starting to venture into the top six effectiveness/usage.

I however say this, if he does take another step forward this year, or even replicate many of his results, I'd be more comfortable giving him a long term deal near 5M/year. $

 

[tnfrs]

I have looked at individual shooting metrics pretty extensively at the end of the season. Here are a few things I noted.

*The data I reviewed was from NST and only 5v5. It was only from last year. This is more of a back of the napkin type analysis.*

Last year, the better offensive players typically out produce their ixGF, and what is notable is that it’s it’s regardless of archetype. At the top, there are 'goal scorers' like McCann, Rantanen, Robertson, but there are also guys like Giroux, Panarin, Jack Hughes etc. The ability to significantly out produce the ixGF is an indicator of overall offensive ability. These guys at the top are also the guys who consistently carry a sh% greater than 10-11% in general. Also, the best offensive players in the world also out produce the model more than that the worst offensive players underperform it. In other words, it's a pretty good model for the majority of the NHL players.

When it comes to the Flyers, the three guys that outperformed their ixGF metric were TK, Farabee and Frost, in that order. They rank 44th, 50th, and 54th in forwards playing over 500min @ 5v5.

thats not great for a top line, thats like middle of the road 2nd liners
how far away from frost farabee and tk are our other forwards?

 

[VladDrag]

thats not great for a top line, thats like middle of the road 2nd liners
how far away from frost farabee and tk are our other forwards?

What’s not great for a top line? Being 44, 50, 54 if 383 forwards that played 500 min at 5v5 puts them between the 89th and 87th percentile.

Viewed another way, which isn’t a great way to look at it, there are 96 top line forwards (32teams x 3 players). Being ranking in the top 50 makes them about in the middle of the ‘top line’ cutoff number.

I should also note this stat is not the end all be all how players should be labeled. It’s just a quick view of goal scoring ability.

the only other player to out score his expected was Tippett, 0.55 over. All other players underperformed. Hayes was the worst.

 

[tnfrs]

What’s not great for a top line? Being 44, 50, 54 if 383 forwards that played 500 min at 5v5 puts them between the 89th and 87th percentile.

Viewed another way, which isn’t a great way to look at it, there are 96 top line forwards (32teams x 3 players). Being ranking in the top 50 makes them about in the middle of the ‘top line’ cutoff number.

I should also note this stat is not the end all be all how players should be labeled. It’s just a quick view of goal scoring ability.

the only other player to out score his expected was Tippett, 0.55 over. All other players underperformed. Hayes was the worst.

lol this is an example of my mental math skills at full throttle, in my head i was counting 32 teams instead of 96 top line players, so being 44 would have been outside the 32 top lines but ya your math checks out my bad my bad

 

[deadhead]

My concern is that he doesn't have incremental improvements on an already career year.

I also dont think the player you described is a middle six forward (high impact, lots of minutes, various roles etc.). That is starting to venture into the top six effectiveness/usage.

I however say this, if he does take another step forward this year, or even replicate many of his results, I'd be more comfortable giving him a long term deal near 5M/year. $

This is the reason Briere should be bridging all the young forwards, you need a couple years to get a read on whether they're flatlining or improving.
Tippett has upside, but whether he'll reach it??? Same can be said with Frost, great 2/3 of a season, but is that a fluke or a preview of things to come?

 

[tnfrs]

I think if we do anything else with our roster, we should get smaller. Heres a look at a potential roster in a few years if we eliminate all the tall mfers, just needs a few more grinders and bottom pair D but we can fit 2 guys to a bed on road trips and save some cash:

Travis Konecny - Morgan Frost - Matvei Michkov (frost is almost 6 feet he barely makes this team)
Cam Atkinson - Denver Barkey - Elliot Desnoyers
Olle Lycksell - JR Avon - Bobby Brink ksell

Emil Andrae - Victor Mete
Cam York - Ryan Ellis

 

[deadhead]

What’s not great for a top line? Being 44, 50, 54 if 383 forwards that played 500 min at 5v5 puts them between the 89th and 87th percentile.

Viewed another way, which isn’t a great way to look at it, there are 96 top line forwards (32teams x 3 players). Being ranking in the top 50 makes them about in the middle of the ‘top line’ cutoff number.

I should also note this stat is not the end all be all how players should be labeled. It’s just a quick view of goal scoring ability.

the only other player to out score his expected was Tippett, 0.55 over. All other players underperformed. Hayes was the worst.

That's why I use the median player as the cutoff for each line - you don't want first line players who are below average for 1st line players - you want players in the top half of that group, and so on down the line. If you can't land a top 10 scorer, you can still build a top line out of three players in the 20-40 range, b/c the line as a whole will probably be close or in to the top ten.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Construction worker team can’t find a top 10 scorer yet again?

Say it isn’t so