Heres my thoughts on the lineup, sorry im new but this is long as shit.
Hayes and Deangelo played their way off this team, they had to go. We can debate all day whos responsible for their value going down but they had just as much of a chance as anyone did to fix things and they both chose to play like shit when they were on the ice. Farabee by all accounts had a shit year too, Tortorella called him inconsistent and said he wasnt letting his surgery be an excuse to hide behind, but he also said he wasnt giving up on him, and Farabee ended the year alot stronger than he started and he worked at it all year. Thats what Torts is looking for. Thats what the next few years are for. Establishing the character of the team. Boston has it. Carolina has it. Team culture isnt just a bunch of guys that get along, its when everyone has a common goal and everybody is ripping their hearts out for each other to achieve it.
Attitudes win championship. Hard work wins championships. Torts forced everyone to show their character this year. We know more or less now whos committed to winning. Konecny Frost Cates and Tippett had great years, and York had a great year too. These are players that would be hard to replace even if we received more value back in picks. And theses next 6 or 7 years are there prime years.
This year, with no other additions likely coming, it gives us some wiggle room with lineups. Foerster im hoping makes the team out of camp. Brink, Desnoyers, Tuomaala all will get a look at some point. Attard, Ginning, Andrae, and Grans will all get some time. We can carry a 23 man roster, so I wont be surprised when Deslauriers and Lacyznski sit for handfuls of games at a time so we can bring up some prospects. Marc Staal might also sit some games. He wasnt signed to be our number 1 guy, he was signed to be a veteran presence and to mentor.
The Phantoms are going to be stacked with tons of players we've drafted recently and we still need to see what we have there before we know what we need for the bottom half of our roster. Its possible Foerster is the only one of our current prospects drafted pre-2023 that ever plays meaningful games for us. But this year gives us an opportunity to pressure test them the same way Frost and Tippett and York were tested last year. The Phantoms squeaked into the first round of the playoffs, and they had half a lineup of plugs. Theres only a few plugs left now, and they've brought in some younger plugs and the rest will mostly be homegrown and drafted prospects. There will be an environment waiting for future prospects to jump into thats competitive. It says alot that Foerster and Desnoyers were the Phantoms leading scorers as 21 year olds, and it will make it an easier transition if a guy like Cutter Gauthier spends time there and he has players that can keep up. This is the kind of club we need to be to develop players, and this is how we maximize the value of every player, but it takes actual patience.
The new management is pretty committed to making the Flyers an organization that develops prospects. John Leclair and Patrick Sharp were brought in on the development side, and Sharp has said in interviews he wants the Phantoms to be like 2005 Phantoms team that won the Calder Cup during the lockout with Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, RJ Umberger, and Patrick Sharp all playing together. Thats what we all thought Hextall was trying to do, but he kept drafting players that turned out shit. And the players he drafted well didnt spend any time in the AHL ( Sanheim Konecny and Provorov). Who knows how much different this team would have been over the last 5 years if Nolan Patrick hit his ceiling and if German Rubtsov, Jay Obrien, Pascal Laberge, and Isaac Ratcliffe developed? Thats 2 top 20 picks, 2 top 40 picks, and a 2nd overall that were just lost in the ether. 5 players that all had questions marks, that were high upside guys but flawed. 5 guys that couldnt stick at the pro level for various reasons that we didnt get anything for. We had a string of really really really bad luck and after all that trouble we've had drafting people still want to trade Konecny for 2 firsts. Theres no value in the later first round picks or early 2nd round picks, a 20th to 32nd overall selection has less than 50% chance of becoming an NHLer, its not a how you rebuild a team.
You cant expect every 1st round pick to be ready at 18, even Claude Giroux went back to junior for 2 years. 2 more years in junior and he dominated the whole time. Then it was two years up and down between AHL and NHL before he finally played his first full NHL season. He was a rookie in 2010 when we had our run and that was his coming out party. Imagine having a team waiting for Michkov thats almost ready to do that? Our core guys will be right in the middle of their primes, giving Gauthier and Michkov a bit of a cushion, but we need to have established players here before either arrive. Farabee Frost and Tippett arent going to drag us into the playoffs on their own but that looks like a really really good 2nd scoring line. Our top 6 right now is really a middle 6, but its a great middle 6. Add Michkov and Gauthier and a legit 1C and suddenly our top 3 lines look super good, thats depth scoring. We need a legit top line center, we don't need to rebuild the forwards. We already have the depth scoring, and prospects already in the system that are projected to be our lethal scorers.
Our defense however, is atrocious. It might not have improved at all, but Fletcher left us the most shit in this diaper. Risto 5x5 is brutal, Sanheim 8x6.25 looks just as bad but longer. I want to be positive for Sanheim to have a better year but if he cant be a dependable 2nd pairing hes probably easier to move than Risto and playing him might help us reach the very bottom of the standings. Risto actually had some amazing metrics playing with Seeler, but Seeler isnt a long term option either. At this point, I feel like we've seen everything were going to see from the current defense and the sooner we move on from them the better. The caps likely to go up quite substantially in 24 and 25 and I wont speculate possible deals or trading partners but if either can be moved it would be great but we need to be realistic about what we can get back for bad defenseman. We cant expect that theres other GMs as dumb as Fletcher out there. If all we get is a handful of picks, who cares.
Best case scenario Sanheim becomes a reliable middle pair defenseman for us. York shows all the signs of being a top pair defenseman, but he will need a partner and its unlikely we have one in the pipeline. This is another position we are going to have to fill by trade or free agency, but the next 3 years theres some solid defense options that will be UFAs. Theres really nothing we can do with the defense until theres a market for Sanheim and Risto, and if they havent improved once the season opens lets move them asap and let Attard and Ginning play those minutes. If we're gonna be shit, lets be shit for cheap because if we can win the lottery that solves the 1C or 1D problem. The deals for Sanheim and Risto dont need to be amazing if theyre not going to factor into the future. The same can be said of Cam Atkinson, hes only got 2 years left at a reasonable hit if he can play the whole year healthy someone will ask about him at the deadline. But these guys are all gone by the time things get fun hopefully.
Our GAA was average relative to the league but we had the benefit of Hart and Ersson played really good in his handful of games. We only had 220 goals which was one of the lowest totals but only 50 goals short of the average. Vegas only had around 270 goals for in the regular season for an example. So we were pretty much short 25 goals each from Couturier and Atkinson, who are set to play this year. We would have been right in the mix of playoff teams with 270 goals for and 270 against, all other things being equal.
Of the Flyers 220 goals, 105 were scored between Konecny 30, Farabee 15, Tippett 27, Frost 19 and Cates 13 and if we throw in Laughton's 18 we have roughly 125 goals from this core.
Hayes Deangelo van Riemsdyk had 41 combined goals Provorov also had 6 and I dont think the players we've added will make up that difference.
Even if Couturier and Atkinson both come back and score those 25 each it wont matter, we just arent going to be a high enough scoring team to be successful. But we will score.
Even if everything goes right we're going to be one of the lowest scoring teams in the league.
We're gonna lose games no matter what we do at this point, so until we can move Risto/Sanheim etc I just wanna see everybody play with some jam. Farabee and Frost are both 20 goal scorers already, Konecny was on pace for 40 and Tippett was on pace for 30 but he missed 8 games. Farabee Frost Tippett Konecny Cates York are worth building around. Some of them are going to improve alot next year but I dont see any of them regressing.
Drafting Michkov accelerates any timelines that management had in mind before the draft. it puts us that much closer to having a legitimate top line. Cutter Gauthier had a phenomenal year playing 3 different levels of competition. He had a monster world championship against men and showed that he can be a go-to scoring threat against NHLers. Suddenly now all we need is a top line center. And it won't have to be a Stamkos or a McDavid. With wingers like Gauthier and Michkov a perfect fit would be a defensive minded responsible center who can win faceoffs and board battles, and if we haven't developed one ourselves the asking price wont be as hard to swallow to acquire one later than it will be for a stud center. A team like Buffalo might have too much Center depth in a few years and we're gonna have extra RWs. We don't know what the landscape is going to look like in the next 4 years, but some teams we dont expect might be sellers when we might buyers.
Michkov is a talent. He played against men all year at 17, he could still find another inch but right now he looks like hes a bit under 5'11 and thicker than a snicker. Hes a first overall talent and if he wasnt on a KHL contract he would have went 2nd overall at the latest, teams just dont like the idea of not having input on development for those few years. It didnt help that Carlson Smith and Fantili are all centers either. But watch out for those eventual grudge matches between Philly and Chicago, those are gonna be some showdowns for sure. We drafted him without having to trade away pieces of our future. If Briere did nothing else we still walked away with a potential superstar which is the outcome the tankers and the keepers both wanted. Since the draft the moves he's made have given us a more cohesive core group, while eliminating players whos only contribution we'll miss is offense we dont need right now. The players he added have never been offensive contributors but theyve always been huge on character, and nobody hes added is signed long term. Its low risk low reward but big payday if we can flip them at a deadline, either way its win/win. Danny has ensured that we are going be another bottom team, and we dont have to tank. All of our core guys will have the best opportunity for development, we're just gonna get out scored most nights while we're missing the top line talent.
In 4 years Konecny will be the oldest at 30, frost/tippett/cates 28, farabee 27, york 26, foerster 25, gauthier 23, michkov/bonk 22. If Sanheim is still around he'll only be 31 and if he's still around in 4 years it will be because he's earned it and with Bonk projected as a lock for a second unit we're really not missing that many pieces. If we win the lottery, fanfriggintastic, Celebrini isnt a generational talent but would probably be the perfect fit to grow between Gauthier and Michkov. If we don't win the lottery, this year is the year of the defensemen, theres 5 in the top 10 that could all be game breakers. Bonk is going to be playing with Sam Dickinson this year in London, and thats who im getting excited about, because its a more realistic outcome than winning the lottery. Dickinson looks like the real deal potential 1D who has a bomb for a shot, great size at 6'3 can skate like the wind and hes defensively sound. Plays for Bonk's team the London Knights they might both play for Canada at the world jrs but you can see Dickinson at the Hlinka in a few weeks. If we're able to add a 1D through the 2024 draft it would be just as big a blessing as Celebrini and he'll just be hitting his stride on this timeline. Itll look something this in 4 years.
Gauthier - 1C - Michkov
Farabee - Frost - Tippett
Konecny - Cates - Foerster
Couturier
York - 2024 draft D
Bonk - Sanheim
Couturier is only listed on the 4th line because his age, in 4 years he's gonna be 34 and will still be under contract. Thats a big cap hit if he cant play 1C minutes. If hes healthy enough to be moved to a contender and theres a buyer in the next few years they might ask him to wave his movement clause We'll have no other dead cap or retention spots used in 4 years, but we may still use that on Sanheim/Risto. So we still have some valuable pieces to offer teams at deadlines, we just might not see movement until the cap goes up next year and possibly the year after that. Theres no need to rush and theres no need to run anyone out of town. This is all assuming none of these players take enormous leaps in development and go beast mode. Maybe im taking liberties projecting Gauthier and Michkov, but not by much. Michkov and Gauthier are both top 5 draft talent and anytime youre tanking or rebuilding thats what youre hoping to build around. If we do nothing else but roll with what we have and sell off a few pieces over the next couple seasons, we could very easily have another few top 5 picks.
Other than the above lineup, if they sign a single player to a long term deal in the next two years it will be too soon. If we do nothing else we will finish bottom five the next two years, and if we can move couturier/risto/sanheim for picks at any point dead last is a good possibility. We will have enough prospects that we can plug holes ourselves the rest of the way and if we havent found our 4th line and bottom pair guys in our pool by then we will have so many trade chips because I havent even talked about goaltender depth yet. Brink Andrae and Zamula might be on someones radar if they dont earn a roster spot soon, also Attard and Ginning. Ethan Samson, Alex Bump and Devin Kaplin are a few names that people might come asking about by the end of this year but i think Kaplin could be a legit bottom 6er for us. Alex Bump is a natural LW and will make waves this year. Ersson looks like hes going to be a solid option soon. Kolosov is very promising, and we drafted 2 other goalies this year that could develop.
We also have Carter Hart. And i dont think anything can be done until the hockey canada investigation details come out. If it doesnt clear his name idk what happens. But I think we've got ourselves prepared for the worst just in case.
Anything can happen between in 4 years though, injuries could mess the whole thing up, but if we just ride things out for a few years we're back in the conversation after a few prudent moves. Unless the right deal comes around, doing nothing is our best bet for the lowest finishes. Deadline deals and off season trades for picks, dont take any roster players back that cant come off the books in 3/4 years bonus points if theyre injured the whole time so they cant accidentally make us better. Any prospects we're offered are probably shit anyways, so we might as well pick them ourselves.